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eur/usd trending

 
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rangelzion

eur/usd trending

Looks like the long term trend for the eur/usd is bearish.

Sun, 04/29/2018 - 3:59pm
 
pvideira1

That depends on what you consider long term trend. If you look at the daily chart you can see that the EUR/USD has been in an overall bullish trend since December 2016. Then in the last three months it has been in relative consolidation and after the strong downward move of last week i believe it can still go either way this next week. Meaning that it can both start correcting the downward move of last week and resume the overall long-term trend (which is still bullish) or continue to go down and then we can be witnessing the start of a bearish long-term trend. And if or when there is a little more confirmation of that possible bearish momentum then this could be an opportunity to start building short positions and catching that move almost from the start...

 
triguylm1

European interest rate is same as last quarter: Rates are expected to follow US rate increase this year, so it's still a wash as far as going bearish: More likely to remain range bound.

Try the ADX indicator to aid with the change of trend. Use alignment of a 20 period setting, H1 Chart compared with H4 and D1 Chart.

According to the D1 chart price is currently testing support at the 200 ema line. Economic market conditions should continue to run within the tight price range between support 1.2050 and up to 1.2550

See ECB interest rate decision; "At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases."

Reference: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2018/html/ecb.mp180426.en.html

Note Chart below: Here the EUR/USD D1 chart we see price testing the 200 ema green line. The ADX indicator is showing bearish momentum is increasing, while here at the support zone. If price breaks through 1.2050, then, yes that is the time to take the market short, but I think we will see price move up after the fake-out bearish attempts.

That's my 2 cents,

ADX D1 chart EURUSD April 29.png
 
Rookie

While I would certainly like to agree with you Leslie, the D1 and lower charts do not support that at this time with the exception of the 200 SMA. That said Investing.com say sell all times frame and barchart same.
Weighted Alpha +8.18
5-Day Change -0.00931 (-0.76%)
52-Week Range 1.08391 - 1.25549

For what it worth I have been making a few pips on the eurusd trading between the CCI 120 lines.

Point counter point!

 
triguylm1

Cool, Ed, I like your way of thinking. Most of the time the entry point is triggered by the market, such as my first entry of the day is when price triggers one side or the other in the basic "break-out" during the London session. So, just like I said expect the bearish run! The fake-out before the retracement.

 
vquest

The one thing we can always hold as a constant in trading - the market only moves 3 ways. UP - DOWN - or SIDEWAYS. It's simple but never easy. Enjoy the banter - happy trading!

 
Rookie

@triguylm1, well if you want to see what I did with it wander over to "Random Walk Not" last post/spreadsheet. After I made that post I was smart enough to put on two EURUSD posts.... at the end of the day cost me almost 100 pips. Talk about foot in thy mouth...

 
triguylm1

Yes tonight my screen looks like the screen at the ER. . lots of heart beat movement. Way down then way up and then sideways etc.

I was at work all day so I didn't get into all that action.

 
Rookie

EURUSD divergence, 9:30pm CST 4-30 D1
While beloe SMA 30 but above SMA 200 CCI shows big time divergence , barchart opinion go south youe Jedi!
For you wave folks its also the 5th...
SO I'm thinking south to complete its raining mountain top back to its support, ATR is 75 Pips, I'm in...

Triguy, which way does a divergence break out go???

Previous Close 1.20768
YTD High 1.25549
YTD Low 1.19160
Stochastic %K 10.73%
Weighted Alpha +7.65
5-Day Change -0.01549 (-1.27%)
52-Week Range 1.08391 - 1.25549

EURUSD D1 930pmcst 4-30 divergence.png
 
triguylm1

Just for short term, look at the 5 minute chart using 20 period ADX, tells us momentum is above average, and bears are beating the bulls.

Chart below is the EUR/USD 5 minute chart: Note: blue line is price action, showing momentum is high. Red line is above green by an increasing measurement, showing bearish trend in progress.

Also, check with the H1 chart; it is showing a significant bearish trend in progress.

Just for today M5 Chart  EURUSD May 1.png
 
stvnsttn

@vquest , You forgot Diagonal, my favorite direction.
@triguy 440 pips over 3 weeks is a fake out? Looks to me like it might bounce up at 1.19 theres some support there on the 7 day chart.

EurUSD fake out or brakeout.PNG
 
rangelzion

eur/usd near a month low

 
TheRak

target 1.1720,
Enjoy the ride!

 
Rookie

@TheRak, the trade is on that's 240 pips, we shall see how good you are!... just saying.

EURUSD the Rak 240 pips 530pm CST  5-2-2018.JPG
 
Rookie

Well in for a penny, in for a pound Rac,
actually I agree with you and will take some more positions on the way down the trend!
So I have showed you mine lets see yours....

BTW this is only a $2,500 account size

EYRUSD 610pm CST 5-2-2018.JPG
 
triguylm1

Actually I'm on my third wave of going long on silver. It's still a bit of a whipsaw here, but the dollar pip ratio is about equal at 0.02 lot size. So when I earn a 20 pip trade, that's $20.00 in the bank each. I'm up 15 % last week and headed for another 10% plus this week. Who knows if the market will push back up after the Fed meeting today, which continued to keep rates unchanged today.

 
Rookie

@triguy you get no argument from me. Your technicals dwarf mine...
I do see a green candle getting ready to complete on the D!. Attached is a D7 chart and no green candles yet but the CCI is low and has a bullish slope of about 70 degrees having just crossed the -120 line. So the positions I took above may be much to aggressive for my current account size if the pullback continues. So I will place a D1 hedge or three for 50 pips each matching the quantities.

That said as we discussed in group today is the PA breaks below the 1.17195 support, its clear sailing for a long slide down a slippery slope...

How am I doing at this?

BTW thanks for pointing this out as the pullback was 25 pips X3 trades in progress. My hedge is working but a tad late. There is about 15 minutes left on the candle and I think the PA will turn south.

EURUSD 1am CST 5-3.png
 
triguylm1

Good job 007, taking a hedge trade on can also help fund another short position at the short term pivot high there.

Hey Steve, I like how you put out the D7 chart. Most currency pairs will move about 1,200 pips in a year. So, I was simply referring to a short 1 day reference to the fake-out price move, the critical price point for me was when price moved by 1.2050 on May 1st. All systems go on the bearish positions!

 
cruising4pips

Hey Rookie, I agree with you LONG TERM, However I expect a bounce up from 1.19 first before the next leg down.

I was actually hoping it would bounce up to 1.20 for a nice short - maybe the NFP will provide that stimulus OR it blows down thru 1.19.....

 
Rookie

@cruising4pips, maybe so that's a substantial support zone, Imore think it will stall then the friday morning news and it will sail stall a few hundred pips and stall at around 1.1650 where I will have just come back from the bank before it continues or finds renewed support. Big money has leveled off and taken a small dip the barchart says: Bar chart opinion 80% big selling for tomorrow and the next several days and long term is sell.
Weighted Alpha +6.65
5-Day Change -0.01648 (-1.36%)
52-Week Range 1.08391 - 1.25549
Investing.com is strong sell past eh dail but the month opinion is mixed.
In the am after news. I am going to add more shorts, if my account larger full lots would be in order for this move!
As AllenG says Stay Green My Friend.

 
Rookie

@cruising4pips, here ya go cruisin, I did some charting in Alveo.. with the M1 chart and took three trades in my Sim2 account as my funded account already has 3 eirused trades in it.
The attachment will show the trades and chart for the range breakout to the south returning to previous lowes.
Lookin at the D1 chart it might be easy to construe a pole and flag with a breakout to the north but when expanding to a monthly or longer the opposite is clearly shown.

AttachmentSize
EURUSD Sim2 4am CST 5-4-2018.docx 144.62 KB
 
cruising4pips

Rookie, I think we are on the same page - LONG TERM. Personally I've got SELL LIMIT ORDERS OPEN on EUR/USD at 1.9999 with a SL at 1.2085 and TP at 1.1900

My rational comes from the DAILY fib chart attached:

Going from the April 16 High of 1.2413 to the May 1 low of 1.1937 the 23% retracement level = 1.2039

On my daily charts I had a support level at 1.1930 (which held) and a resistance level at 1.2083 which is my SL

Yesterday's inside bar has me concerned that the current downtrend may be resting (consolidation) or maybe just taking a breather for the NFP today....only time will tell. Ultimately I believe EUR/USD will be lower 1.1850 is my next support followed by 1.1740 but these are DAILY levels which take much more time to reach.

Cheers!

Euro.050418.png
 
cruising4pips

I guess I'm hoping for that "dead cat bounce"

deadcatbounce.jpg cat-bounce.png
 
Rookie

your graphics are just so kewl beans

 
KevinBanks

cruising4 pips: graphic is great, lol.

 
Rookie

@KevinBanks, read your bio, very Zen lifestyle it should suite trading very well.

 
triguylm1

Crusing4pips, looks possible since the market may bounce off support, but it's not going to bounce that much in a down trend. So why wait for the extreme, when you can take profit in the here and now between 1.9500 and 1.9125 S/R short term.

007 here we go on another wave of shorts.

Capture 125 May 4.PNG
 
Rookie

Leslie, this time I got you beat... I'll post em later with my weekly.
One not about the above hedging I surly don't like it when the trend changes and goes against the hedge.....
I'm just not equipped for it. It the reason I took the trade is no longer valid close the trade.

 
midasfx

my 2 penny analysis of EURUSD short term.

eurusd is finishing wave 3 and will be bouncing up for wave 4 in the coming weeks.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BjGprYO2/

 
cruising4pips

Leslie, You were right and I was wrong. I guess I was "hoping" that the NFP would produce more volatility than it did! I didn't get my short triggered but cest la vie.

Midasfx - I LIKE your EW analysis and based on that pin bar I too expect that EUR/USD will rise up to the 1.2050 level (at a minimum)

Hey rookie, thanks for your help...

index.jpg
 
salilvaidya

thats correct, the EUR USD is bouncing back , looks to break the 1.2 for sure!!

 
Rookie

which way will it go Doc?
the EURUSD attachment is from 11:30 pm CST, looks to me as a big divergence id about to end on this D1 chart.

EURUSD 1130pm CST 5-6-18.png
 
triguylm1

It most likely will not break above 1.2 as dollar continues it's bullish momentum from economic bullish reports coming in this week.

Also, use trailing SL so when the market continues to drop one can hang in there for about 200 pips.

 
Rookie

Leslie, looks like you got that correct.
this morning in class(s) I watching my last three EURUSD trades for the day just after the NY open settled, reverse.
So in this case NBD they will return because it hasn't completed going south. right.
However in hindsight and my rules and CCI I should have closed to reenter short another time.
If id did and should have done either way is place and I shutter to say hedges or counter trend trades to cover.
Brain fodder for me.

EURUSD 1015am CST 5-7.png
 
TR

After series of short term in and outs (with negative impact to account) on EURO's five cent slide I finally manage to catch something.

Self note: How hard it is to check the longer time period on trending market?

eurusd decending trend11925.JPG
 
bivensjm

Still catching some sweet bearish movement on EURUSD.

MyNoNameStrategy - example - 05082018.png
 
Aimoc

Glad I found this thread, I am a big fun of EUR USD... Looking forward to learning from you all.

 
Rookie

12:40 pm ST EURUSD 5M, Looks like maybe a set up for the Trump Speech in 20 minutes and this pair will head south!
news leak but maybe just retune to the mean? maybe.

EURUSD 1240pm CST 5Min.png
 
triguylm1

I finally arrived in Africa today, will be out here for about 4 weeks. So, yes the Euro may still have bearish sentiment, but continue to expect pull-back opportunities as market continues to expect US dollar to trade in the 90 to 95 price range for a while.

I'm currently reading "Currency Wars" by James Rickards. The author is an investment banker and he advises the Department of Defense, the U.S. intelligence community, and major hedge funds on global finance. Yet one of the most interesting projects he worked on is serving as a facilitator of the first ever financial war games conducted by the Pentagon. Anyway, the point here is the book has scenarios and methods of teaching one how to read what's about to go down.

I'll be happy to answer a lot of questions about the predictions and scenarios Rickards claimed in the book.

One thing for sure, the bearish pressure we're seeing on the Euro is a result of this currency war theory he has written about.

Think about how massive the market has become since the baby boomers have trillions of investment funds in the markets.

 
Rookie

Hay triguy, glad you had a safe trip! I will have to get that book. Thanks for the heads up.
As an example of a silent currency war look at he recent Communist block history and in particular the USSR.
More powerful than a speeding train, able to fly over high buildings and cross the widest ocean...

 
triguylm1

Yes, and all it took in one scenario is a tariff on trade!

 
Rookie

"in one scenario" but there is a bigger very hush hush scenario as well.... just saying.

 
fx grandy

Yes it has been Bearish, I have traded short on several EUR/USD trades and has paid off

 
Rookie

EURUSD 6:20 am CST 5/9/18
Many of you bee's may have watched the pair pullback for most of the morning for 50 pips. this was a bit disconcerting for me because I have four trades on it instead of my usual 3. So I went looking for a change in the sentiment or estimates, nop none. WHat I did find was the $DXY %Alpha had changed from a positive gree to a negative red, about 5.5 to -3.5 a pretty big move. That accounted for the weaker usd strength. My very limited experience at technicals means this is a rest period with a retracement back to the mean which is supported by the sentiment. This according to the chart wobbling at the minus 40-60 pip rage coming into the NY open/overlap where I expect a healthy return to the mean to continue the return.

The pair is also at its resistance level and has tested it 2 or 3 times.

What does this mean? As soon as it is confirmed with at least two closed candles and with a pip or two crossed the CCI 120 line heading south there will be a 50 pip intraday 50 pip opportunity for profit.

If it doesn't retrace I will be closing for a substantial loss only to return when it starts.

EURUSD 620amCST 5-9-2018.JPG
 
leptokurticStoploss

Since I'm Gold now, hello rookie007!

I scalp the renko on mt4 since Alveo didn't fix theirs yet. 2 pip boxes with the 50 HMA then Shawn's wobble's good to go.
I trade after the renko close on either side of the 50 HMA and open scalp orders. RIght now I am averaging 100 to 50 pips for 1 to 2 hours. If Alveo will fix their renko, I could make more.

2018-05-09 21_09_26-2100530073_ JAFX-Demo3 - Demo Account - [EURUSD,M7 (offline)].png
 
Rookie

Mike I I would like to see your stats block or you last 100 trades because that is a very impressive statement.

 
Rookie

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 56% Sell with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.
---------------------------------------------------------

a rookie opinion, bearish a few pips then a dead cat bounce

attached is EURUSD wk chart

EURUSD WK 5-12.JPG
 
Rookie

EURUSD D1 chart

Looks like a completion of a small up trend then back to south for a bit then back to bullish.

EURUSD D1 5-12.JPG
 
weaverbethann

Investing.com Analyst Al Brooks is seeing the Eur rally 150-200 pips over the next two weeks before developing another leg down...so...who knows. Something to watch.