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EUR/USD sentiment/ideas

 
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wrightjd95

EUR/USD sentiment/ideas

Hello,

I have been watching the formation on the EUR/USD and we're seeing the pair reaching the resistance level @1.11368 a low not seen since the 21st of June 2017. This seems historical to be a strong level. 

I feel this is a key area for entry. 

I have drawn up an idea on a possible bullish entry. Of course, we could be looking at the support level breaking. 

With the recent GDP release, there is some strong volatility.

I wanted to hear everybody's thoughts on this? 

 

Thanks,

James

 

 

 

 

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Fri, 04/26/2019 - 11:38am
 
akgladius

I just made it to Gold 2 couple days ago. Before, with 10k accounts I liked to trade GBP/JPY pair because of high volatility in the pair. Right now, Gold 2 pre-funded account is only $1,000, so I had to start trading EUR/USD. I have traded this pair for only two days. I do believe we may see a bullish trend reversal pretty soon here.

 
wrightjd95

I made a long entry at near the 1.11368 support level as I believed the level would hold. I bagged 130 pips as it hit the 1.12431 level. Then with the NFP release, I rode the wave back down bagging another 80 pips. Not too shabby!

riding the wave.jpg
 
Kevin Osei-Kofi

Nice, I was at work. I closed a trade at loss this morning because I could not monitor it and I was already deep in the red on it. I'm still experimenting with day trading. Hopefully, I'll be a lot more like you when I sort out my day trading strategy.

 
skucchal

EURUSD has just hit a buy signal @ 1.1219 if we follow @triguy's methodology of trading the 30 day trend line. It is up on a daily, and just crossing the 30 day trendline. I am taking a few Long trades to test the methodology.....

Stop Loss initially set at the lowest of the daily trend and the 30 day trendline - at 1.1174. Attached file shows - Blue Line as 30day trendline, and 9 day White line. Hourly Price bars have crossed the 9 day and are now just starting to cross the 30 day trend line. Over time, they will drag the 9 day above the 30 day if the uptrend continues.

Will try the 30 day trendline over my remaining journey in G2, Stacking in at each daily down, as long as we stay in tune with the 30 day ksen.

EURUSDH1.png
 
burton

james, what is your tradingview account name?

 
gpdno

Just watch the gap from back in April 2017. It will fill at some point and we are getting close and have made several attempts at this point.

Peace,
Greg

 
burton

"we're seeing the pair reaching the resistance" ...james, it's you that is doing the seeing, just saying. ;)

 
burton

greg, current price is about 400 pips away from the gap mentioned...it's been grinding downward since january...i don't really see any attempts to push down 400+ pips...still, i know you love your gaps.

...maybe i should grab some pop corn...a jumbo size popcorn...lol...i'm messing you greg. =)

 
gpdno

It's been in a downtrend for over a year now. It's testing 1.1180 area and rebounded as expected but if it manages to breakthrough... smooth sailing to the gap. It may not, but I've got a bunch of parked orders just in case :)

Peace,
Greg

eurusd.JPG
 
triguylm1

Yep! I agree with Greg. The thing right now is employment numbers for USD continue to be very strong. Especially the housing numbers continue to push this pair bearish. If one adds fundamentals with technical data; Then, one can trade a basic "Fibonacci" retrace scenario. Meaning. Look for dips in the market to enter long positions for a possible bottom formation. Why? Looking at the higher TF, one can expect a reversal. This is a good probability if Euro policy continues to stimulate those economies. Germany, France, Italy, etc.

One can use recent Pivot Highs and Pivot Lows to determine entry and exit price. Also, be looking for the yearly Triple Bottom pattern or Double Bottom formation, opposite of a typical H&S formation. Use the D1 chart for this analysis. which takes about 3 months to form.

Meanwhile, a 30 Day price history (H4 Chart) can help one determine which direction to trade.

Currently I' looking to buy on the dips!

Best regards,

Lindsey

 
harrydmoore

Lindsey,

Do you ever trade the EUR/USD one way and the USD/JPY at the same time it = trading the dollar I think?

 
harrydmoore

I mean both long and short one long and the other short.

 
Rookie

Guys, I don't see the dollar taking a big plunge this summer, I do see it staying with a narrow range. to play the up and down swings.

Lindsey wrote "Use the D1 chart for this analysis. which takes about 3 months to form." please elaborates on the three-month to develope" as it is completed and fully developed? no...

 
triguylm1

@ Rookie, I agree. I think the DXY is holding above 96.80 short term, currently 97.11 So in an analysis, EUR/USD could be forming the possible Upside Down H&S formation, since the left shoulder and Head (Pivot Low) has already formed near 1.110 April 25th, 2019.
So left shoulder April 2nd pivot low, and a possible right shoulder showing a test down on May 3rd. So, it's possible that the first week in June price will trend bullish by breaking through the counter trend line. Note how this counter trend line has been holding off any bullish runs since April 20, 2018 when price dropped out of a 3 month price range. (Again the time cycle of the big reversal)

You may refer to Greg's chart above for each detail.

 
triguylm1

@ Harry M., I see the opposite correlation, but, the same correlation also is found trading the metals. As you can tell by my previous comments I do trade several currency pairs with Silver and Gold. The interesting thing about trading multiple pairs with gold and silver is it can increase one's leverage to a boiling point, and that can be disastrous. So, in a way it's like scaling in and I manage the leverage amount to keep risk within Apiary's risk limits. Meaning, the base fund amount has to be large enough to allow trading more than 2 currency pairs.

Here is the formula for success: Example of a 10K base fund. 4 trades of 0.02 lot = 0.08 lot total leverage. This is about $0.18 per pip Profit/Loss: Then for a price swing of 400 pips max. risk is = $72.00 per trade x 4 trades is $288.00 (Risk 2.9%). This is just an estimate, depending on which currency pair one is trading.

So scaling in with another 4 trades 2 of each currency pair is an addition $288.00 of risk holding up to 400 pip swings.

So the more one increases the total leverage, then the less room for price swings.

I shared my rules for "Range Bound Market Scenarios on another thread:

Range Bound rules:

Rule 1. Trade 0.04 lot size with the intermediate trend toward the mean price; and only 0.02 lot size any other time. Because the higher probability curve puts the larger number in your favor, while making pips going both ways.

Rule 2. If the account has only $8,000.00 balance, then use a 400 pip Stop Loss; why such a large Stop Loss? Because one only needs the stop loss to protect “Profits” not book losses. If you keep rule #1 then the risk will just reach 1.9%: . . Doing the math: 0.04 lot = $0.39 (approx.) per pip. So, a 400-pip move is $156.00 profit or loss. Then that is about 1.9% of $8,000.00 (156 / $8000.00 = 0.019 or 1.9%

Rule 3. Maintain proper leverage size. Note rule 2 if maximum risk of 1.9 may be using most of the 5% risk limit rule. Leaving room for one more position at 1.9% and one position at 1.2% to fill the 5% total limit

That allows only 3 long term positions at a time.

Rule 4. The advantage rule: Putting the 400 pip price range scenario into a numbers game: Thus, trading a number of positions within a 400 pip price range to gain the advantage.

Simply trading a trend can apply similar rules, but use one direction, and use the counter trend as a time to wait on the side lines.

 
burton

how do i say this, without getting slapped...

- seriously, a year, who cares, okay, you do, still, like how many other opportunities have existed during the past 12 months?
- how many of those opportunities, in the past 12 months, where smooth sailing?

the first big drop, from it's peak, was 900+ pips for eurusd...it fell right off the edge, with little to no resistance...doesn't get much smoother than that.

since then, it has been in a declining chop, or what i call a trending consolidation...400+ pips, and it's still 400+ pips away from the gap...

no matter what i think, all i can say is this...

"squirrels to the nuts"

...a movie reference from "She's Funny That Way".

enjoy the ride...i'll be watching, with my popcorn in hand.

 
oceanlover998
 
wrightjd95

Hello!

Wow, I missed a lot here!

Sorry I created a new thread as part of the strategy requirements - when I should have posted an update on these ideas here. I'll put it here - but just to let you know this is my analysis on Friday. However, the pair does seem to be moving as expected.

Quote Friday 31st of June:

"

I expected a strong break up of the descending wedge and longer term reversal. So I waited for Alignment and entered a few positions when the price bounced off the resistance level. So far we are achieving the up break up. Currently, I am closing a few positions and waiting for the price to climb to the 1.11940 level where I am expecting a retest or bounce off the wedge.

" end quote

I also was following the news and saw that the Trump applied tariffs on Mexico which sent the dollar reeling. So I held onto more of my long positions until now. I'm expecting a short-term consolidation period.

It will be interesting to see the NFP this week.

Also as for the discussion on strategies here. Each to their own. I am only speculating on the sentiment. The bigger picture biases lower time frame probability.

@Rookie & Greg - I am leaning this way too now. I do feel that this level offers some good opportunities either way. At the very least we can play those ups and down swings. Which is primarily price cycle that I am interested in. I do expect the downside pressure to alleviate though.

Thanks!

James

reversal_1.png
 
wrightjd95

Sorry for the double post. I wanted to just add my current strategy for the next few days.

As of today, the pair is at 1.25. I am preparing to hold some short positions as I expect the pair to make a bearish adjustment soon.

You can see on the attached drawing my thoughts. The dashed line represents a lot of uncertainty for me. I'll be waiting for the NFP and to see how things develop in the next few days to decide when to close the short positions and to think about going long. I'll keep you updated.

EURUSD play.png
 
wrightjd95

Hello,

A little update here. With the release of the ADP non farm payroll... One of the most negative reports in 10 years we saw a lot weaker dollar. I held off my short positions as I was waiting for this report. Instead, I put in a few long positions to take advantage of this.

I opened the short positions after this event. As shown in this attached file.

trade progress 2 (2).png
 
erika.herrmann2

Hi James, Your name happens to be my sons name "sweet baby James"... I usually trade EUR/USD the 1.11368 that you posted, caught my attention... like your prediction... it's a learning process... I plan to go long & see what happens. thanks forall your posts : )

 
wrightjd95

Hey!

Yep! I was just playing that bearish adjustment before expecting a bigger bullish movement. The NFP was damning, the dollar has not been happy recently.

I closed those positions at around the 50 pip mark. I then traded the NFP.

 
WizMack

Anybody see the possibility of 1.114 on Monday?

 
CirrusSageRL

WizMack, that's exactly what I just wrote on my thread.

2019-06-09 12_05_51-2100683976_ JAFX-Demo3 - Demo Account - [EURUSD,M15].png
 
CirrusSageRL

prediagnostic (prior order didn't complete):

2019-06-09 12_56_46-2100683976_ JAFX-Demo3 - Demo Account - [EURUSD,M15].png
 
wrightjd95

It's been a pretty interesting ride the last week! Hopefully, everybody's made a lot of pips off this! There's been some nice predictable price action with news reports driving them. Initial analyze was correct

Now we're at a critical inflection point - the 1.33 level.

We could see a breakthrough if conditions allow. So keep an eye out for more evidence of a weakening US economy. As for the opposite, we could see the dollar stay in the channel.

21-06-2019.png
 
andy.bettens

I follow a strategy with SL and TP 100 pips on each trade. Trades who are in profit i place a stop loss in profit. I always see that my buy trades without SL in profit are equal to the amount of sell trades without SL in profit. I will try to gain very small wins but lose as less as possible.

 
sunshine564

My strategy for the EURUSD is to always be watching the news and seeing where the currency is currently trading. Because I can only trade for about 3 hours a day I have to watch closer how I trade so I use the H4 time frame. It really depends on what is going on which will determine how I trade.

 
geraldva

I like the EURUSD pair because it is relatively stable and trends are easy to spot.

 
jdteeel_1

I AGREE WITH GERALD WITH THE HELP OF A GOOD HENTOR I SWITCHED TO ALMOST SOLELY USD/EUR AND AT LEAST 1 HOUR INTERVALS MAKE IT SIMPLIER TO READ

 
happy4u40

I could be in the wrong Forum; however, I am having difficulty placing a buy trade with any pair...I get TP/ SL invalid...?
Where can I go to read how to effectively utilize the SL, TS and TP whether I am buying/selling or selling/buying a pair respectively.

 
Rookie

happy, this page might be helpful https://help.apiaryfund.com/knowledge/h2-stylecolor-4f4f4f-font-family-a...
It is under the help tab on your home page tool bar.

 
jdteeel_1

I FOLLOW THE GDP AND I NTEREST RATES BUT AS MOST OF MY TRADES ARE SHORT TERM I DONT USE THESE TRADING ..I'VE FOUND USING THE HI THEIRS NOT T IN MYHE VOLATILITY AND MAKES THE TRADING EASIER.....

 
raoul299

I am bullish on EURUSD as the dollar index continues to fall

 
elvin30ca

Gold on the 4hrs charts looks consolidating i love this type of patterns made me salivate .... a break of 1420 could have potential to run to the long side although a break through 1411 will have a relative nice dive all the way too 1400.

 
Rookie

elvin, very observant! so not that we know it's in consolidation and expansion is coming, which way is the PA going to go?
I like drawing on charts, So I added a dispersion zone.
But there is nothing to tell us which way PA is going to break.
So in order to take advantage of this handy dandy work, we could use both limit orders and stop orders.
However, as Rex showed in lats nights trade development class we could also have a whipsaw and if it occoured we could get hit twice. In Rex's example to combat this threat, he left off the Stop Losses. I have never traded without a Stop and our agreement with Apiary says to use a stop so my solution has a very wide stop loss. I will accomplish the same purpose and you get the trade profit no matter which way PA goes or whipsaws.

What do you think?

XAU 4H.PNG
 
artiekau

in another forum the talked about the Big Boys who move the markets, using the 4 hr chart it is in a downward trend aiming for 1.1113, imo.

 
Courtney10

Did anyone see yesterday's run on EUR/USD? There were some interesting news events and I am curious on your thoughts?

 
wrightjd95

Yeah, I think that was just a reaction to the news. I think the biggest mover for the dollar right now has got to the looming interest rate decision. I'm expecting the dollar to drift in choppy ranges next week. I don't think we're going to see a break any time soon.