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Bullish EUR/USD Reached a Pivot High Feb. 16, 2018

 
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triguylm1

Bullish EUR/USD Reached a Pivot High Feb. 16, 2018

Hi fellow bees!

Here's several reasons why EUR/USD has been bullish for over a year now.  The following statements provide insight to major trend moves:

Bloomberg reported; "The ECB has spent years pumping cash into the economy to revive inflation and growth, and last month pledged to keep doing so until at least September 2018, albeit at a slower pace. Yet the debate over when the central bank should step back is gaining intensity." ( https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ecb-warns-of-complacenc... )

Price history confirms the bullish EUR/USD which has reached a new Pivot HIGH on Feb. 16th 2018,  However, the US Dollar index had bounced of support on that same day, a significate sign of a reversal as US Dollar news is getting support through the massive US "Oil" production numbers lately.  

Bloomberg reported; "The Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventory totals showed US crude production remained close to its highest level in nearly half a decade at 10.27 million barrels. This keeps the US on track to meet the EIA’s recent estimate for domestic production to top 11 million barrels per day by year-end." ( https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-prices-sideste... ).

This has put the US oil production in 2nd place ahead of Canada, and just behind Russia oil production numbers.  ( https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75 ). also see report @: https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-prices-mixed-after-positive-us-supply-data-1299766 

LOOKING FORWARD;  US Dollar:  Next Fed meeting March 20, 21;  then again May 1, 2; then again Jun 12, 13; then again July 31 & Aug. 1; Sept. 25, 26 ; https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm  

EBC Monetary Policy Meetings:  March 9, April 27, June 8, July 20, etc. See @:  http://www.profitf.com/calendars/ecb-meeting-dates/

Charts below show Net EUR Net Long Positions:  Chart 1 shows a slight decrease in LONG Positions. Chart 2 shows crude oil inventory (US Crude). 

 https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/api-weekly-crude-stock-656

I recommend looking for the this currency pair to push bearish support levels more than testing the Feb. 16th Pivot High.  Look for recent support for short term buys, and look for resistant zones to enter bearish positions and expect the possibility of launching a long term short position as well. 

 

Happy Trading! 

 

 

 

 

AttachmentSize
EURUSD Net Long Positions.PNG23.7 KB
Capture Crude Oil Inventory Levels.PNG32.31 KB
Fri, 02/23/2018 - 10:45pm
 
pabergin

Any thoughts for this year?

 
triguylm1

First is the usual disclaimer: I'm not to be held responsible bla, bla, bla. So, like all the Brokers and Financial Advisers, have to cover for any responsibility of the recommendation stated. So, the Euro is set to hold steady and yet may continue to outpace the US Dollar: so ranging market condition on the Euro side! while on the US Dollar side, the jobs report is strength, along with oil production, also giving some strength as well. if more bullish news continues to strengthen the US Dollar, then, look for more selling opportunities. Either way the pending order is only triggered when PA moves to strategy target entries and exits.

 
pabergin

I agree, trading range for the time being. The magnitude and character of the reactions aren't alarming yet, so I don't view it as distributional behavior.

Anyhow, I'm long term bullish until contrary evidence develops. I tend to prefer longer time frames so this is a useful backdrop for me.

In my opinion, the weekly chart shows a significant accumulation range. I like to view charts in Wyckoff terms and have attached my interpretation.

Phase A stops the downtrend. The down volatility is pretty severe but the price level seems to be attractive to long term institutional players whose demand supports the price.

Phase B is the range bound market.

Phase C is the final attempt to break support/shake weak hands (doesn't get very far). The lows of Phase C are the origin of the new uptrend.

Phase D is a new kind of bullish rally that clears all the resistance created during the trading range. At this point you can see how supply has contracted. The spreads have narrowed. The down volatility has evaporated. The characteristics of price behavior just look more bullish.

Price tests old resistance and we're off!

If this analysis is accurate, large interests don't usually sell out on the first up move out of the trading range. There should be more advancement.

One of my *long* term targets (based on this analysis) is 1.4. Wouldn't be bad!

eurusd.png
 
triguylm1

pabergin, thanks for the comments! Certainly 1.4 is a good possibility as price traded above 1.4 or more and down to current price from 2007 to 2014. See Monthly Chart below:

If the Monthly Bearish Chanel continues to hold at this price currently; then, plan on the market testing bearish support there at 1.2200.

This next couple of weeks will be interesting to say the least, As price attempts to break above the recent Pivot High of 1.25560 or continues to run bearish again this week. Remember, the next EBC Meeting is March 9th. Meaning, market should stay in a range as I just described, between Low of 1.22000 & 1.25560

Of course, if the counter trend line continues to play out longer then the March 9th date, then one could look for the H&S formation on the D1 Chart to confirm the bearish market sentiment.

Capture EURUSD Monthly Chart  Looking Forward.PNG
 
Rookie

In looking at the D7 chart for both the EURUSD in a 300 pip wide consolidation mode and in a long term bullish trends. The question I would ask is when will EURUSD breakout? and of course in which direction.
Investing.com says H1 Neutral, all others including W & MN buy
COT report says + 18,000 for large speculators Wbuy 16%, Short Term Weaking, Long term Weak.
I think tryguy has hit the nail in the head. We don't know.

 
triguylm1

Look for the news from the EBC meeting on March 9th. That's my best guess.

 
pabergin

I think it'll be interesting to watch the character of the price action leading into the news. The previous short term up trend concluded on January 25, so it's been range bound for a month now. Two weeks is plenty of time for an upswing to unfold. Just in time for a sell off! (Or not) Good set up for a classic phase C downswing to shake the last of the weak hands.

 
pabergin

Hello euro dollar watchers,

A few thoughts on the evolving trading range EURUSD is tracing out. It's a working hypothesis. Attached chart is H2 time frame.

January 25 - Buying Climax - a moment of excitement as late comers establish long positions, their demand is satisfied by strong hands who liquidate their profitable positions. Characterized by the wide spread up bar followed by a a moderately wide spread doji. Demand is absorbed for the time being.

February 5 - a small distribution range develops, it is the cause for the down move concluding on February 7.

February 7 - The automatic reaction. The entire upswing is about 1000 pips, this reaction is about 350 pips, an ordinary uptrend reaction. Demand emerges along the lows of the automatic reaction. It aligns with the previous consolidation which set up the climactic run.

February 16 - Secondary test, test of the highs established by the buying climax. Too much supply was available at the buying climax, all the late sellers are getting out. Notice - less supply is available on this downswing - the spreads have contracted. With a few exceptions, the majority of this swing occurs with ease of movement - diminished supply and poor demand. There is no demand until the bottom, all previous rally attempts fail.

February 27 - the final breakdown does not generate a new following of sellers.

I think the stage is set for a good rally to retest the February 16 high. There is somewhat less supply available to resist the rally as compared to the previous rally set up. The emerging demand looks to be at least equally strong. Similar, possibly somewhat stronger demand versus a smaller supply should produce a nice rally of similar if not more bullish character.

After its accumulation period, the last rally developed over four days. If history repeats, we'll be at the top just in time for the news. Price behavior near the highs may reveal what sort of news to expect...

EURUSD 3.4.18.png
 
triguylm1

Thanks for the info. Looks to be locked in the trading range until the news on March 9th.

Also, I like to check out Speculative Net Positions, not only for the Euro but for the DX and Crude Oil Futures, as the oil drives a good share of market sentiment one way or the other: Meaning, more oil production pushes inventory levels higher as demand is slightly less than the supply rate right now. Oil Speculation is currently holding 704K Net long positions compared to Feb. 16th high of 712K Net Long positions.

"The number of oil rigs operating in the US rose by one to 800, the highest level since April 2, 2015, according to data from energy services firm Baker Hughes. That added to concerns that U.S. crude production may curtail major oil producers’ efforts to drain excess supply in the industry, as oil rig data often serves as an indicator of future production and demand." See @
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-prices-snap-2w...

I'm currently holding 1 short position still in profit, looking for another test of the support zone.

Chart: EUR/USD Net Long Positions Chart (https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cftc-eur-speculative-positio...)
Currently 138K Long Positions compared to Feb 16th of 127K Note Feb. 2nd high of 148.7K

EURUSD Speculative Net Positions (Long).PNG
 
DC Capital Cons...

I like to see some prognostication out here now and again, it's good fun trying to figure out which way the market wants to head.

Two things are for certain with the EURUSD at this point.
A or 1) Either the market topped at 1.2556, or it did not (EURUSD has met all the requirements for a 5th wave completion). If it did, then price is now (short) corrective for this year, until at least the fall, when price should make a corrective bottom and head up into the 1.30 or so range.

B or 2) The market hasn't found a top (which is actually my preferred stance) and will move up again to surpass the 1.2556, and then begin the drop to work and complete a corrective wave 2. (Though, the EUR has met all the requirements for a 5th wave completion, and so have the USD)

The first narrative is gonna likely provide some very choppy action, depending upon the corrective structure that will unfold.

The coming weeks will tell the story. If price is unable to make a new high, look for price to make its way to the 1.16 or 1.155 area before heading back up to new highs. Again, this will be late in the year, likely the fall and could even take until December.

 
triguylm1

DC, Welcome to the hive!

Nice to get another view from a fellow trader. I'm familiar with how to calculate Fibonacci patterns. I agree the PA has met all the requirements of the 5th wave completion, also, note the Double Top formation on the D1 chart. This implies a high possibility of a bearish trend. However, Speculative Net (long) positions are up near 138K which is up 12K from the previous week; thus, indicating more market sentiment to move up for a bullish continuation if price breaks 1.2556.

I'm currently up 2.2% trading the price range of 1.23000 to 1.23580 and have hedge positions in-between.

 
DC Capital Cons...

Thank you for the welcome.. I've been here since 2013.. I wasn't calculating Fib patterns necessarily, I use Elliot Wave to forecast market movement and more specifically structure. Keep your eyes open, don't let that double top fool you, The double top may have only been end of wave 3 and we are in 4 to correct before another move up to finish wave 5. There are a couple of possibilities.

I stopped trading my funded account here when they switched from MT4 to Alveo. Back in 2016 I decided to put what I had learned to work, so I opened a $500 account with the ambition to trade it to 10k. I gave myself 6 months (June to December) to achieve the goal, I hit the 10K by the end of September, so I just continued trading my own accounts on MT4.

I just recently decided to start trading with Apiary again, since I still pay a fee for data.. So I had to become funded again. I choose to not use the hoops they have you jumping through to get funded, all the levels.. I just traded for 30 days and got funded.

I only trade when I know where the market is headed, right now, price is correcting, choppy waters make for a rough ride.

Trade wisely,

DC

 
pabergin

Thanks gentlemen for this conversation. I think we're on similar pages coming from three distinct perspectives which is really interesting to read.

 
josephhsiung

According CFTC's data, EURO position decline a little bit lately.

 
vigrsi25

Wow! Thank you so much. This was a very informative thread with a lot of great insight. I will definitely be watching this pair a bit more closely. Thanks for your help guys. The Hive is great!

 
triguylm1

Trading made Easy as drawing a support line:

Note: The chart below shows when to sell and when to buy in the 30 day Price Range!

Capture 112 EURUSD H1 Chart.PNG
 
Rookie

Hello Leslie, I posted this chart in another thread on a different subject but I think it is appro for you chart and comment just above.
We must have on tin foil hats today!

EURUSD 4H 2pm cst 4-18.png
 
triguylm1

Thanks Rookie: we are on the same wave-length. lol. So, when price is near the 50% line one should most likely let the trade run until next R/S zone. could reach about 250 pips per trade.

 
Rookie

Should be a fun ladder! and get me to the next level!

 
cruising4pips

Guys (and any ladies) thanks for posting all this info. I like to read others POV.

Personally I use the 1-min and 5-min and confirm with 60 min charts when I trade the London morning sessions (3-5 am CST). I'd love to just leave a position open for more than 30 minutes but it seems like whenever I do there is an event that spikes against me. That plus I just "freak" about a SL > 15 pips!

Have a great weekend all

 
triguylm1

Crusing4, and fellow bees, Have you noticed how much potential to the up side in the EURO and GBP/USD pairs? Speculative positions are still showing bullish positions, and according to the Monthly chart, price is testing a break-out above 1.2500 on the EUR/USD and 1.4250 on the GBP/USD.

Candle formation already made a 50% retrace on large candle and it's off and running up according to the 3 inside out candle formation.

Also, European monetary policy is still in a stimulus sentiment. Next ECB meeting April 27, report to public May 2, 2018. If stimulus policy is continued, we can expect another bullish run this next quarter.

Thanks,

Lindsey

 
cruising4pips

I see GBP/USD increasing but until EUR/USD breaks the 1.2500 level I'm not convinced. I just volatility.

 
triguylm1

Yep, nothing about the Forex Market is 100% buy at the break-out price anyway.

Also, note the bearish forecast according to trading economics data, @: https://tradingeconomics.com/forecast/currency

Much of this data is a mathematical equation derived from past history, much like the futures calculations. So, again a type of indicator only confirming trend has been bullish. who knows what year the bullish trend will reverse.

Note: EUR/USD forecast is bearish this year

Also: GBP/USD forecast is bearish this year

Please be advised trend is still bullish until monetary policy changes to higher interest rates!

Capture 113 EUR forecast.PNG Capture 113 GBP forecast.PNG
 
cruising4pips

Thanks for posting that link. I have trouble believing their forecast for Cable going to 1.38 in the 2nd quarter.

Well I will definitely come back to this in 3 months.

 
stvnsttn

@cruising4pips - You don't have to wait and see, it's plain as day in the charts. See my post in GBD/USD forum asking for Help on a fading range I saw. Even if it stays in it's channel on the 7 day chart in 6 weeks it could easily be 1.38393. I drew of picture of why I think so even.

I just noticed the 3rd quarter numbe of 1.35 It's kind of freaking me out that that is exacltly were I put my guestimate for the end of the double top. Being intuitve can be scary sometimes. I promise I didn't see the posted forecast pic before I asked for help. But now I know I can check forecasts to cooborate my intuition. Thats encouraging.

 
Rookie

see the individual pair posts in trade call outs.

 
triguylm1

Let's look at the Currency Forecast update as Fed decision was made on June 13th looking at 2% Central Bank rate.

@: https://tradingeconomics.com/forecast/currency

The results continue to show bearish sentiment in the EUR/USD

See chart below:

Capture Forecast Update June 24.PNG
 
triguylm1

Now the EUR/USD has a new Pivot Low of 1.3666 Just over the weekend pushing down after the European policy changed to increase interest.

Now one can expect price to push lower this 3 quarter.

 
Rookie

It ain't over until the fat lady sings;

https://www.investing.com/analysis/eurusd-bearish-targets-further-downsi...
EUR/USD
Technical Summary
5 mins: Buy
Hourly: Strong Sell
Daily: Strong Sell
Monthly: Strong Sell
: The pair looks to weaken further in the new week following its past week losses. On the upside, resistance comes in at 1.1550 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.1600 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1650 level where a break will expose the 1.1700 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.1550 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1500 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1450 level. Below here will open the door for more weakness towards the 1.1400. All in all, EUR/USD faces further downside pressure

 
triguylm1

I agree Rookie,

Notice, I said expect more bearish runs in the 3 quarter.

 
Rookie

yep, but it's still the second quarter... just saying.

 
triguylm1

Jan to March 31
April to June 30
July to September 30
Oct to December 31

Also, I expect 4th quarter to see price range and then the beginning of the next bullish market.

 
Rookie

da dumb me, thx
I suspect your right on with eh 4th quarter but beginning the week or two prior.

 
triguylm1

Like you said before "The shadow knows" LoL

 
Rookie

yepper and we have tin foil hats...::))