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Anyone have ideas for a quick turnaround on Expectancy? Gold I

 
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PowerTrader23

Anyone have ideas for a quick turnaround on Expectancy? Gold I

Does anyone have a suggestion for a quick turnaround on Expectancy?  I am working through Gold 1 and was caught in the Eur/USD spike on the short side last week.  Had a really bad day.  My win rate is right around 70% but I am still at $-.06 expectancy and really need to get that to a positive level to complete Gold 1.  Would appreciate any thoughts or suggestions.

Thanks!

Geoff

Mon, 10/08/2018 - 1:55am
 
dmntprof

Having just made Gold II and struggled as you are, the only thing that helped me was to try to cut short my losses as soon as I realized the trade wasn't working out, and let the profit run up to my predefined targets

 
dmntprof

hang in there, just keeping slugging it out!

 
Rookie

Power trader, move up a time frame or two and get a high pip trade. Also with a 70% win rate if your trading .01 increase to .02 or .03 you should be safe and further capitalize on your winners. That said before you do that you should know you're average $$ per winner and average -$$$ per loser and know your risk before entering a trade.

 
t.moore1610

This may or may not be the best idea but as far as decreasing your loss expectancy, I get extremely tedious about closing trades. Also if you place multiple trades try letting one or two run for a larger take profit to off set any larger losses. Also feels nice to capture what might have been left behind.

 
PowerTrader23

Thank you for all the comments and advice! I will work hard on this and let you know what worked best. Appreciate it.

 
ADK

Skip taking "good" trades, and wait for a "great" trade. Take higher quality trades.
Also, as dmntprof said, cut losses short. Practice closing losing trades sooner than you normally would.

 
WizMack

Realize the expectancy is on different time schedule than the other measures. I think it is the past 30 days. Look over your past 30 days of trades and see the worst losses. 30 days after that, they won't count on your expectancy. Or the other way, have good trades for 30 days!

 
srsnkysue

I found that small losses helped to lower the expectancy. I set my one click at 1 stop loss and 2-3 pips depending on volatility on a M1 chart with a trailing stop and waited for little runs then put as many trades as I could on the runs knowing that the most lost would be 1 plus spread on retractions. Used EUR/USD mostly as it spends a lot of time at spread of 1 or 2. If the trade moved with me for 1 pip, then reversed the trailing stop would catch it at -.1 or so then the losses were $.10 spread over lots of trades. It is a little tedious and will change your winning trades vs losing trades back and forth and sometime take out the average win / average loss requirement but with 70% win rate you can make those back up quickly. It worked for me but it takes some patience to catch the right runs and I monitored the stats for the last 100 trades to make sure that I was keeping a high enough average win. When they got too close together I would trade my normal style for a bit to increase the average win.

 
burton

expectancy...it's just math...

the bigger your winners are, compared to your losers, the greater your expectancy will be.

a couple examples...

start with $1,000, each pip is equal to one dollar...

- 20 wins 2 pips each = 40 pips or $40
- 5 loses 10 pips each = 50 pips or -$50

25 trades

$40 - $50 = -$10

$1,000 - $10 = $990

over 25 trades you've generated a $10 dollars in loses = -$10
-$10 divided by 25 trades = -0.40

---

start with $1,000, each pip is equal to one dollar...

- 20 wins 3 pips each = 60 pips or $60
- 5 loses 10 pips each = 50 pips or -$50

25 trades

$60 - $50 = $10

$1,000 + $10 = $1110

over 25 trades you've generated a $10 dollars in profits = $10
$10 divided by 25 trades = 0.40

---

one more round...

start with $1,000, each pip is equal to one dollar...

- 20 wins 4 pips each = 40 pips or $80
- 5 loses 10 pips each = 50 pips or -$50

25 trades

$80 - $50 = $30

$1,000 + $30 = $1130

over 25 trades you've generated a $30 dollars in profits = $30
$30 divided by 25 trades = 1.20

you tell me, what's the fastest way to change or to improve your trading expectancy?

no gimmicks, just math.