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EUR/USD - Near a bottom?

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EUR/USD - Near a bottom?

Anyone else looking to go long here at the support levels?

EUR USD D 8.4.18.png159.45 KB
Sat, 08/04/2018 - 7:53pm
Neo Zen

After drilling down the charts I see a descending wedge that would imply a continuation lower. However, the shining light for the upside is that the support is at a psychological even 1.1500 level. I don't see any major news events that would have a major impact so it's really up to market sentiment. "IF" the support holds I don't see more potential to the upside than a short trade down after braking through support. I personally HOPE that it goes long. Yet time will tell. Good Luck!


Neo and Nick, Yep 1.1500 looks good for a bottom


So what you're really asking is? But what is your supporting data? Trends, previous high and low for a week a month a year? \Where is the white space? what is the big money doing?
the big money is the green line on the large speculator's bar. Also, a head and shoulder may complete the near future on this three-year chart.

I think my attached chart will tell the tail.

Is the USD dollar going to reverse because if the EUR/USD is to go long then the DXY has to go south, no?
Barchart Technical Opinion
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is an 88% Sell with a Strengthening short-term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.
The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.$DXY
Barchart Technical Opinion
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Buy with a Strongest short-term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

EURUSD D& chart 842018.JPG

On this monthly chart While there may be a slight pullback it will be short-lived if at all.
The white space is south, the CCI is just passing the zero line heading south, the trend is south.


Be careful with longterm longs.

There is a Head and Shoulder in the making on the weekly.


Good point, If 1.1500 doesn't hold it has a long way to fall


Yes ,hope it plays out... :)


It may hold for a bit even move up a bit to complete the H&S but unless the USD changes direction from gig time long to bigger time short, it is going south rapidly.

The COT report shows the big money has been and still is selling the EURUSD. On the COT long term, the signal just hit the Zero line and is moving sideways on it. Meaning the big money is in a wait and see what Trump and world Currency Central banks are going to do, Rest assured the sentiment will be reflected in the DXY short term when it happens.


I see it falling to 1.14724 and if that doesn't turn it then 1.12881 Of course if you are a short term trader there will be hundred pip swings on the long side. I think the longer term security position is short though.




Good luck to everyone this week!

So if support was found around 1529ish. Now we have had a bounce to 1625 today and hitting resistance. Is it safe to get in the water to sell this for a move down?


As always, these recommendations come with disclaimers. Right???

So, some of us funded traders are putting money on the line here. So, I think the market is still not ready for a major move. For one one thing European policy is still the same and looking to follow USD policy of increasing interest rate slightly this September.

If market sentiment continues to incorporate this forecast, then one can expect the price range of 300 pips to continue, and possibly trend slightly higher from here. currently 1.16050

Look for Continue Price Range into September. see chart below:

Euro Time vs Price Range 15 month period.PNG

Lesley, you make the nicest charts!

BTW the DXY, ST & LT opinion agree with you.

And the COT reports large speculators h sloped down since 1 Jan until 1 July when the signal line basically flattened on the zero line and shows no signs of leaving it.

Thx, enjoy the pipen day!


Pointing out, that the EURUSD weighted alpha is a red - 4.08 percent... ya think is selling short...
the var chart opinion is:"

Barchart Technical Opinion
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 100% Sell with a Strongest short-term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.
With a small change in the + and _ of the weighted alpha, this could well be said of the DXY.

And for a dumb shit like me, that earlier today took 5 trades on the eurusd going the wrong way thinking I was taking a USD base trade I have 200 negative pips to work out of, can I do it. not likely but I can use the PA to do it for me just as soon as the spread comes back to normalization with five trades going the other way from the trades in place, Ergo a hedge which for whatever reason I don't know I should;d have done earlier today and before that I should have just closed the loser mistake. So all I have accomplished with this set of trades today is compound the error. But I will fix!.


I caught the majority of the move on a sell but having to wait till tomorrow to try and get my last 24 hour trade.

Definitely would like to cash in those pips now.

What what it’s worth the pattern I got in on would ultimately point this move going below the previous low of 1.15078. So still a little to go. Careful of not trying for the bounce to early.


Grannie Lee

Sure wish I knew what you guys are talking about!

And no, I'm NOT sticking with knitting! Just have a LOT to learn!


Don't feel like the Lone Ranger Grannie there are more of us out hear who have a lot to learn!


Grannie and Peakers, made me think as soon as you figure out what you don't know you're on the road to learning...
I keep a scratch pad on my desk and send myself email notes on what I don't know so I can go back when time permits and research it. You don't want to know how many boxes there are in my outlook file. There is always so much to learn it is easy to become overwhelmed. Then I find the more I learn the more three is to learn, the subfolders never cease to expand. I am just loving it!

i got couple sells at 1483. whoop whoop!

now what...

anyway. im got stopped out made 70 pips on two sells. too bad I didnt bet the farm. but $5 positive and call it a day.


I got a few pips as well for the new low breaking the 1.1500 level, the green pips fixed my 250 negative pits and left me 200 pips positive, no complaints from this side of the peanut gallery.!/eurusd-hits-one-year-lows-falls-below-11500-20180810

perfect storm.xlsx 31.41 KB

GBP news coming up next. So the market jitters are pushing price down, Made 125 pips in 8 minutes.

See economic calendar.

08:302h 27m GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)PRELIMINAR Expecting 0.4% much better than previous of 0.2%


It's much more simple than that.

This is how Shawn analyses the lower TF's ...

Just look at the Daily consolidation range and where we are right now. Day after day.

Last week we were in the mid of the consolidation. Then we went down to the bottom edge of that consolidation.

Today we broke that consolidation area, for the first time in 1-2 month, it's a different game now from today onwards.

Screen Shot 2018-08-10 at 2.17.22 PM.png

Don't take it from me ... take it from the man ...

Trade Room from 27th of July 2018 – Daily TF Analysis

Starting at 8th minute:


Rob, look at my spreadsheet just above.


Ed, not bad for a day trading ;-)

.... but too many mixed up pairs for me ... JUST JOKING ;-))

Well done! It all looks great!


Rob a just for your edition.

perfect storm (4).xlsx 18.67 KB

Got online for a for a short time and caught a break down which so far has brought in 63.3 pips. Price is dropping for now.

So that spreadsheet you attached. Whats the story with trades 729 and 730? That looks like your 250 pip drawn down you are referring to. I would be sobbing like a baby. Looks like a great recovery though after catching yesterdays down move.

And it is still going down. When is the bounce?


Going long on the EUR? With what is unfolding in Turkey?

@aaronJ i read up on the Turkey news. Seems pundits feel eur may go even lower from here, down to the 200 MA with the usd, swiss franc and yen becoming safe havens. I dont think i'll go long long. Lol. Long for me is like 5 mins at this point anyway.

But for some reason I always place my shorts right when there is a long extended rally, so I need to widen my stops i guess.


OK good.

Mike Smith

Using manual MTF Fibonacci on 1 chart to identify support/resistance.

I take one chart, zoom out and draw fibonacci retracement on each time frame from M1, W1, D1, H1, M1, etc. Then I observe on low timeframe if 61.8, 38.2 coincide. As you can see I marked red arrows where it happened. You can use it to identify potential support and resistance.

Additionally, I believe expansions and consolidations on the current time frame are actually just representations of higher time frame retracements.

2018-08-11 15_31_11-2100326428_ JAFX-Demo3 - Demo Account - [EURUSD,M5].png

Note both pairs are operating converse tandem to each other. Both are almost +5 weighted alpha scores. Bother are approaching stall points or reversal points of being oversold or overbought. This all plugs into both the Circadian and cyclical nature of things,

So whats the bottom line of When?. The FOMC minutes are coming up and Jackson Hole. Looks like good timing for a cross.
In the meantime, while the DXY is flirting with a retracement and EURUSD is flirting with a reversal we can expect the waters to get a bit muddy, increased spikes and shortened trend movements.

Ok, so that was three pips worth.

DXY Am 8-11.JPG

Had to split the images into two


is it OK to vent after a bad beat? not that I play this like poker but I felt my analysis was pretty good. I had a 0.14 position in EURUSD playing the consolidation between 1405-1407 for a turn downward short around 10am. My stops where way out at 1416-1417. Since price had broken the upward trend at 8:30am 8/14 It looked I was at the near top of a retracement and a turn down. and of course what happens...price jumps up straight to my stops like a magnet to 1418 in about 5 seconds at 10:30am and I had no time to pull 14 trades SLs higher in time. and then proceeds to run all night long down for 75 pips. what a bummer. Not that I would have pickup up all 75 pips down, I think I had my TPs at 15.

anyway lesson learned I think. For anyone doing more mid to long term plays how far out are your stops, and are you only doing .01 positions at a time? how big are your overnight positions?

I will recoup and fight again.


aebi, have at it! when I got up woke last night I was down over 880 pips, finished plus 250 pips this am. If I leave a trade open for nap time or going away it is always on the trend side never against the trend, easier to fox.

@RNM so you have no stops placed on your trade? I have wanted to do that a few times, and I did it when I was in the Silver section. but now with performance numbers on the line to get to G3, I am a little hesitant.

I am looking for a bigger pair of brass balls on Amazon at the moment. lol.

btw, what is the max position size in Gold3?


I have and always use an SL, you may not see the lines. In G3 my usual position is.02Q so I have room to navigate when needed and as many as 50 positions (the max). I am sometimes all in on this account.

In my other account (20K), my max is .1R but usually a .05R.
I might have one hundred positions on but maybe only 10 pips each and spread over 5 or six Paris.
And as many as 50 trades but up to 400+ positions. I have never had more than 150 positions open at one time, yet.

Mostly however my SL'a are for emergency stops if something gets away. As I trade in groups of 5 usually my risk aversion is about 10 pips max and I will close the entire group, not just one trade at a time. I close a trade when I see that the momentum or volume is gone no matter the candle color etc.

Its a bit different but enables me to maximize momentum breakouts.


Nearing a reversal, if one looks at the DXY week chart the pa went south from the CCI +200 line on May 14th to the 90-100 area on and bottoming out on July 16-25rd. Now headed back to the 200 line and should arrive but the 19th for DOMC and languish a week before breaking out again.

The EUR USD is basically the exact inverse, like a shock template.

ok 8/15 3:30am to 4:30am . is this a Gantley 222 pattern, or close to it? I am in short at 1327.

ok 8/15 3:30am to 4:30am . is this a Gantley 222 pattern, or close to it? I am in short at 1327.

ok 8/15 3:30am to 4:30am . is this a Gantley 222 pattern, or close to it? I am in short at 1327.

i guess it was. made 50 pips on total position move down to 1322.

Mike Smith

Gartley's are good patterns. Good luck.


And... down we go.


I tend to agree with RNM comments above...reversal is pending. The EUR/USD is at 10-13 month low and time to buy and be patient for a short to long run.


I see some resistance at 1.13535. I it breaks through, then there will be a lot of momentum to the upside. But it can also reverse. I think not as strong as if it breaks out to the upside. Keeo a close eye on it.

Mike Smith

EURUSD down?

I found an indicator that's like looking under the market itself. Wow, in a way it's better than seeing the future. I'll be testing this, but I won't be sharing. I'll post some directional runs if it keeps turning out good.

Mike Smith

Hallelujah. At 1.141 I knew it was going up. Still headed up. This method perfectly filters those pesky retracements.


You're a good learner, just don't do it all over the place and annoy ppl.

When I said similar you are aiming for, it was only meant and accurate for a very specific forum topic .. not for all, all over the forum.

Just remember that. Stop playing, start trading. Put your ego aside, first lesson for trading success.


The summer doldrums are likely to stifle any meaningful trends, rallies or breakouts with "legs" until September, historically speaking. This is not an opinion, is a fact.

Happy Trading Guys.

Mike Smith

Wow what a run last night. Still seems going up. I will mark when my algo starts to change down.


It could go up to all the way to 1.7-1.8 you never know

Mike Smith

Good guess but my moves are intraday. I will know actually. And the risk is low.


@Library Cash

yes, agree, the algo changing down is a insightful indicator, pls let us know when this happens ;-)

Mike Smith


Of course for someone such as you that gets the direction wrong all the time you would be so pessimistic to interpret my thread as I said is going down now. Which it does not.

It said I'd mark when it starts to show that. Better to have these conversations in a forum that has a live chat room, which there isn't.



I'm sorry, but sometimes I'm not sure whether you are serious or have different intend.

All talks aside, I think it would be a great idea if you start your own topic and share your trading methodology, as much, or as deep, as you are willing to share and want to discuss.

That would clear up what your are really doing and focused on. For me at least. It would give it more structure.


To be honest Mike, you've been quite busy on other peoples specific methodology pages, mostly to defend yours.

What's wrong with the approach that you open your own one, and anyone sharing your interests and want to improve on this, discuss only the specifics of that, on there, as objective as possible and on topic?

It's a respect thing on a public forum and it gives it all good structure without needing a moderator


Yesterday you go into RNM's specific methodology forum, and say, that's not what I do. I don't listen to other traders ... this is what I do!
Ed is gobsmacked, and I can understand why.

How is that supportive? That's not even fair!

Why can't you see that?


er, Rob what is "gobsmacked"?


Ed, the feeling when being a little bit baffled ...


uhm... ok


That's really good, I think I have much stronger feelings than others about it ;-)

Let's put it this way ... a response like: Are you emotionally challenged?
That's being baffled, or gobsmacked ;-)

I think I'm reading way too much into all of this. I start to see that

The other approach would be more supportive, all I'm saying ;-)

Back to the EUR/USD, Euro open soon


thx Rob appreciate the feedback.


yes, stay on topic and support everyone on their respective, individual methodology page ...

discuss other larger, or broader topics on the daily threads, which come and go ...

That's my philosophy about it.


I excpect a huge rally at the end of summer.Goog luck for everyone.


That H&S was a disappointment...downmove over for now?

Month not over yet but looks bullish at the moment...

EURUSDMonthly.png EURUSDWeekly.png

@mattias9, looks like a good finish coming up for that head and shoulders!
see Alan's EURUSD chart on"trading doesn't have to be difficult" or my summation on"Trading DXY".
thx for sharing.


I will do that ,thanks! :)


The EUR/USD pair hit the bottom of 1.13 like two weeks ago,now reversing back towards first resistance level of 1.175, we can see that using weekly and daily charts.Now the pair is trading near 1.17.From there we will watch if the pair can go any further or reverses back toward 1.14 - 1.13 area again.


Good call fidelitygroup. . .

Certainly may carry enough momentum to break through 1.17000 level, at least the market is set up to reach that price Tuesday the 28th. But, who knows it may stay under the Pivot high of today and test the 1.16500 level. Both scenarios have a high probability, since price generally retraces about 50% after reaching a new pivot high.


Well, Triguy and fidelity. you may be correct in that.
At opinion the EURUSD has finally med it out of sell area and most recently on hold to a low buy signal of 8%.
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is an 8% Buy with an Average short-term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Longer term, the trend strength is Weak.
The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

Now the question, with some weighty USD news on the horizon can the EURO hold on??


Here is the mirror price pattern

The chart says just what RNM is describing!

Capture Mirror Pattern.PNG

Leslie, I think I see an inverse head and shoulders there...


That may be misleading, since the drop was due to Trump's tariff talks, and the media played that up. We'll have to see how Wednesdays numbers turn out to verify sideways market or the break-out above 1.17750 price point.
Actually, I tend to think the price will run bearish to test the 1.15500 level again.


Then Bearish it is! after the USD news...:)


USD (DXY) intraday pullback from 94.3 will be tested at 94.53.

IF it fails at this level, then USD selling pressure will point to 94.14 area and allowing EU to rise.

But if USD breaks again above 94.53 then pullback USD will reach 94.73 area, above 94.53 (internal trading octave H1) extension of USD up towards 94.92 will open, then the EU will enter the correction trend, meaning will confirm up weakness and may begin down trending. (Bearish)

IMHO more about strength/weakness of USD than EUR for now.


USD (DXY) intraday pullback from 94.3 will be tested at 94.53.

IF it fails at this level, then USD selling pressure will point to 94.14 area and allowing EU to rise.

But if USD breaks again above 94.53 then pullback USD will reach 94.73 area, above 94.53 (internal trading octave H1) extension of USD up towards 94.92 will open, then the EU will enter the correction trend, meaning will confirm up weakness and may begin down trending. (Bearish)

IMHO more about strength/weakness of USD than EUR for now.


Strong dollar still going strong into the fall. EUR & GBP going down but the US dollar going strong


I would stay away for now from EU . wait for it to show direction


US Dollar news coming out today.

If the mirror pattern continues to hold as price continues toward resistance just one day away, then expect a drop as price may test the S/R level near 1.17650 or so.

The 3 charts below show the changes each day this week. Aug. 25th, Aug. 26th and Aug. 27th closing price snap shots.

Capture EurUsd H4 mirror pattern.PNG Capture Mirror Pattern.PNG Capture Euro mirror pattern Aug. 27.PNG

I really don't look forward to any news at this point. Really just try to stay away. No trading but I do like to watch to see if I can pick up any patterns to prepare me for one day I might just jump in.
I've tried to manage these moves but always a risky deal.



Hey mate, so far so good.... perfect analysis! How do you do it??? Maybe one day I will see what you see, one can only hope!!!!


EURUSD so much fun this morning! great for 2-5 pip wobbles.
The DXY is having a shootout and the euro is reflecting it!


All very interesting


Thanks Froggy,

I look for all types of patterns, they certainly provide another perspective on PA. Anyway, as the US labor rates look good, that keeps putting bullish pressure on the DX. And, so as the European economy heats up as well, then we get these range bound markets, and when price jumps out to form new pivot H/L then the mirror formation is created. Either, way I see price entry targets and exit targets.

Again, up over 690 pips today @ 3.41% profits.

Capture EurUsd Mirror pattern Sep5.PNG Capture 2.2024.PNG

Great mirror stuff, da pips ain't too shabby either, thx.


triguylm1, I thought I had something to smile about with my pips, you rock. I quit while I was ahead, I didn't want anything to ruin my stats while I'm waiting for the system to switch me to Gold 1.


Courtney, you're a blessing, almost 20% and you had the good sense to stop trading, you are going are celebrated by all of us that do not have that self-control!

Catching my drift? You are wonderful.

Leslie is a really, really a good trader with a lot of experience but it took Apiary to refine him. You're over 50% of the way!


Rookie, you put a really, really big smile on my face!!!


Its called a SEG, Sh_t Eaten Grin!

Grannie Lee

Good job, Courtney! Hang in there, Gold can't be far away!



Next stop ….. 1.1300 becoming a real possibility following NFP !?


Thanks Courtney, and congratulations on moving into Gold 1 yesterday.

I tend to believe keeping my lot size small helps me hold a position in the market long enough to earn the bigger reward. I have less stress with keeping my leverage under 0.54 lot total position size, since, I'm doing this because I have no access to WiFi while I'm at work. (so do 0.03 lots x 18 positions) Also, that moves up to 1.08 lot size when I'm scaling in on winning positions.

@ Froggy, Looking at the possibility! I just have to say . . "Who knows" The European economy is strong as well, the Euro index is holding above 93.00 support as chart below shows. So, again I tend to think we should continue to see this price range continue.

Also, more bearish "Net Speculative Positions" again this week. So, we may see another test to the 1.1300 price if market runs bearish though the 1.1535 support.

I had another 600 pip plus day again today, just from setting up trades during the Tokyo session. I had to use a bit of my dollar averaging system to get this much profit today.

Capture Euro Index.PNG


No doubt, you got it!

These days I just try to end the day green......


I trade mostly EURUSD, occasionally GBPUSD. the last week was a real rollercoaster on the EURUSD but there were no comments on this blog. I am v impressed by the pips i see some of you guys (and girls) post here. Any comments on where from here on the EURUSD?


Yep, in the wake of mid-terms it’ll be interesting where EURUSD goes. Both America and Europe have their strengths and problems but as I understand the Fed is expected to gradually raise interest rates the received wisdom appears to be the Euro will fall further. I’ve been doing this for less than a year so I’m fascinated to learn how this all develops. An Italian trader friend has said Italy is going to cause problems for the Euro by defaulting on its debts. Let’s hold tight and watch! Safe trading everyone!


I could see a short-term uptick, but it has tested the current level a couple of times before and if you look at the day chart, there is nothing indicating a reversal. It looks like when it breaks that support level, its going south.


@benelibra I'm on your side, attached is my chart for the week.

EURUSD Week 11-11.JPG

>>last week was a real rollercoaster on the EURUSD but there were no comments on this blog

That's the general rule I think, when people are killing it they post it everywhere, when they are doing their a$$ its all silence!

Guess it depends on the time of your outlook, I think likely down too in the long run.
Looking at the chart though that level at 1.1300 seems so obvious, I think there could be a big battle for control there.

To me that chart looks ripe to have the lows around 1.13 probed causing bears to enter short, the longs who thought this double bottom was a reversal to puke, only to move up trapping all the shorts to around 1.15s which will surely shake out all the weak hands who will certainly throw in the towel at that high, only to see the market then put in an aggressive move down to finally break 1.13s, fueled by the crowd who would have be going long on the move up from 1.13s and those longs entering with buy stops at the 1.15s as they all stop out on the way down, along with those who where long and did not exit earlier or take a break-even or small profit (note fxfactory shows avg entry of its longs at 1.1455)

Monday though being a holiday in US, I am not so sure how much weight can be placed on a breakout or failure given the potential for lack of normal trading volumes by the close.


@TH while on the 1H and 1D there is this ebb and flow, I trade it every day but overall it's going down...
to do differently EUR would have to develop a mind of its own or the USD has a reversal which for the short and most likely foreseeable future isn't going to happen.

Think on this is Beatrix fully priced in with the Italian meltdown and GBP leaving?

USD is at a weighted 2.25% interest while EURO is at 0.00%... there is absolutely nothing in the favor of the EURO.


Rookie, yeah I trade it as well every day, short term so I just go with the flow of the moment, either long or short and don't care whats it trend is on D1+ or where its going in long term (for my trading)

I guess its just the way I look at markets.

Markets are made up out of humans (or algos controlled by humans) making trading decisions (and price is a side effect of those), so I look at a market and think "where are traders going to be trapped" and "where are big traders going to initiate positions" etc.

If you have deeeepp pockets, what a great trade that would make, adsorb all the short sell-stops at 1.13 (if no big traders are shorting there, then selling will quickly dry up, when sellers are cut off, market moves up), then again at 1.15s you liquidate your longs (sell limits which will be filled by the buy stop orders of breakout traders and stop loss orders of the trapped shorts puking on the way up) then again buyers are cut off and down it goes for real now (as big traders have all initiated their shorts and weak hands have been pushed out)

So that's why even I agree 100% with what you say, I look at that chart and that's what I think. Big traders need somewhere to get in, and they need liquidity to do it (i.e. trapped traders), hence my view that this market will potentially move in that kind of fashion (even though it is contrary to overall DX strength etc in the long term)

On the other hand all big shorts may have already initiated and there will be so much selling as it goes through 1.13 it will slice through like a knife and never look back.

In Plungers thread a couple of weeks back on the EU going up I commented that I thought it would move up little then probe 1.13 before a move up, which actually played out much to my utter amazement, so this (what I described above) may have actually already sort of taken place in the move up from 1st to the 7th.

Not sure how applicable that kind of think is to very long term though (as opposed to the short term intraday order flows), I would never actually trade this of course, its just a feeling, now way I would gamble on something like that, given how often I am wrong!


Big Shots, Big money use the COTT Report, and it is updated every Friday in your email once subscribed, or the FX chart can be utilized at

The Wisdom of the Crowds. Is 100% generated by the news. we measure that wisdom and call it sentiment. That sentiment is measured but indicators and websites such as Barchart and, Metaf, Finez, Bloomberg and so fourth report the technical indicators in percentages and various types of graphs. This is why I call then technical-sentiment indicators.

Sure the long stuff is dialed in by the big money the people that run the world. I don't have enough money the play in that league, nor do we have the risk available to use in Alveo. This week I will test the weekly charts on six pairs with the greatest strength and weakness spreads and correlated or not with their historical DXY status quo. These spreads are also evident on the charts I have posted today. I'll report on them next Friday...:))

TW you are a contrarian and I really appreciate your comments especially when challenged.
The wisdom of the crowds is forex trend following.
Ergo, sentiment + moment = Trend.


I find the COTT stuff very interesting, I have never understood how people use it to trade, though I know they do. I guess maybe people use it like you do, for sentiment.

The reason I don't understand how its used is the COTT shows positions _already_ initiated, but markets only move on _new_ order flow. i.e the market would not move because they are already short, only if enough new shorts initiate, or if they defended their position (i.e. the market would move up, and big money would add to their shorts until weak hands buying are absorbed, which in a way support my above hypothesis)

Maybe you are right, I am a contrarian, I would not have said so, but the first thing I thought when seeing the 100% short COTT is "ok, if the big money is already short, then their next move will be to cover, when is a likely place for there to be lots of weak hands going short to provide the liquidity for that", i.e a pop to the upside, and again come up with a break below 1.13 then a move up (short term)

But note I never said I was bullish, if I had to pick a long-term direction I am 100% with the short side, but that is totally irrelevant. As traders what matters is _how_ is it going to do that, and where could one get in, hence my view for short pop up (and that is short in the big picture, a few days of bullish movement in a monthly downtrend)

Not sure about the wisdom of the crowds, though I guess you mean the wisdom _should_ be following the trend (love your definition of trend), crowds as in retail traders I think tend to want to pick tops and bottoms and actually end up on the opposite side of trends most of the time, though I think the crowds here are more clued up!, but even so we see posts about "bottoms" and "hoping" for a turn around.

Look at even how this thread started, "near a bottom, 1.15 is a bottom, reversal" etc, and look what happened, small bounce and if that was a 3-bar reversal on Aug 3/6/7th (not sure as I dont trade it) longs initiating and immediately get trapped, and market slams down, exits of the longs hoping for a reversal fueling the big drop the 10th. Hope the OP and others manged to get out with profit if they did get long.

Rookie, I like your view on the market and trading style, I really must find time to study your DXY thread, your approach to markets seems quite unique, to me at any rate.

*[edit] note above I said "longs initiating" on the 3br, I didn't mean big traders, the big traders may have been 100% short for example as now, but the weak hands initiating, hoping for a reversal, and big traders using that to add to or defend their shorts, and I know it is right into a support zone, but whilst that will stop traders here buying, the general crowds are too interested in catching the bottom and looking like a hero to their buddies to let that prevent them going long.


Any case, just sitting watching 1.13 break with a vengeance in a 25 pip move, now I guess we wait and see if we have a break-out / pullback or a break-out failure!

Guess I should have been focused shorting instead of talking smack on the forums! :)


@TH, I made 200 pips on the short, now its sideways and doing a little jig. So I have a few long and a few short waiting on a direction. I know the overall direction as I said previously but we are closing the Asin and going into Euro trading then it will move again. Usually, it reverses a bit then proceeds to US change over.

That said the momentum has hit the CCI zero line and looks like a bounce back to the Bearish is coming shortly?

Also, the EU and GU are coming to a London open squeeze breakout! Because the market trend is Bearish the odds have it he breakout will be bearish, have a hook and go. and no news to hang over our heads.


Nice Rookie, well done!

I know what you mean with the reversal at Frankfurt or London opens, I quite often look for "counter-trend" opportunities at those market opens, or again on the hour into London session , though I prefer to go with the flow, I normally do my a$$ otherwise!

I think today might be a funny one, like you said no news, break of a big level and a holiday in US, it might simply drift around until tomorrow (Tuesday).


Well the DXY broke bullish and EU & GU went bearish sort of, more like waffling


TH thanks for reminding me of the Holliday, I forgot.

Well the DXY broke bullish and EU & GU went bearish sort of, more like waffling

2:11 AM CST I'm tired so and don't like the little candles so I closed out (killing 5 open trades for a -55 pips)

Be back for Jeff's CATT class.

London Open 211AM CST I'm Closed out.JPG

Great trading! Tough trying to trade the UK open in your timezone, I live in South Africa so whilst I have to somehow balance it with my day job its at least a decent hour here! :)

I am still flat for the day and can only assume the market is moving nicely as my Alveo won't connect! :)


I didn't experience any issues with Alveo, maybe it was just after I shut down.

I suspect DXY will go sideways now and then break back bullish after a few hours.
Tiny candles, however, the volume is really down, if your trading watches out for spiles.


Eur/usd trading lowest in the last year, and during US banks holiday. Not sure how to trade this type of market, when I started trading, this pair was already consolidating on the D1 chart. The back and forth PA between 1.18 and 1.15 made certain movements predictable. any suggestions about the near future of this market?


@chaseac2018 Well, I think the consensus seems to be down, but there is a debate as to how it will do it!

I reckon right now we can see either a sustained move down with 1.13 being broken, there is still the potential for a bear trap as I suggested, and growing likelihood of a rounded retest of 1.13s before moving down.

Today though being US holiday has thrown a spanner in the works, whereas we would normally see resolution of the above as the US came in, today might simply drift, spiky and difficult as Rookie suggests.

As to how to trade this type of market, I guess the answer is for me it depends on your trading style/strategy.

If the market is not suitable for your style e.g if you trade long term trending then during that consolidation period you mention, you don't trade this market. To me its not about finding a way to trade every type of market or move, but mastering what you do and trading it well.

If you trade short term like M1 as your profile suggests, then where the market is maybe going in a day or so is surely not relevant at all? You would just focus on the short term flows with the knowledge that the main trend is down.

I found getting to wrapped up in when it might go ended up interfering with my trading, as I let the bias cloud my edge.

Personally I am going to try watch the market in the US open if I can sneak time from my day job, but unless it seems to show tendency to a clean range or a slow wavy trend (which happens on holidays sometimes) I will just stand aside for the holiday day.


Traders, when in doubt look to the power,

Barchart Technical Opinion, $DXY, STRONG BUY
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 100% Buy and ranks in the Top 1% of all short-term signal directions.
Longer term, the trend strength is Maximum. Long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.
The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.
and with a holy crap, +5.82% weighted alpha. I am not overly concerned about a reversal as I think it would be short-lived but tradeable.

Once again TH, the DXY is currently flat after a slow relatively flat London market. we have a Bollinger Band squeeze play about to unfold for the NYOpen.

I agree for 1M scalpers it makes little difference.
I have some long-term tests rolling in my sim accounts both are now losing some ground. So when the break out occurs I will be watching closely. If the DXY goes south iI will be closing my positions at about 500 plus 500 pips each sim account. My dilemma is closing the day trade account is not an issue as I placed its trades last night about 10 PM CST, but closing my intraday trade account would violate my trading rules for that account by taking my 500 pips and running.

At any rate I will start my Laid back scalping once the break out from the squeeze starts to occur.


I am short in my private account since 1.1418 and the 5 min chart is mildly up, without looking the bands are getting tight. Going to close my position in my private account at 1.1285. Not taking any longs on this one right now, will look for another pullback to short. Been scalping short in the NY session with some sucess.


wait till the MACD H ticks up (either on Monday or Tuesday) and then go long


@huntb44 agreed with good timing, I have a few shorts on and there isn't enough volume left to get a 2 pip swing.

@james an H tick is?


I am done, I scalped 15 pips rookie. Are you in the USA? I ask because it is a Bank holiday here today and liquidity has dried up. Market moves from here on out today are not predictable enough for me. James looking longer term the whole world is selling the eur/usd. I am bearish for now but I see some better support at 1.1205-1.1210. Look at the strength of the dollar, that trumps going long on the MACD but hey that is just an opinion and I could be wrong and you could be correct. Not trying to be disagreeable, just logical.


I passed on trading this afternoon (well, US morning), there is a slow up channel but not enough motion and entries would be too risky for my strategy.

@james Curious, why long? I assume you mean the MACD Histogram indicator? Aren't you concerned that while wait for all that alignment (you say M5/30/H4 on your profile so I assume you trade some kind of alignment?) to be long the market will be back at 1.13s and ripe for a move down again (i.e. you will be entering long right into a prime location for shorts to be initiating and longs to get trapped) ?

Not criticizing your strategy, just curious why you feel that long is the best option here as opposed to waiting for a pullback then entering when your indicators turn over again in the direction of the primary trend (so hopefully entering with the next leg down if a bit later than those who traded to initial pullback) ?


@huntb44, I'm in IA does that count? So I finished up my Ron account to today at +130 pips and +.58% equity. Yes, the volume is gone, I had made my daily dumb for trade mistake allowing a set of positions to run against me on GU, cost me 40X4, the time you state was negative and I agree I made it all back and then did my 10 AM CST close.

For all I know I am beginning to sound like a broken record, the DXY tells all most of the time.
At 10 pm CST, I started trading.
Sim1, placed my Long Term week test trades, still open and up about 600 pips at .99% equity
Sim2, placed D1 trades closed this am after 100 pip slippage from USD slow bear slide made 463 pips and .48% equity
after placing those trades by 10:30 pm CST
I go to my Euro 5M scalping account close at 375.5 Pips and +2.16% Equity I use different leverage in this account. Had it open until 2 am and closed.
Next, its Catt class after Jeff closed up shop had my breakfast and was ready to trade but held back until 8:30 am or so. This is my Ron account I mentioned above. Strictly 1%R and .01Q...LOL

My long-term trader is all market orders, based on my Sunday analysis of the DXY. as posted in the trading USD thread.
My 5M scalping is usually just EU and GU, sometimes I toss in a little XAU.

Not bragging, I still have to overcome allowing a loser to run and utilize proper sizing. But I am improving... I think


Rookie, I think being a broken record is good, it means you are consistent in what you do and think!!


Thanks TH


Rookie I love Iowa, I'm downstate Illinois farm country. I like Iowa's rolling hills.


Ha, maybe we should swap...LOL my fav is the Adirondack Mountains of PA and NY, especially along the Delaware River.

Just thought maybe we can get a tri-state traders club together.


Still weekly downtrend - so I am primarily looking for shorter term down signals.


Yup DXY is now a 100% Buy with a 5.85 weighted Alpha, and has passed its earlier high at 97.55, my target was (& but I'm not complaining from 97.4 to 98.7 is my target zone, no clue if it will break thur that resistance level. But if so my next R2 is at 100.62 makes me ... dream about where the EUR will be. Meanwhile back at the ranch, the Long Term trades I put on last night are up 600+ PIPs!

Scary I have never had a long-term group do this well. Sure challenges my fear of loss instinct.


My 1.1205-10 for support worked out price later dropped to 1.1214 and started heading North.


Just wanted to throw in my 2 cents worth for anyone to comment on the following charts.

euro monthly.PNG euro weekly.PNG euro daily.PNG

thought 1.1185 would be the 9-month low calculated with fibonacci tools...but, for now, it appears 1.1215 is the bottom...but not yet confirmed w/ channel-line break...


mick, they look good to go, trade it!


hehe, I was just looking at the EU chart and thinking about this thread , mostly how hopelessly wrong my initial post was (though I must have been smoking my socks that day, as the press down to the LHPB at 1218s given 1300s had been tested before should have been obvious)

PA the last couple of days has been really interesting actually, in a way did what I expected. After going down Monday, imagine how many people must have gotten home after NY close, seen that bar and thought the usual "confirmed breakout " "strong bear bar" etc etc and steamed in short. Immediate retrace and all those shorts start sweating.

There must now be tons off late shorts in the market, plus we know all those traders who entered on the breakout of 1.13 are now break even for a "free trade". Don't know who watched market as it returned to 1.13 for the first time, on tick/range charts the exit order flow of those shorts was really obvious as it spiked though 1.13, all those shorts covering at BE. As its pressed higher there have been a number of spikes up, for sure all those late shorts (read "hopers") giving up and throwing in the towel.

Actually pissed cos I mostly sat there like a headless chicken, I should have made a lot more money this week.

I still think down in long run, and now many of the weak hands have probably been shaken out, market may start to drop, no idea really though.

@mickmckay I don't trade H&S, so I have never done the stats for the pattern on EU (I know "high probabilty" but its different for each market and time frame and not always positive, e.g. DAX), direction seems good though, down! Not sure where you put stops, I think above the right should is tradition, the gives a large stop, if you enter on a break below the recent low at 1215s the market would need to drop to nears its recent all time lows to get > 1R

Interestingly though not too far from 1R is an untested gap open at 1.0717, might be a bit of a magnet if price drops down, so not a bad chance maybe (and yes I know there are no gaps in FX, just anomalies on retail charts, but I feel price gravitates to "close" them none the less)


@TH, Do you think the USD is going to fall back, pull way back, crash way low the bears take all, any time soon?


Honestly Rookie, I have no clue! The uptrend in DXY may be slowing, so potentially more of a consolidation type of pullback.
Don't think there will be a major drop in USD soon, certainly hope not as I get paid in dollars! I think you are probably much better than me at reading the DXY though!


@TH, my question was mostly rhetorical. There may be a slight pullback as it is at the 97.00 resistance zone again, that would also satisfy the EURO H&S. So I'm thinking is no DXY break thru then we have a hook and go.


Oh ok, I actually thought it (EU) would need to drop now to satisfy the H&S, didnt know there needed to be another rally.

Strong rally now though on EU, drop on DXY. Kinda pissing me off as I am heavy short now!

Don't see this everyday, heavy bidders here and not pulling either, someone does not want this market to come back down. Must be G. Soros on the other side of my shorts ;) )

And yes, I did front run it (at 305s against a 250 lot earler) and yes, I did screw it up!

heavy bid volume.png

!TH, I think this 50pips was the hook but we aren't going to see the go until late today is at all. Should be a big gap this weekend and the go on Sunday.

If it makes you feel any better I called this yesterday in the post and still get beaten up... by not trading what I see. I think I have a short bias that overrides common sense...)(