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EUR/USD - MacroTradingIdea - WeShallSee....

 
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stefanwittke

EUR/USD - MacroTradingIdea - WeShallSee....

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Fri, 01/18/2019 - 5:49pm
 
Rookie

Stefan, that will not happen until the USD turns down, that will not happen until the US starts reporting their news again, with tens of thousands of works returning to work the news release may get caught up very quickly and the USD reverse for a period.

Keep in mind the DXY has basically been traded in a bounded channel of 95-97 and has failed at every attempt to stay above or below. It still makes for great short term trends.

 
oceanlover998

Rookie - do you think today's announcement that China will attempt to close the US Trade Deficit in coming years will sufficiently strengthen the USD to break out upwards?

 
stefanwittke

Hey Rookie thx for the headsUp...Maybe I´m too early with that approach right now and we see DXY @ 100area again- that is ok and will be even a better short (and better longs)because in my opinion , when taking a look @ $ and its Crosses , oil , gold/silver , 10yn , or other commodity futures the dollar is in real "trouble"....

UsDXY.png UsDXY-W1.png
 
Rookie

My opinion makes little difference to anyone.

I think that the government shutdown has had more than one purpose,
IE no news is good news. The USD went up!
Coupled with the "B" drama coincidently at the same time are we being played?

Stefan, I do think you are too early but it will happen.
The appropriate hedge is metals like silver and gold.

 
stefanwittke

Yes a 100% manipulated Environment...news triggers and "B" Drama , shutdowns , talking heads , all just theater for the herd....funnymentals...No coincidents

 
jamesh29

my opinion on this pair is long term short . I have position from 1,14 short sl25pips tp 1,13250 withgood possibility of going lower if 1,13 does not hold I can see 1.12 very realistic target before any retracement might take place.

 
boss_hogg

I'm looking for that weekly H&S to pay off soon. A Brexit deal would have pushed it down for sure. IMO, the GBP can and will crush the EUR if given the chance. That will send the $ soaring.

 
stefanwittke

Accumulation for a massive instituional order like this takes just a while - then hit the stops low to shake out weak long holders and take off for 1.35,not sure how deep the stophunt will have to move for the marketmaker to have enough retail losers(liquidity) - it could even fill that weekly gap @ 1.07500 although it is only about 43 pips.but it will be when everybody thinks they now have to sell the euro....
Remember what "talkinghead Trump" was told to say @ 2017 Low......???? Make america great great great again - strong dollar bla bla bla....and what happend - a move to 1.25 - when everybody was induced to buy $ .....same principle everytime....look @ the market content and go against the obvious because the obvious is always a TrapSetUp .....

 
Rookie

stefan, I don't much attention to forecasts, as a price action I KISS, follow the money "DXY" and keep my EU, GU, and XAU trade within a narrow range of the PA. I went to bed last night short 200 pips overslept and missed to 2:20 news, started trading about 3 am CST and am now at break-even waiting in the sun to rise in NY. If you have read any of my recent posts about the USD aka DXY you will understand why I think there is a large coming soon live retracement. The dollar is currently trading at its 97.00 resistance zone, it must break thur, which hasn't happened in the last several attempts or pullback which is the odds on favorite. My best guess is it will happen more or less around the 1st.

Sentiment on emerging markets goes from hated to loved
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/sentiment-on-emerging-markets-goes-from-hated-to-loved-20190212