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Funded Profits Expectation Spread Sheet @ $2,500.00

 
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triguylm1

Funded Profits Expectation Spread Sheet @ $2,500.00

Once funded, I thought about setting a goal of reaching 1.2% a day, since that is what I was making in my simulated accounts and lately as well.  Seems easy enough, right?

That average has to account for days that are much higher and for days of negative draw down.  So, since the fund is reset on the 20th of the month it makes sense to make a apread sheet for each 5 trading days up to the 20 trading days until the next monthly pay day.  See results below for the $2,500.00 funded level:

 

 

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Sat, 04/21/2018 - 5:36pm
 
Bill K

Interesting approach!

 
RNM

Nice spreadsheet Leslie. So what how do we correlate the Apriori status bar 0.00% percentage to the compound rate??

 
triguylm1

I think it's a realistic approach. Shawn has made it clear that one should set Profit targets inside the "Probability Frontier".

So, I'm currently running 93% win to 7% loss ratio. In order to run those kind of numbers one has to be careful about which direction to enter the market, since the market seems to reverse right when "I" enter the market more times than not. So, I learned to trust in my analysis and stay the course.

 
triguylm1

So, the correlation of the Apiary status bar % runs off the current days base account amount. Thus, if one holds true to profit of 1.2% then the Apiary account will also match up with the spread sheet since the next day Apiary base account also increased that 1.2% or about $30.00 (Day 1) up to $37.63 (Day 20) Thus first five days total $153.64 @ 1.2% and 20 days total profit is $673.59 @ 1.2%

The math is rather straight forward: $2,500.00 x 1.2% = $30.00
Day 2 ($2,500.00 + 30.00) x 1.2% = $30.36
Day 3 ($2,500.00 + 30.00 + 30.36) x 1.2% =30.72
etc.

 
RNM

got it. could you add a few lower rungs as Apiary teaches from 1.2% TO 1% daily is more than enough to make on wealthy.

The old 10 pip a day thing!

So for really good traders 1% daily and better id cool but for us mere mortals... that is pushing it just a but especially when your a newbie and fo0r us rookies its not an everyday occurance.

I have also concluded that even close to 1% daily is about 30-50 dollars per month using .01Q and %R.

 
triguylm1

Ed, that is about right on the $1,000.00 account. See the 5 day result below: the 20 day is $220.00

Capture 1,000.00.PNG
 
triguylm1

The $2,500.00 Base fund amount spreadsheet is also nice to refer to when you are approved to move to the next level here;

Capture 2,500.00 Base Fund.PNG
 
chall113

I don't think that you should set a daily expectation, just trade and trust yourself. Let the cards fall where they may.

 
czgriffin

I like the compounding approach. It provides a good framework to build a plan for trading.

 
RNM

@triguy absolutely on target chart, ths.

@chall113, absolutely wrong. How will you or do you know what to improve upon in your trading to advance. Same goes for your trades if you do not examine them.... with at a minimum you may find yourself paddling upstream with no paddles.

 
triguylm1

The target chart gives one a reference of expectations according to the current system one is using. Some average on the low end, and some average higher depending on many variables.

I prefer to aim for a high probability percentage of at least 1.2% average, so some days are more and of course, some days are less, but it gives me a reason to push myself a little more. Also, I use this to keep myself from over trading when PA runs flat.

Rookie, thanks, I appreciate your support.

 
chris_4

This is a great idea....but trying to set an expectation has led many a trader to ruin. I mean, there is going to come a day when you are down a bit - and feel pressed to reach towards your daily goal - compounded the troubles. I would focus more on being profitable and advancing.

It isn't until you get to larger accounts that you can truly expect to make a living.

 
triguylm1

For me, trading with a goal provides high probability, so, I have maintained 20 days out of 20 days of 0.85% up to 5.2% profitable days this month since entering 2nd funded level, I don't worry about the 1 bad day of only 0.85%, I'm looking to be consistent and reach realistic goals.

Trading systems have to be able to adapt to different market conditions, so I expect the market to be changing from trend to counter trend, and from consolidation to break-out, etc.

Does any body have a range bound strategy, Does any one use a hedge strategy? Does anyone else run the 28, 29, 30 pip limit order for whipsaw market conditions, and so forth.

 
ravindren.sankar

In one of the videos by Robbooker, he was advocating a constant built up in the funded account to start with. It is like 10 dollar a week, for a month and then increase it to 15/20 dollar a month for another week and to increment it slowly and keep the target acheivable as well as consistent. Apiary also teaches us to take small incremental steps in our efforts but with gold levels, it is the consistency factor coming into larger play. If consistently 1.2% profit a day is achieved for a month or so, the same may be increased by small increment say to 1.25% and work on it for month. I think, 1.2% need not be kept as constant for a very long time. I hope to join Gold 3 by first half of July, 2018.

 
haydn.c.logan

Tri guy, Congrats on reaching LEVEL 2 FUNDING!!!

 
bperkins8654

I have a similar calculation for each day as well. Mine is slightly lower at 1%. But I think that is a good key.

 
michaelsedgley

triguyIm1 congratulations on your work and progress.

I am keeping my expectations low while i am on a low account of between 0.30% - 0.50% per day, untill i am much more confident of my strategy which is a low risk strategy anyway. But if i am consistant why increase my targets just let the account size increase instead. But it`s great to see people set higher goals and achieve them, and in many cases just amazing ( until the drawdown day comes) i guess it comes down to each persons risk reward appetite which reflects in their stop losses. At this stage i see no point in setting higher targets unless Apiary started setting percentage gain targets which they don`t at the moment.

good trading everyone.

 
jan_1

If you want to go the compound route just remember that you will have to adjust your position size after every profitable day to achieve the same daily growth (for the same amount of pips) measured as a % of your balance.

 
becksgroup50

Triguy
Thanks for starting this thread.
Thank for re-inforcing the impact that compounding growth has on an account balance be it $1000 or $2 500

Your 1.2% target per day seems realistic in that it does not force you to take unnecessary risks as reagrds
position size or risk management

 
BruceWayneTrades

Thanks for uploading!

 
Steve Bohreer

Yes, Thanks for uploading. Very informative and helpful info

 
triguylm1

Thanks Hayden!,

yes indeed I had a fund increase, which helps to run a t least 1% consistently, as some trades are caught in consolidation for a while.

and so far I have had over 100 profitable days in a row since that Feb 9th pivot high on the EUR/USD. I found the smaller lot size is so much less stressful, and allows the position to run to higher profit targets.

Thanks fellow bees for the positive feed back.

jan_1, interesting you mentioned the percentage of lot size should also be considered. That's a nice problem to have!

Capture 131.PNG
 
RNM

Leslie, looking good their Sir!!

 
haydn.c.logan

Beautiful equity curve Leslie!

 
Merrick777

Triguy, I like what you're bringing to our attention about setting a % goal and the power of compounding, but there's one question that I have. Let's say a traders strategy produces 10 pips a day consistently, then wouldn't that trader have to trade larger lot sizes to reach the 1% daily goal vs a trader who's strategy produces say 40 pips per day? I've seen many traders speak of making hundreds of pips per day but there are many traders that for the present time are only consistently producing smaller amounts. Would it be reasonable for these traders to strive for 1% daily using a larger lot size? Thanks for your insight on this question. I also welcome the comments of everyone on this question. Best wishes to all.

 
RNM

Merrick, I have asked that very same question since being funded. Your logic is quite correct but when you say produces are you saying consistently every day? Therein lies the million question of winners in a row vs losers in a row and the expectancy. But for example, let's say the trader has a consistent 80% win-loss ration and a POSITIVE (being the keyword) expectancy the trader is good to go. I.E. the trader's edge! All things remaining equal the only item then that would change is the money earned.

I have tested this and yes it works 100%.

Now what doesn't work is "all things being equal" they never are and the trader is subject to emotions. One of which is greed. Let's suppose a trader I know is doing this. Things go along just consistently profitable. Then this trader gets the bright idea to put on multiple positions. This also works very well and the trader is earning about $100.00 daily. UNTIL this trader gets lopsided. Then whamo and then this trader does the unthinkable and rides the loser.

So I think you know the ending and are getting my drift...

Counterpoint if you can wobble on any time frame and have enough funds in your account to carry the trades thru there isn't much risk. This trader I know invariably gets caught getting lopsided against the major trend. So for me its only one trade per pair and no more double, triple or quad losses.

Happy Memorial Day.

 
bigelk

Thanks for posting the spreadsheet and info. regards

 
triguylm1

Merrick777, I only have a few hours a day to set up my trades for the day, especially lately, as I'm working in Africa and without WiFi during all the London Session and most of the New York session, So, I have to rely on profit targets to make any money. I have to set and forget, since I have no way of entering trades during the busy busy trading day between 6:30 GMT to about 18:30, so, that's 12 hours of leaving myself out there... but my 90 day risk max, is only 0.71%, my 30 day risk max. is only 0.41% and my profit targets vary between 3 pips to 78 pips today, and normally around an average of 14 pips. See my results today below of 2.11%

You may notice some of these trades may have been held over from Sunday's entries, but most were placed before the London Session.

Interesting question, Would those with 10 pip targets be able to acquire over 1% profit target. Thus, a $2,500.00 account would need to earn the dollar amount of over $25.00 on that 10 pips. I'm estimating it would take about 0.32 lot size depending on the currency pair. That would only allow about 20 pips of risk to reach the 2% risk limitation. My SL settings have to be far enough away to avoid the market pulse when price begins expanding both ways! Even when I go with the trend the pulse of the market can push price into a counter trend run of about 40 pips depending on the currency pair, GBP pairs move almost twice the USD/CAD, so I only trade the GBP pairs when price is near S/R levels.

You will notice I trade the 0.02 lot size, and occasionally 0.03 lot. This allows me to hold a position and a hedge position in some cases, of over 280 pips on the .02 lot and about 190 pips on the .03 lot trade, but since I scale in and out, then that SL setting is around 120 pips at first, and then most of the time I just leave it there as price is heading toward the profit targets. I find the trailing stop is useless because my computer is off while I'm at work with no WiFi anyway.

So, I basically gather the news on DXY, and for me that includes crude oil inventory levels, numbers on consumption of oil and gas, the bond market, and 10 year Treasury trend, along with the Canadian economy statistics, and COT stats. I also use Silver as an indicator for short term trends, as price is currently pushing down to support near 16.25, due to so much volatility in the markets in general, especially the Cryptocurrency Pairs like Bitcoin.

If News comes out and price begins to move against my position I simply use my phone to close the positions. If I don't have a connection, then I have to take a 5 minute break and go to a place that I can log into the WiFi. But most of the time I just trust my research and analysis.

Some times I think about how much more I could scale in as price is moving in the positive direction, but then, again, I'm thankful that I can take profit near the S/R levels.

Happy trading!

Capture 135.PNG Capture 136.PNG
 
fx grandy

Triguy,

I really like the steps you are taking to assure success, it takes these types of measures to help us succeed.

I am fairly new to Apiary since January of this year and am still in the learning process. Therefore I don't know what lot to start with in my funded account. I was thinking about trading micro lots and then raise the micro lots in increments before going to mini lots.

Maybe you can guide me and others in the community on that, I would appreciate it.

Thank you in advance

 
triguylm1

Sure Fx grandy, Those bees that are in Gold 2 know it only takes about 20 pips at 0.05 lot size (depending on currency pair) to run 1% risk tolerance for a SL setting: thus, it will be a high probability that price will whip saw enough to reach the SL. So, if market spikes about 40 pips, then, that is around a 2% risk limit amount or a 2% profit depending on the position. So, figure a 0.01 lot size allows about 190 to 200 pips before price reaches 2% profit or loss on this $1,000.00 account depending on the currency pair one is trading.

It's always a good idea to create positive expectancy by starting out with 0.01 lot size until you build confidence in your system, and then be careful not to scale too many trades into a winning position, as this increases your leverage in the market; thus, the SL settings will also be tighter, so if one is trading up to 5 positions of .02 lot size then, figure, the equivalent of one 0.10 lot with the 5% risk limit near 67 pips. In other words, each trade could use a trailing stop out near 76 pips on average. meaning a total of 380 pips if you add all 5 positions, so a profit of 5% if all 5 positions have a total of 380 pips earned. These calculations depend on which currency pair, since the GBP pairs run different numbers here. This above numbers represent EUR/USD and the USD/CAD currency pairs.

Look to trade Range Bound Markets, this way the SL setting can be tight, just about 30 pips away from S/R zones. Think about it, Price runs up and down whip saw PA to support and resistant zones during a 5 day period,

also: Trending markets, do the same thing within the bullish channel or the bearish channel.

 
Merrick777

Rookie007, thank you for confirming my thinking about "lot size" in reaching the 1% goal depending upon the pips produced by the traders strategy and you are correct that in saying "produced" I mean "consistently". I've got bitten by placing multiple trades at one time myself and the results were mixed. Like you, I now prefer to place one trade per pair and manage that to TP, SL or Hedge. I was floppy in Gold 1 for 3 months until I started the one trade, one pair plan. After doing so, my 20, 50 and 100 day stats were balanced and my 30 day rolling stats balanced. As a result, 2 weeks later I'm Gold 2. Thanks for the confirmation, I'll stick with the one pair one trade plan. Triguy, that is some awesome research that you do that gives you the confidence to "set and forget" trades and not have internet access afterwards. And to still be profitable...., that's amazing! I see I've got more to learn about researching. Thanks for the comment to FX Grandy about starting with .01 lot size to build positive expectancy ( that was going to be my next question but you've answered it already). I can always slowly raise my lot size afterwards. Thanks to both of you for your comments, advise and help.

 
RNM

Kewl Beans Merrick, after having a chat with Gregg and a $$ correlation in group I switched to using .01 = ten cents, .5 = fifty cents and .1 = $1.00 which is as high as I dear to count at my funded level. I will put as many as two trades on if not laddered if laddered and I'm in profit may do more but haven't been there yet.

and Lesily has been at the technical stuff for 10 years and I don't know if I will live long enough to learn half what he knows.... he is a real prize for Apiary and I'd bet he will be at 100K before the year is out. He is one of the smartest most consistent Pip raders I have seen in Apiary.

 
Merrick777

Triguy, one more question and I ask this because of your research expertise. What's a good way to determine support/resistance levels? Should one look at the Apiary Pivots, Fibs or what? If one is wanting to catch the move of a one hour chart, should he (she) look at the 1h, 4h or d1 charts to identify support/resistance levels? Are support/resistance levels the same as supply and demand zones? I welcome the comments, insight and input of all traders. As I commented one time in DFF, "I need all the help I can get". Thanks to everyone for taking time to respond, it's greatly appreciated.

 
RNM

Merrick, I'm sure Leslie's answer will be more your liking of scientific but here are my pips worth,
Imagen the pips are people, hay gets carried away .. go for it.

Now look for little gatherings of two or more even a group, What are they doing? maybe just hanging out waiting for some action? or direction like little minions.. maybe they are just walking a line or canoeing across the river. But if they are moving up or down it's not a support or resistance. The little people are on a floor below or a floor above just like a hotel, again if they are moving up or down they are on the stairs or elevator moving in either direction to the next floor.

If they go down when the gather again its a new floor called support and the old floor is not resistance.
If they go up the old ceiling is not the new floor and there will be a new ceiling above them.

What I do is try and line up the S&R back in time with older S&R to gauge how strong that level may be and look for the white space. We like white space because that's where the group has to cross. If that space if 50 pips or better take it.

I would use Fibs and line that up with S&R and go back as far as I can to identify true areas of potential pips. I don't do this now in Alveo, however, I di know of two paid for platforms that have an excellent tool. that does just that. You can also do this on most platforms like tradingview.com etc.

Another way is to use the pivots from a site such as metaf.com which offers several versions to choose from, I here woodie's is very popular. Have I no. I just use the two or three candle methodology. After a bit, you can get very good at it. Once you ID the floor and ceiling measure the pips between them see where the PA is and adjust your TP accordingly and you already have the stop loss just a few pips the other side of S&R depending on which way the PA is heading.

See easy peasy that why it's only my pips worth which at this moment ti time is negative...

 
kevyb777

Hi everyone

Is it possible someone could advise me(in simple terms) on hedging. would love to get to grips with it and knowing when I should use it in my trading. I am mainly a scalper so would I ever use hedging?

p.s thanks triguylm1 for your advise in silver im moving slowly up the ranks

 
RNM

there are a few comments in this thread, https://apiaryfund.com/forum/hedging-1 for4 a head start on the topic.

 
kevyb777

Hi rookie007

Thank you for taking the time to post. I will have a look tonight and hopefully learn something.

 
triguylm1

Hedging strategies work better when markets are range bound, so the idea is to continue to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. So that begs the question how can one pick the top and bottom? I think it's possible, I have had a few lucky cracks at it, but that's because I kept adding to a position in the market and landed an entry at the pivot high of the day.

So, the way to approach this system is to begin with a buy and a sell position near the middle of the trading range, or one may elect to simplify by using the 200 ema line for the entry point. As price enters a price zone near support add another long position or more positions if risk to reward ratio is above average.and tighten trailing stop on short position(s).

As price returns to the 200 ema line take profits, and reenter positions (Ladder strategy) both ways again. As price decides to run bullish and test resistance add another short position and begin to tighten trailing stop on long position(s).

So, each time price returns to the 200 ema, take profit, and every time price runs to Support or to Resistance, take profit and reverse position.

Please keep in mind monthly reports come out the first week of each month, so beware of larger runs during those events. `

 
triguylm1

Merrick, You asked, "What's a good way to determine support/resistance levels? Should one look at the Apiary Pivots, Fibs or what? If one is wanting to catch the move of a one hour chart, should he (she) look at the 1h, 4h or d1 charts to identify support/resistance levels? Are support/resistance levels the same as supply and demand zones?"

Rookie mentioned how the market runs to different S/R levels, and so yes this can be as easy as using the past 5 day pivot high and pivot low prices to determine if the market is actually trending or if it's bouncing around in a trading range.

Once one has determined a trend, then one has to expect each counter trend is testing S/R levels. So, support level 1 may very well be the previous days pivot low. support 2 may be only 20 to 30 pips below that, and support level 3 may be only another 20 to 30 pips below that. So, yes the H1 and H2 charts show definitive S1, S2, S3, price zones. and R1, R2, R3 price zones as well. These are areas in price history that technical systems base entry and exit strategies. So, the probability of a bullish run to R1 is very high, a larger run to R2 is most likely, and a run to R3 is a maybe. On the reverse sided a bearish run to S1 is very high, S2 most likely, and S3 is a maybe! Technically, the Fibonacci indicator is helpful, but it just confirms the basic numbers I mentioned above. Who knows exactly how far each bullish or bearish run will go.

So in an answer to your questions, A good way to determine S/R levels is go go to the H2 and H4 and D1 charts, check for trend, and draw a counter trend line. This way you can determine if price is breaking out of the bullish or bearish channel, or if price is caught in a range bound market.

Of course the range bound market is easy to determine S/R level; the trending market is also easy to determine by drawing the trending channel, to determine possible breakout.

.

 
triguylm1

.

 
Mike Smith

@triguylm1

We can lose 2% a day, so what happens if we are only losing every day? Then the funded account loses all money? Do we start over with a new funded account?

 
triguylm1

That much loss is possibly Mike, but why lose confidence if your system is working.

I'm over 110 days in a row of profitable days, My risk for the same 110 days is .071% max. per one trade, so that amount is very small, thus; my daily profits are greater than my daily loss. Hope that makes sense on how I can be so consistent.

thanks

 
triguylm1

sorry for the spelling, I'm using my phone for this latest response

 
deeptijadli14

Great going @triguyim1. You really are an inspiration......Will try setting goals for myself too....

 
Merrick777

Triguy and Rookie, thanks for your answers. I'm working on adapting my strategy to longer time frames. I think setting TP's close to S/R levels will help me allow my winners to run.

 
Mike Smith

@triguylm1

question not answered, what happens if funded account goes to 0. I'll ask support.

Do you mind sharing your strategy?

 
RNM

Me thinks that up to Ron, I think that Lesley has not had any 1st hand experience of a busted funded account,

 
RNM

Me thinks that up to Ron, I think that Lesley has not had any 1st hand experience of a busted funded account,

That said I have heard of one or two that worked their way back up and out to be a consistently profitable trader.

 
mickmckay

Mike, I am pretty sure that if you were losing every day in a funded account then you would be having a call from Ron way before you get to zero!!!

 
Merrick777

Mike Smith, on your ApiaryFund home page, click "library", click "video clips", then click "2012 Fall Summit: Path to Funding". In this video, Ron Evans gives the answer to Apiary's action concerning a funded trader who is losing money. Hope this helps. Best wishes!

 
triguylm1

Mike, sorry, I don't know what happens if a funded account keeps drawing down to zero. But at 2% loss each time it would take a long time of bad trading for that to even happen. I must say, there have been weeks when I thought I couldn't buy a winning trade. I was pulling my hair out trying to find out why the market seemed to see my SL setting as a target!

Yep, Merrick, I recall there is information on the path to funding, that addresses the subject.

 
RNM

Todd addressed in in class today, you will be allowed to work out of it. I suspect that doesn't mean forever.

 
triguylm1

Mike you also asked if I would share my strategy, so Yes I will share as follows:

I don't know if anyone else uses wide SL settings because of the possibility of market running hundreds of pips, but, I figure part of my position in the market depends on market volatility to make money. So, I do simple research on the major 6 economies looking at interest rate sentiment, currency index of each, ranking DXY top leading indicator, along with the GBP, EUR, JPY, CAD, CHF.
In a way, this is similar to using currency strength indicators.

http://completecurrencytrader.com/currency-strength-indicator.html#book_...

Every day another news event moves the markets to some degree. So the way I trade is based of of technical analysis of S/R levels, potential profit target based on previous days Pivot H & L.

Typical my trading day begins in consolidation during the Asian session. If market is trending then I will enter a position with the trend and if price pulls back I have the room to continue to add another 0.02 lot size. So I keep risk very small to have stability through the whip saw PA. My calculation for the daily profit target is around 45 to 90 pips depending on the 5 day Pivot High or low.
I'm looking at the possibility frontier of PA moving to about 13 to 30 pips higher than the previous days high in a bullish trend. So opposite in a bearish trend (13 to 30 pips lower than previous days pivot low).

Trading is even easier when market conditions are range bound, then just look at the H2 chart and trade off S/R levels.

I look for range bound markets to trade.

My 30 day risk max. is 0.41% since I have a way to exit trade when market conditions change, I seldom leave my stop loss setting out to far once price is moving toward PT.

My 90 day risk max. on a trade is 0.71% This max. risk per trade is a part of doing business in trading I expect to be on the wrong side a few times, hopefully, keep winning numbers much higher than the losses.

I use the 200 ema for reference of entering both ways on range bound markets, and reverse positions near S/R levels and then repeat again near the 200 ema on the M5 chart. Please keep in mind the range bound market is based on the H2 chart, so about 16 or 17 days of price history, generally, looking for when price stops trending before entering a range bound system.

I also, use a long term hedge, style system, it's complicated, because it involves the counter trend position as well as the trending positions, basically taking 2 trending trades against 1 counter-trend position at Fibonacci entry points.

I also, trade the London Break-out on Thursday, since it's usually the one day that price continues on trend.

Friday, I expect that to be a "Fake-out Friday" of reversals and Spike type PA. I typically set up my 28 pip, 29 pip and 30 pip limit orders above and below current price during 3 consolidation phases of the day, and will make bank on all those spike moves.

I use a cross over strategy as the 50 sma crosses over the 200 ema for swing trades.

All, may seem extra ordinary, but the swing trade only happens 2 or three times a week.

Also, please keep in mind each system usually overlaps another system, so I only use about 0.75% risk per system. In other words, a max. of 16 trades at any given time.

Please note: in Gold 2 the account is only $1,000.00 so I could only trade a max. of 3 trades at any one time, or more if scaling in on the winning side.

I also, use the 50% rule strategy as "price moves to far to fast", then, I will enter a reversal position near 2 deviation off the spike move much like my 28, 29, 30 pip limit orders.

While in Africa, I only have a few hours of internet at the hotel, so, I have to rely on my 24 hour strategy to make money, Thus, I have to analysis if the market is range bound for the day or is it trending; thus, I place Buy orders at or near Support if a bullish market. Or I place Sell orders near resistance in a bearish market. If range bound I use my 28,29, 30 pip limit orders, along with hedge trades off the 200 ema. I typically check back after 12 to 14 hours of work to see about 1.2% to 2.6% profit.

I do scalp a few times while setting up the daily limit orders and profit targets.

 
RNM

Leslie thanks for this post.
So after visiting the website looking for the reference book, http://completecurrencytrader.com/currency-strength-indicator.html#book_... I suppose you have to take the course to get it?

 
triguylm1

007,

Sorry, that was for the book.

try this one: http://completecurrencytrader.com/currency-strength-indicator.html

Try visiting the site during regular trading hours, it has a setting for the M1 chart, but change that to the M30 chart, also check it out with the H1 chart setting.

Hope it's working for you for free there. Let me know on Monday.

Thanks,
Lindsey

 
RNM

Yes, the indicator works. no, I was looking for the book referred to.

 
JBee

Triguylm1,
I have the same mindset. (just got $1000 Funded as well)
I set up an excel sheets....1%, $1000, $2500, $5000 $10,000 and also with 3%, & 5% just to see what could be.

I also agree with you. "You Get What You Measure For" So set it up. Trade it...hit your Target...go play tennis.
Come back and win again.

Here are some excel sheets that I started working on.
still i n development and you may find useful.
I am hitting my 1% Target so far.

Then after I hit it for the next 10 days...trading sessions I expect to get moved from $1000 up to $2500.
Also, moving up the % as I get consistent with 1% ...3%...5%...YES$$$ (what could be? )

Perhaps we should talk.

AttachmentSize
1%&2% charts 24 Sessions, $5, $1k,$2500, $3k,$5k 10K +6MOby JBee 5-18-18.xlsx 115.17 KB
 
triguylm1

JBee, Congratulations on Gold 3 account!

I have a good idea of how much I can do within the risk limitation that we agree to hold as funded traders of the Apiary Investment Fund. So, basically, by next year sometime, I should be able to Trade full time instead of relying so much on set-up systems. I miss out on a lot of short term runs, due to my very busy work schedule.

btw, the attachment said, "Your browser sent a request that this server could not understand." So I can't access your charts.

 
RNM

@JBee, your like brings up the following.
Bad Request
Your browser sent a request that this server could not understand.
Apache/2.4.7 (Ubuntu) Server at apiaryfund.com Port 443

Having just been there and done that just very recently I had the exact samo plan. That said may I suggest you not move past .01 at 1K and .02 at 2.5K and maybe 3@5K. It will be a few months before I get out of the dog house.

 
JayTea

It is a great feeling to be consistently profitable.

But even better is reading threads like these and seeing how one can do much better.
Thank you for taking time to share all of this Triguy!

And since you've helped us so much, of course we will ask for more ;-) Can you share just a little of your hedge strategy? You mentioned one of your methods above but referenced another in your overall description of your trading system. I'm curious how it assists you since you are already fairly accurate in your trade placements.

The only time I used a hedge was to let some trades run awhile longer in Silver 2 without getting risk-stopped out. It worked for what I intended it to do (get to Silver 3 ;-), but I'm not sure that is what you are doing as peeling off the profitable trades can be problematic to your risk profile in a longer trade.

 
triguylm1

JayTea,

Thanks for the vote of confidence, as you know a hedge system works best during "Range Bound" market conditions. Which typically run about 150 to 200 pips in a typical market like USD/CAD has been trading this last 120 days, until this week! So, yes easy to describe past market conditions. Which begs the question, how can one be more profitable in a range bound market and how do you tell how long one will last?

Below is an example of the latest USD/CAD "D1" chart showing May 31 to June 13 price range of about 200 pips for 10 plus days. Also note the previous 10 day cycle range bound market condition of about 120 pips.

Basic entry is when price touches the 200 ema price line on the M5 chart, but use the H2 chart for range bound market showing these 120 to 200 pip ranges between Pivot Highs and Lows. If price is approaching the Pivot high, then begin to look for bearish entries. and tighten SL setting, and place profit target near these S/R prices. Bearish entry is the engulfing candle on the M15 chart or the 3 bar reversal on the M5 chart, or a Doji candle on the H1 chart, or a 3 black crow pattern on the M15 chart. Exit all hedge trades near S/R levels; thus, the swing trade strategy is now in place.

Next, as these trades make profit continue to tighten SL as price approaches the 200 ema price. so please take profit at the 200 ema price and repeat the hedge position in case price bounces off the 200 ema and moves to test the same Pivot High again. Opposite if price went to Pivot Low first.

So, who knows which way price will move first. Will momentum carry price through the 200 ema or will it bounce?

If market is trending then go with the trend, of course!

The H2 and H4 charts help with these intermediate trends therebetween Support and Resistance.

USD/CAD D1 Chart

Looking at trending market currently and expecting next range bound condition to start next week.

Capture Hedge strategy.PNG
 
Rkmintx1

WOW, awesome thread. There's so much good information here to take in and try to digest. I followed this topic and (I'm pretty sure) will be referring back to it quite often. I just advanced to S3, and made the mistake of starting out with to big of lot sizes, combined with a couple bad trades, so now I have to start digging my way out.

Thanks for starting the post Triguy, and thanks to all that commented. Like I said, powerful information here.

Wishing all you Bees prosperous and successful trading

 
alaina.gibbs

this is good information to know. I'm looking forward to getting funded.

 
dannywhite3298

I believe in setting targets and profit goals. My first week in Gold 3 I finished in the Green. Now week 2 I’ll be setting percentage goals, max loss goals and minimum win goals. I took some large losses, however I’m cutting them earlier now that I put my name on a contract. I must trade by my word now. Thank y’all for the example I can follow. Good Fortune to all of You.

 
msdesouza1976

Hi Triguy, thanks for sharing. This gives a realistic view of what to expect in Gold II.

 
sheppo

Just made G2 and happy to be here! However, I think I made it because I'm risk averse instead of profit hungry. When I first started in Apiary (about a hundred years ago) I was trading a few full lots and that didn't work out. I eventually got to the point that I've been trading almost exclusively micros and have been far more successful...at least in terms of getting through the levels.

I've been trading mostly price action and S/R...the only indicator I used to get through S3 and G1 was Apiary Pivots because most of the other stuff kept messing with my head. Question for the group: If you were going to add ONE indicator to my strategy, what would it be? Or is the goal to get away from indicators since they all seem to be trailing?

Thanks!

 
triguylm1

Rkmintx1, Thanks, Even a deep hole can be overcome by simply using small lot size. Please keep in mind how much less stress one has with little risk compared to a full or even a half lot size. You will see this as Gold 1 level requires stats on last 100 wins vs. 100 losses. Also, positive expectancy will move up nicely as profits begin to increase with better probability trade entries.

 
triguylm1

msdesouza1976, Thanks, Yep, gold 2 is a test to manage 1 or 2 positions at a time since the base amount is only $1,000.00. Like I mentioned above. a 0.05 lot size is to much when market will only need to move 20 pips to reach 1% profit or loss! while a 0.01 lot allows about 100 pips to reach a profit or loss of 1%. Better to stay away from the 2% risk limit, because of Price spikes.

 
triguylm1

sheppo, Congratulations on Gold 2. Using one indicator is like driving a car with just looking at the review mirror, How far could one drive on a curvy road without running into something. So, if price is making a bullish run, then the indicators will soon be reading bullish market conditions, and will stay like that until price begins a bearish run, and soon the indicator will follow along the bearish readings. This, way one is chasing the market! Not so profitable. Well, can be in a long term trend.

 
tpackard34

This is going to take a while to absorb. This a great thread!

 
jrmillington

Hey Triguy, thanks for the thread, very eye opening in many ways. I just reached Gold 2 and sometimes wonder how I got there. This spreadsheet shows whether you are consistent or erratic in ones trading. The compounding works for many concepts in life but especially in trading as it allows one to have a clear picture of what can be achieved instead of living in fantasy land and hoping that it will all reach the magic number one is hoping to achieve.

 
triguylm1

tpackard34, Thanks for the comment. I think you should continue the way you're trading, because it's got you to Gold 2 in good time.

If you think about it, a strategy that uses the 200 ema price reference for trend direction will be similar, since price tends to run bullish when price is above the 200 ema, and tends to run bearish when price is below the 200 ema. Next, the swing trader also, is similar, since the reference for R/S levels can be determined from the H2, and H4 charts. The problem for me is trying to figure out which way the market will run first, so will it bounce off the 200 ema or will it gain momentum heading to opposite pivot price zone? So, I figure, I can use a 0.02 lot size allowing over 180 pips of room on the losing side. So when the range from pivot high to pivot low is about 200 pips then my risk is about half of that because entry is 50% near the 200 ema price. I use the trailing stop to reduce risk once price is making a run one way. So, always taking profits in between Pivot high and Pivot low. In other words it's a profit taking zone both ways. Bullish profits are above 200 ema, and bearish profits are below the 200 ema, One can make them 10 pips each way if that's enough profit for the swings.

Keep in mind, this is for range bound conditions, when news events are scheduled for the day, then plan on the break-out set up! And exit hedge trades.

 
triguylm1

JR, Congratulations on Gold 2, Which TF are you using for your 30 sma crossover strategy?

 
Cori

I've just spent an hour reading on this thread and have another 15 comments to go. I've already learned so much more than what I was looking for here (lot percentages in a $1000 account). Thanks so much for the time and energy you share here triguylm1 and everyone else.

 
triguylm1

Thanks, Cori, and congratulations on new Gold 2 level. Start off with only 2 or 3 trades at a time, since your just showing you can trade consistent trading systems. Like the break-out strategy or using S/R zones, etc.

 
Merrick777

I agree with Triguy's comment about keeping lot size at .01. By doing this you can always increase to .02 or .03 if needed to dig yourself out of a hole. Also, as Triguy said, the using a larger lot size can result in greater stress during a trade that's going against you for the moment and thereby cause you to abandon your rules and strategy. I was in Gold 1 for about 4 months because of using .10 lot size. When I entered Gold 2, I reduced it to .01 and was funded in less than 30 days. Lower lot size works

 
RNM

Agreed but once you get the next increase in about 10 days you might consider moving up to .02Q

 
Merrick777

Rookie, as always, you give great pointers. Thanks, I look forward to doing that.

 
oel.locke

triguy,

Your equity curve posted above in May is a thing of beauty, a trophy in itself ! I'm going to hang it on my wall. I love the excel spreadsheet for expectations and compounding too. Your lack of wifi and the set and forget probably contributes to why you are so successful. I remember in Nicolas Darvas' book he repeatedly talked about being away in Europe with only days-old newspapers as his source of information, so perhaps the lack of screen time all day long is really an advantage. It would be cruel indeed if when you return to full-time wifi access your stats went down. (Don't do it !) Tortoise beats hare every time. I am in Silver II so I look up to you in more ways than one.

 
RNM

@oel.locke, I don't think there is much chance that Lesley will allow that to happen. Since he has been in the hive he is one of the best and most consistent technical traders around and with 10 years trading under his belt he has the experience to trade anywhere, as he just showed once again. Just saying.

 
oel.locke

Agreed. No argument here.

 
triguylm1

Thanks Oel.locke!

Thanks Rookie!

Seems like the market is getting ready for another big move tomorrow, as the Bank of England (BoE) is making an interest rate decision and many other reports coming out. See economic calendar.

I plan to use the break-out system with some buffer hedge trades to catch some of the pulse of the market as it begins to expand both ways.

My equity curve took a hit last week while I was out in Africa, and had no WiFi to exit market as price moved toward the SL setting. But still maintain 1.2% per day average for the month.

Capture June equity Curve.PNG
 
RNM

Yep that what I have been saying but no one believes me, not even my pips.

 
triguylm1

Looks like I caught the 30 + pip spike up since, the rate remains 0.5%.So my daily pips are up 1.6% for the day so far.

btw I'm home in Utah.

Capture 147.PNG
 
RNM

Welcome Home Leslie and looks like you have done good! 400pips last century. Congrats.

 
triguylm1

Thanks 007, Perhaps, It's a blessing just to have set and forget set-ups to rely on. Profits, don't have to hit the goal every time, it's just that a goal to accomplish a 1% profit. and if one pushes to hard, then too much risk is put out on the table when market expanses more than normal, and reaches SL settings.

 
tpackard34

Well, much of what I've been learning on this thread will be read and re-read. The conversations about Gold 2 and keeping your sizes low and taking only a few trades at a time should have been better heeded. I wake up this morning to learn I exceeded the 5% limit. I never even approached much over 2% before. I had all micro lots, but 10 positions open and it just never dropped low enough to exit some trades.

I love the info on this thread and will start writing down my rules to follow. Apparently, I need to study up on hedging as well. I understand the concept but the practice. I love the education and even the discipline required but this one stung a little bit. Confidence was increasing with my account.

Will the positive expectancy and maintaining averages iron itself out in the next 100 trades or are they ongoing throughout Gold 2?

Triguy- stay close by!

 
tpackard34

My destruction...

Gold 2 Crash.PNG
 
sunnychow888

Hi triguylm1,

Nice to meet you.
Thank you for sharing your experience. I saw your trading result which included so many different Forex pairs, i am so surprised that you could trade many symbols in same time. Do you just use H1 time frame for entry market. You can monitor many symbols in same time, and the accuracy rate is not bad, Do you have any Dashboard indicator for signal?

Best regard,

Sunny

 
Rkmintx1

I'm seeing comments talking of making 1,000's of pips (in some cases) and I'm trying to reconcile this. I'm assuming that requires multiple positions. i.e. - 10 positions at 100 pips each would be 1,000 pips on the trade, however, 10 positions at 0.01 lot size would put you back up to the equivalent of trading 1.0 lot size, which defeats the strategy of trading small. Would appreciate any advise or clarification on this.

Thanks

Russell

 
Rkmintx1

Oops, I was off by decimal point, I meant to say *the equivalent of trading 0.10 lot size

 
triguylm1

5.5% profit last 2 days, while working full time!

Thanks tpackard34, Sounds like one of my days in Gold 2. Your not alone on that, also, market most likely went in the direction you wanted after the 5% loss. Right? So, frustrating when that happens.

Thanks Sunny for your comment, seems like I just know from experience how each currency correlates with each other. I use spot gold as an indicator for my reference of daily S/R "and" pivot high and pivot low reference of previous days PA. Also, with experience I get a sense of how much the market will move on an average day, and have a good idea of news events that will expand the markets to a larger Fibonacci reading than average. I check H2 and H4 charts for intermediate S/R zones, and still most of these provides just an estimate of where price may run up and down. My hedge system is used during range bound market conditions which can be seen once price has been in the price range for at least 2 days, so, usually range bond markets last about 9 to 10 days, but depends on news events coming up.

Rkmintx1, Thanks for the tough question, since, the risk tolerance varies with each trader. Meaning, one can have a base account of $10,000.00 and may trade 50 positions of 0.01 lot size trades, and have an equivalent risk of 0.50 lot size of 1 position in the market. The thing to keep in mind is how far will price move against the position before the 2% risk limit rule is reached. (Thus: a 0.50 lot size with a 40 pip price move is 2% of the $10,000.00 account) If 0.5 lot @ $5.00 per pip multiplied by 40 pips = $200.00 Thus: $10,000.00 x 2% = $200.00 This, of course depends on the currency pair and also one needs to account for the spread and any slippage on entry and exit transactions.

I trade that much risk from time to time, but only when I'm in my hedge system during range bound market conditions, or swing trade near 200 ema price. I would rather run 3 trades at a time using a ladder system to trade during trending markets. Also, I bank 3 to 4 times the profits during range bound markets.

Below is an example of just my silver positions for Thursday and again Friday placing buy orders during Asian session and continue to book profits and place more limit orders near support.

Silver Chart showing Thursday and Friday bullish trend and take profit zone. Keep in mind profit targets were reached before 14:00 GMT

Bullish Silver Market Near Support.PNG Capture 148.PNG Capture 149.PNG Capture 150.PNG Capture 151.PNG
 
RNM

Leslie, U da man, That chart is investing.com, yes? What tool/indicator did you use to make the zones?

 
kbrown

I think there is a lot to be said about setting up your day and then letting it run.

I have had much better luck that way. You seem to putt more into planing for profit instead of "lets see what it does"

Sitting at the screen all day makes you much more susceptible to emotion.
Most of the time that means when a trade has be going against you and you finally cant take any more and book the loss. Then of course it moves back in your direction.

I will definitely be returning to this thread over and over Thanks!

 
triguylm1

Thanks, Ed, Perhaps, this is one of the toughest questions to ask; "what tool/indicator". . . working or not for placing trade near S/R zones? Using one indicator alone is good, but using 3 and 4 indicators together is a better probability for trending market; However, when price is in consolidation, then the readings are skewed, and since the readings are based on past price history, then they lag and one finds themselves chasing the market. Right?

However, one can anticipate the market by using the ADX indicator, also, the MACD readings can increase the probability. and RSI will confirm the MACD readings. Use CCI to confirm momentum during the trend. Use candle formations (3 bar reversal, Doji, 3 black crow, Engulfing, etc.) to catch reversal entry as the ADX begins to make the crossover signal.

Predicting the Daily Pivot high and Pivot Low is easy in the range bound market, so, use the H2 and H4 chart to confirm if the last few days have confirmed trend has gone flat. Keep in mind trend can resume, so use one direction trading during the range bound condition so when trend resumes your trade is on the right side of the market.

Keep in mind I also have a hedge system as described above, when price touches the 200 ema price during these side way range bound conditions. I do this system because I don't know which way price will run first. Will price bounce off the 200 ema or will momentum carry price through it on the way to the other S/R zone.

 
triguylm1

KBrown, Thanks for your comment, you said, "You seem to putt more into planing for profit instead of 'lets see what it does' ".

Indeed I have found the market gives and takes, so if I can profit when its giving, then I can book profits every day.

Example: Simulated $10,000.00 account: I have launched a 46 day gold position when the Feds announced the 1.75% interest rate on Dec. 13, 2017. Price went up 1,198 pips in 46 days to Jan. 29th, 2018. Entry was 1239.66 12/13/17 and exit 1358.10 on 1/29/18, in my funded account I would setup daily bullish positions of 21 pip pull-back during consolidation phase, and take profit 26 pips above previous day pivot high, thus making much more in profit then the equivalent of letting one run. These price targets were made by using the Bill Williams "fractal" measurement. So I calculated the % of change in the daily average bullish trend movement, the change % of Pivot High and Low and drew the bullish channel line to forecast price zones.

Does that make sense?

 
RNM

Leslie, I'm glad you are back and thanks for the detailed reply.
I make good use of the CCI for direction, ATR for range and CCI center line while using the 200SMA as an overall sanity checker of which way is loose. I generally don't use any hedging preferring to close a loser and reenter if the signals are present for a new trade.
but not to fond of ADX nor the MACD.
And I so glad you didn't say Fibos...

AS I just started a new training programme to rid my trading at least of my worst psychological problem of NO PATIENCE and wait for my trade setups. I only use a few patterns, rectangles for consolidation zones, channels for breakouts, triangles, wedges and the three bar candle reversals, Doji and spinners for decision time to wait and see.

I made another methodology change as well to not take any trade which has less than a 50-60 pip target.
To facilitate this I have added Bands and replaced the center line with the 7-period HMA. Saw this in the Nav group By Richard and I think its the best usage of bands to date.

In your reply to KBrown, you mention the Williams fractual and your calculations, does the Williams % not work for you?

 
triguylm1

Ed, thanks for sharing your new adjustments in the rules. Or should I say "guidelines". LOL, Like trading rules don't have exceptions!

I mean really, how often will these indicators really give one any more confidence than we all ready have before the position is entered. And same with exit strategy, does the rules really help guide the price to the target. "No" since price action may take days to finally reach a profit target. Right?

Bill Williams taught a theory about the chaotic nature of PA, he compared price like how a river will run from point A to point B but the path would always deviate from a straight line to a fractal of 1.26. This number represents an enormous amount of data that was used in the calculation. So, by using the fractal indicator, one can begin to see how this applies to PA. Much like the "Bell Curve" when price runs 2 deviations away from the 200 sma price, then the probability of price reversing becomes greater, and will reverse when conditions causing the run begin to change.

The bullish channel is calculated using H4 chart. the degree of the angle depends on higher highs and higher lows per time cycle.

One could just simply draw a slope using the pivot highs for the top of the channel and draw another slope using the pivot lows for the bottom of the channel. Both ways will help determine forecast for entry and exit prices.

Note the EUR/USD H1 chart below: Showing bearish channel and short term range bound market. Next move should run bearish! But who knows?

Best wishes!

EURUSD H1 Chart June 23.PNG
 
RNM

Thanks, LOL might be mo accurate as I am attempting to change the portion of my personality that will not wait for a trade setup. After all, I have had about 3/4 of a century to learn it the "NOW" syndrome. However, failure is not an option as that would mean almost a certain Forex death.

I will look into the Williams fractures and yes I do draw the channels and continue to increase my TF until I have at least a 60 pip target then using the CCI to slice the bread.

You mentioned the EURUSD. The other change I have made is my weekly Strength/weakness spreadsheet. Using Barchat info for the analysis and Investing for the sentiment info. I use EU for my base correlation so that's where the 100.0% comes from. In this case, the short 3day is 96% and Longer term is 72% a long-term indicator confluence of the trend continuing. The 33 - 99 is maxed hourly pips and daily pips movement from Mataf.

EUR USD 1 100.0% 96% Sell 72% Strong Sell 33 - 99 Strong Weakest Continuation Supported
H, D, W, M SB SS SS N

https://www.investing.com/analysis/eurusd-downtrend-is-intact-200327079

Thanks again for the reply, fractals are a big interest for me. Alas, another item another my todo list. But I think it may be as useful as a weighted Alpha percentage.

 
triguylm1

Ok, not sure how many more days in a row I can be profitable, but I have reached 60 trading days in a row. Thanks, mostly to being on the right side of the market when trending, and by using hedge system in range bound markets.

Below is my current trade style with the Silver market, showing a continuation of my Silver chart, beginning on Thursday.

Currently running trades both bullish and bearish!

Capture Silver 3 day Analysis.PNG
 
RNM

Leslie, very, very good. It seems to me each trade starts out a new individual winner or loser chance. And while we can't have all winners individually I don't see why you can't have all profitable days as each day is made up of the individual trades stacked.

 
triguylm1

Exactly, 60 days in a row average 1.2% profit

Maybe hard to believe, but even on my off day as you may have noticed on my equity curve I still went positive by the time the day ended.

Capture June 26 equity curve.PNG
 
triguylm1

I only risk 0.02 lot size most of the time which allows for 290 + SL if needed.

 
RNM

Not hard for me to believe with your trading acumen.
My D1 is very long in setting up maybe I leave it to my LT account and drop down to H4 for a few daily trades with a smaller target while waiting for the larger setups.

 
triguylm1

So again another 1.8% profitable day # 61. Boya!

Had to sweat this one out as price expanded just pass support near 16.1900

Below chart shows continuation of range bound system I'm using with Spot Silver market.

Capture 152.PNG Capture 4 Day Silver Range Bound system.PNG
 
RNM

It was a bit of a wishy-washy market today. We did the eEURUSD most of the morning... When I quit after 2.5 hours of OT made a few pips, 201.6 and just over 0.31% risk. But you talk about boring... just sort of watching paint dray. Leslie, I just love your trading, along with a select few other of course but you're in the top five!!! on my hit parade...:)

 
tpackard34

Triguy,

That's really good, consistent trading. Considering your percentage is staying above what many folks target (1-2%), what more can you ask for? You're taking what the market gives you. Well done! Keep posting your charts and results. Maybe I will get it!

 
triguylm1

Thanks tpackard34

Here is another example of "Price Range" of about 30 pip target on the Silver Market. So I have figured price movement on the silver market typically will move about 15 to 30 pips in any given day from pivot low to pivot high. After a trend move, then I can estimate the next price range. Looking at how tariff wars are pushing stocks down, thus pushing gold and silver down, then Monday night I notice how price had dropped to the 30 pip low off Fridays pivot low. So, as price began to move bullish around 0:00 GMT, then I started buying 5 positions at a time every time market pushed up 3 to 4 pips.

See example below. As price reversed at the 30 pip price target. "Price Range" Trading H1 Chart XAG/USD "Silver"

Capture Silver Range Trading.PNG Capture scale in.PNG Capture 157.PNG
 
triguylm1

Time to set up a Hedge Position as Price reaches 30 pip price range top.

Any one every have positive trades going both ways at the same time?

Here's an example!! The "Ironman" way

So the M5 Silver Chart Showing bullish and bearish "positive" trades.

Capture Hedge Trade Positive factor.PNG
 
Mike Smith

That's it. The 'Statistics' tab must not designed correlated to the BEELINE tasks very well. The 'last 100' trades tab says my avg win > avg loss is true. And the 'last 1000 trades' tab says it's greater too. But there is no 'last 200' trades tab. So how can I see what it looks like so I can fix it to satisfy BEELINE?

 
RNM

Mike see my reply to 1st time you asked the question back in "random walk not"

 
triguylm1

Also, you may notice that it takes a few hours for the Bee line task to reload the statistic, perhaps by logging out of Apiary may help that process.

You may find that has not updated, meaning those times when your stats are not correlating.