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High Probability / Quick Profit Trades using Longer Time Frames

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High Probability / Quick Profit Trades using Longer Time Frames

Scalping the Longer Time Frames

1.) Set all charts to 4H default.
2.) Put 3 indicators on the charts...
    a.) EMA 9
    b.) SMA 20
    c.) SMA 50
3.) Watch for the EMA9 to cross the SMA20.*
4.) When 2 candles have closed solidly above or below the EMA9 after the crossing, look for alignment of the SMA50 on the Daily, 4H, 1H and 15M charts. The alignment is very important!
5.) By looking at these 4 charts, you should see a solid trend movement. If you don't...skip the trade. Otherwise you'll get jerked around like a fish on a hook!
6.) Go to the 15 minute chart and look for a pullback toward the EMA9 for the best entry point. Aggressive traders may want to enter at the market, but you will often get taken for a ride in the wrong direction if you jump in right away.
7.) Set your Stop Loss at the SMA20 or 50, whichever you are more comfortable with and adjust your lot size based on the size of your Stop Loss.
8.) You can use an Oscillator for determining your exit point. Personally, I am only looking for 10 - 20 pip movements. My personal goal is 20 pips per day. Eventually, my hope is to trade large enough lot sizes to make a living from these small, but High Probability trades.


I am looking for High Probability, quick trades. I have been trading for a good number of years, and have had way too many trades reverse course while I waited for it to hit my 50 - 100 pip target, just so I could get that 3 - 5R gain. At this point, I only need a couple hundred dollars per day to make a living from trading, so if I can get 20 pips at $15 per pip...I'm good.

These trades come along several times a day. I check my charts every 4 hours when the 4H candles close, and set up my trades within a few minutes and then go about life without micromanaging the trades.

* Note: The best trades come when the MA crossovers are as close to a 90 degree impact as possible. If the two MA converge together gradually, I pass on the trade. Look for the crossovers to be between an "X" and a "+". When the 9 and 20 cross the 50, watch for increased momentum and larger movements.

Thu, 08/10/2017 - 1:06pm

Thanks! I'll take a look at this. I've been trying to come up with something similar using Todd's EMA based 'no name strategy'. It uses 8, 34, and 89 EMAs. I haven't added the 'allignment' requirements though. So far, I've been seeing a lot of the 'convergence' type cross overs that are usually not very good indicators.


Thanks, looks interesting, Will try sometime and give feedback.


I printed your comments and will give this a try. Trying lots of new strategies and sometimes getting hammered badly, sometimes having success. I feel like a teenager trying to gain independence from a parent! It is something we want very badly, but sometimes need to "cling" close to home. This has been challenging mentally. Many have success like BruceWayne...he is amazing but not sure I could emulate that. Like you, I want be consistent and grow the pips daily! It can be done....
BTW, I have had some mild success using the Bollinger Bands and RSI. Simple, 70% effective. Sometimes I get caught in the updraft or downdraft of a moving Bollinger Band.....simplicity is best for me! Thanks for sharing!


Thanks, I will give it a shot.


like to ask a question. what kind of alignment do you expect when you say "Look for alignment of the SMA50 on the Daily, 4H, 1H and 15M charts. The alignment is very important! ???


Great strategy, I will try it
MA resonate nicely with me
happy trading


Nice strategy; will give it try - thanks for sharing. Do you have any trading stats that you can also share?


Good for which of the pairs?

look for alignment of the SMA50 on the Daily, 4H, 1H and 15M charts. The alignment is very important!

You mean Price to be above/below the price in all the TF?

Jeff W

Interesting strategy. I can't wait to check it out.

Charles Moeller


I just started using a similar strategy a week ago that has a shorter time period.
It uses HMAs for smoother curves.

My parameters are:
HMAs 32, 16, & 8
Time frames: 15M, 5M, & 1M side by side charts, each with a 4 hour workspace.

Scan favorite pairs for continuing price action above (or below) the 32HMA in all three TFs.
(There will have been a crossing of the 8HMA and 16HMA on the 15M, followed by PA crossing the 32HMA.)
Do not trade during high spreads.
Enter with stop & limit orders. Make PA come to you by 1 to 2 pips.
Scale in and scale out.
Exit at topping or bottoming, or a re-crossing of the 8HMA & 16HMA, if not already out.
Exit if the trade goes against you, or any time, as there will be lots of opportunities.
Work toward consistency.

This morning, for example, in AUD/USD, the conditions for entry were met by 0625 (MDT)
for a gain of 25p over the next hour.


Another good trading plan! Thanks to all.


Thanks for sharing this, I will explore it when the market opens back up.