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EUR/USD Retracement

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EUR/USD Retracement

So... Since the pair broke the trendline, it's been an almost straight bearish run on the daily chart until a little over a week ago, when it started to retrace.  I'm wondering if the low volatility last night could be because the daily retracement is coming to an end?  Anyone think that it's going to resume its previous course soon?

DailyEUR-USD.jpg87.26 KB
Mon, 06/11/2018 - 10:28am

Market consolidation before the Fed Meeting June 12 and 13

Check out what happened to gold after the Fed meeting on Dec 12 and 13 of 2017. This one sent gold up 1,200 + pips by Feb. 8th and 9th.

Shailesh Saxena

As triguylm1 said above, the low volatility is probably due to upcoming Fed Meeting. Looking at the structure, the price may go up still and bounce from EMA50 on your chart. That may mark the end of this up move and downtrend may resume from there.


Also price has not yet retraced to 38.2 fib. It is reacting to the resistance zone (1.7756 - 1.7777). I believe if daily close above 1.7777 then it will test the next resistance zone (1.1940 - 1.1995) which is also 50% fib area.


I think that it is going to go sideways for now and bounce between 1.17536 and 1.18276. The ATR (presently at 89.7 pips/day) is below average (135 pips/day) suggesting indecision in the market.


I don't make direct trading decisions based on Elliott Wave Theory, but for the sake of putting the prediction out there. If you agree with the overall structure being a 1,2,3 down and now we are in a 4th wave then you would assume that the price would bounce around some more in this area before heading down. This is due to alternation between wave 2 (being simple) and wave 4 (complex and needing more time). If all of this was correct, then you would assume that the price would lower in the 5 wave afterwards.

38.2 fib is a reasonable target for a 4th wave. Also matches low ATR.

The reason I don't trade based on this theory however is you never quite know in moments like this whether its a 4th wave or the structure has completed corrective phase (A-B-C if you're familiar with the theory). Hindsight can make theories look amazing, when you trade them you find the problems unfortunately.

I do hope volatility returns soon.................

Mike Smith

Gold II beeline task #wins > #losses saved my trading career. Thank you Apiaryfund. I know I will be a real trader with this now.

Everything is working, and everything feels real now. I changed my strategies so it's the foundation. It's literally redesigning my strategies! It's great (I didn't even predict that). If my strategies can't pass this benchmark, I don't use it. Thanks again.


Mike, it's not just about wins vs losses but more about equity curve.
Not saying the ratio is not important but the equity curve rules the roost.
Example, the Turtle Traders, great losers but bigger winners.

Mike Smith

Really. I wouldn't had guessed.

BTW how's your #wins vs #losses?

Mike Smith



I dropped down considerably from my 90% to 75%
Won Lost Total
Trades 1881 634 2515

Like I said its all in the equity curve!

Mike Smith

And if you dropped below 50% would you still think #wins > #losses was not important?


It's not that cut and dry but correct.
and no I am not recommending this approach. For more on the win-loss minimums see Mr. Hak's posts but its around 30-33% and the trader could still be profitable.

As for the "Turtle Traders" I cited its a free download or send me your email in a message and I'll make it available on my drive.
It's a quick read but very interesting.

Invetibley this brings the trader to trade management via cash management and position sizing.

Mike Smith

:D I'm with BEELINE on this one


im taking a beating last 2 days


PL: Check out the W1 chart: a potential H&S appears to be forming its R shoulder.

In the grand scheme, yes, I do think that the downtrend will resume relatively soon, but that might be a couple weeks out--depending on whether or not price gets near the L shoulder Hs this week.


What a brain fart?!

Although I still stand by the analysis of my prior comment, I somehow blanked out temporarily over another important piece of my analysis.

We still are in a complex correction right now. (I attached a chart.) The aqua, violet-blue, and red trend lines represent the W1, D1, and H4 PCs (and trends) respectively. So although price probably still will move a little lower over the next few hours, I still expect for price to close above its W1 open (and higher than the high of today) this week. The net upward move will happen as soon as price exits its retracement phase (and enters its recovery phase) on D1.


Hak, I'm thinking that phase will start tomorrow evening or Friday possible Monday with a big GAP.

Hak, you have "The aqua, violet-blue, and red trend lines represent the W1, D1, and H4 PCs (and trends) respectively." does your charting platform do that for you?
If so what platform are you using??


I use a combo of MT4/5 and Tradingview for my charting. I manually drew those lines.

Although I also mark up my charts a bit via Alveo (to help with my triggering and trade management), Alveo's charting doesn't handle certain geometric concepts--that I heavily rely upon in my trading--properly.


I enjoy watching patterns form. Although I (nor anyone else) can precisely predict the path of price, price patterns off higher TFs sometimes are gifts that provide us some mile markers.

I attached another H4 chart. (I made a mistake yesterday with one of the colors yesterday. I wrote violet-blue, and I meant to write blue-violet.) The colors dark goldenrod, aqua, blue-violet, and red (for horizontal and trend lines) represent monthly, W1, D1, and H4 PCs (for trend lines) and R/S zones (for horizontal lines) respectively. I forgot to mention yesterday (and it also applies for this chart today): the vertical lines represent the Tokyo, London, and NY opens respectively.

One of the things that I love about H4 charts is that they provide a hybrid intraday and weekly (with the separators in place) views in a single glance.

Please note the net upward move for today (which might be easier to see for some off a H1 chart). Please also note that I placed the final H4 PC slightly prematurely, because price needs to retrace and then recover one more time off H1 to confirm the new H4 trend. Yet, the afternoon H1 PA today appears to be hinting that a H1 pullback or consolidation will form while we're in the Asian session. Assuming that pans out, then I suspect another break higher might occur around the Frankfurt or London opens. Yet, it's possible--since there's no major news scheduled near those opens--that the break might occur later near the NY open.