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The confidence of a TARGET trader

 
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vesskrastev

The confidence of a TARGET trader

I moved relatively fast from scratch to Gold 1 - it took 6 months, but for 2 of them I was basically inactive. Thanks to the Beeline I learned so much, but if I have to summarize it, basically I learned a good way to find an Entry point for a trade. My problem was finding the appropriate Exit point. That problem was solved when I encountered the TARGET trading. It is based on the knowledge that 76% of the traffic on Forex is controlled by the top 15 institutional players (the Big Boys). Each one of their traders trades only one currency, and is a great specialists in that area - they know everything about that pair. That trader operates with 20,000 standard lots. It takes 35 million dollars to move the EURUSD for a half of a PIP during the New York session, and we know that they initiate moves of tens or even hundreds of PIPS. These institutional traders are after yours and my money - daily 400 billion dollars come to Forex from retail traders (their way of saying traders like you and me). 90% of the retail traders loose their money - that is why we strive to learn and to be among the other 10%.

The only way to be a successful trader is to figure out what the Big Boys are doing and to do the same (in the crypto space the Big Boys are called whales). The Big Boys (these same top 15 institutional players) create the structure of the market. When you look at a 4 hours chart, you can see how everything looks a lot more reasonable and organized. That is so because the Big Boys trade on the 4 hour charts and they enter and exit the market on the 60 min charts. Everything below 1 hour chart does not exist for them. They trade without stops and without days off - includung Saturdays ans Sundays. One Big Boy cannot accomplish his task alone and they need the cooperation of the rest. They cannot communicate openly with one another (the result will be a prison time) and therefore their language is the candles on the charts. There are two main pillars in that language - Fibonacci's ratios and Elliot Waves. Another major part in the language are the former Support/Resistance levels. Obeying the Fibs, the Elliot waves, and the support/resistance, is necessary in order for them to communicate their intentions to the other Big Boys. Of courrse, Big Boys fight with other Big Boys - one needs to move the currency cross higher, while the other needs it lower, and vice versa. But they are not in a hurry, form temporary alliances, and at the end accomplish their goals. A Big Boy cannot enter a trade with a target less than 55 PIPs. As opposed to them we can trade for 34 PIPS, or even 21 PIPs (smaller Fib numbers). The targets of the Big Boys are prices which correspond to Fib levels, or the side lines of the trends, boxes, etc. The former Support/Resistance levels are very important - they are the obstacles on the way to the targets. The first time when price reaches former Support/Resistance, it bounces off that barrier. After that price comes back and goes through it. After the barrier is removed in such a way, then a big open space appears until the next Fib level - and they love it, they poor money into it and we see how price quickly covers 55, or 89, or even 143 PIPS.

Deciphering that complicated chart language allowes us to understand the intentions of the Big Boys and to syinchronize ourselves with their actions. Playing along with the Big Boys is the only way to be successful on a long term. It does take a long time to master that art, and I am at the very beginning of that road. I found about Target trading in the beginning of Gold 1 and intentionally held myself on Gold 1 (the last simulated level) in order to learn more before I started trading real money. Now that wait is over. Attached is a screenshot with the result of my trading yesterday. Wish me good Luck!        

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Thu, 03/01/2018 - 9:48am
 
jarodtrading1

Great post. You have to follow the Big Boys and anticipate what they are going to do. If others are looking for training other than Apiary check out Urban Forex. Navin puts out a lot for free and his Mastering Price Action course turned my trading around. He will teach you to read the big boys using only price action. I am at the end of the course now and it has been the best money I have spent yet.

 
vesskrastev

Hi Jarod! Price action is the way to go, and any good course in price action is worth its money. Glad to hear that price action is making a difference in your trading. Many green pips to you (as Rookie says)!

 
vesskrastev

The Real Reason Behind Trump's Tariffs

I am subscribed to tons of interesting material, and basically I never read it. Now and then I will spend half a day trying to look through all of that, before I delete it. Today I wanted to delete "Whiskey and Gunpower," which I have never red from before, but before that I opened their last article. Surprise, surprise... Written very smartly, and giving you the unusual angle of viewing, which uncovers the deep truth - something which, in my opinion, is priceless. The article is definitely worth the time spent reading it, but the nutshell of it is below.

"The strategic meaning of Trump’s tariffs is to interrupt the flow of capital and leading-edge tech into China, while also pulling at least some manufacturing out of China to other places; ideally, back to the U.S., but at least to ABC – “Anyplace but China.”

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John.Fraine

"The strategic meaning of Trump’s tariffs is to interrupt the flow of capital and leading-edge tech into China, while also pulling at least some manufacturing out of China to other places; ideally, back to the U.S., but at least to ABC – “Anyplace but China.”

Makes perfect sense. I Hope it works

John

 
CirrusSageRL

garbage news anchors. pathetic low lives deliver the news for a living. skilless talking heads.
Although Anderson Cooper is a little entertaining :D

 
vesskrastev

@ LKSL

Yes, he is entertaining, on that I agree with you, on the rest I don't, but that is not important. I am not trying to make others to think like me, I am just trying to prove to them that fibs work actually really well in Forex trading, and that the price of any pair moves anything but random - it is always heavily manipulated by the Big Boys.

 
CirrusSageRL

"The strategic meaning of Trump’s tariffs is to interrupt the flow of capital and leading-edge tech into China, while also pulling at least some manufacturing out of China to other places; ideally, back to the U.S., but at least to ABC – “Anyplace but China.”

Was a quote from you? Ha, sorry I thought that came from a news anchor on tv ;D...that's why I said garbage news anchor.
I see I found the quote where you supplied that, it's from a daily email article.

I find when news anchors talk they're just trying to read off a teleprompt propaganda for the public ear (paid for by any particular plutocrat of the hour).

 
vesskrastev

No, the quote was not from me - it is from the article, but we do not need to spend any more time discussing it, we'd rather talk about trading.

 
Richard.P

Some interesting comments on the Euro from Adam Button at ForexLive.com

https://youtu.be/88dK1YFkKhY

 
vesskrastev

Yes, really interesting, thank you! I don't pay a lot of attention to the fundamentals, although they are very important. I am betting on a longer term slide down of EA, and comments on the EUR going down definitely help. Also, by tracking down the Trading Weeks ( the weeks, when price moved up and down inside the week, but the price at the end of the week roughly matched the price at the beginning) I am trying to get an idea when to expect Swing trades. I should start paying attention to the fundamentals. In your opinion, what is a good place to get reliable and condensed information regarding the expected future movements of the currencies?

 
Richard.P

I will often read Sive Morten at the Forex Peace Army:
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/threads/forex-pro-weekly-august...

 
FrankS

If the Forex market is as forward-looking as the futures markets of currencies, then watching futures on a technical (price dynamic) basis has those fundamental baked in or in process of being baked in.

 
vesskrastev

@ Richard.P and @ FrankS

Thank you guys!

USDX and EU today

USDX went down today, after bouncing off of the top of the box (attachment 1). MACD clearly confirms that - we have a break of the 0 line of MACD and also of T3 (attachment 2). The long term oscillator and Heiken-Ashi charts (circled in black) point down. Correspondingly EU made a turn up (attachment 3) with the long term oscillator and Heiken-Ashi pointing up, and MACD confirming - break of the 0 line in direction up, and also of T3 (attachment 4). The yellow lines on attachment 3 mark the daily ATR - yesterday's was not reached, and since NY will close in about 20 min, I think I can use the current price of EU to apply the new ATR, marked by the higher yellow line.

Tomorrow at 1 pm EST FOMC minutes will be announced. FOMC and the Non-Farm are the only 2 news events that can actually turn the markets long term, everything else is just a blip on the screen. Scalpers like to trade news events, but from the point of view of price action, I'd rather wait on the side until everything is over. News events, of course, could be traded even in price action - if they move price in the direction of the current move of price, which is what you are trading. If they move price countertrend, the fading of the news event could be traded - the way price comes back to where it was before the news event (if the news event moved price countertrend, the BBs always bring price back - that is with the exclusion of FOMC and Non-Farm).

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Rookie

Today the big move was news related over the border dispute in England and I think Irland an unannounced news bite.
I survived the first wave well but the second wave caused an outside range in both the EU and GA, quit at 10 am CDT in frustration.

Tomorrow might be a good day for non-experienced news traders to sit back and watch, in fact, Friday would be a good day for that also.

Vess, I have the suspicion that the BB are using news events to correct their positions to hit their goals. What do you think? does the ATR stuff support that type of occurrence?

 
FrankS

Bigger questions for me centers on whether the BBoys & Girls are trading (news and no-news alike) so as to offset positions already held or whether they are introducing new positions. News events appear to me to merely create an opportunity to speed up the process, provided the news and their plan is aligned. I doubt they wait very long for news events, as they do not know either which way it might go post-announcement; but once the news is out and if their alignment concurs, they may be in a better position to fade that news and go in the direction they wanted all along.

Now, if the price dynamics go opposite of the expected reaction to the news, then that theory would be further validated that they have the power and influence to overcome any news event. They just have to be patient for a short time. Thus, as with futures, options and stock trading, it's the market's reaction to the news that's always key.

 
vesskrastev

@ Rookie

Yes, it woll be a good idea for inexperienced traders ti stay aside during the FOMC.The ATR does not support them hitting their goals, the ATR merely reflects on what was the average amount of spending for a day, week, etc. The BBs make the ATR with their actions, and they know very well how much the ATR is.

@ FrankS

Yes Frank, for them the news events serve as a catalyst, a way to speed up the process, if the news events moves price in the direction they want. If the news event sebds price countertrend, then they fade the news event, meaning they trade the return of price back to the values from before the news. Also the BBs gladly take the money of the retail traders, who try to trade the event. They will create a whipsaw, roughly moving 15 to 2o pips in either direction, before taking controlof the situation. They can overcome, with time (no more than a day usually) any news event except the FOMC and the Non-Farm. They cannot completely control the market, but they can heavily manipulate the market.

 
vesskrastev

Where Do the BBs Prepare Their Currencies for the Big 2 - FOMC and Non-Farm

The answer is very simple - they move their currencies to a place, from which they can easily be moved in either direction. There are always some expectations regarding the outcome of these news events, but it is never a certainty, so the BBs get their homework done. What are the places that can allow them to move in eiter direction? They are the top/bottom of a box, the equilibrium line (marked in my charts with a green horizontal line), and there is also one pattern which provides that - the symmetrical triangle (wedge), which is characterized with uncertainty, and may break out in either direction.

If you look carefully at the bottom of anyone of my screenshots, you will see that the abbreviations for my currencies (what we call the Majors), starting from EU and going left, are: EU, GU, UCAD, UCHF, UJ, AU, EJ, GJ, and NU. Below are the screenshots for all of them (I don't have the space to go for the "exotics" also, although they show the same behavior). All of them show you examples of sym. wedges, equilibrium lines, and the last one is parked at the bottom of a box. Homework well done. Of course, that is just a pure coincidence, in Forex everything is random.... LOL

EU.png GU.png UCAD.png UCHF.png UJ.png AU.png EJ.png GJ.png NU.png
 
Rookie

Vess It will be interesting to look back at these charts next week after Presidents Trump Trade announcements this day.

 
vesskrastev

@ Rookie

Yes, it will be interesting to look at them next week. Meanwhile today Powell spoke, and sent the markets at tailspin. Yesterday Boris Johnson talked to Angela Merkel, and the GBP pairs went crazy. Big, big moves on a lot of pairs, while some moved just a bit. How come that some of them made huge moves, and others not? And those that made the big moves, how big were they actually? How do we measure these moves?

Attachments 1 and 2 show USDX - with the 3 clicks tool applied to 2 different moves, on a 10 min chart and on a 60 min chart. Both show the same result - USDX very slightly overshot the 4.236 fib and came back (the second screeenshot, the 60 min, was taken after the NY close, while the first one was taken during the time of the action).

Now lets take a look at EU - attachment 3. EU drew exactly the reversed figure of USDX and stopped at 4.236. Attachments 4 and 5 show EA and UCHF. Both moved to exactly 2.618 fib - due to the fact that the initial move (A to B) was a lot bigger than the corresponding moves of the other pairs. Attachments 6 and 7 show how UJ and CADJ, like the others, very happily moved to 4.236 also.

The last 2 attachments show us something different. AU and NU actually made almost no move, compared to the rest. Why? Both of them were already in a move down, and the move of USDX was forcing them to move up, in the opposite direction. They obliged unfillingly, for one hour only, and immediately reversed.

Huge move of USDX forced similar moves to the pairs, which were already in agreable moves, or were ready for a reversal in that direction. The 2 pairs, which were already in opposing moves, did not care much for what USDX was doing, and fought against the influence of USDX very successfully. Nothing surprising in that at all. The BBs use the news events as catalysts for a huge move, when that serves their intentions, and shrug them off, when the news events force them to move against their intentions.

Something else, very important. The BBs did not know what Powell was going to say, they might have had some expectations, but nothing was for sure. He said something which served them, and they took advantage of that immediately. Their targets were premediated, and these targets were not achievable in a single move, but with the help of Powell, they did it. That is why all of these moves ended exactly at big fibs. Despite the crazyness of the moment, the ends of all of these moves were right in the bull's eye. That is what the BBs do, business as usual.

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CirrusSageRL

hey vesskrastev,

just a quick question... do the BB's every eat here? ;D

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yourontheball

I have found the 1 HR charts to be very helpful
in closing successful trades
Also Support and resistance play a big part in my trades

 
vesskrastev

@ hackdie

Not yet, but I wouldn't mind. They might drop off a few secretes it is always easier to be told the info, instead of trying to get it yourself by sitting through the charts.

@ yourontheball

True, everything seems quite easier to grasp on 1 hr and 4 hr charts. And Support and Resistance are very important - it helps to remember that they are just fibs of previous price moves. As such, quite often they are reflected in the fibs of the current price moves - I would mark my fibs, look back and see that they actually hit major Support and Resistance levels.

 
vesskrastev

Bank's Influence On Forex

Probably most of you have already read this article from the Apiary Fund Blog. It was distributed via emails couple of days ago. The only reason I am posting it is because it says basically exactly what I have been saying all the time, with slightly less details. The author says "the big banks primarily trade off of support and resistance only," and it is completely true. With a risk to become boring, I will repeat once again - Support and Resistance levels are the fibs of previous price movements. It is very easy to check that when you go back in time in the charts. The nice thing is that these fibs of previous price moves reflect the plans of the BBs (long term plans and short term plans) and tend to show up in the current price moves also, i.e. the fibs of the current price moves quite often would identify some of the previous Support and Resistance levels. That is the dream of the lazy trader - instead of going back and searching for Support/Resistance, just click couple of times the Fibonacci's tool (tools), and they will show you some Support/Resistance levels. Of course, if your strategy is based on Support/Resistance, you'd rather meticulously check on these Support/Resistance levels.

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vesskrastev

Price Responding to News Events (Fundies) - How Does It Happen Generally

To me there are 2 types of Fundies (News Events) - scheduled announcements, and unexpected geopolitical events. For the scheduled anouncements usually there are some expected numbers to be anounced (although for quite a lot of them there are no estimates available). In this case the BBs are prepared for the event. If the anouncement matches (or gets close) to the estimate, the reaction to this Fundie is muted. If there is a big deviation between the estimate and the real figure, a big move results. In the case of Fundies, caused by unexpected geopolitical events, the reaction is always strong.

In the case of the scheduled anouncements, the BBs love to do a whipsaw - 15 to 20 pips up, and then the same down (or vice versa), in order to pick up the "donations" of the retail traders. After that, they will assume the real direction of the response to the Fundie. If that response matches their plans, they will use it as a catalyst for a strong movement, if not - within a day or so they will kill it, will move price back to where it started. When the Fundie was a catalyst for a strong move (unsustainable move, vertical, or very close to vertical), ALWAYS there will be a retracement. Usually the retracement is to the 0.382 fib, but rearly it could reach 0.500 (the 0.500 retracement is the "registered mark" for the regular moves - angle of movement around 45 degrees).

In the case of unexpected geopolitically caused Fundies, usually price takes off immediately and keeps pushing for 2-3 hours, after which starts the long dance of the retracement of that price move.

From the last 2 days, I will consider both the GBP and the USD caused huge moves to be geopolitical (caused by Boris Johnson and by Powell). How did they unfold? Lets take a look at GU and at EU. In the case of GU the Johnson's move had finished its retracement, true - after that the Powell's move started and it has not yet finished its retracement.

Attachment 1 shows the big details of the GU's "Johnson's" move - thrust up for 3 hours, quick retracement to 0.214 fib, then another thrust up for 4 hours, until the second top was reached, then 12 hours down, until the end of the retracement was reached at 0.500 fib. Attachments 2 and 3 show the retracement in bigger details on a 10 min chart.

Attachment 4 shows the bigger picture of GU since the last reversal happened on August 11th - a move up, followed by a big box, followed by a big ABC up, followed by an even bigger box (which had a big false breakout in direction down). Then we have the last 2 days geopolitically based price moves - they serve the BBs perfectly, since they "drew" the next big ABC up. The "Johnson's" move is completed - price retraced to 0.382, and then to 0.500, but the "Powell's" move is not yet complete - price only retraced to 0.214. When the markets open on Sunday we will see if the BBs did any moves to finish this during the weekend, or if they left it for the next week. In any case, price should retrace to 0.382 - that is what it does normally.

Attachment 5 shows us on a 10 min chart the details of the unfinished yet "Powell's" move of EU. Price moved to Top 1, retraced to 0.214, moved up to a higher Top 2, and retraced again to 0.214. Further retracements are necessary, and that is why I called it the "UnfinishedEU News Move".

In my experience, after the end of the total impulse move of the fundie, pice retraces to 0.214; then it resumes its original direction and gets again close to that Impulse end; then starts retracing again, crosses 0.214 but does not reach 0.382; then moves back again; bounces off of 0.214 and starts retracing until it reaches 0.382. Usually when price reaches 0.382 retracement, that signals the end of the retracement, and price assumes its course again. This is a very general way to describe it, and in any particular case (your favorite pair!) you have to do the home work and to get the fine details. Still, more or less, the way price reacts during and AFTER the end of the geopolitically based huge moves, is close to the way attachments 1 to 3 and the last paragraph describe it.

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vesskrastev

USDX and EU Today

Last week USDX moved sharply down. At the end of this move it briefly crossed the 4.236 extension fib of that move, made a 180 degrees turn, acknowledged again the 4.236 before crossing it on the way up, did the same for the 2.618 fib, and finally bounced down off the confluence of 2 fibs - the 0.618 retracement fib (2 clicks, the long black line), and the 1.618 extension fib of the move down. The oscillators and the Heiken-Ashi charts show a slight bias for a move up (attachment 1). On attachment 2 we can see that USDX broke through both the "0" line of the histogram of MACD and through T3 - on direction up, confirming what attachment 1 suggested. So far neither the break of the 0 line, nor the break of the T3, are very convincing. Time will show, but for the moment it seems that USDX may move up.

On attachment 3 EU is at a bounce point. The resistance zones, marked by the red rectangles, are formed by the fibs of the 2 moves up from the last week, and are confirmed multiple times. Based on the higher chance of USDX going up, probably EU will go down. Actually, untill I was writing all of that, EU broke through both T3 and the 0 line of MACD in direction down (attachment 4), which means that the move down had already started. Lets see how long would it last.

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FXGold54

Great thread :)

Allen

 
ttrtot

I like it, not sure I could trade on the 4hour chart don't have enough time and hate to walk away from the screen when trading.

 
vesskrastev

@ Allen

Thank you kindly Allen! Coming from you, it means a lot to me.

@ ttrtot

The fear of walking away from the screen is a major obstacle. If you are afraid to walk away, it means to me that you are a price action trader in your head may be, but not in your heart. I am still very often uncomfortable leaving the trades unattended, and that happens when I am not quite sure in my strategy, or when I I break the rules. Sitting in front of the computer screen, stairing at candles, and biting my nails, I consider a waist of time. That time is a lot better spent going in the past of my pairs and researching what exactly did they do in similar situations.

Regarding the 4 hr charts - actually it is a little bit different. On 4 hrs chart we study the long term plans of the BBs. After that we move to 1 hour chart in order to check what are they doing today. If, as a result of the 4 hrs and 1 hour charts analyses, was established that a possible trade exists, then we go to 10 min for the entry and exit.

 
vesskrastev

What Is GN Doing Now?

GN completed a long run up - from July 29th to August 27th, totalling 1,134 pips. It was a huge move, for a short time (GN is known for doing things like that) and, of course, it CANNOT finish with only one, or even two tops. I think the top was reached on August 27th, at 1.9414. What gives me the reasons to think that?

GN hit the top of the Daily chart box - marked by the dashed pink line. Also BP trade, applied to the first Impulse move Up and the following Retracement on 60 min chart (that is the 3 clicks tool, applied on these points) shows that the 6.854 fib was hit exactly on August 27th. Attachment 1 shows us that actually it was overshot by 14 pips, which is not easy to be shown on the screenshot, since I am trying to show the whole huge move, but I think we can forgive the BBs for going slightly over on a move of 1,134 pips. Taking away these 14 pips makes the move to end on 1,9400 - a perfectly round number, great for signifying the end of the move (combined with hitting the 6.854 super extended fib, which basically always signifies the end of the run).

The end of such a run WILL be marked by multiple tops. I think the ultimate top was 1.9414, and since then GN is dancing the dance of the Reversal. It will take some time to complete that dance. Attachment 2 shows that in details. In 3 hours price jumped down 231 pips (WOW!!!), covering in no time the distance from 0 to Support 4. Then it did ABC exactly to the confluence of 0.786 Retracement fib and S1 (Support1). Of course, this is a pure coincidence, as everything thety do (LOL). Last night price made the second big move down, the end of which marks a great symmetrical wedge, which by all means should break out down.

At the moment price is doing another ABC up, and again, absolutely coincidentally, the 0.786 fib target of that ABC move perfectly matches the S2. So until now within that sym. wedge price did 0 to S4, then up to S1, down back to almost S4, now is in the way up to S2, and after that it should resume its way down. By doing that dance price drew an almost perfect Head And Shoulders pattern.

GN should soon move decisively down, probably in a move comparable to the just finished move up - of course, geopolitical events may affect that, but probably will not stop it. Lately most of the GBP pairs have been moving in synk (EG, of course, doing the reverse). GN moving down, and so far also GA and GCHF doing that (I haven't yet looked at the rest of them) could mean that all the GBP is generally moving down, but I have to spend more time on that. For the moment I can say that, in my opinion, GN is starting a big move down.

GN has the fame of being wild and unpredictable. Is it really? Unfortunately it takes a long time and a lot of efforts to get familiar with the "language" of the BBs. Once that is done, the false excitement of trading goes away and is replaced simply by the boredom of waiting for your prefferd move, previously calculated, to come to you. I am not there yet, but am getting closer and closer.

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vesskrastev

USDX Moving Sharply Higher

During the last 5 hours USDX made a sharp move higher - attachment 1. Attachment 2 shows a convergence for the move up. For the last 30 min there was a retracement down - attachment 3, on a 10 min chart.

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Rookie

Ha ha Vess just wait until tomorrow when Trump decides to tweet about China again....LOL

 
vesskrastev

Trump definitely is a geopolitical factor. He plays the "Trump" card very loudly, and enjoys doing that!

 
vesskrastev

Big Move Down of GBP Last Night

There was a big move down of GBP last night, and it is still going on. The GBP pairs are all dancing the dance of the Reversal. Attachment 1 shows GN it did Move 1 and Move 2 Down (the big black arrows pointing down), each one followed by an ABC PullBack (the white lines). Moves 1 and 2 formed a box, after which price moved in a narrow horizontal box - both boxes marked by horizontal black lines. Last night, around 8 pm, GN started drawing the standard Break, Hook and Go pattern (the small black arrows at the right end). The Break part touched what I call the Line of Reversal (the long yellow diagonal line), the Hook went up, completing the upper diagonal line, thus forming a perfect symmetrical wedge. Symmetrical wedges explode - the Go portion, which started at London Open, and still has not yet finished its run. The target of the big time move is the confluence of a few fibs, the Daily ATR (the short horizontal yellow line), and the psychologically significant "round" number of 1.9100 - that confluence is marked by the red rectangle, which I use for marking the Resistance zones. After hitting the target, price will inevitably bounce up, and should reach the 0.382 reversal of that big move, which started at 2 am last night (CST, which is my local time of London Open).

I played that move (attachment 2), getting only a small portion of it (I still need more experience and confidence in doing that). The 30 pips in Pips Today was the second trade of the sequence - I forgot to change its Take Profit, and it closed at 30 pips only - if let run, it was going to show 116 pips, sitting betwen the top 2 trades. At 5:10 am I was still in front of my laptop, when price hit 1.9131 (attachment 1 shows the time when price was at 1.9136). At 5:40 am I closed all of the trades with price standing at 1.9146 (attachment 2). I was completely convinced that price would go down to 1.9100, and nevertheless I pulled the plug - chickened out because of a lack of experience (and sleep).. Price moving back 15 pips against me on 7 trades cost me 105 pips, and the "executed" 2nd trade would have been 127 pips at that time - that makes a total missed profit of 232 pips. All of that is counting on price "only" getting to 1.9131. Actually currently it is at 1.9079 - WOW, it went beyond the 1.9100 (attachment 3)- if the 8 trades (including the "executed" one) were allowed to run these 52 pips b/n 1.9131 and 1.9079, that would have added additional 416 pips. So, a total of missed profits of 232+416=648 pips. And, of course, if I did not chicken out, there would have been trades 9, and 10, and probably 11 added also - each one with diminishing returns, but still totalling about 90 pips probably. That would mean lost profit about 740 pips. Would have been nice...

Why do I write all of that? Just to show the potential of trading price action. Of course, I was completely aware that last night ALL of the GBP pairs were doing exactly the same thing as GN, but was afraid to go too "wide". Attachments 4 to 8 show you GA, GJ, GCHF, EG (of course, moving the opposite direction), and GU. I could have played all of them (or most of them), but I was afraid to do that. Nothing replaces experience, knowledge is an absolute must, but only time brings you experience. Today ProAct has no sessions because of the banking holiday, and tomorrow, I am sure, at least 10 ProAct traders will report making at least a 1,000 pips last night, a few of them - multiple thousands. And the most important thing - these are not strategies where you win a thousand, or loose a thousand. Since the "train" of trades took off at 2 am, I was never at loss, just the profit kept increasing. Attachment 9 shows my result - 370 pips, significantly less that the full potential of the last night London Open move (now the move is over at 211 pips, and GN does things like that quite often). Well, 370 pips is not bad neither, so may be better off the next time.

Screenshot (635).png Screenshot (627).png Screenshot (639).png Screenshot (629).png Screenshot (630).png Screenshot (631).png Screenshot (633).png Screenshot (634).png Screenshot (638).png
 
Rookie

Apparently I slept thru some very good momentum trades last night.

Maybe we should start a thread for a white space call out early warning system for price action traders.

The last time GBP did this I had my very bests day ever!

You did good Vess! Thx for the share.

 
vesskrastev

@ Rookie

Ed, the Wide Open Space is just one of the components of price action. It is based on Fibonacci's retracements and extensions. It is very important, but on its own it does not guarantee successful trade (trades). The rest of the puzzle has to fall in place also. I am happy to see that you consider yourself a price action trader.

GA and GN are always in the same train. GA also has a very good ATR, close to the one of GN. The good things about both of them are at least 2 - both use GBP (and the GBP pairs are the ones making big moves, unfortunately for everyone in USA that does not happen at a conmvinient time of the day), and they also use NZD and AUD - the advantage of them is that these currencies are traded all day long (not like most of the other pairs - being traded in one, or two sessions). Their main advantage is alsa a disadvantage - Brexit may cause chaos at any time. Hopefully in couple of months Brexit will be over.

To me the best alternative of GN and GA are EN and EA. I need to spend time on both of them, but they offer good places to trade when GBP goes through its convulsions. The next couple of pairs are GJ and EJ - here JPY comes into play, and that, of course, requires additional research. I completely forgot GCHF - a wonderful pair, to a big extend isolated from most of the majors (except GBP, of course), with a good ATR, and being traded in one session only - the London session. GU also provides opportunities, but GU is bound to USDX - when USDX sneezes, GU catches a full blown cold.

 
vinodvinod

Thank you vesskrastev. You covered some good ideas. I have been following the fibs but which pivots to follow is the key.
Best wishes.

 
Rookie

Vess, right on, fo me when not scalping it's all about white spaces and momentum, or if u prefer price and time cycles.

Lately, I have also avoided trading with any pair that has a spread of greatan than 1.1 as rule. Thus many of the GBP pairs are off my Apiary trading list.

 
vesskrastev

@ vinodvinod

You are right - which pivot to follow is the key. Each pivot is the result of a fib of a previous move. Some of them are of lesser importance, some of them are very important. The best way to distingusih among them is to start playing with the Fibonacci Tool, and to see WHICH fib of WHICH moves hit a pivot. In a while you will know which price moves are important, and also which are the most important fibs of them. Also, of course, any previous Support/Resistance level is very important. Your task is to figure out which fib of which move produced that Support/Resistance level. In a while you will know what to expect.

@ Rookie

When you use price action, the spread is of no importance. If you scalp fo 3-5-8 pips, of course, it is very important. But if you go for 50-100 or 100+ pips, the amount of the spread is insignificant, compared to the size of the target. Then, also, the pairs with the higher volatility, the ones that you prefer to trade in price action, are also the pairs with the higher spread. I personally do not care about the spread of the pair (of course, I do not want to start a trade in the 17:00 EST, immediately after NY close, because of GBP spreads reaching towards 20 pips, but that peak of the size of the spreads is gone in about 1 - 1.5 hours). All I care about is to trade one of the above mention pairs, which at the moment has the right Structure, and has a Daily ATR of at least 100 pips (for EG I might make an exception, but for the moment EG is not my major pair).

 
Rookie

Vess, you are certainly correct "he spread is of no importance" but except for the amount of equity we have to trade./eisk,
Those that trade the spread must inevitability bow to risk management and the prudence of that trade.

 
vesskrastev

A Small Lesson From The Last Night

The Daily ATR for GN from last night (and from today) is 189. It is marked on attachment 1 - starting from NY opening it ends on 1.9093. Combined with the fibs, and the 1.900 number, that convinced me that price would stop when it hits the Resistance zone. Actually price went through the Resistance Zone and stopped at 1.9079 (attachment 1).

That surprised me, and shouldn't have. The ATR is Average, on Big Moves it gets exceeded. Attachment 2 shows the last week - there were 3 big moves down, all of them starting right around London Open, continuing 3 to 4 hours, AND exceeding the Daily ATR and piercing the Resistance Zones. True, last night price needed a break to regroup and to attack again the Resistance Zone, but it did it. So, for the Big Moves that I try to identify in advance and to trade, I SHOULD expect price to EXCEED the Daily ATR, AND to pierce the Resistance Zones. After that, of cource, price would do a big Pull Back, AND after the Pullbacks would gladly oblige the Resistance Zones (attachment 2).

The Resistance Zones are great, they help for planning, but they apply only to the regular moves. Resistance Zones and Daily ATRs do not restrict the Big Moves, which happen couple of times in a good week - it is a good thing to remember.

Screenshot (640).png Screenshot (641).png
 
vesskrastev

USDX Climbing Into the Stratosphere, BUT...

USDX had done a steep climb, qiuickly surpassing the previous big top from July 31st (attachment 1). The oscillators and the Heiken-Ashi charts all point for a continuous move up (as Scott loves to say, they show us the picture of today). When we look at the MACD, we see a clear divergence (attachment 2). MACD shows us what comes tommorow. So we may eventually have one more move up of USDX (WOW, it is almost at 100.00), but the next move will be down - MACD always wins, and it points down.

Screenshot (646).png Screenshot (644).png
 
Rookie

It's not done yet, your big boys like even numbers, I suspect it will touch 100 maybe even 102 before the fall starts and a 3-4% deviation from the mean on the day/weekly charts. It's only the 3M CCI that has a slight turn down at this time. But change does start at the bottom and work its way up, just not sure the cycle is complete yet.

I have to stop sleeping so much at night... I'm missing the best trades! It didn't use to bee a problem but I suppose I'm getting older.

DXY.PNG
 
ninos23.03

Good luck my friend

 
vesskrastev

@ Rookie and @ ninos23.03

Thank you! It is my fault - I guess I have to log out and to log in again - for 3 days I kept seeing that there were no new entries in the tread, while yours were there.

Ed, what USDX does is an interesting subject. I used the USDX chart in my "stairing at the candles" for the last couple of days and the results will be posted in the next couple of postings - it will be too long to have them here. In a nutshell, I think for a short while USDX will move horizontally, after that we will see.

 
vesskrastev

The Relationship Between T3, MACD, and Bolinger Bands

I spent a big portion of my last week researching the the relationship between T3 and the Bolinger Bands. T3 is by far the best Moving Average. It is a weighted sum of many MAs - Single EMA, Double EMA, Triple EMA, and so on. If you Google T3, there would be many results to look at. The first link below tells you sometning about T3, the second describes how it is produced. In case you are curios, you may start reading, but that is not necessary. It is a matter of fact - T3 beats any other MA.

http://www.binarytribune.com/forex-trading-indicators/t3-moving-average-...

https://www.technicalindicators.net/indicators-technical-analysis/150-t3...

On top of T3 being superior to the other MAs, Jerry figured out what exactly settings to apply to it in order to maximize its potential. The charts are locked, one cannot get out of them the settings, all I know is that it was not a process of trial and error, but a major mathematical idea was applied to it - and the results are marvalous. Price has a really hard time breaking Jerry's T3 - it gets close to it and bounces, then it hits it and bounces again, then it slightly penetrates it, but bounces again. Then, at some time, price will decisively pierce T3, and from now on will stay on the other side of it. Now price will have a hard time crossing T3 in the opposite direction. T3 is a superior way to visually approximate what is price doing right now - is it trending, is it in a retracement, or in a PullBack, or is it outright in a reversal.

In Jerry's charts (ProAct's charts - Jerry is the one who did everything in them) T3 acts in tandem with MACD. T3 will cross price exactly at the time the "0" line of MACD will cross the histogram. Sometimes the histogram will bearly cross on the other side and immediatly will return on the previous side, sometimes it will be a major move. MACD (in combination with the ATR - for practical purposes) is the winner of all indicators - the way the histogram moves tells you the future, MACD always wins! With T3 now we have the price analog for the "0" line - it is T3.

I figured out the relationship between T3 and the 0 line couple of months ago. T3 is "holding" price on one of its sides, helping us to make a trading decision - and the 0 line of MACD seconds that. Great, a double confirmation is definitely better than a single one. It does not stop here, though. T3 interacts also with the walls of the Bolinger Bands - and produces basically identical results, while also helping us to distinguish between the different stages of the unfolding price move. Keeping a single post really long is not a very good idea, also it helps to keep one post devoted to one idea (and not more), so the relationship between T3 and Bolinger Bands is in the next post.

 
vesskrastev

T3 and Bolinger Bands

It is hard for me to say many things with just a few words, and since I already commented on that in an email to Scott and Jerry, I will just paste parts of that email.

"I already mentioned earlier that T3 does for price exactly the same thing that the 0 line does for the histogram of MACD - and, of course, that was not a secret for Jerry. With Price and MACD on the same Time Frame, and the histogram staying on one side of the 0 line only, the dips of the histogram mark Continuation Patterns - providing that the 0 line was not pirced decisively. If the 0 line was pierced decisively, a reversal had started. The interactions of Price and T3 above in the chart, show exactly the same thing.

T3 interacts very meaningfully with Price, BUT not ONLY with Price. It does the same with the Bolinger Bands - in the 6 ACES charts. T3 likes to stay inside the BBs - attachment 1 describes that. There is absolutely no secret in Attachment 1. The interesting things happen when T3 gets out of the BBs - takes an Excursion Out. These Excursions do not last a long time. When T3 gets out of the BBs (starts an Excursion), that signifies the beginning of a Continuation Pattern - providing that Price did not pirce T3. The "deeper" the Excursion Out - the more pronounced the pattern is. Attachment 2 shows all of that, as good as I could make it. When T3 breaks out of the BBs, the first part of the pattern starts - Price moves towards T3 in a counter trend direction. When T3 gets back inside the BBs, actually slightly before that, a strong trending move starts, until Price makes a strong Break Out of the BBs - this time on the opposite side of the T3 excursion out.

The way T3 interacts with the BBs walls, is very similar to the way T3 interacts with the 0 line. T3 breaching out of the BBs generally means to me that a Continuation Pattern (flag pole, or a Bullish Pole in the case of a Bullish move, or a Bear Pole in the case of a Bear move) had started. In the case of a full blown Reversal, Price has to first breach T3, before getting Out of the BBs, so the signal for reversal is received before one could start expecting continuation patterns in the new direction.

Having the combination of T3/0 line interactions, and T3/BBs interactions, is a double confirmation, strenghtening the Structure considerations. T3 is super wonderful, I love it."

P.S. Looking at attachment 1, it is obvious that Price - in our case Price is USDX - just positioned itself squarely in the middle of a narrow HORIZONTAL Bollinger Bands channel. To me it means that for a little while USDX will move horizontally, and slightly before the end of that horizontal move the charts will probaly give as clues about the direction of the next USDX move.

Price, T3, MACD, and BBs.jpg T3 Excursions Out of the BBs.jpg
 
Pavneet Ghai

nice article, I wish it was with charts as example.

 
patbalvanz

Pavneet, notice the 2 squares above. Click them for charts.

 
Hulagirl

This is interesting information. I will have to do some research as I am someone that likes to understand the underlying reasons for the movement in the market.

 
vesskrastev

ProAct Open House is Now Open

Below is the text of my email from ProAct.

ProAct Traders
To:
vesskrastev@yahoo.com

Sep 9 at 8:56 AM

Back by popular demand!

Our Open house is starting this Monday September 9th, 2019. We only open our Live rooms and website access a few times a year and this is one of them! Last year our traders captured over 18,000 pips. If you sit in the open house room you will see our traders capturing hundreds of pips and you might just catch a few of them also.

In addition, Many of our training videos are available and we also make our session recap after each NY session available to you during this open house. Last year our traders made over 10,000 pips on that daily video alone.

We’d love to have you join us and there is NO COST!

No need to register - just show up using the links below:

To open your Session, please copy the password and then click the appropriate link and paste into the login box.
If the login below does not work go to www.zoom.us , click on top right corner (Join a Meeting), input the 9 digit meeting ID number below for the specific meeting and then enter the Password for that meeting when prompted and you should go right in.

Note: Please use your REAL NAME when entering - we are a family and "joe blow" or "FXDude" doesn't work for us.

New York's Password:
freetrial

New York Session Link

Meeting ID: 158-529-358
NY Session - Live FX Target Training
9:15 AM - 10:30 AM Eastern

London's Password:
freetrial

London Session Link -

Meeting ID: 816-490-227
London Session - Live FX Target Training
8:30am to 10:30am GMT

Note: Please use your REAL NAME when entering - we are a family and "joe blow" or "FXDude" doesn't work for us.​

The ProAct Traders Team

"Trading Forex involves substantial risk, is not for every trader and only risk capital should be used. Past performance is no guarantee of future results".

The New York session Link is below:
https://proacttraders.zoom.us/j/158529358?pwd=U3A2WlhQczhpQlA0MGhMcWZiS2...

London session Link:
https://proacttraders.zoom.us/j/816490227?pwd=TTYvUEw2WlFaenN1bGIxSGVJM2...

Andrew, who presents the London session, lives in Florida, and they have severe problems now, related to the last hurricane, so London may not be open all of the time.

The open house is a great opportunity to experience how target trading works. It is absolutely free and carries no obligations. Anyone curious about it is welcome to attend.

 
Rookie

Vess, Thanks much, what took you so long to post this msg...LOL

 
vesskrastev

Sleep deprivation Ed! I am late on everything, I got some late payments to my bills, not because of lack of funds, but because of lack of time to pay them (or lack of menthal resources to remember that - hopefully that forgetfulness would not progress into dementia, lol).

 
vesskrastev

The Importance of Keeping Watch on the Dollar Index

In my post from September 7th I wrotethat probably for a few days USDX will move sideways - in a tight box - and then the charts will give us clues about the next move. I needed my 3 hrs of sleep in a bed (not in the car chair), and last night could not post, so here it is.

The last couple of days USDX was bouncing off of a SLTL (Single Line Trend Line) moving up (attachment 1). Then T3 moved out of the Bolinger Bands - that generally means that a short term counter trend will follow (the skort black arrow down), followed by a strong trending move. Now that trending move up was amplified by the EUR news event this morning, and created a big, big vertical move. That same vertical move was followed by equally strong move down - we already had a very strong diversion. USDX did a huge whipsaw, and all of the majors immediately responded to that. Attachment 2 shows you the whipsaw.

Trading the majors, and especially the EU without paying attention to the USDX, is not a very smart thing. USDX can do things like that at a moment's notice. On attachment 1 you can see how USDX (price) already broke the T3, and is just about tho break the 0 line of MACD. That means that for the moment USD is going down, but that would not be finalized before the 0 line is broken.

Screenshot (688).png Screenshot (689).png
 
vesskrastev

Scott's View on What to Expect Next Week

As you all probably know, Monday starts the second week of the Open House - I wrote about that and posted links on September 11th. Below is the text of an email that Scott sent to all attendies - he calls it "What I see in the Forex next week." The link to itis attached too. By the way, Scott does that every weekend, and it is accessible to every guest. Also attached are today's ATRs.

"Scott.Barkley@proacttraders.com

Sep 13 at 6:25 PM

AAAA

9/13/2019 7:24:42 PM EST Blog

This is what I see in the Forex the week of September 15th, 2019: USDX, EU,UJ,GU,AU http://proacttraders.com/blog – see website for more images #forex #$$ #Proacttraders #FX"

http://proacttraders.com/blog

ATRs 9-14-19.png
 
vesskrastev

Condensed File with the Actual Weekly ATRs and the Total Weekly Moves of 20 pairs for 2019 (and the last few weeks of 2018)

I finally finished the work on this file. To me it is very important, and I will spend some time sifting through it. So far, just from a partial look through it (during the time I was assembling it) I could say that during the Christmass week all the pairs went to very, very low Total Weekly Moves, and also that quite often the Total Weekly Move hits aFibonacci's number (or very close to it).

Once again, this info is very important to me - hopefully it will be interesting for you too.

AttachmentSize
Weekly Actual ATRs and Total Moves.xlsx 25.59 KB
 
FXGold54

Hey Vesslin;

Wow, that is a lot of great info, and appreciate the work you put into it. I too will be spending some time sifting through.

Allen

 
vesskrastev

New, Improved File for Actual Weekly ATRs and Total Weekly moves

For quite a long time I was amassing data on the Weekly ATRs, then I decided that I should add also the Total Price Move for the week. It took some time to get the additional data, but finally it was ready. It was collected from the weekly candles of the pairs - Actual Weekly ATR = High - Low; the total move = Open - Close. This way the Actual ATR is always positive (of course), but the total move has a sign. For weeks when price moved down, the total move is positive, since the ending value is lower (smaller) than the starting one. For weeks when price moved up, the total move is negative, since the Open is lower (smaller) than the Close.

My source file was checked many times, but to get from it to the final file - the first version of "Actual Weekly ATRs and Total Weekly Moves" - I spent close to 3 days in cutting and pasting, cutting and pasting... - you get the picture. I thought that there were no major mistakes in assembling that final file, but was not sure. My son came home, and for 20 minutes reassembled the file and organized in a lot nicer way. Now I am convinced that the data is proper, and, of course, is a lot nicer formatted. The new file is below. By the way, week 53 of 2018 is actually week 1 of 2019, but I would not mess up the formulas (and everything) just to fix that small detail.

AttachmentSize
Weekly Actual ATRs and Total Moves.xlsx 68.96 KB
 
Rookie

Vess this is an awesome amount of work, staggering to me.
Now that you have the total move for a specific period of time I.E. price and time cycle!
Maybe think on adding the catalyst for the momentum of change to a cycle.
Just a thought...

 
vesskrastev

Allen and Ed, thank you very much for your comments.

By the way Ed, I can physically see the momentum appearing - my charts show that. There are total of 24 indicators working behind the scene (only Jerry knows exactly how it works) and a few of them are involved in displaying momentum. When momentum appears, the candles become bright red or green - without momentum a thin black line goes around the candle, and it looks kind of a dull red or green. There is a second, higher level of momentum - that is when a red arrow (for shorts) or a green arrow (for longs) appears. There is even a third level for momentum - a white dot appears, which means that a painted (bright) candle and an arrow appeared on a chart, the Time Frame of which is 6 times bigger that the Time Frame of your current chart. Getting a painted candle and an arrow, and especially a white dot, is a great info if that happens during a session - the first 3/3.5 hours of London Open, or the overlap between London and New York. Out of these time windows momentum appearing does not mean much, since there is a lot less volume involved, and it is relatively easy to change it - meaning that "momentum" appearing out of session could be the result of some mid level player getting involved, and not really the Big Boys. Of course, looking with a doubt on bright candles appearing out of session, matters for price action traders, probably scalpers could use the appearance of a bright colored candles and an arrow at any time.

I personally want to use this info in order to try to identify swing trades in advance - this is the main direction that I am trying to pursue. Also it may help me to decide in what direction price may move on Fridays - target traders as a rule do not trade during the New York session on Fridays, since during that time the Big Boys finish their weeks, and very unexpected moves could be produced - for example last Friday I expected GBPCHF to go down, or may by slightly up, and actually it shot up like a rocket. The idea is to try to figure out the way Trending Weeks (weeks when Price did a sizeable vertical move - it should be close to the Weeklt ATR, or higher thatn it - about that another time) and Trading Weeks (when the Weekly Total Price move was close to 0) follow each other. If the current week seems to be a Trending week, then during the NY session on Friday price should move towards the Weekly ATR price value; if the current week seems to be a Trading week, then during NY session on Friday price should be moving towards the Weekly Opening price.

 
Rookie

very good Vess, I have been so busy and no time for the open house, all consolidations no matter the time frame end in a breakout, at that moment is when the momentum is the greatest. The trick for traders is not to get caught in a flash breakout. Recognizing the zig-zag of a flash breakout becomes important. Unless of course, the trader has a great deal of equity to ride that out....::))

Conversely, all trends come to rest in consolidation and the decision is then made which way to go, up, down or sideways. The slope will p[rovide the strength of the momentum.

Anyway, just more fodder for thought.

Have a great week!

 
vesskrastev

Ed, completely agree with you. By the way, if you missed the NY session, you can watch its recording, and also the recording of the Live Room Recap - it does take some time for it to get posted (web providers issues, not ProAct), but it gets posted in a few hours. Also you can watch the recordings of the previous days - but that is available to you only until you are a guest, or a demo trader. After the end of the Open House usually you are offered the opportunity to stay for free for a little bit more (I did all of that), but in a while if you want to continue using the charts, and the materials, and the Live Rooms, you will have to start paying for that. We do pay $65/month to use the Alveo charts, ProAct is more expensive, but in my opinion totally worthed. I am not trying to convince you in anything, just trying to give you all the important information, and also to encourage you to take full advantage of the free ride.

Screenshot (698).png
 
Rookie

Thanks, Vess, appreciate the thoroughness.
I have had to move my son, his family and the mother-in-law with family, recuperating this week or at least I'd like to think so.

 
vesskrastev

The Next Step In Compiling My Statistics

Step 1 is ongoing - recording roughly twice a week the Daily ATR and the Weekly ATR values - the Daily ATR comes from the ProAct app, and the Weekly ATR comes from two sources - originally just from the software, provided in the charts, and later on to this were added the values from the ProAct's (Jerry's) app. Also the Actual Weekly ATR is recorded, as well as the Total Price Move for the Week - both come from measuring the Weekly candle, but the Actual Weekly ATR includes the wicks, and is always positive, while the Total Price Move for the Week measures the body only, and has a sign - positive for a move down, and negative for a move up. The first step is recorded in an Excell file named "Weekly and Daily ATR".

Step 2 was to separate the Actual Weekly values for the pairs - the Actual Weekly ATR, and the Weekly Total Move. It is ongoing too - the file is named "Weekly Actual ATRs and Total Moves".

Step 3 is the next step - to go on a Daily level. It breaks down to single currency pairs. Of course, I cannot do that for all the 20 pairs. It will be done just for the pairs that I am interested in - the GBP pairs, and also EURAUD. So far I plan to do it for 7 pairs, but it may not go all the way - it takes a lot of time to do that. The name of that file is "Daily Currency Statistics."

My idea is to have all the info for my pairs in Step 3 - the "Daily Currency Statistics". The first step is to record the Daily moves of the pair - Actual Daily ATR and the Total Daily Move. After that the Weekly and the Daily ATRs are added - for the purpose of comparisson, and in a while to try to predict what the pair would do during the week. I have to be able with a single glimpse to assess what the pair is doing - that means that the Weekly data must be added too - the Actual Weekly ATR and the Total Weekly Move (coming from step 2). The last stage in compiling the "Daily Currency Statistics" is to record the Price moves within the day - for example for the GBP pairs is very important to know what Price did since London Open.

So far I just finished compiling "Daily Currency Statistics" for GN - and that is without the price moves within the day (since London Open). . All the 3 files are attached below.

AttachmentSize
Weekly and Daily ATR.xlsx 100.81 KB
Weekly Actual ATRs and Total Moves.xlsx 69.57 KB
Daily Currency Statistics.xlsx 21.99 KB
 
vesskrastev

Adding Some Visuals to the spreadsheet

Within the spreadsheet I added weekly charts of the Actual Daily ATR, of the Total Daily Price Move (Open - Close), and of the number and the timing of the days, when the Daily ATR was hit. The last set of weekly charts ("Daily ATR Hit") is a clustered column chart. I also included 2 values - 1 if price hit the Daily ATR, and 0.8 if price hit the 80% of the ATR (80% is very close to the 0.786 fib - 78.60%). The Daily ATR Hit charts are quite a few - originally I was not recording the Daily ATR, since my attention was focused on the Weekly ATR. I will ask Jerry if he has a record of the Daily ATrs - if he has, then I could fill the empty spaces. Also in the column of the Daily ATR I embedded the Average for the Week of the Actual Daily ATR.

Again I had barely any time so far to search for patterns, but a few things are obvious. If price finished the week on low Total Daily Move, it almost always strats the next week on a low Total Daily Move. Also if price ends the week on a high Total Daily Move, it will start the next week on high Total Daily Move. Starting the week on low Total Move means that by WED and THUR te Total Move will searge, quite often to diminish again on FRI - BUT sometimes the High Total Move streak may continue, and even get more pronounced on FRI. Of course, starting the week on High usually means going lower midweek. There is also another pattern: High - Low - High, and vice versa: Low - High - Low. My impression is that there is a some kind of an average, and it is purcued for the week - that causes the sequence of High - Low, etc.

Of course, the summer period is obvious - and I don't have enough data on the winter time before that.

Another interesting thing - regarding the number of days the Daily ATR was hit. When looking for price reaching 100% of the Daily ATR, it comes out that this occurred roughly 50% of the days - 2 to 3 days in a week. When including into that the 80% hit, that increases the number of times it happened during the week to somewhere between 3 and 4 times a week - or roughly may be slightly more that in 60% of the cases. Of course, in which days it happened, varies - and that is what the clustered column chart shows.

I still have to work on the statistics of the hourly moves of price - wht it does during the day. Particularly I am interested what price (GN) did from London Open - how many times it hit 144 pips, how many times it hit 89 pips, how many times New Yourk Open caused major changes in the pattern the price was drawing, etc. So far it is all about GN, but some of the other GBP pairs should follow. I am only interested in the high volatility pairs - to this eventually I will add EG, and definitely at the end EA should be added - I should have the ability to move away from the GBP pairs in ceratain occasions (also EA seams to be run by very meticulous bankers - they try calculate and fulfill all of the moves very carefully).

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Daily Currency Statistics.xlsx 463.74 KB
 
Rookie

Vess, that is a great addition to your following, I think most of the "why" you have pointed out can be attributed to the news.

So let me ask with this volume or work how many trades do you take daily - weekly? and maybe a win/loss ratio?

 
mdpoettcker

Thanks for the insightful information now I have more ammo to stay in the game with the big boys. Good trades ahead. Thanks again vessKrastev.

 
vesskrastev

@ Rookie

Ed, actually the last week I only did slightly more than the required 5 trades to stay in the game - it was the Fast Track time in ProAct, and I spent 3 mornings on that. May be this coming week will be spent mostly on data gathering again (shame - it is a great time to trade GBP pairs), or may be I will spent couple of nights on trading - time management is a very hard thing for me, I still have to do my 85-90 hours in the car. I think I got a very important insight about how to start swing trades (it requires verification). So, for the last couple of weeks I decided to finally do my homework on learning the personality of GN - it is a single ocasion of time investment. Doing all of that for the other pairs will happen a lot faster, since the pattern of what to do and how to do it is already established.

Ed, thanks for mentioning the news - it may as well be the answer, I did not think about that.

@ mdpoettcker

You are welcome. There is more data coming - to me it is very important to know the statistics, since it gives me the confidence to do what is necessary - currently I am trying to master the trading of the GBP pairs "bursts," starting usually at London Open once or twice a week (during the busy "seasons"), and also to get a usable Swing Trades startegy.

 
vesskrastev

GN, the Crazy, Volatile and Unpredictabe pair - Actually Works Like a Clock

On September 20th GN started a move down and so far did about 500 pips. The attachments below show that this move was perfectly calculated..

Attachment 1 shows in detail (on a 10 min chart) how the first move down unfolded. The yellow horizontal lines (S1, S2, and S3) are from Scott's HSI indicator - it measures the waves in the development of the price move. The blue lines are from my Banker's Promise (BP) trade, and the white dotted lines (on the left side) are the fibs of the first small move down.

The First Big move down (marked with the long black line on the left) ended on the -1.270 extension of the small move 1. The Big Move consisted of 5 smaller moves down (the last one I forgot to mark with #5). It is obvious how each one of these 5 small moves ended on a special place. Normally Move 1 could be with any length, and the remaining moves wiould allign with different fibs of Move 1. In our case though even Move 1 was not random (it is never random - it is calculated so that all of the remainimng moves will end on a preplanned values) - it ended exactly on S1 (S1 is preset, it does not depend on the price move). Move 2 ended on the -0.270 extension of Move 1; Move 3 ended on the confluence of S2, the -0.618 extension of Move 1, and the 1.270 fib of the BP. Move 4 ended on the 1.618 fib of the BP, and Move 5 ended on the -1.270 extension of the Move 1.

Attachment 2 shows how these 5 small moves fall into a 5 waves pattern. Everything in Forex is fractal, and we can see the Elliot's 5 waves on ever smaller scales. All the pairs love the 0.618 and the 1.618 fibs - they reflect the Golden Mean. 0.618 is the ratio of dividing a Fibonacci's number to the next bigger Fibonacii's number, and 1.618 is the opposite ratio - dividing the bigger number to the next smaller number. The GBP pairs specifically love these 2 fibs. Attachments 3, 4 and 5 show how the 5 smaller moves down, discussed above, could be represented by 3 combined moves, each one of which retraced to 0.618, and later on extended to 0.618 (-0.618).

Isn't that amazing? The first small move was exactly equal to S1, the combined move was exactly the -1.270 extension of the first small move (of S1), and consisted of 3 moves, each one of then retracing to 0.618, and after that extending to -0.618! By the way, 1.270 is roughly equal to 2 X 0.618. 618 fib, 618 fib, and again, and again. The crazy GN, behaving like a purring cat? The Big Boys do with GN exactly what they want. The important thing is to try to learn their graphical and mathematical language (the fibs are pure math).

Did everything finished with the first big move? No, of course. On attachment 6 you can see how the first big move was retraced exactly to the 786 fib, and how on the way down Price acknowledged ALL of the yellow, blue, and white lines, especially the confluences of them, and of course - all of those 0.618, and again 0.618, and 1.270 which is actually 2 X 0.618.

Attachment 7 shows us the progression to the current price level. There were 3 boxes (flags) where the Big Boys accumulated orders for the next move down, and, of course, just by a pure coincidence, these boxes were framed each and every time by 2 fibs. The previous price moves carry information about the future moves. You can see, I applied fib retracements/extensions (in this case I was interested in the extensions only) to 2 of the previous moves - the 2 black diagonal lines above.

Currently Price draws a perfect descending wedge - the ochra lines to the right, ammasing strength for a break down through the 1.9500 line. When price does that, I would expect it to bounce off 3 times (may be just 2?) off of the the -1.270 fib, off of the confluence of the blue 4.236 fib and the 0.618 white fib, and also off of the S6 level. The first time price may go through these levels, but without a doubt very soon will reverse and go above them. They are very significant barriers, especially the bottom 2, and will definitely be acknowledged by price.

Will GN continue down, past the S6 level? S6 is at 1.9394. If price goes decisively below S6, it means that the Big Boys have in mind getting to S7, which is slightly above 1.9000. The next BP fib, after 4.236, is 6.854 - it is at 1.9111. Could the Big Boys master a run to 1.9100-1.9000? Yes, they could, GN has no problem reaching S7 (or R7 in the case of a move up). Will they do it? At the moment we do not know. Attachment 8 shows on a 60 min chart a clear diversion - diversion means that the End is near, not that it is here, it means that price is in a search of a bottom, and as soon as it finds it the move will be over. Considering the Diversion, and the many, many barriers below (the bright blue horizontal lines), it might be that the end of the GN move down will happen when it hits S6. Next week the charts will show us what will happen.

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broslansky

Vess,

Comparing your post with tryguylm1's post:

https://apiaryfund.com/forum/part-time-funded-trader

How far would you say the GBP NZD pair is headed? From the little I understand of these range-bound ("fixed") pairs, I'm guessing the following. See attached.

Looking forward to your commentary.

Thanks!

GBP NZD Prediction.JPG
 
vesskrastev

Hi broslansky!

As Scott loves to say, the Big Boys did not email me to tell me what they intend to do. We can only base our conclusions on what the charts tell us. What the immediate future holds, IMHO, I posted yesterday. The close targets on the way down are 4.236 fib of BP - at 1.9441, and S6 - at 1.9394. Currently price is about 100 pips above 4.236, and about 140 pips above S6, with a divergence on 60 min - divergence in our case means that there probably will be one more move down in search of the bottom (I used probably just because we are never 100% sure, otherwise the Big Boys would never miss a huge target, S6, coming so close to it - and 100-140 pips is nothing for GN - if in doubt just look at the previous week).

After hitting S6 there will be a sizeable bounce back, that always happens after hitting a major target. What will happen after that? Lets look in the close past for clues. Attachment 1 shows the GN move down from 10/10/2018 to 12/3/2018 - for a total of 2,199 pips, down to about S8.66 and slightly below the 6.854 BP fib. The scale of S1, S2,.... is fixed, while the fibs of BP depend on the first move after the reversal, on which they are based - when you chose the proper first move, it will give you a personalized long term map of the unfolding move, while the Sn/Rn give you the absolute scale.

Attachment 2 shows the GN move down from 5/7/2019 to 7/29/2019 for a total of 1,743 pips, down to S8 and 4.236 fib of BP. As we can see, GN can in a matter of couple of months plunge down for about 2,000 pips, that is not a problem for GN. Why 2,000 seems to be the limit for a"normal" move? I have an idea about tha, just an idea - the "normal" moves, initiated by the Big Boys, should not change the value of the currency by more than 10%. For EU roughly 1,000 pips would change the value of the dollar by about 10 cents, but GN is a cheeper pair (1 pip of GN is worth about 50% less than 1 pip of EU - remember, this is just a very, very rough estimate - therefore probably around 2,000 pips should be the limit of the "normal" business moves for GN, unless the Big Boys risk the intervention of the Central Bankers, something which they try to avoid at any price).

Based on the above said, GN still has a lot of room to move down in the current move. It should bounce up strongly after reaching S6 - 1.9394. After that probably it will go down again. Attachment 3 shows that on the 240 min chart (H4) there is a convergence for a move down. You can also see that the S6 and S7 levels coincide with previous Support/Resistance levels. S7 matches exactly the bottom from 9/2/2019, and S6, although close to the tops from the end of August, 2019, actually comes from 6/13/2019. GN definitely could do the distance between S6 and S7, and S7 at 1.9017 is still only about halfway to the bottom of about 1.8300 from the last 2 big moves down. What needs to be mentioned - price usually makes fast moves in the areas where it previously moved fast (like what it did from 9/12 up, and then down to the current price, and in the near future down to S6), and moves slow in the areas where it used to move slow - like it did in the area between S6 and S7 on the last way up. Therefore, once price moves decisively below S7, I would expect it to go up and down many times - in other words it will probably create another huge box, very similar to the box it created on the way up between 8/22 and 9/12

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waiel.ali

Congrats and best of luck!

 
vesskrastev

Brexit and the GBP pairs

I am sick and tired of expecting at any moment some crazy reaction of the market because Boris Johnson said or did something, or because his European counterparts did the same. It is already October 1st, hopefully on October 31st, a month from now, Brexit will finally be over. There will be some aftershocks after that, without any doubt, but it will be a part of the process of everything winding down.

I think (and I may be completely wrong) that on a long run Brexit will be positive for the GBP. On the other hand, the immediate events around Brexit (when it finally hits) will bring down the GBP pairs quite a lot. Ther is an opinion among the successful GBP traders that the GBP Big Boys in the time immedeately preceding Brexit would drive their currencies higher, so that the resulting Brexit caused fall would not be that much devastating. Could it be that this push higher already started (or is about to start)? We will see shortly.

 
Rookie

Vess ultimately I agree but not yet, the monthly chart attached shows longer-term bearish slow slope.

GBPUSD Long Term.PNG
 
vesskrastev

I agree Ed, it is too early yet, but IMHO it will for sure happen later in the month.

 
jonpaarlberg

Thanks for the view into what the institutional investors are doing. That is a huge interest area of mine.

 
vesskrastev

How Do the Trading Days Work

I have mentioned earlier in my tread - in Forex there are 2 types of days (and weeks also) - Trending Days and Trading Days. We have a Trending day (or a week) when from the beginning of the day to the end of the day Price travels a sizable vertical distance, usualy equal, or close to the Daily/Weekly ATR. A Trading Day (Week) we have when at the end of the day (week) Price stands exactly (or quite close) to the value it had at the beginning of the day (week), in other words when the total vertical distance Price travelled throughout the day (week) is very close to 0.

I was spending some time on the chart of EN when it hit me exactly how the Trading days (weeks) work. There is nothing secret there, I just never thought about that. On the other hand, after recognizing that pattern, it gets a lot easier to trade.

The big boys cannot stay all day long on one place, they need to move price. If after 24 hours Price should be at approximately the same place, then at least one change of direction during the day is necessary, and the perfect case is with 2 changes in direction. Trading days happen very often when the BBs draw a symmetrical triangle (wedge). All of the price patterns have a resolve, meaning after their completion price tends to move in a certain direction. The symmentrical wedge is the only pattern without resolve - after it price may break out in either direction. There is a slightly higher chance that it may continue in the same direction as the direction it followed on the way to the sym. wedge, but it doesn't count for much.

When for whatever reason the BBs temporarily cannot make up their minds about which direction they should push the price, they start drawing a sym. wedge. As the wedge keeps getting narrower, the vertical movements of price keep getting smaller - they spend less money than normal, they are realizing an "economy" of funds. The result of that is that the Daily ATR decreases. When the tip of the wedge gets really small, they expect somebody to make up their mind and to finally push in one dirrection, and the rest immediately join the move - the sym. wedge "explodes" - they all have extra money to spend, due to the "economy" from the previous stage.

On the final stages of a sym. wedge there are a lot of tarding days. Attachment 1 shows us what EN has been doing during the last couple of weeks (on my charts a black vertical line marks the beginning of a new trading day - NY Close - and the blue vertiva\cal lines mark the beginning of a new week). The screenshot is from yesterday (today price continued doing exactly the same thing). The thick white lines show you what price did throughout the days - Mon, Tue, Wed, and Thur - and the thin horizontal dotted white lines show you the range of the total price move for the day. The Actual ATRs were: Mon - 109, Tue - 91, Wed - 99, and Thur - 109, while the total price moves (Open - Close) were: Mon - 22 pips, Tue - 38, Wed - 41 , and Thur - 26. As you can see, they were not Zero, but compared to the Daily ATR of 116, they were quite low, which is the definition of a Trading day.

Now comes the interesting part. You can see that on Mon and Thur Price changed direction twice, while on Tue and Wed it changed direction once. The yellow horizontal lines to the right of Thur are marking the Daily ATR for moves in either direction. What did price do on Thur? After the beginning of the day it moved Up for 1/2 of the ATR, then revesed and moved Down for the whole length of the ATR, then reversed and moved Up (again) for 1/2 of the ATR. This way the BBs did twice the ATR - in direction Up, and in direction Down - while remaining at about the same place after 24 hours of moving price. Practically the same thing happened on Mon.

I used to wonder what to expect when Price suddenly changed direction seamingly halfway through the move that I was expecting it to do. Now I realized - if Price moves one way approximately 1/2 of the Daily ATR, then it changes direction, goes the opposite way again 1/2 of the ATR, AND passes that starting point and continues - then quite probably we have a Trading day - I could expect Price to continue the move until it reaches approximately the Daily ATR, and then to reverse again for 1/2 of ATR (or so). In other words the pattern is: 1/2 of ATR Up, 1 ATR Down, and 1/2 of ATR Up again. Of course, it works exactly the same when the starting move is Down. Also, instead of the starting and ending !/2s of ATR, we might have (for example): 0.4 ATR Up - 1 ATR Down - 0.6 ATR Up. Or - 0.3 ATR Up - 1 ATR Down - 0.7 ATR Up.

Recognizing that Trading Day pattern can definitely help when Price starts making unexpected U turns on you, especially when a symmetrical wedge is being drawn.

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Rookie

Interesting, very interesting food for deeper investigation and thought.
Thanks, Vess.

 
sherpalm03

Good luck indeed! Fascinating. I know about the whales and the plankton if I may. I've heard 95/5% as well. Either measurement, the big moves are when the whales take action. I see price movement in channels in larger size waves, then it tightens up into consolidation. Once it does that, which I have learned is caused by the Big Boys and their hidden orders, then action soon ensues. I started using Fibs as well, taking a course through a trade school where I learned about trading and stock options several years back. I am amazed at how accurate they are, especially after trying so many different indicators that just weren't getting me to where I needed to be. Now I just use Fib Retracements, Extensions, Price and Time confluences, Fib Angles and Stochs. I am gaining over 100 pips easily in a day, but I am still working on not doing the "Wait and See" maneuver.

 
vesskrastev

@ jonpaalberg, @ Rookie, and @ sherpalm03

Thank you for commenting! The BBs will do what they always do - they heavily manipulate the market. They cannot completely control the market, but come quite close to that. In order for successfully communicating their intentions to the other institutional traders - not to us, the retail traders, they call us the "dumb money" - they have to use something objective. Here comes into use the "graphical language" - trends and boxes, heartlines of the trends and their eqivalent for the boxes, price patterns and MACD. The other "objective component" is the use of math - here come the mighty fibs, all the variety of them, and the ATRs. Actually all of that is math - the "graphical language" is the visible math, and the fibs and ATRs are the "invisible" math. By the way, when Price breaks out of a range, when it breaks through a Single Line Trend Line, it basically always goes to a certain fib - which fib of which move, that is the job of the trader to figure out (that is how far I am allowed to go).

All of the above applies to the vertical moves, to the way Price moves up and down - but not only to that. The nicest thing is that math could be used with almost the same precision to the horizontal moves, to the way Time plays into our trades. I started venturing into that, and there were some very interesting results, but unfortunately I have no tools available for use in that area, and at the moment I don't have the time for the endless manual counting of candles. Jerry promised to do something about that, but he is very busy. I hope that at some point he will make me a great present - a tool for applying fibs to the Time sequense.

 
vesskrastev

Trading Price "Pulses" Versus Swing Trading

As Allen mentions many times in his treads - "Ichimoku material and my E-book", and other treads also - and as the BBs rules dictate, a favorable Reward/Risk ratio can come only on bigger price moves (if you look for R/R ratio of 3:1 you need at least 55 pips move). The GBP pairs, and EA, EN, and sometimes EJ, can provide that. Once or twice a week GN, GA, and GJ would provide you with the opportunity to "ride" a 100+ pips run - could reach 200+ pips in a few hours, or even 300+ - when amplified by news events, as on Mon (close to 400 pips move in a day).

Trading these "pulses" is a very tempting and rewarding opportunity. Of course, you have to identify exactly when would they happen, and to be able to "stay in the saddle" during the ride. Also dealing with volatilities like that is dangerous - what if it goes the wrong way? The opportunity to "make a killing" on a move like that comes from running multiple trades during that move. There are techniques to help you to identify the possible starts of a "pulse" like that, thre are also techniques to help you "stay in the saddle." These are not common, or easily discoverable techniques, but they do exist. As anything worthed, they require time and effort to get familiar with their use. What is impossible to avoid, at least while trading with Alveo, is to avoid the need to actively manage these trades while they are unfolding. One can plan the entries in advance and enter them, but it is impossible in Alveo to have an automatic modification of the Stop Loss of the existing trades at the time when the new trades go into effect. There is a perfect program to do that - it can do absolutely everything you would like to do yourself if you were in front of the computer screen at that moment, and it would be a PERFECT EXECUTION - it is called Synergy, and I bought it - but it is designed to work with MT 4 (or MT 5), and Alveo is not compatible.

Basically all of these "pulses" happen during the London session, and I cannot actively mange trades during this time. I can take a look now and then, can do something now and then, but I cannot continuously monitor and manage the trades, and cannot have Synergy do that for me. I tried to trade the "pulses", with a varying success, but due to my inability to actively manage the trades, the results were varying also. If I am a full time trader, lets say when I become a full time trader, with all of 24 hours of the day in my disposal, trading these pulses will become the best thing to do, but for now it is not - not under the current restrictions on my time (successful limo drivers in the USA Midwest operate mainly during the London session).

What is left in this case is the Swing trades. They are unfolding for a few days, generally it takes a week (or more) for them to finish. It is enough to look at them a few times a day, but it is not necessary to stay with them all of the time. The pairs, which are good for "pulse" trading, generally are not very good for Swing trading, and vice versa. That is not an absolute rule, nothing in Forex works 100% of the time. Some of the GBP pairs may have quite good swing trades, if the 240 min chart is traded, but generally that requires a really high Stop Loss. For the last 2-3 weeks I tried to get a first impression on which pairs are good for swing trading. I am not done yet with that first look (it consumes a lot of time to do that), and after the first look is completed, a second, more in depth look will follow for the best candidates. Shortly I will post what came out of that.

 
Rookie

Good digging Vess, this indicator is available on TVC also, if you had, for example, an Oanda account, you can link them for order execution.
Just a thought.

 
jdiazfar

This is a lot of information. Outstanding, thank you for sharing.
I will keep following this subject.

 
vesskrastev

Ed, Synergy is not an indicator. It is a program, which can execute ANYTHING instead of you. You can program anything, and Synergy will look for when the circumstances you described would happen, and then would execute your commands. It is amazing, it is the best that exist in that area. If you preplanned everything about your trade (trades), you can enter it in Synergy, and it will do it for you. Once you entered the commands into Synergy, you can completely forget about the trade - Synergy will do everything for you, will do it better than you, because it never sleeps, gets tired, goes to the washroom, etc. The only problem is that Alveo is not MT4 compatible, and Synergy works with MT$.

 
Rookie

Thx Vess, what is the URL for this program?

 
Kevin Osei-Kofi

Mind = Blown

This strategy is much similar to my mentality only about 100 times more precise and detailed. I have been attempting to TARGET trade this whole time and I think he reveals a weakness of mine. I have not spent enough time studying Fibs and Elliot waves...

 
vesskrastev

@ jdiazfar and @ Kevin Osei-Kofi

Thanks. It is a lot of information, and it takes a lot of time for this information to switch in your brain from: "Interesting. May be..." to "Absolutely no doubt about that" to "I need to learn every small detail about it" and finally to actually getting there.

@ Rookie

Ed, below is the link to the website. Synergy is great, all the ProAct traders who score multiple hundreds of pips a night, all the way to a couple of thousand pips a night , use it. It is not cheap though. They used to sell a life time license for $500, ProAct had a discount of $100. About 3 months ago they discontinued the lifetime licenses (one time purchase fee) and switched to a monthly subscription (a lot more expensive variant). Couple of days before the cutout date I bought a lifetime license for $397, but haven't used it yet. I shoud start using my free demo MT4 account from Alpari in order to get familiar with the use of Synergy. As far as I have heard so far, the only problems with Synergy arise from Windows doing an automatic update and disrupting the work of Synergy. Luckily on my laptop I have to autorize the start of the update it will not sstart automatically in the middle of the night.

 
Rookie

thanks, Vess but no link here.

 
vesskrastev

Ed, I am getting old - sorry - here is the link.

https://www.pecuniasystems.com/fxsynergy

Also attached are my XCEL charts.

AttachmentSize
Weekly and Daily ATR.xlsx 105.53 KB
Weekly Actual ATRs and Total Moves.xlsx 72.12 KB
Daily Currency Statistics.xlsx 508.94 KB
 
Rookie

Thanks, Vess, and aren't we all!

 
vesskrastev

Swing Trades on EU

I started my explorations into swing trades with EU, since it is the most popular pair in Apiary, and also seemed to me that EU would work well for swing trading. Because of that the EU screenshot scontain less info than the following pairs - I was just trying to figure out what to record. The 240 min charts allow me to go back in time 22 months roughly (1 year and 10 months), and the 60 min charts allow me to go back 5.5 months, so understandably I would start with the 240 min charts - they also allow me to see at a glance bigger moves, although the 60 min charts show more details.

The yellow horizontal lines, marked S1, S2,...Sn or R1, R2, ...Rn come from Scott's HSI indicator, and the bright blue lines come from mine BP (Banker's Promise) trade. It is obvious that the HSI is a lot more important, although BP fibs hit pivots quite often too, and especially important are the good confluences between both. Also in the case of the 240 min charts it is obvious that the swing trades quite often match the wave structure of the developing move. Another important thing to mention - the HSI, being an absolute Fibonacci based indicator, allowes after a major Top/Bottom to measure the developing Price move on any pair - you can measure it in pips, or in the Sn/Rn level hit, or in both. The amount of pips covered in the move is relative - for different pairs the same amount of pips means quite a different level of completion of the move, but the Sn/Rn level, being an absolute value, says the same for any pair. Of course, the pairs with higher volatility allow for a higher maximum level of HSI to be hit (Sn or Rn), but after you get familiar with your pair you know what to expect - meaning you can evaluate the current Price move, comparing it to the maximums that this pair could do.

In this post only the really big picture will be covered, the details will follow on different posts. Attachment 1 shows the first big move on the 240 min chart - starting approximately 22 months ago. Usually Price has a very rough time getting through the first 2 levels of HSI (S1,and S2, or R1 and R2), and that area is generally not a very good place for swing trades. From R2 to the first top at approximately R6.5 Price took about 5 weeks to cover about 710 pips. To me that vertical distance consists of 3 swing trades (notes 1, 3, and 5) and 2 correctional moves - 2 and 4. Correcctional move 2 is a big bull flag, and correctional move 4 is a very big pole flag (it has a special name, but that does not change the nature of it - a continuation pole flag). It is obvious that the 5 notes actually describe the 5 waves of a trending move.

Attachment 2 shows the next 3 weeks - basically covering the time it took Price to draw a second top. For the first 2 weeks Price did a 3 waves Prechter move down to the S4.7 (320 pips). After that it took 1 week to climb back and slightly overshoot the first top. On the attachments for this post - all four - I have all the important info, I made these attachments now. PB means a Pull Back (the biggest one, the one we have to consider). The attachments for the next posts were made earlier, the notes on them will be different.

Attachments 3 and 4 actually show the big picture. Attachment 3 shows a 14.5 weeks move down to Support level 7.0 (S7), S7 (or R7) is a huge move for EU, but the move did not stop there. Attachment 4 shows the continuation of that move - from S7 to S8. It took 1.5 years for EU to cover the distance of 8 Support levels. The distance from S7 to S8 took about 450 days Both moves - from 0 to S7, and from S7 to S8, are big enough, and long enough, to be looked upon in details. For example in attachment 3 the move starts with a 9 weeks symmetrical wedge, which reaches level S5 - there are plenty of swing moves in that wedge alone, and the following swing move from S4 to S7, which can comfortably be divided into 2 swing moves, is a huge move. Also in the S7-S8 move, which ended on September 30th 2019, there are plenty of swing moves.

The idea, after looking in detail in the smaller swing trades, is to figure out what is the average distance a swing trade in EU travels, from which Support/Resistance level it starts, what size PBs could be expected, and at what levels. What are the circumstances around the start and the end of that swing trade? Statistics usually works well for that, and getting these statistics is what I am trying to do.

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