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The confidence of a TARGET trader

 
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vesskrastev

The confidence of a TARGET trader

I moved relatively fast from scratch to Gold 1 - it took 6 months, but for 2 of them I was basically inactive. Thanks to the Beeline I learned so much, but if I have to summarize it, basically I learned a good way to find an Entry point for a trade. My problem was finding the appropriate Exit point. That problem was solved when I encountered the TARGET trading. It is based on the knowledge that 76% of the traffic on Forex is controlled by the top 15 institutional players (the Big Boys). Each one of their traders trades only one currency, and is a great specialists in that area - they know everything about that pair. That trader operates with 20,000 standard lots. It takes 35 million dollars to move the EURUSD for a half of a PIP during the New York session, and we know that they initiate moves of tens or even hundreds of PIPS. These institutional traders are after yours and my money - daily 400 billion dollars come to Forex from retail traders (their way of saying traders like you and me). 90% of the retail traders loose their money - that is why we strive to learn and to be among the other 10%.

The only way to be a successful trader is to figure out what the Big Boys are doing and to do the same (in the crypto space the Big Boys are called whales). The Big Boys (these same top 15 institutional players) create the structure of the market. When you look at a 4 hours chart, you can see how everything looks a lot more reasonable and organized. That is so because the Big Boys trade on the 4 hour charts and they enter and exit the market on the 60 min charts. Everything below 1 hour chart does not exist for them. They trade without stops and without days off - includung Saturdays ans Sundays. One Big Boy cannot accomplish his task alone and they need the cooperation of the rest. They cannot communicate openly with one another (the result will be a prison time) and therefore their language is the candles on the charts. There are two main pillars in that language - Fibonacci's ratios and Elliot Waves. Another major part in the language are the former Support/Resistance levels. Obeying the Fibs, the Elliot waves, and the support/resistance, is necessary in order for them to communicate their intentions to the other Big Boys. Of courrse, Big Boys fight with other Big Boys - one needs to move the currency cross higher, while the other needs it lower, and vice versa. But they are not in a hurry, form temporary alliances, and at the end accomplish their goals. A Big Boy cannot enter a trade with a target less than 55 PIPs. As opposed to them we can trade for 34 PIPS, or even 21 PIPs (smaller Fib numbers). The targets of the Big Boys are prices which correspond to Fib levels, or the side lines of the trends, boxes, etc. The former Support/Resistance levels are very important - they are the obstacles on the way to the targets. The first time when price reaches former Support/Resistance, it bounces off that barrier. After that price comes back and goes through it. After the barrier is removed in such a way, then a big open space appears until the next Fib level - and they love it, they poor money into it and we see how price quickly covers 55, or 89, or even 143 PIPS.

Deciphering that complicated chart language allowes us to understand the intentions of the Big Boys and to syinchronize ourselves with their actions. Playing along with the Big Boys is the only way to be successful on a long term. It does take a long time to master that art, and I am at the very beginning of that road. I found about Target trading in the beginning of Gold 1 and intentionally held myself on Gold 1 (the last simulated level) in order to learn more before I started trading real money. Now that wait is over. Attached is a screenshot with the result of my trading yesterday. Wish me good Luck!        

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Thu, 03/01/2018 - 9:48am
 
jarodtrading1

Great post. You have to follow the Big Boys and anticipate what they are going to do. If others are looking for training other than Apiary check out Urban Forex. Navin puts out a lot for free and his Mastering Price Action course turned my trading around. He will teach you to read the big boys using only price action. I am at the end of the course now and it has been the best money I have spent yet.

 
vesskrastev

Hi Jarod! Price action is the way to go, and any good course in price action is worth its money. Glad to hear that price action is making a difference in your trading. Many green pips to you (as Rookie says)!

 
vesskrastev

The Real Reason Behind Trump's Tariffs

I am subscribed to tons of interesting material, and basically I never read it. Now and then I will spend half a day trying to look through all of that, before I delete it. Today I wanted to delete "Whiskey and Gunpower," which I have never red from before, but before that I opened their last article. Surprise, surprise... Written very smartly, and giving you the unusual angle of viewing, which uncovers the deep truth - something which, in my opinion, is priceless. The article is definitely worth the time spent reading it, but the nutshell of it is below.

"The strategic meaning of Trump’s tariffs is to interrupt the flow of capital and leading-edge tech into China, while also pulling at least some manufacturing out of China to other places; ideally, back to the U.S., but at least to ABC – “Anyplace but China.”

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John.Fraine

"The strategic meaning of Trump’s tariffs is to interrupt the flow of capital and leading-edge tech into China, while also pulling at least some manufacturing out of China to other places; ideally, back to the U.S., but at least to ABC – “Anyplace but China.”

Makes perfect sense. I Hope it works

John

 
Mike Smith

garbage news anchors. pathetic low lives deliver the news for a living. skilless talking heads.
Although Anderson Cooper is a little entertaining :D

 
vesskrastev

@ LKSL

Yes, he is entertaining, on that I agree with you, on the rest I don't, but that is not important. I am not trying to make others to think like me, I am just trying to prove to them that fibs work actually really well in Forex trading, and that the price of any pair moves anything but random - it is always heavily manipulated by the Big Boys.

 
Mike Smith

"The strategic meaning of Trump’s tariffs is to interrupt the flow of capital and leading-edge tech into China, while also pulling at least some manufacturing out of China to other places; ideally, back to the U.S., but at least to ABC – “Anyplace but China.”

Was a quote from you? Ha, sorry I thought that came from a news anchor on tv ;D...that's why I said garbage news anchor.
I see I found the quote where you supplied that, it's from a daily email article.

I find when news anchors talk they're just trying to read off a teleprompt propaganda for the public ear (paid for by any particular plutocrat of the hour).

 
vesskrastev

No, the quote was not from me - it is from the article, but we do not need to spend any more time discussing it, we'd rather talk about trading.

 
Richard.P

Some interesting comments on the Euro from Adam Button at ForexLive.com

https://youtu.be/88dK1YFkKhY

 
vesskrastev

Yes, really interesting, thank you! I don't pay a lot of attention to the fundamentals, although they are very important. I am betting on a longer term slide down of EA, and comments on the EUR going down definitely help. Also, by tracking down the Trading Weeks ( the weeks, when price moved up and down inside the week, but the price at the end of the week roughly matched the price at the beginning) I am trying to get an idea when to expect Swing trades. I should start paying attention to the fundamentals. In your opinion, what is a good place to get reliable and condensed information regarding the expected future movements of the currencies?

 
Richard.P

I will often read Sive Morten at the Forex Peace Army:
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/threads/forex-pro-weekly-august...

 
FrankS

If the Forex market is as forward-looking as the futures markets of currencies, then watching futures on a technical (price dynamic) basis has those fundamental baked in or in process of being baked in.

 
vesskrastev

@ Richard.P and @ FrankS

Thank you guys!

USDX and EU today

USDX went down today, after bouncing off of the top of the box (attachment 1). MACD clearly confirms that - we have a break of the 0 line of MACD and also of T3 (attachment 2). The long term oscillator and Heiken-Ashi charts (circled in black) point down. Correspondingly EU made a turn up (attachment 3) with the long term oscillator and Heiken-Ashi pointing up, and MACD confirming - break of the 0 line in direction up, and also of T3 (attachment 4). The yellow lines on attachment 3 mark the daily ATR - yesterday's was not reached, and since NY will close in about 20 min, I think I can use the current price of EU to apply the new ATR, marked by the higher yellow line.

Tomorrow at 1 pm EST FOMC minutes will be announced. FOMC and the Non-Farm are the only 2 news events that can actually turn the markets long term, everything else is just a blip on the screen. Scalpers like to trade news events, but from the point of view of price action, I'd rather wait on the side until everything is over. News events, of course, could be traded even in price action - if they move price in the direction of the current move of price, which is what you are trading. If they move price countertrend, the fading of the news event could be traded - the way price comes back to where it was before the news event (if the news event moved price countertrend, the BBs always bring price back - that is with the exclusion of FOMC and Non-Farm).

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Rookie

Today the big move was news related over the border dispute in England and I think Irland an unannounced news bite.
I survived the first wave well but the second wave caused an outside range in both the EU and GA, quit at 10 am CDT in frustration.

Tomorrow might be a good day for non-experienced news traders to sit back and watch, in fact, Friday would be a good day for that also.

Vess, I have the suspicion that the BB are using news events to correct their positions to hit their goals. What do you think? does the ATR stuff support that type of occurrence?

 
FrankS

Bigger questions for me centers on whether the BBoys & Girls are trading (news and no-news alike) so as to offset positions already held or whether they are introducing new positions. News events appear to me to merely create an opportunity to speed up the process, provided the news and their plan is aligned. I doubt they wait very long for news events, as they do not know either which way it might go post-announcement; but once the news is out and if their alignment concurs, they may be in a better position to fade that news and go in the direction they wanted all along.

Now, if the price dynamics go opposite of the expected reaction to the news, then that theory would be further validated that they have the power and influence to overcome any news event. They just have to be patient for a short time. Thus, as with futures, options and stock trading, it's the market's reaction to the news that's always key.

 
vesskrastev

@ Rookie

Yes, it woll be a good idea for inexperienced traders ti stay aside during the FOMC.The ATR does not support them hitting their goals, the ATR merely reflects on what was the average amount of spending for a day, week, etc. The BBs make the ATR with their actions, and they know very well how much the ATR is.

@ FrankS

Yes Frank, for them the news events serve as a catalyst, a way to speed up the process, if the news events moves price in the direction they want. If the news event sebds price countertrend, then they fade the news event, meaning they trade the return of price back to the values from before the news. Also the BBs gladly take the money of the retail traders, who try to trade the event. They will create a whipsaw, roughly moving 15 to 2o pips in either direction, before taking controlof the situation. They can overcome, with time (no more than a day usually) any news event except the FOMC and the Non-Farm. They cannot completely control the market, but they can heavily manipulate the market.

 
vesskrastev

Where Do the BBs Prepare Their Currencies for the Big 2 - FOMC and Non-Farm

The answer is very simple - they move their currencies to a place, from which they can easily be moved in either direction. There are always some expectations regarding the outcome of these news events, but it is never a certainty, so the BBs get their homework done. What are the places that can allow them to move in eiter direction? They are the top/bottom of a box, the equilibrium line (marked in my charts with a green horizontal line), and there is also one pattern which provides that - the symmetrical triangle (wedge), which is characterized with uncertainty, and may break out in either direction.

If you look carefully at the bottom of anyone of my screenshots, you will see that the abbreviations for my currencies (what we call the Majors), starting from EU and going left, are: EU, GU, UCAD, UCHF, UJ, AU, EJ, GJ, and NU. Below are the screenshots for all of them (I don't have the space to go for the "exotics" also, although they show the same behavior). All of them show you examples of sym. wedges, equilibrium lines, and the last one is parked at the bottom of a box. Homework well done. Of course, that is just a pure coincidence, in Forex everything is random.... LOL

EU.png GU.png UCAD.png UCHF.png UJ.png AU.png EJ.png GJ.png NU.png
 
Rookie

Vess It will be interesting to look back at these charts next week after Presidents Trump Trade announcements this day.

 
vesskrastev

@ Rookie

Yes, it will be interesting to look at them next week. Meanwhile today Powell spoke, and sent the markets at tailspin. Yesterday Boris Johnson talked to Angela Merkel, and the GBP pairs went crazy. Big, big moves on a lot of pairs, while some moved just a bit. How come that some of them made huge moves, and others not? And those that made the big moves, how big were they actually? How do we measure these moves?

Attachments 1 and 2 show USDX - with the 3 clicks tool applied to 2 different moves, on a 10 min chart and on a 60 min chart. Both show the same result - USDX very slightly overshot the 4.236 fib and came back (the second screeenshot, the 60 min, was taken after the NY close, while the first one was taken during the time of the action).

Now lets take a look at EU - attachment 3. EU drew exactly the reversed figure of USDX and stopped at 4.236. Attachments 4 and 5 show EA and UCHF. Both moved to exactly 2.618 fib - due to the fact that the initial move (A to B) was a lot bigger than the corresponding moves of the other pairs. Attachments 6 and 7 show how UJ and CADJ, like the others, very happily moved to 4.236 also.

The last 2 attachments show us something different. AU and NU actually made almost no move, compared to the rest. Why? Both of them were already in a move down, and the move of USDX was forcing them to move up, in the opposite direction. They obliged unfillingly, for one hour only, and immediately reversed.

Huge move of USDX forced similar moves to the pairs, which were already in agreable moves, or were ready for a reversal in that direction. The 2 pairs, which were already in opposing moves, did not care much for what USDX was doing, and fought against the influence of USDX very successfully. Nothing surprising in that at all. The BBs use the news events as catalysts for a huge move, when that serves their intentions, and shrug them off, when the news events force them to move against their intentions.

Something else, very important. The BBs did not know what Powell was going to say, they might have had some expectations, but nothing was for sure. He said something which served them, and they took advantage of that immediately. Their targets were premediated, and these targets were not achievable in a single move, but with the help of Powell, they did it. That is why all of these moves ended exactly at big fibs. Despite the crazyness of the moment, the ends of all of these moves were right in the bull's eye. That is what the BBs do, business as usual.

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Mike Smith

hey vesskrastev,

just a quick question... do the BB's every eat here? ;D

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yourontheball

I have found the 1 HR charts to be very helpful
in closing successful trades
Also Support and resistance play a big part in my trades

 
vesskrastev

@ hackdie

Not yet, but I wouldn't mind. They might drop off a few secretes it is always easier to be told the info, instead of trying to get it yourself by sitting through the charts.

@ yourontheball

True, everything seems quite easier to grasp on 1 hr and 4 hr charts. And Support and Resistance are very important - it helps to remember that they are just fibs of previous price moves. As such, quite often they are reflected in the fibs of the current price moves - I would mark my fibs, look back and see that they actually hit major Support and Resistance levels.

 
vesskrastev

Bank's Influence On Forex

Probably most of you have already read this article from the Apiary Fund Blog. It was distributed via emails couple of days ago. The only reason I am posting it is because it says basically exactly what I have been saying all the time, with slightly less details. The author says "the big banks primarily trade off of support and resistance only," and it is completely true. With a risk to become boring, I will repeat once again - Support and Resistance levels are the fibs of previous price movements. It is very easy to check that when you go back in time in the charts. The nice thing is that these fibs of previous price moves reflect the plans of the BBs (long term plans and short term plans) and tend to show up in the current price moves also, i.e. the fibs of the current price moves quite often would identify some of the previous Support and Resistance levels. That is the dream of the lazy trader - instead of going back and searching for Support/Resistance, just click couple of times the Fibonacci's tool (tools), and they will show you some Support/Resistance levels. Of course, if your strategy is based on Support/Resistance, you'd rather meticulously check on these Support/Resistance levels.

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vesskrastev

Price Responding to News Events (Fundies) - How Does It Happen Generally

To me there are 2 types of Fundies (News Events) - scheduled announcements, and unexpected geopolitical events. For the scheduled anouncements usually there are some expected numbers to be anounced (although for quite a lot of them there are no estimates available). In this case the BBs are prepared for the event. If the anouncement matches (or gets close) to the estimate, the reaction to this Fundie is muted. If there is a big deviation between the estimate and the real figure, a big move results. In the case of Fundies, caused by unexpected geopolitical events, the reaction is always strong.

In the case of the scheduled anouncements, the BBs love to do a whipsaw - 15 to 20 pips up, and then the same down (or vice versa), in order to pick up the "donations" of the retail traders. After that, they will assume the real direction of the response to the Fundie. If that response matches their plans, they will use it as a catalyst for a strong movement, if not - within a day or so they will kill it, will move price back to where it started. When the Fundie was a catalyst for a strong move (unsustainable move, vertical, or very close to vertical), ALWAYS there will be a retracement. Usually the retracement is to the 0.382 fib, but rearly it could reach 0.500 (the 0.500 retracement is the "registered mark" for the regular moves - angle of movement around 45 degrees).

In the case of unexpected geopolitically caused Fundies, usually price takes off immediately and keeps pushing for 2-3 hours, after which starts the long dance of the retracement of that price move.

From the last 2 days, I will consider both the GBP and the USD caused huge moves to be geopolitical (caused by Boris Johnson and by Powell). How did they unfold? Lets take a look at GU and at EU. In the case of GU the Johnson's move had finished its retracement, true - after that the Powell's move started and it has not yet finished its retracement.

Attachment 1 shows the big details of the GU's "Johnson's" move - thrust up for 3 hours, quick retracement to 0.214 fib, then another thrust up for 4 hours, until the second top was reached, then 12 hours down, until the end of the retracement was reached at 0.500 fib. Attachments 2 and 3 show the retracement in bigger details on a 10 min chart.

Attachment 4 shows the bigger picture of GU since the last reversal happened on August 11th - a move up, followed by a big box, followed by a big ABC up, followed by an even bigger box (which had a big false breakout in direction down). Then we have the last 2 days geopolitically based price moves - they serve the BBs perfectly, since they "drew" the next big ABC up. The "Johnson's" move is completed - price retraced to 0.382, and then to 0.500, but the "Powell's" move is not yet complete - price only retraced to 0.214. When the markets open on Sunday we will see if the BBs did any moves to finish this during the weekend, or if they left it for the next week. In any case, price should retrace to 0.382 - that is what it does normally.

Attachment 5 shows us on a 10 min chart the details of the unfinished yet "Powell's" move of EU. Price moved to Top 1, retraced to 0.214, moved up to a higher Top 2, and retraced again to 0.214. Further retracements are necessary, and that is why I called it the "UnfinishedEU News Move".

In my experience, after the end of the total impulse move of the fundie, pice retraces to 0.214; then it resumes its original direction and gets again close to that Impulse end; then starts retracing again, crosses 0.214 but does not reach 0.382; then moves back again; bounces off of 0.214 and starts retracing until it reaches 0.382. Usually when price reaches 0.382 retracement, that signals the end of the retracement, and price assumes its course again. This is a very general way to describe it, and in any particular case (your favorite pair!) you have to do the home work and to get the fine details. Still, more or less, the way price reacts during and AFTER the end of the geopolitically based huge moves, is close to the way attachments 1 to 3 and the last paragraph describe it.

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vesskrastev

USDX and EU Today

Last week USDX moved sharply down. At the end of this move it briefly crossed the 4.236 extension fib of that move, made a 180 degrees turn, acknowledged again the 4.236 before crossing it on the way up, did the same for the 2.618 fib, and finally bounced down off the confluence of 2 fibs - the 0.618 retracement fib (2 clicks, the long black line), and the 1.618 extension fib of the move down. The oscillators and the Heiken-Ashi charts show a slight bias for a move up (attachment 1). On attachment 2 we can see that USDX broke through both the "0" line of the histogram of MACD and through T3 - on direction up, confirming what attachment 1 suggested. So far neither the break of the 0 line, nor the break of the T3, are very convincing. Time will show, but for the moment it seems that USDX may move up.

On attachment 3 EU is at a bounce point. The resistance zones, marked by the red rectangles, are formed by the fibs of the 2 moves up from the last week, and are confirmed multiple times. Based on the higher chance of USDX going up, probably EU will go down. Actually, untill I was writing all of that, EU broke through both T3 and the 0 line of MACD in direction down (attachment 4), which means that the move down had already started. Lets see how long would it last.

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FXGold54

Great thread :)

Allen

 
ttrtot

I like it, not sure I could trade on the 4hour chart don't have enough time and hate to walk away from the screen when trading.

 
vesskrastev

@ Allen

Thank you kindly Allen! Coming from you, it means a lot to me.

@ ttrtot

The fear of walking away from the screen is a major obstacle. If you are afraid to walk away, it means to me that you are a price action trader in your head may be, but not in your heart. I am still very often uncomfortable leaving the trades unattended, and that happens when I am not quite sure in my strategy, or when I I break the rules. Sitting in front of the computer screen, stairing at candles, and biting my nails, I consider a waist of time. That time is a lot better spent going in the past of my pairs and researching what exactly did they do in similar situations.

Regarding the 4 hr charts - actually it is a little bit different. On 4 hrs chart we study the long term plans of the BBs. After that we move to 1 hour chart in order to check what are they doing today. If, as a result of the 4 hrs and 1 hour charts analyses, was established that a possible trade exists, then we go to 10 min for the entry and exit.

 
vesskrastev

What Is GN Doing Now?

GN completed a long run up - from July 29th to August 27th, totalling 1,134 pips. It was a huge move, for a short time (GN is known for doing things like that) and, of course, it CANNOT finish with only one, or even two tops. I think the top was reached on August 27th, at 1.9414. What gives me the reasons to think that?

GN hit the top of the Daily chart box - marked by the dashed pink line. Also BP trade, applied to the first Impulse move Up and the following Retracement on 60 min chart (that is the 3 clicks tool, applied on these points) shows that the 6.854 fib was hit exactly on August 27th. Attachment 1 shows us that actually it was overshot by 14 pips, which is not easy to be shown on the screenshot, since I am trying to show the whole huge move, but I think we can forgive the BBs for going slightly over on a move of 1,134 pips. Taking away these 14 pips makes the move to end on 1,9400 - a perfectly round number, great for signifying the end of the move (combined with hitting the 6.854 super extended fib, which basically always signifies the end of the run).

The end of such a run WILL be marked by multiple tops. I think the ultimate top was 1.9414, and since then GN is dancing the dance of the Reversal. It will take some time to complete that dance. Attachment 2 shows that in details. In 3 hours price jumped down 231 pips (WOW!!!), covering in no time the distance from 0 to Support 4. Then it did ABC exactly to the confluence of 0.786 Retracement fib and S1 (Support1). Of course, this is a pure coincidence, as everything thety do (LOL). Last night price made the second big move down, the end of which marks a great symmetrical wedge, which by all means should break out down.

At the moment price is doing another ABC up, and again, absolutely coincidentally, the 0.786 fib target of that ABC move perfectly matches the S2. So until now within that sym. wedge price did 0 to S4, then up to S1, down back to almost S4, now is in the way up to S2, and after that it should resume its way down. By doing that dance price drew an almost perfect Head And Shoulders pattern.

GN should soon move decisively down, probably in a move comparable to the just finished move up - of course, geopolitical events may affect that, but probably will not stop it. Lately most of the GBP pairs have been moving in synk (EG, of course, doing the reverse). GN moving down, and so far also GA and GCHF doing that (I haven't yet looked at the rest of them) could mean that all the GBP is generally moving down, but I have to spend more time on that. For the moment I can say that, in my opinion, GN is starting a big move down.

GN has the fame of being wild and unpredictable. Is it really? Unfortunately it takes a long time and a lot of efforts to get familiar with the "language" of the BBs. Once that is done, the false excitement of trading goes away and is replaced simply by the boredom of waiting for your prefferd move, previously calculated, to come to you. I am not there yet, but am getting closer and closer.

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vesskrastev

USDX Moving Sharply Higher

During the last 5 hours USDX made a sharp move higher - attachment 1. Attachment 2 shows a convergence for the move up. For the last 30 min there was a retracement down - attachment 3, on a 10 min chart.

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Rookie

Ha ha Vess just wait until tomorrow when Trump decides to tweet about China again....LOL

 
vesskrastev

Trump definitely is a geopolitical factor. He plays the "Trump" card very loudly, and enjoys doing that!

 
vesskrastev

Big Move Down of GBP Last Night

There was a big move down of GBP last night, and it is still going on. The GBP pairs are all dancing the dance of the Reversal. Attachment 1 shows GN it did Move 1 and Move 2 Down (the big black arrows pointing down), each one followed by an ABC PullBack (the white lines). Moves 1 and 2 formed a box, after which price moved in a narrow horizontal box - both boxes marked by horizontal black lines. Last night, around 8 pm, GN started drawing the standard Break, Hook and Go pattern (the small black arrows at the right end). The Break part touched what I call the Line of Reversal (the long yellow diagonal line), the Hook went up, completing the upper diagonal line, thus forming a perfect symmetrical wedge. Symmetrical wedges explode - the Go portion, which started at London Open, and still has not yet finished its run. The target of the big time move is the confluence of a few fibs, the Daily ATR (the short horizontal yellow line), and the psychologically significant "round" number of 1.9100 - that confluence is marked by the red rectangle, which I use for marking the Resistance zones. After hitting the target, price will inevitably bounce up, and should reach the 0.382 reversal of that big move, which started at 2 am last night (CST, which is my local time of London Open).

I played that move (attachment 2), getting only a small portion of it (I still need more experience and confidence in doing that). The 30 pips in Pips Today was the second trade of the sequence - I forgot to change its Take Profit, and it closed at 30 pips only - if let run, it was going to show 116 pips, sitting betwen the top 2 trades. At 5:10 am I was still in front of my laptop, when price hit 1.9131 (attachment 1 shows the time when price was at 1.9136). At 5:40 am I closed all of the trades with price standing at 1.9146 (attachment 2). I was completely convinced that price would go down to 1.9100, and nevertheless I pulled the plug - chickened out because of a lack of experience (and sleep).. Price moving back 15 pips against me on 7 trades cost me 105 pips, and the "executed" 2nd trade would have been 127 pips at that time - that makes a total missed profit of 232 pips. All of that is counting on price "only" getting to 1.9131. Actually currently it is at 1.9079 - WOW, it went beyond the 1.9100 (attachment 3)- if the 8 trades (including the "executed" one) were allowed to run these 52 pips b/n 1.9131 and 1.9079, that would have added additional 416 pips. So, a total of missed profits of 232+416=648 pips. And, of course, if I did not chicken out, there would have been trades 9, and 10, and probably 11 added also - each one with diminishing returns, but still totalling about 90 pips probably. That would mean lost profit about 740 pips. Would have been nice...

Why do I write all of that? Just to show the potential of trading price action. Of course, I was completely aware that last night ALL of the GBP pairs were doing exactly the same thing as GN, but was afraid to go too "wide". Attachments 4 to 8 show you GA, GJ, GCHF, EG (of course, moving the opposite direction), and GU. I could have played all of them (or most of them), but I was afraid to do that. Nothing replaces experience, knowledge is an absolute must, but only time brings you experience. Today ProAct has no sessions because of the banking holiday, and tomorrow, I am sure, at least 10 ProAct traders will report making at least a 1,000 pips last night, a few of them - multiple thousands. And the most important thing - these are not strategies where you win a thousand, or loose a thousand. Since the "train" of trades took off at 2 am, I was never at loss, just the profit kept increasing. Attachment 9 shows my result - 370 pips, significantly less that the full potential of the last night London Open move (now the move is over at 211 pips, and GN does things like that quite often). Well, 370 pips is not bad neither, so may be better off the next time.

Screenshot (635).png Screenshot (627).png Screenshot (639).png Screenshot (629).png Screenshot (630).png Screenshot (631).png Screenshot (633).png Screenshot (634).png Screenshot (638).png
 
Rookie

Apparently I slept thru some very good momentum trades last night.

Maybe we should start a thread for a white space call out early warning system for price action traders.

The last time GBP did this I had my very bests day ever!

You did good Vess! Thx for the share.

 
vesskrastev

@ Rookie

Ed, the Wide Open Space is just one of the components of price action. It is based on Fibonacci's retracements and extensions. It is very important, but on its own it does not guarantee successful trade (trades). The rest of the puzzle has to fall in place also. I am happy to see that you consider yourself a price action trader.

GA and GN are always in the same train. GA also has a very good ATR, close to the one of GN. The good things about both of them are at least 2 - both use GBP (and the GBP pairs are the ones making big moves, unfortunately for everyone in USA that does not happen at a conmvinient time of the day), and they also use NZD and AUD - the advantage of them is that these currencies are traded all day long (not like most of the other pairs - being traded in one, or two sessions). Their main advantage is alsa a disadvantage - Brexit may cause chaos at any time. Hopefully in couple of months Brexit will be over.

To me the best alternative of GN and GA are EN and EA. I need to spend time on both of them, but they offer good places to trade when GBP goes through its convulsions. The next couple of pairs are GJ and EJ - here JPY comes into play, and that, of course, requires additional research. I completely forgot GCHF - a wonderful pair, to a big extend isolated from most of the majors (except GBP, of course), with a good ATR, and being traded in one session only - the London session. GU also provides opportunities, but GU is bound to USDX - when USDX sneezes, GU catches a full blown cold.

 
vinodvinod

Thank you vesskrastev. You covered some good ideas. I have been following the fibs but which pivots to follow is the key.
Best wishes.

 
Rookie

Vess, right on, fo me when not scalping it's all about white spaces and momentum, or if u prefer price and time cycles.

Lately, I have also avoided trading with any pair that has a spread of greatan than 1.1 as rule. Thus many of the GBP pairs are off my Apiary trading list.

 
vesskrastev

@ vinodvinod

You are right - which pivot to follow is the key. Each pivot is the result of a fib of a previous move. Some of them are of lesser importance, some of them are very important. The best way to distingusih among them is to start playing with the Fibonacci Tool, and to see WHICH fib of WHICH moves hit a pivot. In a while you will know which price moves are important, and also which are the most important fibs of them. Also, of course, any previous Support/Resistance level is very important. Your task is to figure out which fib of which move produced that Support/Resistance level. In a while you will know what to expect.

@ Rookie

When you use price action, the spread is of no importance. If you scalp fo 3-5-8 pips, of course, it is very important. But if you go for 50-100 or 100+ pips, the amount of the spread is insignificant, compared to the size of the target. Then, also, the pairs with the higher volatility, the ones that you prefer to trade in price action, are also the pairs with the higher spread. I personally do not care about the spread of the pair (of course, I do not want to start a trade in the 17:00 EST, immediately after NY close, because of GBP spreads reaching towards 20 pips, but that peak of the size of the spreads is gone in about 1 - 1.5 hours). All I care about is to trade one of the above mention pairs, which at the moment has the right Structure, and has a Daily ATR of at least 100 pips (for EG I might make an exception, but for the moment EG is not my major pair).

 
Rookie

Vess, you are certainly correct "he spread is of no importance" but except for the amount of equity we have to trade./eisk,
Those that trade the spread must inevitability bow to risk management and the prudence of that trade.

 
vesskrastev

A Small Lesson From The Last Night

The Daily ATR for GN from last night (and from today) is 189. It is marked on attachment 1 - starting from NY opening it ends on 1.9093. Combined with the fibs, and the 1.900 number, that convinced me that price would stop when it hits the Resistance zone. Actually price went through the Resistance Zone and stopped at 1.9079 (attachment 1).

That surprised me, and shouldn't have. The ATR is Average, on Big Moves it gets exceeded. Attachment 2 shows the last week - there were 3 big moves down, all of them starting right around London Open, continuing 3 to 4 hours, AND exceeding the Daily ATR and piercing the Resistance Zones. True, last night price needed a break to regroup and to attack again the Resistance Zone, but it did it. So, for the Big Moves that I try to identify in advance and to trade, I SHOULD expect price to EXCEED the Daily ATR, AND to pierce the Resistance Zones. After that, of cource, price would do a big Pull Back, AND after the Pullbacks would gladly oblige the Resistance Zones (attachment 2).

The Resistance Zones are great, they help for planning, but they apply only to the regular moves. Resistance Zones and Daily ATRs do not restrict the Big Moves, which happen couple of times in a good week - it is a good thing to remember.

Screenshot (640).png Screenshot (641).png
 
vesskrastev

USDX Climbing Into the Stratosphere, BUT...

USDX had done a steep climb, qiuickly surpassing the previous big top from July 31st (attachment 1). The oscillators and the Heiken-Ashi charts all point for a continuous move up (as Scott loves to say, they show us the picture of today). When we look at the MACD, we see a clear divergence (attachment 2). MACD shows us what comes tommorow. So we may eventually have one more move up of USDX (WOW, it is almost at 100.00), but the next move will be down - MACD always wins, and it points down.

Screenshot (646).png Screenshot (644).png
 
Rookie

It's not done yet, your big boys like even numbers, I suspect it will touch 100 maybe even 102 before the fall starts and a 3-4% deviation from the mean on the day/weekly charts. It's only the 3M CCI that has a slight turn down at this time. But change does start at the bottom and work its way up, just not sure the cycle is complete yet.

I have to stop sleeping so much at night... I'm missing the best trades! It didn't use to bee a problem but I suppose I'm getting older.

DXY.PNG
 
ninos23.03

Good luck my friend

 
vesskrastev

@ Rookie and @ ninos23.03

Thank you! It is my fault - I guess I have to log out and to log in again - for 3 days I kept seeing that there were no new entries in the tread, while yours were there.

Ed, what USDX does is an interesting subject. I used the USDX chart in my "stairing at the candles" for the last couple of days and the results will be posted in the next couple of postings - it will be too long to have them here. In a nutshell, I think for a short while USDX will move horizontally, after that we will see.

 
vesskrastev

The Relationship Between T3, MACD, and Bolinger Bands

I spent a big portion of my last week researching the the relationship between T3 and the Bolinger Bands. T3 is by far the best Moving Average. It is a weighted sum of many MAs - Single EMA, Double EMA, Triple EMA, and so on. If you Google T3, there would be many results to look at. The first link below tells you sometning about T3, the second describes how it is produced. In case you are curios, you may start reading, but that is not necessary. It is a matter of fact - T3 beats any other MA.

http://www.binarytribune.com/forex-trading-indicators/t3-moving-average-...

https://www.technicalindicators.net/indicators-technical-analysis/150-t3...

On top of T3 being superior to the other MAs, Jerry figured out what exactly settings to apply to it in order to maximize its potential. The charts are locked, one cannot get out of them the settings, all I know is that it was not a process of trial and error, but a major mathematical idea was applied to it - and the results are marvalous. Price has a really hard time breaking Jerry's T3 - it gets close to it and bounces, then it hits it and bounces again, then it slightly penetrates it, but bounces again. Then, at some time, price will decisively pierce T3, and from now on will stay on the other side of it. Now price will have a hard time crossing T3 in the opposite direction. T3 is a superior way to visually approximate what is price doing right now - is it trending, is it in a retracement, or in a PullBack, or is it outright in a reversal.

In Jerry's charts (ProAct's charts - Jerry is the one who did everything in them) T3 acts in tandem with MACD. T3 will cross price exactly at the time the "0" line of MACD will cross the histogram. Sometimes the histogram will bearly cross on the other side and immediatly will return on the previous side, sometimes it will be a major move. MACD (in combination with the ATR - for practical purposes) is the winner of all indicators - the way the histogram moves tells you the future, MACD always wins! With T3 now we have the price analog for the "0" line - it is T3.

I figured out the relationship between T3 and the 0 line couple of months ago. T3 is "holding" price on one of its sides, helping us to make a trading decision - and the 0 line of MACD seconds that. Great, a double confirmation is definitely better than a single one. It does not stop here, though. T3 interacts also with the walls of the Bolinger Bands - and produces basically identical results, while also helping us to distinguish between the different stages of the unfolding price move. Keeping a single post really long is not a very good idea, also it helps to keep one post devoted to one idea (and not more), so the relationship between T3 and Bolinger Bands is in the next post.

 
vesskrastev

T3 and Bolinger Bands

It is hard for me to say many things with just a few words, and since I already commented on that in an email to Scott and Jerry, I will just paste parts of that email.

"I already mentioned earlier that T3 does for price exactly the same thing that the 0 line does for the histogram of MACD - and, of course, that was not a secret for Jerry. With Price and MACD on the same Time Frame, and the histogram staying on one side of the 0 line only, the dips of the histogram mark Continuation Patterns - providing that the 0 line was not pirced decisively. If the 0 line was pierced decisively, a reversal had started. The interactions of Price and T3 above in the chart, show exactly the same thing.

T3 interacts very meaningfully with Price, BUT not ONLY with Price. It does the same with the Bolinger Bands - in the 6 ACES charts. T3 likes to stay inside the BBs - attachment 1 describes that. There is absolutely no secret in Attachment 1. The interesting things happen when T3 gets out of the BBs - takes an Excursion Out. These Excursions do not last a long time. When T3 gets out of the BBs (starts an Excursion), that signifies the beginning of a Continuation Pattern - providing that Price did not pirce T3. The "deeper" the Excursion Out - the more pronounced the pattern is. Attachment 2 shows all of that, as good as I could make it. When T3 breaks out of the BBs, the first part of the pattern starts - Price moves towards T3 in a counter trend direction. When T3 gets back inside the BBs, actually slightly before that, a strong trending move starts, until Price makes a strong Break Out of the BBs - this time on the opposite side of the T3 excursion out.

The way T3 interacts with the BBs walls, is very similar to the way T3 interacts with the 0 line. T3 breaching out of the BBs generally means to me that a Continuation Pattern (flag pole, or a Bullish Pole in the case of a Bullish move, or a Bear Pole in the case of a Bear move) had started. In the case of a full blown Reversal, Price has to first breach T3, before getting Out of the BBs, so the signal for reversal is received before one could start expecting continuation patterns in the new direction.

Having the combination of T3/0 line interactions, and T3/BBs interactions, is a double confirmation, strenghtening the Structure considerations. T3 is super wonderful, I love it."

P.S. Looking at attachment 1, it is obvious that Price - in our case Price is USDX - just positioned itself squarely in the middle of a narrow HORIZONTAL Bollinger Bands channel. To me it means that for a little while USDX will move horizontally, and slightly before the end of that horizontal move the charts will probaly give as clues about the direction of the next USDX move.

Price, T3, MACD, and BBs.jpg T3 Excursions Out of the BBs.jpg
 
Pavneet Ghai

nice article, I wish it was with charts as example.

 
patbalvanz

Pavneet, notice the 2 squares above. Click them for charts.

 
Hulagirl

This is interesting information. I will have to do some research as I am someone that likes to understand the underlying reasons for the movement in the market.

 
vesskrastev

ProAct Open House is Now Open

Below is the text of my email from ProAct.

ProAct Traders
To:
vesskrastev@yahoo.com

Sep 9 at 8:56 AM

Back by popular demand!

Our Open house is starting this Monday September 9th, 2019. We only open our Live rooms and website access a few times a year and this is one of them! Last year our traders captured over 18,000 pips. If you sit in the open house room you will see our traders capturing hundreds of pips and you might just catch a few of them also.

In addition, Many of our training videos are available and we also make our session recap after each NY session available to you during this open house. Last year our traders made over 10,000 pips on that daily video alone.

We’d love to have you join us and there is NO COST!

No need to register - just show up using the links below:

To open your Session, please copy the password and then click the appropriate link and paste into the login box.
If the login below does not work go to www.zoom.us , click on top right corner (Join a Meeting), input the 9 digit meeting ID number below for the specific meeting and then enter the Password for that meeting when prompted and you should go right in.

Note: Please use your REAL NAME when entering - we are a family and "joe blow" or "FXDude" doesn't work for us.

New York's Password:
freetrial

New York Session Link

Meeting ID: 158-529-358
NY Session - Live FX Target Training
9:15 AM - 10:30 AM Eastern

London's Password:
freetrial

London Session Link -

Meeting ID: 816-490-227
London Session - Live FX Target Training
8:30am to 10:30am GMT

Note: Please use your REAL NAME when entering - we are a family and "joe blow" or "FXDude" doesn't work for us.​

The ProAct Traders Team

"Trading Forex involves substantial risk, is not for every trader and only risk capital should be used. Past performance is no guarantee of future results".

The New York session Link is below:
https://proacttraders.zoom.us/j/158529358?pwd=U3A2WlhQczhpQlA0MGhMcWZiS2...

London session Link:
https://proacttraders.zoom.us/j/816490227?pwd=TTYvUEw2WlFaenN1bGIxSGVJM2...

Andrew, who presents the London session, lives in Florida, and they have severe problems now, related to the last hurricane, so London may not be open all of the time.

The open house is a great opportunity to experience how target trading works. It is absolutely free and carries no obligations. Anyone curious about it is welcome to attend.

 
Rookie

Vess, Thanks much, what took you so long to post this msg...LOL

 
vesskrastev

Sleep deprivation Ed! I am late on everything, I got some late payments to my bills, not because of lack of funds, but because of lack of time to pay them (or lack of menthal resources to remember that - hopefully that forgetfulness would not progress into dementia, lol).

 
vesskrastev

The Importance of Keeping Watch on the Dollar Index

In my post from September 7th I wrotethat probably for a few days USDX will move sideways - in a tight box - and then the charts will give us clues about the next move. I needed my 3 hrs of sleep in a bed (not in the car chair), and last night could not post, so here it is.

The last couple of days USDX was bouncing off of a SLTL (Single Line Trend Line) moving up (attachment 1). Then T3 moved out of the Bolinger Bands - that generally means that a short term counter trend will follow (the skort black arrow down), followed by a strong trending move. Now that trending move up was amplified by the EUR news event this morning, and created a big, big vertical move. That same vertical move was followed by equally strong move down - we already had a very strong diversion. USDX did a huge whipsaw, and all of the majors immediately responded to that. Attachment 2 shows you the whipsaw.

Trading the majors, and especially the EU without paying attention to the USDX, is not a very smart thing. USDX can do things like that at a moment's notice. On attachment 1 you can see how USDX (price) already broke the T3, and is just about tho break the 0 line of MACD. That means that for the moment USD is going down, but that would not be finalized before the 0 line is broken.

Screenshot (688).png Screenshot (689).png
 
vesskrastev

Scott's View on What to Expect Next Week

As you all probably know, Monday starts the second week of the Open House - I wrote about that and posted links on September 11th. Below is the text of an email that Scott sent to all attendies - he calls it "What I see in the Forex next week." The link to itis attached too. By the way, Scott does that every weekend, and it is accessible to every guest. Also attached are today's ATRs.

"Scott.Barkley@proacttraders.com

Sep 13 at 6:25 PM

AAAA

9/13/2019 7:24:42 PM EST Blog

This is what I see in the Forex the week of September 15th, 2019: USDX, EU,UJ,GU,AU http://proacttraders.com/blog – see website for more images #forex #$$ #Proacttraders #FX"

http://proacttraders.com/blog

ATRs 9-14-19.png
 
vesskrastev

Condensed File with the Actual Weekly ATRs and the Total Weekly Moves of 20 pairs for 2019 (and the last few weeks of 2018)

I finally finished the work on this file. To me it is very important, and I will spend some time sifting through it. So far, just from a partial look through it (during the time I was assembling it) I could say that during the Christmass week all the pairs went to very, very low Total Weekly Moves, and also that quite often the Total Weekly Move hits aFibonacci's number (or very close to it).

Once again, this info is very important to me - hopefully it will be interesting for you too.

AttachmentSize
Weekly Actual ATRs and Total Moves.xlsx 25.59 KB
 
FXGold54

Hey Vesslin;

Wow, that is a lot of great info, and appreciate the work you put into it. I too will be spending some time sifting through.

Allen

 
vesskrastev

New, Improved File for Actual Weekly ATRs and Total Weekly moves

For quite a long time I was amassing data on the Weekly ATRs, then I decided that I should add also the Total Price Move for the week. It took some time to get the additional data, but finally it was ready. It was collected from the weekly candles of the pairs - Actual Weekly ATR = High - Low; the total move = Open - Close. This way the Actual ATR is always positive (of course), but the total move has a sign. For weeks when price moved down, the total move is positive, since the ending value is lower (smaller) than the starting one. For weeks when price moved up, the total move is negative, since the Open is lower (smaller) than the Close.

My source file was checked many times, but to get from it to the final file - the first version of "Actual Weekly ATRs and Total Weekly Moves" - I spent close to 3 days in cutting and pasting, cutting and pasting... - you get the picture. I thought that there were no major mistakes in assembling that final file, but was not sure. My son came home, and for 20 minutes reassembled the file and organized in a lot nicer way. Now I am convinced that the data is proper, and, of course, is a lot nicer formatted. The new file is below. By the way, week 53 of 2018 is actually week 1 of 2019, but I would not mess up the formulas (and everything) just to fix that small detail.

AttachmentSize
Weekly Actual ATRs and Total Moves.xlsx 68.96 KB
 
Rookie

Vess this is an awesome amount of work, staggering to me.
Now that you have the total move for a specific period of time I.E. price and time cycle!
Maybe think on adding the catalyst for the momentum of change to a cycle.
Just a thought...

 
vesskrastev

Allen and Ed, thank you very much for your comments.

By the way Ed, I can physically see the momentum appearing - my charts show that. There are total of 24 indicators working behind the scene (only Jerry knows exactly how it works) and a few of them are involved in displaying momentum. When momentum appears, the candles become bright red or green - without momentum a thin black line goes around the candle, and it looks kind of a dull red or green. There is a second, higher level of momentum - that is when a red arrow (for shorts) or a green arrow (for longs) appears. There is even a third level for momentum - a white dot appears, which means that a painted (bright) candle and an arrow appeared on a chart, the Time Frame of which is 6 times bigger that the Time Frame of your current chart. Getting a painted candle and an arrow, and especially a white dot, is a great info if that happens during a session - the first 3/3.5 hours of London Open, or the overlap between London and New York. Out of these time windows momentum appearing does not mean much, since there is a lot less volume involved, and it is relatively easy to change it - meaning that "momentum" appearing out of session could be the result of some mid level player getting involved, and not really the Big Boys. Of course, looking with a doubt on bright candles appearing out of session, matters for price action traders, probably scalpers could use the appearance of a bright colored candles and an arrow at any time.

I personally want to use this info in order to try to identify swing trades in advance - this is the main direction that I am trying to pursue. Also it may help me to decide in what direction price may move on Fridays - target traders as a rule do not trade during the New York session on Fridays, since during that time the Big Boys finish their weeks, and very unexpected moves could be produced - for example last Friday I expected GBPCHF to go down, or may by slightly up, and actually it shot up like a rocket. The idea is to try to figure out the way Trending Weeks (weeks when Price did a sizeable vertical move - it should be close to the Weeklt ATR, or higher thatn it - about that another time) and Trading Weeks (when the Weekly Total Price move was close to 0) follow each other. If the current week seems to be a Trending week, then during the NY session on Friday price should move towards the Weekly ATR price value; if the current week seems to be a Trading week, then during NY session on Friday price should be moving towards the Weekly Opening price.

 
Rookie

very good Vess, I have been so busy and no time for the open house, all consolidations no matter the time frame end in a breakout, at that moment is when the momentum is the greatest. The trick for traders is not to get caught in a flash breakout. Recognizing the zig-zag of a flash breakout becomes important. Unless of course, the trader has a great deal of equity to ride that out....::))

Conversely, all trends come to rest in consolidation and the decision is then made which way to go, up, down or sideways. The slope will p[rovide the strength of the momentum.

Anyway, just more fodder for thought.

Have a great week!

 
vesskrastev

Ed, completely agree with you. By the way, if you missed the NY session, you can watch its recording, and also the recording of the Live Room Recap - it does take some time for it to get posted (web providers issues, not ProAct), but it gets posted in a few hours. Also you can watch the recordings of the previous days - but that is available to you only until you are a guest, or a demo trader. After the end of the Open House usually you are offered the opportunity to stay for free for a little bit more (I did all of that), but in a while if you want to continue using the charts, and the materials, and the Live Rooms, you will have to start paying for that. We do pay $65/month to use the Alveo charts, ProAct is more expensive, but in my opinion totally worthed. I am not trying to convince you in anything, just trying to give you all the important information, and also to encourage you to take full advantage of the free ride.

Screenshot (698).png
 
Rookie

Thanks, Vess, appreciate the thoroughness.
I have had to move my son, his family and the mother-in-law with family, recuperating this week or at least I'd like to think so.

 
vesskrastev

The Next Step In Compiling My Statistics

Step 1 is ongoing - recording roughly twice a week the Daily ATR and the Weekly ATR values - the Daily ATR comes from the ProAct app, and the Weekly ATR comes from two sources - originally just from the software, provided in the charts, and later on to this were added the values from the ProAct's (Jerry's) app. Also the Actual Weekly ATR is recorded, as well as the Total Price Move for the Week - both come from measuring the Weekly candle, but the Actual Weekly ATR includes the wicks, and is always positive, while the Total Price Move for the Week measures the body only, and has a sign - positive for a move down, and negative for a move up. The first step is recorded in an Excell file named "Weekly and Daily ATR".

Step 2 was to separate the Actual Weekly values for the pairs - the Actual Weekly ATR, and the Weekly Total Move. It is ongoing too - the file is named "Weekly Actual ATRs and Total Moves".

Step 3 is the next step - to go on a Daily level. It breaks down to single currency pairs. Of course, I cannot do that for all the 20 pairs. It will be done just for the pairs that I am interested in - the GBP pairs, and also EURAUD. So far I plan to do it for 7 pairs, but it may not go all the way - it takes a lot of time to do that. The name of that file is "Daily Currency Statistics."

My idea is to have all the info for my pairs in Step 3 - the "Daily Currency Statistics". The first step is to record the Daily moves of the pair - Actual Daily ATR and the Total Daily Move. After that the Weekly and the Daily ATRs are added - for the purpose of comparisson, and in a while to try to predict what the pair would do during the week. I have to be able with a single glimpse to assess what the pair is doing - that means that the Weekly data must be added too - the Actual Weekly ATR and the Total Weekly Move (coming from step 2). The last stage in compiling the "Daily Currency Statistics" is to record the Price moves within the day - for example for the GBP pairs is very important to know what Price did since London Open.

So far I just finished compiling "Daily Currency Statistics" for GN - and that is without the price moves within the day (since London Open). . All the 3 files are attached below.

AttachmentSize
Weekly and Daily ATR.xlsx 100.81 KB
Weekly Actual ATRs and Total Moves.xlsx 69.57 KB
Daily Currency Statistics.xlsx 21.99 KB
 
vesskrastev

Adding Some Visuals to the spreadsheet

Within the spreadsheet I added weekly charts of the Actual Daily ATR, of the Total Daily Price Move (Open - Close), and of the number and the timing of the days, when the Daily ATR was hit. The last set of weekly charts ("Daily ATR Hit") is a clustered column chart. I also included 2 values - 1 if price hit the Daily ATR, and 0.8 if price hit the 80% of the ATR (80% is very close to the 0.786 fib - 78.60%). The Daily ATR Hit charts are quite a few - originally I was not recording the Daily ATR, since my attention was focused on the Weekly ATR. I will ask Jerry if he has a record of the Daily ATrs - if he has, then I could fill the empty spaces. Also in the column of the Daily ATR I embedded the Average for the Week of the Actual Daily ATR.

Again I had barely any time so far to search for patterns, but a few things are obvious. If price finished the week on low Total Daily Move, it almost always strats the next week on a low Total Daily Move. Also if price ends the week on a high Total Daily Move, it will start the next week on high Total Daily Move. Starting the week on low Total Move means that by WED and THUR te Total Move will searge, quite often to diminish again on FRI - BUT sometimes the High Total Move streak may continue, and even get more pronounced on FRI. Of course, starting the week on High usually means going lower midweek. There is also another pattern: High - Low - High, and vice versa: Low - High - Low. My impression is that there is a some kind of an average, and it is purcued for the week - that causes the sequence of High - Low, etc.

Of course, the summer period is obvious - and I don't have enough data on the winter time before that.

Another interesting thing - regarding the number of days the Daily ATR was hit. When looking for price reaching 100% of the Daily ATR, it comes out that this occurred roughly 50% of the days - 2 to 3 days in a week. When including into that the 80% hit, that increases the number of times it happened during the week to somewhere between 3 and 4 times a week - or roughly may be slightly more that in 60% of the cases. Of course, in which days it happened, varies - and that is what the clustered column chart shows.

I still have to work on the statistics of the hourly moves of price - wht it does during the day. Particularly I am interested what price (GN) did from London Open - how many times it hit 144 pips, how many times it hit 89 pips, how many times New Yourk Open caused major changes in the pattern the price was drawing, etc. So far it is all about GN, but some of the other GBP pairs should follow. I am only interested in the high volatility pairs - to this eventually I will add EG, and definitely at the end EA should be added - I should have the ability to move away from the GBP pairs in ceratain occasions (also EA seams to be run by very meticulous bankers - they try calculate and fulfill all of the moves very carefully).

AttachmentSize
Daily Currency Statistics.xlsx 463.74 KB
 
Rookie

Vess, that is a great addition to your following, I think most of the "why" you have pointed out can be attributed to the news.

So let me ask with this volume or work how many trades do you take daily - weekly? and maybe a win/loss ratio?

 
mdpoettcker

Thanks for the insightful information now I have more ammo to stay in the game with the big boys. Good trades ahead. Thanks again vessKrastev.

 
vesskrastev

@ Rookie

Ed, actually the last week I only did slightly more than the required 5 trades to stay in the game - it was the Fast Track time in ProAct, and I spent 3 mornings on that. May be this coming week will be spent mostly on data gathering again (shame - it is a great time to trade GBP pairs), or may be I will spent couple of nights on trading - time management is a very hard thing for me, I still have to do my 85-90 hours in the car. I think I got a very important insight about how to start swing trades (it requires verification). So, for the last couple of weeks I decided to finally do my homework on learning the personality of GN - it is a single ocasion of time investment. Doing all of that for the other pairs will happen a lot faster, since the pattern of what to do and how to do it is already established.

Ed, thanks for mentioning the news - it may as well be the answer, I did not think about that.

@ mdpoettcker

You are welcome. There is more data coming - to me it is very important to know the statistics, since it gives me the confidence to do what is necessary - currently I am trying to master the trading of the GBP pairs "bursts," starting usually at London Open once or twice a week (during the busy "seasons"), and also to get a usable Swing Trades startegy.

 
vesskrastev

GN, the Crazy, Volatile and Unpredictabe pair - Actually Works Like a Clock

On September 20th GN started a move down and so far did about 500 pips. The attachments below show that this move was perfectly calculated..

Attachment 1 shows in detail (on a 10 min chart) how the first move down unfolded. The yellow horizontal lines (S1, S2, and S3) are from Scott's HSI indicator - it measures the waves in the development of the price move. The blue lines are from my Banker's Promise (BP) trade, and the white dotted lines (on the left side) are the fibs of the first small move down.

The First Big move down (marked with the long black line on the left) ended on the -1.270 extension of the small move 1. The Big Move consisted of 5 smaller moves down (the last one I forgot to mark with #5). It is obvious how each one of these 5 small moves ended on a special place. Normally Move 1 could be with any length, and the remaining moves wiould allign with different fibs of Move 1. In our case though even Move 1 was not random (it is never random - it is calculated so that all of the remainimng moves will end on a preplanned values) - it ended exactly on S1 (S1 is preset, it does not depend on the price move). Move 2 ended on the -0.270 extension of Move 1; Move 3 ended on the confluence of S2, the -0.618 extension of Move 1, and the 1.270 fib of the BP. Move 4 ended on the 1.618 fib of the BP, and Move 5 ended on the -1.270 extension of the Move 1.

Attachment 2 shows how these 5 small moves fall into a 5 waves pattern. Everything in Forex is fractal, and we can see the Elliot's 5 waves on ever smaller scales. All the pairs love the 0.618 and the 1.618 fibs - they reflect the Golden Mean. 0.618 is the ratio of dividing a Fibonacci's number to the next bigger Fibonacii's number, and 1.618 is the opposite ratio - dividing the bigger number to the next smaller number. The GBP pairs specifically love these 2 fibs. Attachments 3, 4 and 5 show how the 5 smaller moves down, discussed above, could be represented by 3 combined moves, each one of which retraced to 0.618, and later on extended to 0.618 (-0.618).

Isn't that amazing? The first small move was exactly equal to S1, the combined move was exactly the -1.270 extension of the first small move (of S1), and consisted of 3 moves, each one of then retracing to 0.618, and after that extending to -0.618! By the way, 1.270 is roughly equal to 2 X 0.618. 618 fib, 618 fib, and again, and again. The crazy GN, behaving like a purring cat? The Big Boys do with GN exactly what they want. The important thing is to try to learn their graphical and mathematical language (the fibs are pure math).

Did everything finished with the first big move? No, of course. On attachment 6 you can see how the first big move was retraced exactly to the 786 fib, and how on the way down Price acknowledged ALL of the yellow, blue, and white lines, especially the confluences of them, and of course - all of those 0.618, and again 0.618, and 1.270 which is actually 2 X 0.618.

Attachment 7 shows us the progression to the current price level. There were 3 boxes (flags) where the Big Boys accumulated orders for the next move down, and, of course, just by a pure coincidence, these boxes were framed each and every time by 2 fibs. The previous price moves carry information about the future moves. You can see, I applied fib retracements/extensions (in this case I was interested in the extensions only) to 2 of the previous moves - the 2 black diagonal lines above.

Currently Price draws a perfect descending wedge - the ochra lines to the right, ammasing strength for a break down through the 1.9500 line. When price does that, I would expect it to bounce off 3 times (may be just 2?) off of the the -1.270 fib, off of the confluence of the blue 4.236 fib and the 0.618 white fib, and also off of the S6 level. The first time price may go through these levels, but without a doubt very soon will reverse and go above them. They are very significant barriers, especially the bottom 2, and will definitely be acknowledged by price.

Will GN continue down, past the S6 level? S6 is at 1.9394. If price goes decisively below S6, it means that the Big Boys have in mind getting to S7, which is slightly above 1.9000. The next BP fib, after 4.236, is 6.854 - it is at 1.9111. Could the Big Boys master a run to 1.9100-1.9000? Yes, they could, GN has no problem reaching S7 (or R7 in the case of a move up). Will they do it? At the moment we do not know. Attachment 8 shows on a 60 min chart a clear diversion - diversion means that the End is near, not that it is here, it means that price is in a search of a bottom, and as soon as it finds it the move will be over. Considering the Diversion, and the many, many barriers below (the bright blue horizontal lines), it might be that the end of the GN move down will happen when it hits S6. Next week the charts will show us what will happen.

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broslansky

Vess,

Comparing your post with tryguylm1's post:

https://apiaryfund.com/forum/part-time-funded-trader

How far would you say the GBP NZD pair is headed? From the little I understand of these range-bound ("fixed") pairs, I'm guessing the following. See attached.

Looking forward to your commentary.

Thanks!

GBP NZD Prediction.JPG
 
vesskrastev

Hi broslansky!

As Scott loves to say, the Big Boys did not email me to tell me what they intend to do. We can only base our conclusions on what the charts tell us. What the immediate future holds, IMHO, I posted yesterday. The close targets on the way down are 4.236 fib of BP - at 1.9441, and S6 - at 1.9394. Currently price is about 100 pips above 4.236, and about 140 pips above S6, with a divergence on 60 min - divergence in our case means that there probably will be one more move down in search of the bottom (I used probably just because we are never 100% sure, otherwise the Big Boys would never miss a huge target, S6, coming so close to it - and 100-140 pips is nothing for GN - if in doubt just look at the previous week).

After hitting S6 there will be a sizeable bounce back, that always happens after hitting a major target. What will happen after that? Lets look in the close past for clues. Attachment 1 shows the GN move down from 10/10/2018 to 12/3/2018 - for a total of 2,199 pips, down to about S8.66 and slightly below the 6.854 BP fib. The scale of S1, S2,.... is fixed, while the fibs of BP depend on the first move after the reversal, on which they are based - when you chose the proper first move, it will give you a personalized long term map of the unfolding move, while the Sn/Rn give you the absolute scale.

Attachment 2 shows the GN move down from 5/7/2019 to 7/29/2019 for a total of 1,743 pips, down to S8 and 4.236 fib of BP. As we can see, GN can in a matter of couple of months plunge down for about 2,000 pips, that is not a problem for GN. Why 2,000 seems to be the limit for a"normal" move? I have an idea about tha, just an idea - the "normal" moves, initiated by the Big Boys, should not change the value of the currency by more than 10%. For EU roughly 1,000 pips would change the value of the dollar by about 10 cents, but GN is a cheeper pair (1 pip of GN is worth about 50% less than 1 pip of EU - remember, this is just a very, very rough estimate - therefore probably around 2,000 pips should be the limit of the "normal" business moves for GN, unless the Big Boys risk the intervention of the Central Bankers, something which they try to avoid at any price).

Based on the above said, GN still has a lot of room to move down in the current move. It should bounce up strongly after reaching S6 - 1.9394. After that probably it will go down again. Attachment 3 shows that on the 240 min chart (H4) there is a convergence for a move down. You can also see that the S6 and S7 levels coincide with previous Support/Resistance levels. S7 matches exactly the bottom from 9/2/2019, and S6, although close to the tops from the end of August, 2019, actually comes from 6/13/2019. GN definitely could do the distance between S6 and S7, and S7 at 1.9017 is still only about halfway to the bottom of about 1.8300 from the last 2 big moves down. What needs to be mentioned - price usually makes fast moves in the areas where it previously moved fast (like what it did from 9/12 up, and then down to the current price, and in the near future down to S6), and moves slow in the areas where it used to move slow - like it did in the area between S6 and S7 on the last way up. Therefore, once price moves decisively below S7, I would expect it to go up and down many times - in other words it will probably create another huge box, very similar to the box it created on the way up between 8/22 and 9/12

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waiel.ali

Congrats and best of luck!

 
vesskrastev

Brexit and the GBP pairs

I am sick and tired of expecting at any moment some crazy reaction of the market because Boris Johnson said or did something, or because his European counterparts did the same. It is already October 1st, hopefully on October 31st, a month from now, Brexit will finally be over. There will be some aftershocks after that, without any doubt, but it will be a part of the process of everything winding down.

I think (and I may be completely wrong) that on a long run Brexit will be positive for the GBP. On the other hand, the immediate events around Brexit (when it finally hits) will bring down the GBP pairs quite a lot. Ther is an opinion among the successful GBP traders that the GBP Big Boys in the time immedeately preceding Brexit would drive their currencies higher, so that the resulting Brexit caused fall would not be that much devastating. Could it be that this push higher already started (or is about to start)? We will see shortly.

 
Rookie

Vess ultimately I agree but not yet, the monthly chart attached shows longer-term bearish slow slope.

GBPUSD Long Term.PNG
 
vesskrastev

I agree Ed, it is too early yet, but IMHO it will for sure happen later in the month.

 
Jon Paarlberg

Thanks for the view into what the institutional investors are doing. That is a huge interest area of mine.

 
vesskrastev

How Do the Trading Days Work

I have mentioned earlier in my tread - in Forex there are 2 types of days (and weeks also) - Trending Days and Trading Days. We have a Trending day (or a week) when from the beginning of the day to the end of the day Price travels a sizable vertical distance, usualy equal, or close to the Daily/Weekly ATR. A Trading Day (Week) we have when at the end of the day (week) Price stands exactly (or quite close) to the value it had at the beginning of the day (week), in other words when the total vertical distance Price travelled throughout the day (week) is very close to 0.

I was spending some time on the chart of EN when it hit me exactly how the Trading days (weeks) work. There is nothing secret there, I just never thought about that. On the other hand, after recognizing that pattern, it gets a lot easier to trade.

The big boys cannot stay all day long on one place, they need to move price. If after 24 hours Price should be at approximately the same place, then at least one change of direction during the day is necessary, and the perfect case is with 2 changes in direction. Trading days happen very often when the BBs draw a symmetrical triangle (wedge). All of the price patterns have a resolve, meaning after their completion price tends to move in a certain direction. The symmentrical wedge is the only pattern without resolve - after it price may break out in either direction. There is a slightly higher chance that it may continue in the same direction as the direction it followed on the way to the sym. wedge, but it doesn't count for much.

When for whatever reason the BBs temporarily cannot make up their minds about which direction they should push the price, they start drawing a sym. wedge. As the wedge keeps getting narrower, the vertical movements of price keep getting smaller - they spend less money than normal, they are realizing an "economy" of funds. The result of that is that the Daily ATR decreases. When the tip of the wedge gets really small, they expect somebody to make up their mind and to finally push in one dirrection, and the rest immediately join the move - the sym. wedge "explodes" - they all have extra money to spend, due to the "economy" from the previous stage.

On the final stages of a sym. wedge there are a lot of tarding days. Attachment 1 shows us what EN has been doing during the last couple of weeks (on my charts a black vertical line marks the beginning of a new trading day - NY Close - and the blue vertiva\cal lines mark the beginning of a new week). The screenshot is from yesterday (today price continued doing exactly the same thing). The thick white lines show you what price did throughout the days - Mon, Tue, Wed, and Thur - and the thin horizontal dotted white lines show you the range of the total price move for the day. The Actual ATRs were: Mon - 109, Tue - 91, Wed - 99, and Thur - 109, while the total price moves (Open - Close) were: Mon - 22 pips, Tue - 38, Wed - 41 , and Thur - 26. As you can see, they were not Zero, but compared to the Daily ATR of 116, they were quite low, which is the definition of a Trading day.

Now comes the interesting part. You can see that on Mon and Thur Price changed direction twice, while on Tue and Wed it changed direction once. The yellow horizontal lines to the right of Thur are marking the Daily ATR for moves in either direction. What did price do on Thur? After the beginning of the day it moved Up for 1/2 of the ATR, then revesed and moved Down for the whole length of the ATR, then reversed and moved Up (again) for 1/2 of the ATR. This way the BBs did twice the ATR - in direction Up, and in direction Down - while remaining at about the same place after 24 hours of moving price. Practically the same thing happened on Mon.

I used to wonder what to expect when Price suddenly changed direction seamingly halfway through the move that I was expecting it to do. Now I realized - if Price moves one way approximately 1/2 of the Daily ATR, then it changes direction, goes the opposite way again 1/2 of the ATR, AND passes that starting point and continues - then quite probably we have a Trading day - I could expect Price to continue the move until it reaches approximately the Daily ATR, and then to reverse again for 1/2 of ATR (or so). In other words the pattern is: 1/2 of ATR Up, 1 ATR Down, and 1/2 of ATR Up again. Of course, it works exactly the same when the starting move is Down. Also, instead of the starting and ending !/2s of ATR, we might have (for example): 0.4 ATR Up - 1 ATR Down - 0.6 ATR Up. Or - 0.3 ATR Up - 1 ATR Down - 0.7 ATR Up.

Recognizing that Trading Day pattern can definitely help when Price starts making unexpected U turns on you, especially when a symmetrical wedge is being drawn.

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Rookie

Interesting, very interesting food for deeper investigation and thought.
Thanks, Vess.

 
sherpalm03

Good luck indeed! Fascinating. I know about the whales and the plankton if I may. I've heard 95/5% as well. Either measurement, the big moves are when the whales take action. I see price movement in channels in larger size waves, then it tightens up into consolidation. Once it does that, which I have learned is caused by the Big Boys and their hidden orders, then action soon ensues. I started using Fibs as well, taking a course through a trade school where I learned about trading and stock options several years back. I am amazed at how accurate they are, especially after trying so many different indicators that just weren't getting me to where I needed to be. Now I just use Fib Retracements, Extensions, Price and Time confluences, Fib Angles and Stochs. I am gaining over 100 pips easily in a day, but I am still working on not doing the "Wait and See" maneuver.

 
vesskrastev

@ jonpaalberg, @ Rookie, and @ sherpalm03

Thank you for commenting! The BBs will do what they always do - they heavily manipulate the market. They cannot completely control the market, but come quite close to that. In order for successfully communicating their intentions to the other institutional traders - not to us, the retail traders, they call us the "dumb money" - they have to use something objective. Here comes into use the "graphical language" - trends and boxes, heartlines of the trends and their eqivalent for the boxes, price patterns and MACD. The other "objective component" is the use of math - here come the mighty fibs, all the variety of them, and the ATRs. Actually all of that is math - the "graphical language" is the visible math, and the fibs and ATRs are the "invisible" math. By the way, when Price breaks out of a range, when it breaks through a Single Line Trend Line, it basically always goes to a certain fib - which fib of which move, that is the job of the trader to figure out (that is how far I am allowed to go).

All of the above applies to the vertical moves, to the way Price moves up and down - but not only to that. The nicest thing is that math could be used with almost the same precision to the horizontal moves, to the way Time plays into our trades. I started venturing into that, and there were some very interesting results, but unfortunately I have no tools available for use in that area, and at the moment I don't have the time for the endless manual counting of candles. Jerry promised to do something about that, but he is very busy. I hope that at some point he will make me a great present - a tool for applying fibs to the Time sequense.

 
vesskrastev

Trading Price "Pulses" Versus Swing Trading

As Allen mentions many times in his treads - "Ichimoku material and my E-book", and other treads also - and as the BBs rules dictate, a favorable Reward/Risk ratio can come only on bigger price moves (if you look for R/R ratio of 3:1 you need at least 55 pips move). The GBP pairs, and EA, EN, and sometimes EJ, can provide that. Once or twice a week GN, GA, and GJ would provide you with the opportunity to "ride" a 100+ pips run - could reach 200+ pips in a few hours, or even 300+ - when amplified by news events, as on Mon (close to 400 pips move in a day).

Trading these "pulses" is a very tempting and rewarding opportunity. Of course, you have to identify exactly when would they happen, and to be able to "stay in the saddle" during the ride. Also dealing with volatilities like that is dangerous - what if it goes the wrong way? The opportunity to "make a killing" on a move like that comes from running multiple trades during that move. There are techniques to help you to identify the possible starts of a "pulse" like that, thre are also techniques to help you "stay in the saddle." These are not common, or easily discoverable techniques, but they do exist. As anything worthed, they require time and effort to get familiar with their use. What is impossible to avoid, at least while trading with Alveo, is to avoid the need to actively manage these trades while they are unfolding. One can plan the entries in advance and enter them, but it is impossible in Alveo to have an automatic modification of the Stop Loss of the existing trades at the time when the new trades go into effect. There is a perfect program to do that - it can do absolutely everything you would like to do yourself if you were in front of the computer screen at that moment, and it would be a PERFECT EXECUTION - it is called Synergy, and I bought it - but it is designed to work with MT 4 (or MT 5), and Alveo is not compatible.

Basically all of these "pulses" happen during the London session, and I cannot actively mange trades during this time. I can take a look now and then, can do something now and then, but I cannot continuously monitor and manage the trades, and cannot have Synergy do that for me. I tried to trade the "pulses", with a varying success, but due to my inability to actively manage the trades, the results were varying also. If I am a full time trader, lets say when I become a full time trader, with all of 24 hours of the day in my disposal, trading these pulses will become the best thing to do, but for now it is not - not under the current restrictions on my time (successful limo drivers in the USA Midwest operate mainly during the London session).

What is left in this case is the Swing trades. They are unfolding for a few days, generally it takes a week (or more) for them to finish. It is enough to look at them a few times a day, but it is not necessary to stay with them all of the time. The pairs, which are good for "pulse" trading, generally are not very good for Swing trading, and vice versa. That is not an absolute rule, nothing in Forex works 100% of the time. Some of the GBP pairs may have quite good swing trades, if the 240 min chart is traded, but generally that requires a really high Stop Loss. For the last 2-3 weeks I tried to get a first impression on which pairs are good for swing trading. I am not done yet with that first look (it consumes a lot of time to do that), and after the first look is completed, a second, more in depth look will follow for the best candidates. Shortly I will post what came out of that.

 
Rookie

Good digging Vess, this indicator is available on TVC also, if you had, for example, an Oanda account, you can link them for order execution.
Just a thought.

 
jdiazfar

This is a lot of information. Outstanding, thank you for sharing.
I will keep following this subject.

 
vesskrastev

Ed, Synergy is not an indicator. It is a program, which can execute ANYTHING instead of you. You can program anything, and Synergy will look for when the circumstances you described would happen, and then would execute your commands. It is amazing, it is the best that exist in that area. If you preplanned everything about your trade (trades), you can enter it in Synergy, and it will do it for you. Once you entered the commands into Synergy, you can completely forget about the trade - Synergy will do everything for you, will do it better than you, because it never sleeps, gets tired, goes to the washroom, etc. The only problem is that Alveo is not MT4 compatible, and Synergy works with MT$.

 
Rookie

Thx Vess, what is the URL for this program?

 
Kevin Osei-Kofi

Mind = Blown

This strategy is much similar to my mentality only about 100 times more precise and detailed. I have been attempting to TARGET trade this whole time and I think he reveals a weakness of mine. I have not spent enough time studying Fibs and Elliot waves...

 
vesskrastev

@ jdiazfar and @ Kevin Osei-Kofi

Thanks. It is a lot of information, and it takes a lot of time for this information to switch in your brain from: "Interesting. May be..." to "Absolutely no doubt about that" to "I need to learn every small detail about it" and finally to actually getting there.

@ Rookie

Ed, below is the link to the website. Synergy is great, all the ProAct traders who score multiple hundreds of pips a night, all the way to a couple of thousand pips a night , use it. It is not cheap though. They used to sell a life time license for $500, ProAct had a discount of $100. About 3 months ago they discontinued the lifetime licenses (one time purchase fee) and switched to a monthly subscription (a lot more expensive variant). Couple of days before the cutout date I bought a lifetime license for $397, but haven't used it yet. I shoud start using my free demo MT4 account from Alpari in order to get familiar with the use of Synergy. As far as I have heard so far, the only problems with Synergy arise from Windows doing an automatic update and disrupting the work of Synergy. Luckily on my laptop I have to autorize the start of the update it will not sstart automatically in the middle of the night.

 
Rookie

thanks, Vess but no link here.

 
vesskrastev

Ed, I am getting old - sorry - here is the link.

https://www.pecuniasystems.com/fxsynergy

Also attached are my XCEL charts.

AttachmentSize
Weekly and Daily ATR.xlsx 105.53 KB
Weekly Actual ATRs and Total Moves.xlsx 72.12 KB
Daily Currency Statistics.xlsx 508.94 KB
 
Rookie

Thanks, Vess, and aren't we all!

 
vesskrastev

Swing Trades on EU

I started my explorations into swing trades with EU, since it is the most popular pair in Apiary, and also seemed to me that EU would work well for swing trading. Because of that the EU screenshot scontain less info than the following pairs - I was just trying to figure out what to record. The 240 min charts allow me to go back in time 22 months roughly (1 year and 10 months), and the 60 min charts allow me to go back 5.5 months, so understandably I would start with the 240 min charts - they also allow me to see at a glance bigger moves, although the 60 min charts show more details.

The yellow horizontal lines, marked S1, S2,...Sn or R1, R2, ...Rn come from Scott's HSI indicator, and the bright blue lines come from mine BP (Banker's Promise) trade. It is obvious that the HSI is a lot more important, although BP fibs hit pivots quite often too, and especially important are the good confluences between both. Also in the case of the 240 min charts it is obvious that the swing trades quite often match the wave structure of the developing move. Another important thing to mention - the HSI, being an absolute Fibonacci based indicator, allowes after a major Top/Bottom to measure the developing Price move on any pair - you can measure it in pips, or in the Sn/Rn level hit, or in both. The amount of pips covered in the move is relative - for different pairs the same amount of pips means quite a different level of completion of the move, but the Sn/Rn level, being an absolute value, says the same for any pair. Of course, the pairs with higher volatility allow for a higher maximum level of HSI to be hit (Sn or Rn), but after you get familiar with your pair you know what to expect - meaning you can evaluate the current Price move, comparing it to the maximums that this pair could do.

In this post only the really big picture will be covered, the details will follow on different posts. Attachment 1 shows the first big move on the 240 min chart - starting approximately 22 months ago. Usually Price has a very rough time getting through the first 2 levels of HSI (S1,and S2, or R1 and R2), and that area is generally not a very good place for swing trades. From R2 to the first top at approximately R6.5 Price took about 5 weeks to cover about 710 pips. To me that vertical distance consists of 3 swing trades (notes 1, 3, and 5) and 2 correctional moves - 2 and 4. Correcctional move 2 is a big bull flag, and correctional move 4 is a very big pole flag (it has a special name, but that does not change the nature of it - a continuation pole flag). It is obvious that the 5 notes actually describe the 5 waves of a trending move.

Attachment 2 shows the next 3 weeks - basically covering the time it took Price to draw a second top. For the first 2 weeks Price did a 3 waves Prechter move down to the S4.7 (320 pips). After that it took 1 week to climb back and slightly overshoot the first top. On the attachments for this post - all four - I have all the important info, I made these attachments now. PB means a Pull Back (the biggest one, the one we have to consider). The attachments for the next posts were made earlier, the notes on them will be different.

Attachments 3 and 4 actually show the big picture. Attachment 3 shows a 14.5 weeks move down to Support level 7.0 (S7), S7 (or R7) is a huge move for EU, but the move did not stop there. Attachment 4 shows the continuation of that move - from S7 to S8. It took 1.5 years for EU to cover the distance of 8 Support levels. The distance from S7 to S8 took about 450 days Both moves - from 0 to S7, and from S7 to S8, are big enough, and long enough, to be looked upon in details. For example in attachment 3 the move starts with a 9 weeks symmetrical wedge, which reaches level S5 - there are plenty of swing moves in that wedge alone, and the following swing move from S4 to S7, which can comfortably be divided into 2 swing moves, is a huge move. Also in the S7-S8 move, which ended on September 30th 2019, there are plenty of swing moves.

The idea, after looking in detail in the smaller swing trades, is to figure out what is the average distance a swing trade in EU travels, from which Support/Resistance level it starts, what size PBs could be expected, and at what levels. What are the circumstances around the start and the end of that swing trade? Statistics usually works well for that, and getting these statistics is what I am trying to do.

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Thomas

Wow, very interesting stuff here.
Thanks for all the input.

 
Dreamer

@vesskrastev

I have spent a good amount of time reading this thread with much interest. Thank you for your generosity and motivation to share all this! I especially enjoyed "How Do the Trading Days Work" : it makes a lot of sense.

I also enjoy ProActTraders explanations about the market and I have no doubts that it works for them and some of the traders that follow their advices.

But my question after reading all this and seeing the efforts it would take to try to digest and apply all this and more is the following: does it work for you ? Do you have a good profitability and consistency ? I am amazed by @tryguylm results and when I see his charts, it doesn't look so complicated - although he's obviously very very smart and has a great analysis of the market. Some of the techniques of Apiary Fund traders also seem much easier and mechanical - although the discretionary part of their trading that makes ALL the difference is not easy to capture and apply either…

This is not meant to be negative or critical in any way but is just the sincere question I am asking myself before investing more in this way of seeing the market and trading : if you have spent so much time trying to understand and apply ProActTraders way of trading and analyzing the market, does it now work for you now or not yet ? Are you just trying to improve a powerful strategy and analysis that works for you, or still in the quest of finding a working, efficient, consistent, profitable strategy and analysis of the market ? (I have no doubt that FIBs, H4, Elliott Waves, etc. do work, but I see that many of us seem to struggle to apply all this knowledge correctly to our charts, and move fast to funded accounts, then to higher levels of funded accounts… and that's the main goal of the game.)

Please continue this GREAT thread. I hope you will understand the sincere interrogation of a "NewBee" dreaming about success - like you do. Again, thank you very much! :-)

 
vesskrastev

@ Thomas and @ Dreamer

Thank you very much.

Dreamer, the answer of your question is very simple - I am still a newbie, a Forex baby. My first encounter with candles was less than 2.5 years ago. Allen has been trading for at least 8 years, Tryguy has been trading for a long time also. In ProAct all of the really good traders have been around for about 10 years or more. That long exposure gives the necessary experience.

Knowledge is power, I crave knowledge, but just getting the initial unrderstanding of something for a first itme, and getting amazed at how it works, does not give you the experience. Only time gives you the experience. Also the really successful traders talk about the Art of Trading, not the Science of Trading. Again, only time will get you to the Art. Art is not created in one way only. That is why it is an Art - there are many ways to create it. After checking preliminary quite a few of the ways, I am leaning towards 2 ways of trading - trading the "pulses" of the GBP pairs, and trading the swing sequences of the average volatility pairs. In my understanding that is the proper way to learn - get a good wide overview of almost everything, and then chose what suits you the best. The result of my first look into the swing trades was the BP trade and the super extended 6.854 fib. Now, at second look, the patterns of the development of the price moves, measured in Support/Resistance HSI levels, the time it took for them to be completed, and the expected size of the PBs, should become more or less clear. There is one more very powerfull "long distance" trade, that I have to spend some time with. Also, I need a lot of practice with trading the pulses - the proper way to do that is on a simulated MT4 account, using SynergyFX.

In 2 words - I am trying to perfect couple of strategies. I also have plans to spend additional time studying time fibs. Now I completely understand that it takes time to get to that simple and tried way of trading that you can call your way. It took me long time to get rid of the urge to trade at any cost right now - the results of that were many lost fibs (and dolars) and tones of lost time.

 
vesskrastev

Smaller size swing trades of EU

On this post are discussed screenshots from the 240 min charts, the swing trades from the 60 min charts will be discussed later. These are my first screenshots, devoted to swing trades, and not everything is printed there, although one can still see and get that missing info from the charts. Also, I have to see what candle sequences connect the price moves from the screenshots - the long boring boxes that I skipped. For EU a price move, ending at 3.5 to 4 Support/Resistance level, is a good move, and is definitely worth trading.

On attachment 1 we see a price move up to R6.5. It could be easily divided into 2 big swing trades, or 4 smaller ones. The first bigger swing is b/n R1.8 and R4.8, with a bull flag b/n R3 and R2. There is a major correction b/n R4.8 and R3.5, which separates the 2 big swings. Then halfway through the second swing there is a major box between R5.5 and R5.8, which at the end morfs into an ascending wedge. It is important to point at the perfect confluence b/n HSI and BP.

On attachment 2 we see a big box b/n S2 and S5, with at least 2 good swing trades. That box ends with a perfect swing trade from S3 to S6.5 - a long, long swing with basically no sizable pull backs. Identifying and trading a swing trade like that is basically at the top of my expectations.

On attachment 3 we see a very good swing trade b/n S3 and S7, divided into 2 halfs by a big bear flag - a PB of about 140 pips. On attachment 4 we see 2 swing trades - the first one b/n S1 and S5, and the second one b/n S3.5 and S5.6. Again, very good confluences are seen, and price duly acknowledges them. On attachment 5 we see 3 swing trades, which perfectly match the waves 1, 3, and 5 of a trending move (not a trend, because wave 4 - the second correction - gets into the area of Wave 2 and breaks one of the main riles of a Trend). These swings are b/n S2 and S4.5; S2 and S4.7; and b/n S3.2 and S5.2.

Attachment 6 shows the last 6 months of activity of EU. I have marked 5 swing trades, but it is possible to combine trades 3 and 4 into one. With the 2 of them combined, we have: Swing 1 from S1 to S4; Sw2 - from S3 to S5: Sw3 - from S3.5 to S5.5; and Sw 4 - from S4.5 to S5.7.

On all of the attachments we can see Price acknowledging both the HSI levels, and the BP fibs (HSI having more weight than BP) - a very convincing proof that when Price reaches HSI or BP level into a current and developing trade, we have to pay close attention and expect a change of direction, or at least price stalling for a while.

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chericonn50

Congrats on moving towards Gold 1 so fast, I understand it usually takes much longer.

 
FrankS

After watching a few more ProAct Traders' vids, I noticed a key statement that I read before but now it meant a lot more to me. "The Big Boys plan on the H4 and make entries on the H1." If that is indeed the case, then does it make sense that perhaps even scalpers watching the H1 just for the color of the bar as a bias filter for M1 and M5 trades, regardless of the trading method used, has merit?

Based on what I experienced today with Eur/Jpy, the H1 acted well as a bias filter for the M1 and the M5 far better (at least no worse) than an MA reflecting 60 minutes on an M1 or an M5 chart, and it was not confusing whereby I had to decipher amidst the other lines on the chart. Moreover, a green bar on H1 with a long wick on the top is really a red wick signifying a pullback. So it behooved me to immediately view the M5 and M1 for refining the assessment.

I realize this may not affect longer-term traders here, but for scalpers, I think it is a rationale fit. The only reason I bring this up is that the Gold-1 criteria (win profit % > Lose Loss %, etc.) are tougher rows to hoe for scalpers. So, in that sense, the Target Trading philosophy can indeed lend a helping hand.

 
Dreamer

@vesskrastev Thank you for answering my question. I am half satisfied with the answer : it is still not clear wether you have found how to be consistently positive yet in your trading and which strategy is working for you if this is the case. Most of your answer is a new explanation about a new analysis of the market pulses.

Consistently profitable yet or not ?… Successful strategy found yet or not, which one(s) ?… ;-)

Have a good trading day. :-)

 
vesskrastev

@ chericonn50

Thank you, although Gold 1 was achieved long time ago. After Gold 1 the speed with which I was moving ahead slowed down substantially.

@ FrankS

It happens to me often - I hear something again, and again, and I think - of course, yes, it is almost obvious. And then, at some point it hits me - there is a lot more in that statement, than I originally thought. Unfortunately, I cannot figure out a way how tospeed up that process. Regarding the wicks - one very talanted target trader said this (this is my retelling, not the exact words): "The wick works for the candle the same way as the tail of the tadpol. The tail moves one way, the tadpol moves the opposite way." The longer the wick - the stronger the tail, the faster price moves the opposite way of the wick.

@ Dreamer

You will make a very good investigator. Straigh to the point - I am not consistantly profitable yet, which means that a successful strategy is not yet finalized. Shame on me? I don't think so. There are not that many consistantly profitable traders - in Apiary, and everywhere. And when you read their profiles you see that all of them had a very prolonged exposure to trading. I still manage to alone earn $100,000+ in my limo business, and to come up with a couple of original things in Forex, by the way widely used and respected by the ProAct target traders. The focus of my answer was the swing trades, not the pulses - 1.5 sentences dealt with the pulses. In my opinion it is only possible to successfully trade the pulses in Alveo if you can spend on that at least 4 to 5 hours a night and early morning - during the nights when they move, and I cannot do that. It is possible to trade them without constantly watching them, but only if your trading software is MT4 compatible.

Nothing new to add - after some time of exploration I am narrowing down to working on swing trades, and on trading pulses. I hope this answer satisfies your expectations. Have a great trading day!

 
vesskrastev

EU Swing Trades on 60 min Charts

The average EU price move usually ends around Support/Resistance levels 3 or 4 and lasts between 1 and 2 weeks. To me the possibility for a swing trade starts after Level 1 and after price crosses T3. If one average EU move is immediately, or very soon, followed by another one in the same direction, then we get one of those bigger moves, shown on the 240 min charts - of course, these 2 consecutive moves are separated by a correctional move The attachments below show some examples of the average EU moves.

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Dreamer

@vesskrastev Thank you very much for your honest and clear answer. I am 100% satisfied this time. :-) There is no shame on you nor on me nor on anyone here, I hope. We are pretty much all doing our best, I think. :-)

If you agree to follow my reasoning, your answer does provide a very important lesson to me. Even with ProAct traders tools, advices, methodology, resources and probably hundred of hours of study and practice, a very motivated, passionate, very interesting trader like you still has difficulties discovering and implementing a consistent strategy with a good positive expectancy - and I should add "and even with everything available to us on Apiary Fund"…

I plan on launching a new thread with a title like "Basic trading strategies that work for (almost) anyone". This thread would be a place to share very simple, basic, methodical strategies with as little discretionary inputs as possible as a base to launch from for newbies. I know that this is what is intended by Apiary Fund, but I have been trying live and backtesting many of the strategies presented by Apiary Fund and I conclude that the discretionary aspect is still the main key that makes them either highly profitable or sometimes a total disaster. Advices, rebukes or suggestions about this idea are welcome from any successful trader with consistent profits. ;-)

The only simple, methodical, basic strategy that I know which is close to breakeven without any discretionary input from the trader is the SAR strategy that Rex Johnson teaches. It does for sure function well in non ranging markets. I am at this time trying to apply a variation of it (he speaks about making it profitable by finding a "filter") that I have backtested with success in ForexTester 4 on many years in a row on D1 EURUSD. I am back to basics. Apiary Fund clearly states that too complex strategies and too many indicators are the path to failure for beginners. Obviously, some succeed in trading with a few principles and key concepts that would sometimes seem too simple to be true. Todd's 89 HMA scalping strategy with 3 pips TP rules are very simple, but the identification of the "good pullbacks" to enter a position is key, as is identifying the losses to cut short and when to cut them short. This is where the difference is made between making this strategy highly profitable or highly detrimental to one's funds.

Thank you @vesskrastev. I wish you good success in your quest.

 
vesskrastev

Hi Dreamer!

What you plan to do is great! It is absolutely necessary. If you excuse me, let me get a little bit philosophical. Having something simple and proven to start is necessary. Unfortunately it does not stop there. You have heard it probably many times already, Allen mentions it also in his tread - Becoming a successful full time trader is a marathon run, not a sprint. For close to 2 years I was not paying attention to that and was trying to sprint (may be because in my young years I was one of the best sprinters in the high school). Then 8 months ago my attitude changed, and about 3 months ago I became really serious about training for marathon.

How does it work (for me at least)? Earlier all I cared about was - tell me your strategy! Then I realized - successful strategies are the fruit of long, long efforts, and they are taylored to the individuality of the trader who shares that strategy. The fact that this strategy works great for him or her does not necessarily mean that it will work great for you - even though you learned all the small details about it. Here are just a few of the startegies, used by the target traders - trading Close And Reverse, trading BreakOuts (with some great specifics attached to it, which I am not at liberty to discuss), trading specific patterns, trading reversals, trading the daily pulses of pairs (if you spend some time applying fibs to the succession of price moves, you will probably understand what is this all about), trading news events (for VERY experienced traders), trading Square Ups, trading trending moves, trading boxes, trading specific price moves overnight, swing trading,...

The highly successful target traders have mastered a few of these strategies - after checking out a lot of them - and after long years of efforts. One cannot prepare for a marathon in a few months only, unless that person is a super athlete. Just completing the marathon is a huge achievement, I am not talking about winning it. They all have 2-3 favorite strategies, which they apply to just a few pairs, some of them even specialize in one strategy. These traders know everything that there is to know about their pairs - and that knowledge alone takes a very long time to acquire. I have a huge respect for one of them, who trades very successfuly almost everything - he has his own hedge fund.

And all of the above is still not everything - they tell you - the biggest problem is in your head. Not being psychologycally ready for the task can derail even the best strategy. Lately Jerry gave us a great way to look at target trading. He said: "In your trades you have to learn to be the best sniper, not a machine gunner". I was trying to be basically a gunner, using some of the target tactics (or whatever I thought that I knew about them). It did not work. Now I am trying to learn to be a sniper - and it takes a lot of efforts and time.

Once again, what you plan to do is great. There should be some proven stepping stones to start from, but after that the long learning curve should start - that is the only way to get to the top. 90% of the Forex retail traders fail, and out of the 10% who are profitable only 1/10 of them make it big. That means that in order to achieve our dreams to become professional traders we have to hit the top 1%. That also means that we should put into that process more efforts than the other 99%. And unfortunately none of that comes quickly, especially if you work full time, or more than full time (time wise). Hoping to achieve a fast success is hoping to sprint through the marathon - that basically never works (Scott said that out of the thousnds that he had trained there was only one natural trader, who got everything basically from the first try and very fast - he reached the top before he was 30). On the other hand all we need to do is to persevere - that is what gets you through the marathon.

 
broslansky

@Vess,

I really appreciate your encouraging story. We should compare ourselves to ourselves. The person posting the ENORMOUS gains and the person posting the crying session are two different people. Each one needs to learn from their past and try something different. I would venture the ENORMOUS gains are concurrently adjoined to cry stories - we just don't always hear them.

All too often, not just in Forex but also in life, when we realize that something is broken, we turn 180 degrees in order to fix everything. In all reality, we break everything and fix nothing.

Imagine driving at highway speed, 65 in most areas. Make a decision. Do I want an accident in the left ditch or the right ditch? Every one would say "neither ditch". So, when we're driving, we are constantly watching the painted lines, verifying that we're on course and we're looking to prevent any and all problems on the road. When there is the slightest problem, like drifting to the shoulder, we make a very slight correction and get back on course. Any correction other than very slight will send the car to the other side. We avoid one accident by creating another.

So, in Forex, we spend too much time looking at the monster returns or our neighbor's green pips, respectively drooling or crying (I've done both). Instead, look at your own track record and learn from your past. Make small corrections and keep learning.

In Gold I, I'm keep nailing the trend of the market (mid - upper 90% accuracy). However, I keep getting stopped out because I miss the ATR or other natural dynamics of the market. Then, the next day, the market returns as expected - groan.

I'm not very good at scalping. Don't have the touch. I'm too busy to scalp for a few hours each day. I determined that I'm not going there. I win on a series of long term positions and get creamed on scalping, giving up my win / loss ratio.

Therefore, I started looking for long term strategies that fit my style - like this post.

@Vess, I thoroughly enjoy the plethora of information here and the multiple references to Proact. Yes, I've been pouring as much information in head from Scott and Proact as humanly possible. Starting to see why I'm making so many mistakes. I'm reading the markets the wrong way. Only 30% of forex market long term trends like futures. The Forex market has a different "mind" than futures. Instead look for range bound parameters - makes total sense. I wasn't looking for predetermined targets. I was happy to pull 20 pips and leave 100 on the table. I was happy to set up marginal positions and missed high probability trades. Lessons learned.

The recurring theme of the Apiary instructors encourages their Traders to find a system that fit your personality. Shawn uses the wobble; Dave wobbles, Todd uses the 89 HMA. Others here on the forum are position traders.

So, we keep trying and stop looking at the others' successes / failures.

The Bible says "In all labor, there is profit. Mere talk only brings poverty."

 
vesskrastev

Update on my XCELL statistics - and Why Do I Continue Collecting them

The files below show the last data. The last week seems like everybody went asleep - with the exception of EU, UCHF, and EN. These 3 pairs did nothinf\g spectacular, but at least they kept up with the average of what they normally do lately. The reason for that slow down? I think it is obvious - GBP is the third most powerful currency tpo impact Forex (after USD and EUR) and in a few days we will (or we will not?) have Brexit. I cannot wait for that Brexit soap opera to be over - I understand there are important, major issues there for both sides involved, but from my own point of view it creates a total mess in the way I try to plan my trades.

Why are the statistics necessary? Scott loves to say: "the Big Boys will do what they always do!" How do I find out what they usually do? The answer is simple - go back in time, see what they did statistically. From the charts that I posted previously for EU, it seems to me that when they start a move, they usually go to R/S levels of 4 to 4.5 and lately it takes them about 4 weeks to do that - I call that move the "small move", or the "average move." After that there will be a change of direction, resulting in 2 possibilities. The first one is that a corrective move will start (temporarl change in direction), followed by a second "small move," in direction of the first small move, which will bring the total move to R/S levels somewhere between 7 and 8 (counting from the start of "small move" 1). The second possibility is that a reversal will start, which means that we can expect a new small move, probably again to level 4 to 4.5, and again lasting about 4 weeks (give or take), in a direction opposite to that of the first one.

Attachments 1, 2, and 3 show as small moves of EU on 60 min chart, and attachment 4 shows us the last small move, which ended at the beginning of the last week. The rest of the week price did a correctional move to the bottom of the channel, and actually broke out of it. Now EU is in the perfect position to start a move in either direction. If it starts a move up, it will be the fifthe wave of the last small move. If it starts a move down, it will continue the Break and the Hook, which were already created by the BBs at the end of the last week. There is a conversion for a move down on MACD, which makes the move down more probable. On the other hand, the next "hump' of MACD may break that convergence down, and favor a move up.

One thing is for sure, the correctional move of the last week seems to be over, or almost over. That means that we are up for the next move. There is a good chance that it will be another move to level 4.5, or so. Lets see will it be a move up, or down.

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Weekly and Daily ATR.xlsx 106.59 KB
Weekly Actual ATRs and Total Moves.xlsx 72.55 KB
Daily Currency Statistics.xlsx 520.15 KB
 
Rookie

I like the comments, for the sake of an open EU trade, I would like to see a 25-35 pip bullish move. In doing my none math homework it would appear the bears are in control roughly 60/40 but then comes the news this week. It is clearly a big week with BOC, BOJ and US report galore, no doubt Mr. Trump will tweet in on Wednesday not that the day needs any more action. And then there is the unannounced surprise news for GBP. All retorhit aside I'm inclined to think we will see a gradually gathering of momentum for the DXY back to the 98 zone and if mostly good news or a .35% rate cut back to a 99 zone. But once again thats all speculation.

 
vesskrastev

@ Ed (Rookie)

Ed, I agree with everything you say. USDX may be moving up, possibly just temporary, which means that for the moment EU will probablymmove down. So far it is not conclusive, but very shortly it may become.

@ broslansky

I love your quotation from the Bible: "In all labor, there is profit. Mere talk only brings poverty.' It must be from Proverbs. Labor is the key to success. And going over your results. Seeing what others do is helpful - seeing what may work well, and what may fail bad. On the other hand, one has to pay attention to the smallest details of the system he or she uses - all of these details matter, although it may seem in the beginning that they are not that important.

 
vesskrastev

My Major Drawback

For about 1.5 years I kept turning small to midsize wins into huge losses. I would come to 0.25% gain on the account, or 0.5%, or 0.75%, in rare cases even 1%, and then I will turn that into a 1% loss, or 2% loss, or even 3% loss. Thank God, on the funded account I have never hit the 5% and 2% restrictions (both of them were hit only once while I was in the beeline, out of ignorance - after that I started paying attention). I think I finally figured out the reason for my repeated fiascos. I have been always concentrating on strategy, and a lot less on tactics. Also by nature I am very impatient - all of that contributed to the repeating turns of a win into a loss.

Target trading teaches the Scout system. Applying that system properly assures that if you have a loss (which is unaviodable to happen now and then), that loss will be on a single trade with only a portion of the funds, allocated for the whole trade. On the other hand, if price moved the way you predicted, you will have multiple wins, with more funds allocated to them, than the funds for the Scout trade ( Scout is the first trade, which is "allowed" to be a loser). This way your wins will always exceed f the cases your losses.

The reason for my wins turning into losses was mainly my impatience. As it turns out, I basically almost always was right in my assesment of what direction the main price move would take. In about 50% of the cases my second trade would be started on time, but everything that followed was started way early. In the other 50% all the trades after the first one were started way too early. The result of that was that when the inevitable retracement would start (as a rule almost immediately as I did that way too early major scaling in), soon I would accumulate a sizeable negative balance and would close the trades, just to find out that a little bit later price assumed its expected direction and would have given me a very good win (if I stayed in). Even worse was that now and then it would work out - I would be able to withstand the negative push, and end with a good win - giving me the wrong idea that my planning was good, just my execution was bad. In reality I did not plan for the retracement - it is completely possible to calculate approximately where the retracement would start, and how long on average would it last (statistics come very handy here, although they are not everything).

The other way my impatience worked against me was that I never completely went over all the rules, and started trading knowing and using just the main ones. As it came out, all the rules are main rules. The third way my impatience worked against me, was that I basically never used the simulated account for getting familiar with the new way of trading - I was learning at the expense of my funded account.

For a long time I have been planning to buy and read the book "The Disciplined Trader.' Seems that now is just the perfect time to do that.

 
FrankS

I'm in Gold-1 conflict these days, as tight stops to meet the stats are getting hit far too often. Trading Eur/Jpy.

 
Rookie

Frank, you have been around the block at least once already, you know its not the tight stops, It's in the process and cash management. That's what the gold levels are all about!
I think the saying might be physician heal thy self.
Enjoy!

 
vesskrastev

Hi Frank!

I have been there, I was there until very recently (although in slightly different circumstances). The problem is not your Stop Loss, the problem is your Entrie Points. We all like to enter when we are SURE what price is doing at the moment, when the price move had proven itself. Unfortunately that is exactly the time when the BBs are ready to start a retracement (or a pull back, which is one of these substantially bigger retracements, which happen once in a 3 or 4 retracements - it depends on your pair). We enter, and the retracement starts, and that is when the Stop Loss (which we calculated based on a continual move in the original direction, not on a retracement move) cannot hold, and we lose.

The proper way to enter is at the end of the retracement and the beginning of the move AGAIN in the original direction of the impulse move. How can we know when the retracement will end? Obviously we have to wait for it to start. Then we have to try to calculate where it would end. How can we calculate that? We go back in time and check what that pair does normally.

On attachments 1, 2, 3, and 4 you can see 4 consecutive moves down of EJ, and their retracements - the first one started on October 21st. We measure the retracements in fibs, not in pips (although the pips are also important - you base the amount of your stop loss on the average retracent that your pair does). The BBs never finish a move on a random place - it will be on a mathematical reason for that - a fib, or a Support/Resistance level (which is nothing else, but a fib of a preceding price move), or on a channel wall, or on a round number, etc... With black lines I have marked the price moves, which were retraced; and I circled the end of the retracements.

You can see that the first move was retraced to the 0.618 fib; the second one - to 0.500; the third one (which was a combined move) was retraced to 0.618 also; and the 4th move was retraced to 0.382. You can place fibs on "straight" moves, or on combined moves - on attachment 5 I have marked with different colors a few combined moves.

How for would price retrace after a move? The normal retracement is to 0.500. Unsustainable moves (attachment 4) are retraced to 0.382; some moves are retraced to 0.618 or to 0.786. Some traders also distinguish between a 0.786 retracement and 0.876 retracement - I don't. The point is - you figure out what your pair normally does, wait for the retracement to start, calculate where it would most likely end, and enter when you get a confirmation that price had reversed again and is now moving in the original direction of the impulse move. You ONLY enter at this point - this way you know that the retracement is just behind your back, and you have the longest possible stretch of a continuation move ahead of you.

With a lot of words I said what has been said many times before - including in videos that I have previously posted - Enter on a retracement and exit on an extension. I figured out that some time ago BUT I would not apply that rule consistently. More or less I would enter properly on the first trade, but on the following ones (when scaling in, which is absolutely necessary) I would forget about waiting for the retracement, and would rush to enter with additional trades, since the price move had already proved itself. At least I finally figured that out. Better late than never...

By the way, EJ is a great pair to trade when on the way out. It consistently "draws" bear flags, which are highly predictable.

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vesskrastev

Frank, one more thing. I wrote about that earlier also. This is not a tip on how to make pips, this is a tip on how to pass a test. Positive expectancy means that 4 weeks from now the balance of your account should be bigger than what it is now. You still have to do the required minimum 5 trades a week. Just make sure that if a trade STARTS going against you, you cut it off very early. I am not saying that you have to intentionally do losses - no, just cut he loss immediately. A good trade, properly entered, will immediately go in your favor. Let the good trades run longer than the bad ones. This way after 4 weeks all of the requirements will be fullfilled - no matter what is the situation now.

 
vesskrastev

USDX and EU now

The news event this morning (the fundie) was positive for USD. It confirmed the latest moves of USDX. On attachments 1 and 2 you can see USDX on 60 min and 240 min charts - everything is green, and pointing up (except the 5 min chart, but that chart displays very short lived moves). The top of the box is at approximately 99.000, and there is still some room for USDX to move. If it continues moving that fast, it will be there quite quickly. Attachment 3 shows that currently MACD shows a conversion for a move up.

Attachments 4,5, and 6 show EU. USD going up means EU going down - it is obvious form the charts. Attachments 4 and 5 show the EU move on 240 min chart - EU broke the Single Line Trend Line (SLTL) and is moving down, everything is in red color. On the 240 min chart there is still not enough info to evaluate MACD (diversion or conversion), but on the 60 min chart (attachment 6) we can see an obvious conversion for a move down.

Screenshot (991).png Screenshot (992).png Screenshot (993).png Screenshot (994).png Screenshot (995).png Screenshot (996).png
 
holeejo

I was with ProAct traders at one point, then lost my job and couldn't afford to continue. I'm glad to see that they post current analysis on Youtube. I'll maybe remember the target method.

 
Ericsan

Vess, I appreciate your information. I agree with you on we must be in sync with how the big boys are trading. I trade the 4 hour and 1 hour charts. I use support and resistance and candle signals to find my entries. I look for key areas of support/resistance then wait to see if the levels are going to be respected. If yes, I wait for 2 full candles to close in the direction I think the market is going. If the 3rd candles opens below the previous candle , I take the trade. I am working to get my trades more profitable via tightening my stop and increasing my target range. Happy Trading!

 
sherpalm03

Interesting article. I was referred to this article via another post and I'm glad I was! Thanks for the information; it will be very helpful while continuing to learn Forex trading.

 
vesskrastev

USDX and EU Today

USDX seems to be turning down. On attachment 1 you can see how all the longer term indicators are red and pointing down. On the Heiken Ashi charts (the 3 horizontal charts on the bottom) you can see also how Tom DeMark lines cap and "restrict" the moves up - they show that price is moving down. On attachment 2 you can see the last few moves of USDX in detail. There is a clear divergence for a move down. Also you can see how USDX is changing direction exactly at the confluence of 2 fibs - 0.500 fib retracement of the previous big move down, and the 4.236 BP fib (the 4.236 extension of the first move up). If you look higher, you can see how the exact confluence of the 0.786 Retracement fib and the 6.854 BP fib hits exactly at the previous H4 pivot (could not stop myself at pointing that - you know, everything in Forex is random...)

On attachment 3 you can see how EU is gladly complying with the USDX move. USD down means EU up, and EU is moving up. The move down, which started on November 3rd, has had so far only retracements, and no major pull backs. It is a time for a pull back. Price turned up exactly at the 0.382 retracement fib of the previous big move up (the black diagonal line to the left, shown only partially). There was a clear divergence - price was moving down, while the "humps" of MACD (bottom, right) were pointing up, and we just had a "0" line break (the histogram broke the 0 line in direction up). Price also broke through the SLTL, marked in yellow. Applying a retracement fibs to the last move down, you can see a couple of very good confluences, circled in black on the very right side of the screenshot. I would expect price to definitely acknowledge these "special" values (special, because they were preplanned).

Screenshot (1014).png Screenshot (1013).png Screenshot (1016).png
 
basilaro

all the best.

 
vesskrastev

@ holeejo, @ Ericsa, @ sherpalm03, and @basilaro

Thank you very much! Good trading to you!

How GN Moves Long Term

The way I understand a swing trade is shown on attachment 1 - enclosed inside the black rectangle. You can see how T3 runs diagonally up (the bright blue line), how the moving averages (60 min and 240 min are alligned and basically parallel to it on the left side, and price runs to the left of the moving averages. My task is to figure out how to recognize such a type of price run when it is just starting.

GN generally is not considered the best one for swing trading, but I am interested in it and I took a closer look - some interesting results came from it. Attachment 2 shows the general pattern - price does a symmetrical triangle (wedge), and the Break Out from it (B/O) is a Swing trade. At the end of the Swing Trade there is an A-B-C, followed by another sym. wedge, which resolves again in a Swing Trade.

Attachments 3, 4, 5, and 6 show in chronological order on a 60 min chart how this pattern of a sym. wedge, followed by a Swing Trade, happens again, and again, and again. Attachment 7 shows that pattern in a bigger detail. The B/O of the Swing Trade starts from the Equilibrium line of the sym wedge, and the Equilibrium line lies in an area where T3 runs horizontal. The HSI was applied, and the equilibrium line was at the S2 level. From what I have seen, for basically all the pairs with average or high ATR, S2 (or R2) is usually the level, where a Swing Trade starts (the 0 point is at the last reversal).

If we look back at attachment 6, we will see that within the sym wedge T3 was not horizontal - it was drawing a sinusoid with a decreasing amplitude. That simply means that the size of that sym wedge was quite bigger - and in that case the Equilibrium line (the horizontal line in the middle) was at the S3 level (not at the S2 level as in the previous case). Bigger size of the sym wedge means also a bigger and longer Swing Trade at the B/O of that sym wedge.

For me it means that I will be searching for a place where T3 goes horizontal - normally price will draw a sym wedge in that area. When that sym. wedge narrows enough, I could expect price to B/O into a Swing Trade - roughly from the area of the Equilibrium line of the wedge. MACD will give me an indication about the expected direction of the B/O. If T3 does not go gorizontal, but draws a horizontal decreasing sinusoid, that simply means that a bigger size sym. wedge is being drawn out, and a longer Swing Trade could be expected.

If we look again at attachment 6, we will see that the longer Swing Trade does not allow T3 to go horizontal. T3 keeps climbing up, wiggling right and left, but not going horizontal. On attachment 7 we can see that in that case price actually draws a Rising Wedge - it resolves in a move down, which actually happened quite quickly.

To summarize - quite unexpected results for me. GN likes to draw symm. wedges (in an area where T3 moves generally horizontal) after which it goes into a Swing Trade. If for a long time T3 refuses to go horizontal, that means that a Rising (or Falling) Wedge is being drawn out, which will ultimately end with a reversal and in a while a new Swing Trade will follow.

Screenshot (1033).png Screenshot (1021).png Screenshot (1027).png Screenshot (1028).png Screenshot (1029).png Screenshot (1030).png Screenshot (1031).png
 
dcliff83

I am a Target Trader too. The Most Important thing is how to define Real Good Target for The Most Pips.....

 
dcliff83

I am a Target Trader too. The Most Important thing is how to define Real Good Target for The Most Pips.....

 
vesskrastev

@ dcliff83

Yes, I agree - the first and foremost task is to find Real Good Targets for The Most Pips. After that, though, comes the task to execute the trades to these Far Target the proper way - to account for all the barriers on the way, for the expected (and guaranteed) Retracements on the way, and also for the eventual, although seldom, pull backs.

Allen Gold has very successfully solved that problem in a slightly different way. He does not shoot for the whole run of price, he shoots just for the Break Out of the GBP pairs from the Asian Box. He shoots for a portion of the whole run, but for the most reliable and predictable portion. That allows him to bet big amounts (2%) on a single trade, and to win consistently.

If one manages to successfully identify the highest grade trades AND to successfully run them to their full potential, theorethically one could get higher returns. Why? - because after the initial trade becomes profitable, the risk for that trade is already covered, which allows for another 2% (or whatever the trader is comfortable with) to be risked again, and when that second trade is profitable in the same way its risk is covered and could be invested into a third trade, etc. Of course, doing that one faces a higher risk - the longer you stay into these multiple trades, the higher is the chance for a retracement, or, God forbid, for a pull back on multiple trades. What Allen does is simple, reliable, and highly predictable. It has the added advantage of requiring a relatively short time. Trying to capture the whole potential of these "high grade" trades, with multiple runs, carries the possibility of higher returns, but also requires additional skills in managing these longer trades (PO17), increases the risk that something may go wrong, and of course, requires a lot longer time being "married" to the trade. If only Alveo was MT4 compatible, and FX Synergy would be able to work with it...

 
dave.b

thanks again vess for all time - really appreciate it

 
vesskrastev

@ dave.b

You are welcome Dave! I am a curious guy, I like to check different things, and if I find anything interesting, I am happy to share it.

Interesting Video About AUD

I participated in Allen Gold's training for the Ichimoku Gold Method (not in 100% capacity, for which I am sorry), and the starting point of it is to compare the strength of the pairs he trades (they are all GBP pairs). When I was measuring on my own the strength of the currencies, using his method, AUD was consistently coming as the weakest, or the second weakest. Allen showed us his results, which are attached below, showing exactly the same - I believe I am not breaking any restrictions by showing them.

Below is a link to a YouTube video about AUD and the activity of the Australian banks. It is 18 min long, but I find it quite interesting. I hope it will be interesting for you too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRDqxjR9I-0

Image 1.png Image 2.png Image 3.png
 
drrichardson77

I am a Target Trader too. I am a Mentor helping people psychologically in Trading because if you can control precisely your Fear and Greed, you can be highly successful. I have something to share how I trade very profitably if you are interested please email at Bipin819@me.com OR Text at 813-390-5738. Thanks and God Bless ALL.

 
vesskrastev

Thank you for answering Dr. Richardson!

Sooner or later the strategy and tactics questions get answered, and then the main problem gets ahead - as Scott loves to say, it is located between your right and left ears. Psychology was defining in your struggle to get there also, but from that point on it is the main obstacle. I am very interested, and will contact you, thank you for the offer!

 
Rookie

and one more Bipin strikes.
Lookout, head for cover they have invaded the hive!

 
FXGold54

It looks like bpin819 is hacking accounts since this post is up under several different hive names:

CSEholding and drrichardosn

 
vesskrastev

Back to the Basics - But Really Good Basics

I have mentioned that before many times - enter on Retracement, exit on Extension. The video below talks about that, shows you everything, including where your stop should be - and is quite short.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kz6-8nQLRHM

 
vesskrastev

Regarding bipin819 - I saw that also under a woman's name - Tara, or something like that. It was a relatively recent post. It seems quite strange to me to use different names for the same email address and phone number.

 
Rookie

Vess bipin is under several names and logos...LOL

 
vesskrastev

An Attempt to Predict the way EU will move

I don't normally trade EU, but since trading EU is a very popular topic, this morning I spent about half an hour trying to figure out what do the BBs intend to do (it will take me more than half an hour to write it down). I need the resolution of 60 min chart in order to show the details, but it cannot show the whole movement, so I have to use a few screenshots in order to show everything.

As always the starting point is USDX. Attachment 1 shows that USDX is moving Up, and is in a rising wedge - there are 2 ways to draw it, but it is an unmistakable rising wedge. Everything points up (the black circles), but the rising wedge signals that in the near future there will be a turn down. We can see what MACD says about USDX on attachment 2.The 2 short lines on the right show that currently there is a conversion for a move Up, but the longer lines on the left suggest (although that is a little bit controversial) that on a longer term we still have a diversion - that may change if the histogram on the bottom keeps rising. Attachment 3 shows USDX on 240 min chart, where the diversion is a lot more obvious, and also the fact that quite a hard top has been reached. Seems to me that the Big Boys are trying to move USDX a little bit higher, with the understanding that quite soon after that they have to move it back down.

Attachment 4 shows my BP trade applied to the last 2 tops of EU. There are multiple direct hits on pivots - I actually did not mark all of them since I was focused on the move down - on the second move down basically all of the retracements Up ended on a BP fib. More importantly, these 2 big moves down have the same target - see how good is the confluence between their 2.618 fibs and 4.236 fibs (marked in black rectangles).

Attachment 5 shows the structure of the big move down (the black arrows), and of the current move down (the white arrows). It will be hard to break the confluence of the two 4.236 fibs (they are only 4 pips apart), but seems to me that is what the BBs are trying to do.

Attachment 6 shows what I think will be the last target. On the bottom we have the two 6.854 BP fibs very close to each other. Also we have the 618 Extension fib of the first big move down (the left black arrow) basically coinciding with one of the 6.854 fibs. On top of that we have the Daily chart bottom (marked by the pink line) right there too. It will be very hard to break this multiple confluence, espesially after quite a long run down. The white and ochre arrows on the right show the way I think EU will take to the final target. The white arrows mark a big flag pole trade, and the oche color arrows show a possible way of dring price down (there might be one more bounce up off of the 1.270 small fib).

Will EU move this way? I don't know, the furure will show, but it seems quite likely to me.

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Rookie

Interesting Vess, if you get the crystal ball working we can all retire...::)) or at least join Allen in HI for a month.
Great post!

Attached is my crystal ball for the DXY, it will proceed to complete its upward swing to 2% deviation and perhaps with the Jan FOMC will reverse.

Have a great holiday!

Monthly DXY.PNG
 
cng123

Be careful with bpin819 and a number of aliases that uses Bipin819@me.com OR Text at 813-390-5738 in their advertisements. It seems to me Apiary fund might be hacked.

 
tom.hansen15

Dont fight the FED join them.
Happy trading

 
vesskrastev

@ Tom Hansen

Completely agree - don't fight the FED, join them. The same rule applies to the Big Boys - don't fight them, join them.

Happy Thanksgiving Day to everybody!

 
agamemnon960

Thank you for your insights. I am now funded and look forward to incorporate the BB trades into my strategies.

 
Catechumen

Vesskrastev - I do not ask this to be skeptical. How/where did you get the details of how the Big Boys trade? The fact that they have a way to cooperate with each other is not surprising. It almost seems obvious that they must the way price moves sometimes. The details you provide about lot sizes, fib levels, Eliot Waves, etc. How did you figure that out? Seems like the sort of thing you could only know unless you had been a Big Boy trader. Thank you for the information. I should use fibs more. Eliot Waves I just do not understand.

 
vesskrastev

@ cng123, @ agamemnon960, and @ Catechumen

Thank you very much for contributing to the tread.

@ Catechumen

I used to be a mountain climber when I was young - we called it being an alpinist. Your logo/picture is wonderful - I absolutely love it. I also used to go into caves for exploration and for fun - even my diploma thesis on my Master's Degree in Physics was connected with using physical methods to trace underground carst waters in cave systems.

Now on your question. I have never been a Big Boy trader, actually I never was any kind of trader until in April 2017 I bought 2 Bitcoins and started trading them on my own. Beginners luck - I turned 2 Bitcoins into 3, but then I turned 3 Bitcoins into 1. Then I decided - I have to learn how to trade properly, and came to Apiary Fund. Before that, years ago, I used to have a Securities license - Series 6 and 63, which would allow me to sell mutual funds, and also a Life Insurance license. Never made any money in that field.

Scalping did not fit well into my current limo driver schedule - I have been a small business owner (me, myself and I) since 2005. Six months after I joined Apiary I discovered ProAct Traders and joined them in January 2018, and 3 months later I joined the Fast Track - all of that you can read in the earlier parts of my tread. The reason for me to join them was because they are the best in teachind Day Trading - and I needed to move to a longer term trades. The foundational information about what I describe in the tread, comes from the materials they provide in their website (and in a huge number of free youtube videos) and from attending the daily training rooms. The Fast Track they provide is not cheap (it costs $3,000), but it is, the way I see it, the equivalent of a Master's Degree in Forex Trading - specifically in Day Trading. Fast Track used to teach 10 copyrighted ways to trade Fibonacci's ratios (fibs) - I cannot describe that directly in my tread, although I can give hints. The foundres of ProAct Traders are professional traders for 19 years - they have educated many professional traders, who now have hedge funds, consult banks in Eastern Europe, I think one of them became a Bank trader. Andrew Hiney, who won the Open Forex competition against 2,000 traders, was educated by ProAct, and is now the host of the London Training room - he lives in USA, but the London Training room opens at London Open. At the early stages of ProAct Scott used to travel with bank traders for years - that is how the info regarding them came, also from a lot of info, available on internet - although the majority of that information is not free - you have to pay for it. All I describe in my tread comes from the info, available to visitors (not subscribers) of their website, from the free YouTube videos, or from what I myself have discovered.

In February this year I started playing myself with the 3 click Extension tool (Fibonacci's Extensions), which was kind of neglected by the ProAct traders - they were using (very successfully) only the 2 clicks tool. The result of me playing with the 3 cliks tool became the BP trade (Banker's Promise) trade - I invented it, it is not copyrighted, and I can share it freely. Also I "invented" the super extended Fib ratio of 6.854 (6.854 = 4.236 X 1.618). Invented is in parenthesys because the Big Boys have been using it, I did not invent it, I just stumbled onto it. Also I found a few very interesting ways the T3 indicator (which has proprietary settings - the charts are locked and nobody can get them) works in tandem with MACD and Bolinger Bands. Some very interesting things came from using Fibonacci's ratios on the Time scale, but for now I am waiting for Jerry, the second fouder of ProAct Traders, who is a genius programmer - their award winnig charts, T3 settings, and everything that has to do with programming, comes from him - to give me a tool which can do the counting and marking of the candles. It is very time consuming to do that manually. About a year ago I "pushed" towards developing a weekly ATR tool (they have been using the daily ATR for years), and Jerry incorporated it into the software. I started my statistics in order to provide him with data on the weekly ATR (and to use that data myself) - I found a way to get a very reliable weekly ATR from that part of the charting software that he did not code himself - he probably purchased it, or exchanged it for something of his own coding.

Even Day Trading does not work very well (basically does not fit with my limo driving) - I prefer too trade the GBP pairs, but I
have to start getting ready for work between 1:30 am and 2:30 am, and actually start having customers as of between 3 am and 4 am (4 am is a late start), and the busiest time driving (making money) ends around 10 am. Because of that currently I am trying to develop a good strategy for Swing trading (1 to 2 weeks, or slightly longer staying into the trades.)

 
anthony2019

Now I found Smart Targets indicator and is working Great making few hundred pips per week once I realized it hits Targets 95% of the time, I gained Great Confidence

 
dcliff83

I am interested in finding smart Targets

 
luckyLiz

Hi Vess... Looks to me you are really into it.... I think I will have to look in it more. I like trading on 1H even if I am scalping.The lower time frame is to unpredictable to me. I didn't look in to a target trading but it worth the time. What indicators do you use if I may ask? I like to use FIB and the ABCD structure.

 
vesskrastev

@ anthony2019

I am very curious what the smart targets indicator is. How do I find it?

@ luckyLiz

Hi Liz!

I apologize for the late response. For planning my trades I use the "green" charts (ProAct charts). They are 2 types - the so called RF1010 charts (for continuation trades - attachment 1), and the 6 ACES charts - for reversal trades (attachment 2). They incoproprate Moving Averages (MA30, MA60, MA240, and T3), MACD, some oscillators, Heiken-Ashi charts, and the 6 ACES also uses Bollinger Bands. Momentum is indicated by modifying the color of the candles - it is done "behind the curtain", with a lot of indicators involved in calculatng the momentum, but we only see the final result. When I use the 6 ACES charts (they are quickly becoming my favorites), I only use the biggest one, the central one. I still use the RF1010 also - combining both gives you A LOT of information, they cover different aspects of the planning. A huge advantage of the green charts is that each one of the individual "windows" could be on different Time Frame - one could see at a glance up to 7 different Time Frames.

Above was the long answer to your question. The short one is simple - I only use what comes with the charts, nothing else. Of course, the charts provide the Fibonacci's Retracement and Extension tools (indicators, if you can call them so). The charts provide everything necessary for successful trading, BUT it is still the trader that has to make it happen.

Screenshot (1221).png Screenshot (1222).png
 
vesskrastev

Nice Article

It was not written for Forex traders, it was not even written for experienced traders. The explanations of what a stop loss is, and how to use it, and how to move to break even, and to use a trailing stop (all from the 3rd little trick) come a little bit too late for the Apiary traders. On the other hand tricks 1 and 2 did ring a bell for me.

There are many ideas about what a swing trade is - Shawn has a very good video about that. My idea about a swing trade is shown on attachment 1 - the swing trades, the way I understand them, are circled in black. This type of price moves the article calls "deliberately traded market," and suggests that this is the only type of market we should trade (trick #1). The non-deliberately traded market is too risky, according to the article - here I don't agree completely, trading a fast moving range simply requires a lot more attention and handling, although it is completely tradable. Of course, nothing beats the serenity of entering a trade in the beginning of a long swing (deliberately traded market), staying into it, and adding new trades on any pivot (retracement).

Another good suggestion, coming from the article, is to trade just the middle part of the price move (trick #2). After trying many, many times, to catch 100% of the move (or as close as 100% as possible), now I agree with trading just the middle part. More importantly, I can see and identify on the charts (the green charts), where this middle part starts, I can even calculate the approximate price when the reversal becomes a swing. Regarding the moment to close the swing trade, I can see it and recognize it at the moment it happens (providing that I am watching the computer screen at that moment), but so far I cannot calculate that in advance. No wonder, so far all my efforts were centered on catching the beginning of the swing move. Obviously, now I have to pay some attention to figuring out in advance the eventual end of the swing trade - unfortunately all the good things eventually end.

And I absolutely love the quote from Albert Einstein - see it on attachment 2.

P.S. The name of the article is "3 Little Trading Tricks". I got it in pdf and am having problems attaching it. The main ideas of the article are obvious to any Forex trader with slightly more experience. The example of deliberately traded market is shown in attachment 3.

Screenshot (1220).png Everything Should Be Made As Simple....jpg Deliberately Traded Market.png
 
Rookie

Thanks, Vess,
what is the yellow outlined indicator of the chart??

 
vesskrastev

Ed, I don't know the name of it. It simply goes horizontal from the last pivot - until a new one appears, then jumps to the new one.It is something which Jerry did, I am not sure that you can find it elsewhere. May be yes, may be no - I am not sure. It helps you to see better, but we use it fo different purpose - instead of clicking for applying the fibs on "congested" place (usually a lot of things are marked on and around the pivot) you can click anywhere on that luine - it is at exactly the same price as the last pivot.

 
Rookie

Thanks, Vess.

 
FXGold54

Ed;

It is a very "cool" indicator :)

Vess, this is an awesome thread, love reading it :)

Allen

 
vesskrastev

Allen, thank you for the complement.

Lessons, Learned From the News Triggered Huge Moves of the GBP Pairs

Yesterday, exactly at 5 pm EST (exactly at the moment the Alveo servers shut down for maintenance), in one 10 min candle the GBP pairs did as much as they normally do for a whole week. During that one 10 min candle GA soared up 349 pips, GN did 387 pip, GCHF did 229 pips, GU did 280 pips, GJ did 286, and EG plummeted 133 pips - these moves basically equalled what the pairs normally do for a whole week. Starting a trade just before the start of the Asian session is not a good idea (plus the server being down for these whole 10 min) probably means that nobody traded the burst of the news.

After a news event had made its huge move, it is a very bad idea to jump in late - price may at any moment turn back against you as violently as it was moving before in the move that captured your attention. Fading the fundie (the news triggered move), on the other hand, is a very good idea. The fundie was an unsustainable move, and all the unsustainable moves retrace to 0.382 Retracement fib - a good chunk of pips to capture.

I consider myself a reasonable and calculating person - that is, until I start trading. When I am into a trade I am like my 5 years old grandson William. His favorite expressions are: "But I want it!' and "Why not?!" - you get the picture about my mental state in that moment. I was patient at the beginning, but not after that. I hit over 2% gain, but could not close on time - still captured 1.3%. After that, trying to catch the following moves, I gradually diminished the win to 0.3%. Thank God, I finished with a win, but I lost 2%, and could have won A LOT more. That made me to finally get serious about figuring out EXACTLY how the BBs fade the fundies (fading is retracing the pair back to 0.382 retracement after the big push is over). I spent the whole day today into that, and I think I got it - coming into the next post/posts (I have to keep their length reasonable).

 
vesskrastev

How GA Faded the Election News

Attachment 1 shows how the events unfolded. For GA and GN this fundie was a "Head And Shoulder" fundie - meaning after the initial top and retracement down, price managed to create a new, slightly higher top, before starting the move down (see the white lines). "Head And Shoulders" is not the only way for price to fade a fundie - another way is to start retracing first enclosed into a symmetrical (more or less) triangle, before it starts the decisive move down - that was the case last night with GBPCHF.

Back to GA. I use a 5 min chart in order to show all the details - it does not allow for the whole vertical move of 349 pips during the first candle to be shown, but we are only interested in the Fading of the move. The orange line shows the first thrust Up (the Head was higher than the Left Shoulder by 11 pips only, so I measured the head - 11 pips does not make a difference in a 350 pips move).

After the Left Shoulder was formed Price retraced Down exactly to 0.214 fib (0.214 retracement happens always). Until I see that 0.214 retracement I simply wait - too many times I got burned for being too early. The change of direction of price from Up to Down (in our case) HAS to be done by a CAR (Close And Reverse - that is when the BODY of the next candle started exactly where the Body of the previous candle ended). The perfect choice is a CAR on 60 min chart - last night, because of the speed of the move, I used a CAR on 10 min chart. After the CAR AND the 0.214 Retracement were formed, Price will start an ABC move up. Again, a patient wait is necessary intil that ABC is completed - the end of the ABC MAY form the Head, or MAY end on the side line of the symmetrical triangle, there is no way to know in advance which case will materialize.

If you do a Fibonnaci's retracement of the ABC, you will find that the Right Neck (the end of the ABC Retracement) comes (ALWAYS) at the 0.786 retracement fib (not shown on the attachment - too many lines!). At that point the Rising Wedge is fixed - the diagonal Yellow lines on the top of the chart - the top line connects the Left Shoulder with the Head, and the bottom line connects the Left Armpit with the Right Neck. The price move from the Head to the Right Neck is marked by a blue line. After the Right Neck was formed, Price retraced Up to exactly 0.500 fib, and thus formed the Right Shoulder - circled in blue.

After the Right Shoulder was formed is the safe time to enter into the fading trade (starting from the Head is a lot riskier, plus often the Right Shoulder comes beck quite close to the Head). The important thing is to remember - you wait for the CAR and the 0.214 fib - they give you the Left Shoulder (the Left Shoulder IS at the end of the Wick, not at the end of the Body, but it is the CAR that signifies that the reverse in direction actually happened) and you wait for the Left Armpit, then you wait for the ABC to end (the ABC gives you the Head - providing that the Head is higher than the Left Shoulder).

After the Right Shoulder was formed, Price starts moving Down, and finally Breaks Out of the Rising Wedge. That is when the real move down (fading) starts. After a "fall" of 160 pips Price created the first significant pivot. That pivot finished the creation of the Falling Wedge - the green lines, the top one connecting the Head with the Right Shoulder, and the lower one, connecting the Left Armpit with the pivot.

The retracement fibs of the original Price move Up (orange) coincide perfectly with the Extension fibs of the move from the Head to the Right Neck (blue) - the confluences are circled in white. On the right side of the chart you can see (circled in yellow) the HSI levels of the previous big move down, coming very close to the conluences. There are MORE confluences (see attachment 2), but lets keep it simple. Why is it important to point at the confluences? - they DO NOT happen naturally, they are engineered. That is what the BBs wanted to do - and it is very important for me to know what they WANTED to do, then I can move in sync with them, even if the execution of their moves was noit perfect.

The fading move ended at the confluence of the 0.382 retracement fib of the original move Up (the orange one), and of the -1.270 Extension fib of the blue move (from the Head to the Right Neck) - that is where the bodies of the candles ended. The wicks went a little bit further, but they ended at the 1.618 fib of my BP trade (the bright blue lines).

At that point the fading was over and Price resumed its move Up, Breaking Out of the Falling Wedge (attachment 3). Again many confluences - fibs hit again and again (slightly before the B/O there was a headfake - a false B/O).

Timing is very important for me - not having an idea how long would it take, many times I started a trade way too early (and lost). Because of that I measured the time it took for the major moves to complete, and marked it on the chart. Although it may seem complicated, actually the whole thing is quite a simple procedure - and most importantly, it is completely quantified. Once you understood it, you can always repeat it.

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Rookie

Vess, I was looking for an indicator that resembles the one I asked about above.
Which I think is this T30 podcast http://1244.player.netbroadcasting.tv/player/flash/1244a?live=0&stream=T...

I ALSO came across this HSI pos cast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCajkZOCYXk
I am developing a similar trend-following strategy, but not use the fibs, but I can look up the S and R levels as many web sites do post them.
So here is my question, with this tool and of course, Scott's video doesn't show any losers. SO perhaps this is a collection of successful traders that were recorded. But this is a really cool tool.

So how come you, not a Billionaire??...))

 
vesskrastev

Ed, Support and Resistance levels ARE Fibonacci's ratios of previous price moves. The difference between using fibs (Fibonacci's tool) and S/R levels is simple. I can vey easily, and precisely, find the fibs of a previous move - just 2 or 3 clicks of the mouse, while searching for the S/R levels may be time consuming, and not that precise. This is the way I see it, I may not be 100% right.

Both videos, whose links you posted, deal with giving you the targets. They DON'T tell you HOW will price get to these targets - which way will price take and what barriers lay on the way to the targets, and they don't tell how long would it take. Also they don't tell you at what moment price will give up on the current move and will do a major reverse - there are always multiple targets, but how far will the price move reach, at which target will it give up, depends on how big the participation of the major players is. The stronger the participation, the further away target will be hit. In 2 words - the target tools don't give you the Structure of the market. Getting the proper reading of the Structure IS the first thing to do, and getting experienced in that takes the longest time. After you know the Structure, you search for the targets, not before.

Why I am not a billionaire - 3 reasons. 2 of them are psychological. First, I don't do what I preach, shame on me, I always try to find a shortcut, and the system works only when everything is applied. Second - I have a very strong tendency to overcomplcate - I want to know everything, or almost everything, and that either leads to paralises by analyses, or a quick impulse to scalp, at which I am terrible. True, with time the tendency to overcomplicate boils down to something simple and useful - the BP trade, the 6.854 fib, and couple of other things (there is a golden egg in handling the fading of fundies, I am all on it!), but meanwhile it serves very effectively as a brake. The third reason is the chronic and persistent lack of time, especially not having time to trade during the London Open, and total physical exostion from barely sleeping at all. With time I think I will overcome these problems and may be, just may be, I will become a millionaire? Wish me good luck in that.

Good trading to you!