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Analysis on EUR/USD - Feedback welcomed

 
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bearclawz

Analysis on EUR/USD - Feedback welcomed

Hello,

Attached I have placed an analysis on the EUR/USD - looking at the bigger picture Daily + Weekly.

We can see EUR/USD is in a clear downtrend. However with that said we can see EUR/USD bottomed January 2017 with some beautiful bullish divergence using the Awesome Oscilator

We can see clear resistance at 1.0830 is also in confluence with dynamic resistance as per 166 & and 144 Emas and a 38.2 fibonacci measured from April 2016 top to January 2017 bottom.

Ill be looking to take small positions to the upside upon small pullback on the 1hour, then take a bigger position as price approaches the 1.0800 - 1.0850 area.

 

 

 

 

AttachmentSize
EURUSDTRADEPLAN.png275.54 KB
Sun, 01/22/2017 - 2:26pm
 
jamesfr

I would wait until it breaks the 4hr rising wedge before taking a short,I think there is room for a 150 to 200 move up if it dosen't break the upward channel

EURUSDH4.png
 
Elijah

Monser good plan to take the long, I expect big$ to continue to Offer EUR/USD all the way up into 1.08 could spike to 1.085, at which point, I'd bail on those longs and load up for the ride down into 1.0 by the end of the year, when we get our third rate increase on USD in december of this year EUR/usd will then hit 1.0 if not sooner if accelerated by quicker than expected inteterest rate hikes by FOMC, the reality is that trump already said that Yellen was holding down interest rates for political reasons, which means, obviously he thinks that rates should be higher, even though surely he also benefits in his life and business with lower interest rates. And now he is set to chnage much of the rules in place in the business marketplace and you bet your britches it will benefit his kids who are now running his businesses.

 
userfaith2009

Eur/Usd is one of my favorites to trade.

 
jamesfr

EURUSD Is still respecting that rising wedge,

EURUSDH4.png
 
willswebservice

It is 20:50 EST , the Current Price for EUR/USD is fluctuating between BID= 1.07355 and ASK= 1.07364,
But the M1 Chart has been at least 10 pips behind for 15 minutes at 1.07263 fluctuating by 2 pips either way.
Why is this such a big disparity /

 
jamesfr

EURUSD Has finally broken the wedge and retested ,the retest better viewed on the 1 hour

EURUSDH4.png EURUSDH1.png
 
jamesfr

After the false breakout it looks like the EURUSD is heading towards the 1.086 level where it should meet tough resistance,also the top of that wedge

EURUSDH4.png
 
jamesfr

buying up to 1.086 and have a sell order in a 1.086

 
jamesfr

I see the EURUSD rising to 1.075 (+100 pips) where I would be looking for a sell signal

EURUSDDaily.png
 
Shailesh Saxena

I think EUR/USD is currently in a consolidation phase (last wave up) and is getting ready to go down to about 0.95 level. I would wait for the weekly trend line to be broken before I take any long term long position.

 
jamesfr

It's in a weekly consolidation area after a strong downtrend and currently rejecting the lower level of the consolidation area
Plenty room up to hit 1.075

EURUSDWeekly.png EURUSDDaily.png
 
winstonroysmith

EUR/USD is still the most reliable currency pair up until now. I have in the past on a live account traded this pair for one week and was able to double my account in that one wk. I was making 120 pips every 12 hours. I lost the form because I tried to do the same thing with other pairs and it did not work. I change my strategy thinking that it was flawed because it, (the strategy) could not do it with those other pairs only to realized that it was not the strategy that was unreliable but the other currency pairs.

 
RiskyBusiness

EUR/USD has started long with HL and HH sequence on the Daily chart. It should go up to 1.08-1.0875. If it can make it back to the blue arrow and hold there I will go long.

EURUSD 031017.png
 
RiskyBusiness

EUR/USD started it's move today.

EURUSD 031517.png
 
drltrade

I looked at over three years of daily data on the EURUSD. AB=CD projection from January low is for 1.09740, however; there are some high volume and fib clusters to go through before reaching that point. 1.08720 appears to align with previous analysis on this thread.

 
drltrade

Still long term bullish but here is a screenshot showing many TPO / Volume Profiles. Pullback to 1.074 area very possible. Fib 38% retracement is 1.699 area but no real volume really traded there historically.

EURUSD [M]  #1 2017-03-24  00_35_35.764.png
 
hakchinoy

E/U is forming a D1 inverted H&S; E/G is forming a D1 bull flag; and other patterns are forming off D1 or W1 for several other historically, highly correlated pairs. Based upon my own experience, whenever something like that happens, the MMs are telegraphing to their peers (and anyone else who's astute enough to read these tea leaves) that these moves will happen with strong conviction.

Stated another way, USD will weaken (the main theme) and EUR will strengthen (a subplot) overall--at least during the amount of time that it will take for all of these correlated patterns to complete.

"Ill be looking to take small positions to the upside upon small pullback on the 1hour, then take a bigger position as price approaches the 1.0800 - 1.0850 area."

The neckline of that inverted H&S coincides with the area in which you're planning to scale into a larger position. Based upon that fact along with all of the other correlations, that plan sounds like a pretty good idea to me. Incidentally, the measured move of that inverted H&S is roughly 450 pips.

 
triguylm1

Did anyone take into account this coming weeks health care dynamics pushing the volatility to extra ordinary amount.
March 28 is consumer confidence reports
March 29 is pending home sales
March 30 is the "DGP" data
March 31 is the consumer sentiment.

There is a strong resistance level at 1.08175 may show as 1.08250 on Monday.

I plan to take this one short for the night trading and use a trail stop all the way down to 1.07605 or more if the trend continues down.

 
drltrade

I thought I would update the profile chart I posted earlier. I hope this helps. I have highlighted in grey some potential retracement areas.

EURUSD [M]  #1 2017-04-04  12_43_41.140.png
 
Andy10e6

I've been taking this down and will get out at 1.064 (just another 15 pips to go). Then I will look for buying signals at that level or lower and ride it all the way up to 1.082, depending on the volume and momentum in the buying signals.

 
hthakur99

I'm targeting selling EURUSD at around 1.0760 (keeping the anticipated anxiety around FR elections this week). EURUSD has no business trading this higher than that.

 
drltrade

EURUSD finally moved back to retracement levels. Here is an updated chart.

EURUSD [M]  #1 2017-04-20  12_45_00.915.png
 
donruadh@gmail.com

Trying to read the longer term charts. On the attached D1 chart, would you consider the Pin 3 days back as a sell signal with the wedge building? I would welcome your help.

eurusd d1 22 apr 2017.png
 
88rene

guys just keep in mind about elections in France this weekend. Euro will dance depending the winner, get ready for wild priceaction coming coming week. EUR/USD EUR/GBP EUR/CAD
And in autumn elections in Germany...

 
triguylm1

Eurozone inflation data is showing an increase of 7.5% over last year at this time. The next Euro Central Bank Meeting is on June 8. There is speculation of implementing higher rates to cool inflation. Not sure what the market will do this May going forward, but the trend is definitely showing uptrend since this news came out on yesterdays ECB Meeting (April 28).

 
donruadh@gmail.com

I caught this on Forex Factory this morning re the longer term outlook.
https://www.efxnews.com/story/36001/eurusd-get-ready-its-first-one-discr...

Might be of interest to watch over the summer.

 
ray.worsfold

Hi Denis,

Interesting link. Thank you for posting it.

 
foolszone

EUR/USD on D1 shows stochastics rebounding from oversold level. Friday's strong showing may carry it passing through
immediate resistance at 1.1 to 1.12 then 1.13. If no follow through on Monday then 1.0838 must hold or else fall to 1.73 is very likely.

 
chasmon1

I like the EUR/USD, I'm going long until I start getting consistently stopped out without a profit. I see only the 7D as still in a downtrend and I think it will move to an uptrend soon

 
heidi

Forming double top, at beginning of Asian session. See 15 min chart. Plus EU has gone nearly twice it's ATR today. Maybe finally exhausted and good for some scalps down.

 
brianj2

E/U definitely had an uptrend over last week. I'm seeing bearish behavior. I guess wait and see.

 
bearclawz

Hey guys did anyone ride this EUR/USD to the upside?

 
myronw204

yes it got me to gold

 
ruiqueiros704

I was surprised that the EUR/USD almost hitting the price at 1.2100 and broke it's last recent high of 1.2070.I was analyzing and wondering is it a move to the upside breaking past 1.2100 mark or make a bounce back to the 1.1700 zone.

 
Defender30

I am not a technician by any stretch of imagination, but I see a very obvious uptrend channel on a daily EURUSD chart. Until this channel is broken I am riding it. Feel free to call me an idiot.

 
bearclawz

Thats right I agree were in uptrend - however I am banking on some temporary Dollar strength with all this optimism given the Trump administration and their tax reforms.

 
Defender30

Read on FXsteet.com and sharing with the community. EUR/USD is forming head-and- shoulder top. ( look at weekly). Now it is forming the right shoulder. Just a food for thoughts, but I think it's worth watching.

 
jackkenn

10-22-2017 Bearish on EUR/USD

 
Elijah

ya think?>

Capture.JPG
 
pauljfitzpatrick

EUR/USD is trying to bounce again from this 1.1730 area and put in a double bottom. But if this zone breaks it could head to 1.14 ultimately with a brief stop near the old pivot low at 1.1665 area.

 
Tigger Bee

It does look as though it is preparing to bounce on the weekly. Looking back for a bit of structure, there's a couple touch-points around 1.162 and this will be the first potential pullback to that price level. Using MTP's indicator, I see a divergence where price looks to continue Grey histogram) once the reflection comes back into alignment and the longer term Guppy MA's are still expanding making a bounce probable.

Time will tell, but there is an opportunity coming and not too far away. I'll be watching :-)

EURUSD-10-23-2017.PNG
 
jldavid

I think the opportunity is to the downside. Besides the obvious head and shoulders pattern, the weekly chart looks like it completed a 3-wave expanded flat pattern from the March 2015 bottom on September 8th. The target from the head and shoulders pattern lines up with 50% retracement from the January bottom and a 1.618 Fib extension of the first wave to the downside in the 1.1217-1.1239 area. There is also support around 1.1423 and 1.1010. I'll have to re-evaluate if the EURUSD breaks above 1.1725.

Right now, my charts are telling me to be bullish on the dollar - at least over the next few weeks. By that I mean that my methods are telling me that the probabilities are stronger to the upside than the downside in the dollar. I fully expect at least another 10% to the upside in the dollar before the party is over. Mr. Market will do whatever he wants. This past week I made a LOT of pips shorting every upward spike in the EURUSD and going long every downward spike in the USDJPY. Next week, who knows? YMMV.

EURUSD Daily.jpg
 
Elijah

its surely a sell LT heading into YE (yearend) but not at these levels!

Capture.JPG
 
triguylm1

Good advice Elijah, The D7 chart shows more room to continue the long term bullish trend of 2017. Usually, it takes a couple of years to reverse a long term trend like this one. No one can predict if the Euro will continue gaining strength, and the dollar seems to be flat. Also, If oil continues to strengthen, that would push inflation, and increase interest rates in the US. In my opinion.

 
Apteryx

Hi Guys.

I have been creating and executing some SQL Database transactions using the last 10 Years of M1 from the EUR/USD. I thought I would share what I have found so far:

Total of 65,000 M1 Bars (28 May 2007 thru 1 December 2017)

31,960 Bear Bars ( 49.16% )
32,293 Bull Bars ( 49.68% )
747 Equal Bars ( 1.11% ) (Open and Close are the same)

14,975 Two Bears in a row ( 23.00% )
6,855 Three Bears ( 10.50% )
3.063 Four Bears ( 4.7% )
1,357 Five Bears ( 2.0% )
848 Six Bears ( 1.3% )
467 Seven Bears ( 0.7% )
281 Eight Bears ( 0.4% )
161 Nine Bears ( 0.25% )
88 Ten Bears ( 0.13% )

15,293 Two Bulls in a row ( 23.53% )
7,054 Three Bulls ( 10.85% )
3,155 Four Bulls ( 4.85% )
1 420 Five Bulls ( 2.18% )
886 Six Bulls ( 1.36% )
509 Seven Bulls ( 0.78% )
305 Eight Bulls ( 0.47% )
169 Nine Bulls ( 0.26% )
104 Ten Bulls ( 0.16% )

1,391 Bear Enfolding Candle
1,360 Bull Enfolding Candle

13,178 Bull then Gaps Up
12,828 Bear then Gaps Up
284 Bull then Gaps Down (This is unusual - I checked it a few times and it seems to be right!)
12,809 Bear then Gaps Down

What statistics would be interesting to anybody here ?

Regards
David Shields

 
Tigger Bee

Hi David,
I always thought it would be of interest to layer the data into the Microsoft Power BI tool and see what the predictive forecasting would be presented. The tool also has a one-click button to take a look at the data and come up worth its own questions. Kind of like asking questions on things we'd never even think of.

Have you ever dabbled with this tool?

 
Apteryx

No TB I have not. I spend most of my life in C# Code, SQL Databases, Data Communications and Machine Control. I have not really examined BI Tools to any level of detail, in fact "Before The Market" came into my life, I avoided statistics like the plague.

Now, I can't get enough! :-)

The above is just the start. It only took 20 minutes or so to do. I was just looking to see if there was a "measurement" that would be interesting to anybody, while I have it all setup.

Regards

 
lynngary1817

same info on G/J David, thx

 
bearclawz

Thanks for all the contributions guys! David I know nothing about statistics how has it helped you in your trading?

I would like to look at statistics on how often when there is a 3 wave sequence where on the third wave their is bearish or bullish divergence, after an impulsive move (bearish or bullish) that the price will continue in the direction of the impulsive move after the 3 wave sequence with bearish or bullish divergence present/

Let me know if that was clear.

Thank you!

Looking at the DXY to give me some context for the EUR/USD - the DXY is in a very precarious area its just not clear whats gonna happen, but we have serious resistance at 94.20 look at the chart below

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Rh8Jks9n/

 
triguylm1

Monser33, yes, that is clear as mud. Just kidding, I think the market is indecisive, since the H&S formation and buyers are not buying on any price above recent high (1.19400) . Also, during consolidation the indicators are worthless, since the price is oscillating in a very tight price range. Looking at the long term trend since Dec.of 2016, the EUR/USD has moved up over 1,640 pips to the year high.
(1.2020 - 1.0380) That's above ave. market move per year. Meaning the higher probability is that price will run bearish in 2018.

I refuse to take a large short position, since no one can say which direction to take. But, I will be entering short trades on any bullish runs.