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Kevin Pyne's Trading Room

 
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kevinpyne

Kevin Pyne's Trading Room

Hi Apiary Bees!! Kevin Pyne here! I am starting this thread for those who watch or are interested in watching my style of day trading. My trading room is on the calendar on Friday's at 9am MDT/11amEDT. Kind of a slow time to day trade but hey, it worked today just fine. For those in the room this morning, this is how it turned out today as the markets made the pullback I was expecting in the half hour after the trading room. IN the beginning of June this account was around 5800. We'll keep track of the results of this account as time goes on, and hopefully get it to keep growing as we trade together.

 

This link is to a previous Money and Risk Management class where I explain my pyramid layering. 

Money Management class: start at the 21 minute mark for the trading part and explanation of the pyramid
 
For more information/videos to watch me do this in real-time, please reach out to my email kevinpyne@apiaryfund.com. The main point you want to remember is RISK CONTROL. Some call this the P3 Process, a brief explanation:
 
1. Protection (of capital) - you MUST clearly define your risk before you trade, as part of your set-up and trade routine.
2. Price Cycles - finding the average price cycle of the pair, on the 1HR and the 15Min and 1Min
3. Pivot Points - Where the market has pivoted in the past, may be indicative of where it may pivot in the future. 
 
Good luck! and Keep on trading on!!
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Fri, 07/10/2020 - 1:56pm
 
Rookie

Thanks, Kevin. a very gracious idea! really appreciate this new thread.

 
mike_smith

As I'm kind of a newbie at apiaryfund myself, it's great to follow along with this new trainer. Mr Pyne not only has a very professional approach to trading and training but professional working experience as a broker. Thank you Apiaryfund. I look forward to listening to your classes Kevin.

I like listening to Kevin's classes because I need to learn risk AND control ;). I tried out kevin's strategy and was making progress but changed it suddenly hoping to get faster results and instantly I was -300 pips. That's the difference of trading a proven plan. And master control and risk.

 
Norma Jenner

woohoo!

 
triguylm1

Thanks Kevin,

I also encourage traders to use less leverage to start each trading day.

Meaning less stress equals more profit, since you don’t have to book losses before the price cycle is completed.

 
Norma Jenner

If the primary objective for a $1000 accnt is not-only consistent profitability,
but also requires Avg W > Avg L,
is there an Excel chart where it could optimize first by Avg W/Avg L and secondarily by consistent (>60%) profitability,
for different inputs of PC and TC, for distance between layers, number of entries per layer, and a choice of whether to close any level if price goes two levels beyond it
?

TY TY

 
Rookie

Great question,

Kevin has a spreadsheet to do this but not with the layers, However, if it were modified to add a target the layers could be competed by a formula, (not by me).

This application could also be applied to Kevin's fix-it pyramid trade with the addition of scaling the sizing.

 
triguylm1

FYI, since gold is not available to trade on Alveo, then use USD/JPY as the currency pair that follows gold’s market sentiment, but of course XAU/USD is opposite correlation to USD/JPY (configuration of denominator).

Note how gold is testing the yearly high lately, thus, bullish sentiment with no solid resistance to break through. Like I posted last year. Gold is likely to move much higher, moving into 1,700.00 prices and likely moving into 1,800.00 prices. Now that prediction is fulfilled.

USD/JPY:

Moving forward USD/JPY is looking to test bearish support near 106.130, currently ended on a D1 bearish candle top 107.180 and bottom 106.650 fading to 106.991 (34 pip fade or 64% retrace).

EUR/USD:

Moving forward EUR/USD is opposite looking to test pivot high about 120 pips from Friday’s close. Note, support is about 120 pips below Friday’s close of 1.12982
This gives one a 50/50 chance of being right, since price will likely run a small bearish direction before heading bullish to test the top. Why bearish first? Because bearish candle is going to get most traders getting on board the bearish trend, and then head up toward all the new stop loss orders. In other words I don’t follow the initial trend going into the new week. It turns out to be the wrong direction almost every time. Besides that the spread cost are too large.

As far as those working the 1K account. Risk allowance is only 0.20 lot total. Allowing only 6 trades of .01 lots to hold positions to 83 pips before reaching the 5% risk limit (0.06 lot max x 83 pips x 10 factor = $49.80). So 49.80/1,000 = 4.98%

So. When doing a pyramid layer: each layer is spaced with 18 pip spacing as follows:

1 trade market open price
2 trades 18 pips against
3 trades is max. 36 pips against
Hold for an additional 18 pips (-54 pips)
(1 trade -54 pips + 2 trades - 72 pips + 3 trades -54 pips = -180 pips)
180 pips x .01 lot x 10 factor = -$18.00 or about 1.8%

Compare to wining results aim to earn 1.5 to 1 ratio: thus, 81 pip profit target (54 x 1.5 = 81)

1 trade at market earns 81 pips
2 trades 18 pips (discount) earns 99 pips each
3 trades 36 pip (discount) earns 117 pips each
(81 + 99 + 99 + 117 + 117 + 117 = 630 pips)
630 pips x 0.01 lot x 10 factor = $63.00 or a positive 6.3% profit.

 
Rookie

This is Great Stuff. TY

and it's not in a blue or red spray can...:)

 
ctjk1

Hello Mr. Kevin! Really nice of you to offer this. Thank you.
we met last October at boot camp where you were very helpful and generous with your time. I was trading only Gold then and you showed an interest in what I called 'pic-math'. for lack of a better term. I was hoping you might be in the know if UAX/USD will be available to us anytime soon as I expect it to press right through 1800 to 1905.(???)

Thanks again Kevin, your time is appreciated.

C

 
mike_smith

Wow triguylm1, you know your pyramiding.

 
triguylm1

Thanks Mike,

I think price will move against one's position most of the time for a while even when going with the correct trend, it takes patience and confidence in the set up. In a way, price has to move with small counter-trend runs to create discount pricing, and add confusion to those chasing the market. This is one reason the pyramid helps use small risk while building layers as price whipsaws, giving (discounts) to trend positions, yet the hedge trade would see profit, while the price is in the counter-trend cycle.

Adding the hedge position will make things complicated, and may end up in a loss anyway as correct trend continues. So, it's still unlikely I add hedge positions until the original positions are far into positive territory; thus, locking in profit no mater which way price swings next.

Also, since Alveo resets the daily risk, then it's a way to clear off all the losing trades and begin a new trading day in the positive. So, in a way it's like stepping out of the market and entering in at a better price. If one is trading this directional strategy, then eventually the results will continue to run positive day after day as price continues to trend in one's favor. That's when I was able to have a winning streak booking over 250 winners in a row.

Quote by me on my Part time funded trader thread:

"So how did you get so many + trades in a row with your idea that when price moves against you get out and try again until the momentum shifts back?"

Here is an example of what happens for me, since I wait until Price is in a strong buy zone near support and a strong sell zone near the top at resistance:

Monday after I booked 9% profit on the gold and silver positions from selling on Friday's pivot High. I began to buy Silver and gold near Monday's Pivot low and as priced moved up the positions became profitable, then later price began to run flat and I had to bring in the Stop Loss setting just under the consolidation channel, well as you know price dropped again taking all my trades out of the market, but with a 3% profit for the day. Then I tried again on Tuesday, again price moved up so I had about 3.55% profits when price again ran flat, so I again I just took profits at the market this time. And again later on price dropped even lower, so then I began to scale in more positions each time price moved up. I had 35 positions running bullish before the market pushed up to 350 pips in gold that day. So this week alone I had over 85 trades all positive, and some over 350 pip profit.

So in this case I waited for price to reach strong buy zone near the 30 day pivot low and as price took out my positions as price turned against these bullish positions, then I took the profits and waited again until price moved back into the strong buy zone. I felt like selling will not pay off for I was looking to stay bullish, so I didn't take any sell positions on Monday or Tuesday or Wednesdays. I finally took on sell Trades on Thursday as price reached the daily pivot high up past the strong sell zone". (Oct. 2018, p. 1).

 
Rookie

Lindsey, So much wisdom,

"adding the hedge position will make things complicated"
I could not agree more, Except it special situations I would suggest if a hedge is desired to use a different uncorrelated pair to offset the potential loss.
BTW Baby Pips has an excellent set of lessons on both correlation and hedging.

FX Corralation - Babby Pips.PNG
 
triguylm1

Thanks Rookie,

I have mentioned before how one can use USD/JPY along with EUR/JPY to trade in hedge scenario's within a price range pattern. Certainly, I have mentioned to trade these going bearish as Gold and silver futures are running away on a bullish trend.

Metals seem to be gaining momentum as speculation numbers are increasing, see speculative stats. "COT" Commitment of traders (speculative positions). https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm Provides July 7, 2020 results

I'm also seeing increasing number of commercial positions increase on the hedge side (shorts)

Is the bubble near term?

Capture gold COT July 7.PNG
 
broslansky

@triguy,

Would you help us to understand the COT, please? I see that you highlighted 421,016. What is the significance?

 
triguylm1

That first column is mostly speculation, "Non-Commercial" reporting. Compare that to the big boys "Commercial" we see they expect price to spike significantly with a large sell off. moving all those long positions into a "SHORT SQUEEZE" scenario.

The short squeeze happens when price reverses heading for every single stop loss order. and every time one tries to capture a lower price and entering a long position, price will continue to drop toward those new stop loss orders.

Since commercial traders can hedge with a massive amount of funds to back up the positions, it's most likely they win the battle of bulls vs bears!

 
broslansky

So, are you comparing the non-commercial longs of 337,030 vs the commercial short of 421,016?

Is this a suggestion that a bear market is building?

 
triguylm1

It certainly looks like commercial trades on the long side have been taking profit off the table, since price is spiking out of last months price range. Notice the date; July 7 when price jumped out of the price range and reached 1,8001.00 that day. Plus it was a Friday end of week.

It is possible they will jump back in with long positions if price returns to support near $1,600.00 Keep in mind that's over 2000 pips. Keep in mind these commercial positions are futures which expire around the 15th of each contract month. So Gold has August, October, December, Feb. April, June contracts each year.

See futures at ino.com

https://quotestest.ino.com/exchanges/contracts.html?r=NYMEX_GC

 
anthonyrfante

Love it

 
robunited

Very cool Kevin, good to see a thread from a Trade Room teacher on the forum!

Hope it will be consistent in updates! ;-)

 
kevinpyne

Great discussion here folks! I love the thread!

Another point I wanted to clarify with my trading is that I'm really looking for the opportunity to sell into resistance and buy into support, on the 1 Hour pivots. Most of the time we see retracements or bounces back into the range, enough to capture profit, especially if we structure the layering/scaling correctly.

@norma - I actually have a spreadsheet that one of our fellow bees sent me. I'll have to show it next time. It is very carefully constructed.

@ctjk1 - I do remember you from the bootcamp! I hope you're doing well! I have no idea when our precious XAU/USD will come back to Alveo, but I'll be shouting from the rooftops when it does. My best days came from trading XAU.

I am on the Triguy Train! ;) (Awesome stuff Lindsey! Keep it coming!) I watch the COT report (actually watch the COT index put together by Larry Williams in TradeStation, it also has the small speculators and large speculator numbers based off the same report) and we're seeing lots of selling of the big boys (commercials) into this rally while Open interest coming down, that's typically bearish before a nice big up move. Seasonally, August is a very good month for the metals and Gold has been the strongest so I would expect a pullback the last couple of weeks of July before the next plunge to potentially 1900. But, I try not to care about being right, because lots of time I still lose money if I'm right.

Thanks again everyone! Keep on trading on!

I'd rather learn how to be wrong in my analysis and still make money! That's a much better feeling! To learn how...come to the trading room and see! ;)

 
Troy_C

Thanks Kevin! I always learn from your classes. I believe this thread will be an additional tool to gain important trading insights.

 
mike_smith

"I'd rather learn how to be wrong in my analysis and still make money! That's a much better feeling! To learn how...come to the trading room and see! ;)"

I hope it is what I learn. Thanks Mr Pyne.

 
dannywhite3298

It looks like Kevin is running a successful Pyramid Scheme here. ( humor intended) I hope I can learn this. Great material in here.

Good Fortune to You,
Danny

 
kevinpyne

Another example successful pyramid "scheme" today which was started in today's Trader on the Street class, shorting the GBP/USD as it rallied. (I'm not sure if we'll get one tomorrow during my trading room. I'd like to try to post one each week)

Protection: Risk was set at 2.5%, we got to about 1.5% down at about -900 pips before the market finally turned back down after layer 7, which is usually my "fix-it" layer.

Price Cycle: the 1Hour chart distance between pivots, average price cycle, was at about 35 pips. 7 layers, about 7-9 pips between the first 5 layers, then about 10-12 between the last two was a good enough spread to safely build a position.

Pivots: The market pivoted at the same price level, bullish pivoting into bearish, just as it had on July 8th and July 9th. A previous pivot preceded today's top resistance pivot. A thing of beauty to behold.

It's all about risk control. I pre-planned if the market would go against me about 50 pips, it went 70 pips against (nearly 2 price cycles on the 1Hr chart) and I was still in the game, still in control and had the nerve to wait for it to come back to my targets. If it had broken the 1.2630 price level I would have hit the eject button. Luckily, it stayed below. Sadly, it came ALL the way back to my original entry which would have yielded another 400 pips had I held all the way down, but I rarely wait for a 100% retracement. So, I took the loss on the first three layers, thus...

..making money even though I was wrong on my original short bias. Always a nice way to end the trading day.

Successful Pyramid 07.16.2020.PNG
 
dannywhite3298

I am truly amazed. It dawned on me after watching Kevin's Money & Risk Management Class on Wed.15th. that when the market turns against me, I lose big. When the market turns against Kevin he is profitable.

It's all about minimizing risk and building positions so that when the market does turn your way, you are building profits as it turns. You don't go all in at first but build positions as the market turns in your favor. Thank you Kevin.

Good Fortune to You,
Danny

 
mike_smith

@kevinpyne,

"Price Cycle: the 1Hour chart distance between pivots, " do you mean the red or yellow pivot.

The example you showed above took 5 hours to get out of. The technique you're calling pyramiding older traders like myself just refer to as wobbling. The point I want to make is because you need 5+ hours to wobble out, I have called it in the past 'trend wobbling'. As opposed to scalp wobbling, which only takes 1 hour to wobble out of losses.

"I am truly amazed. It dawned on me after watching Kevin's Money & Risk Management Class on Wed.15th. that when the market turns against me, I lose big. When the market turns against Kevin he is profitable."

I would not go as far to say I'm amazed he's profitable. He's taking 5 hours to wobble out of loss. If he doesn't, just like he said he'll hit eject. It shouldn't be surprising the more time you try to wobble out of a loss, the more you will be able to do so.

Anyway my question to kevin is 1) why do none of the orders you enter have stops on them. Isn't one of the requirements to advance in funding using stops? 2) what will you do if your pyramiding needs to last twice as long sometimes. Is spending 10 hours at a time still viable to you?

dannywhite3298's comment above definitely made me understand what I find amazing in Shawn's Trading Room isn't he can get out of loss, but it is his accurate recognition of price action within a one hour session.

 
Norma Jenner

Kevin, did you have 8 layers of SL figured at < -2.5%? This was scary after 6 layers. You mentioned a spread sheet to help w layer distances and SL/ayers and numbers of layers? I may have misunderstood. Tx. This is where I'm getting whupped.

 
PIPDawg

Fantastic to get insight of one who has progressed into a funded account! Thanks for letting us peep in......

 
kevinpyne

Hey traders!! A slooooow moving, grinding, marching-market that had no substantial pullback as I shorted the GBPUSD made for a loss day today. However, the way I structured my trades with the pyramid, I feel like I lost the minimum, it was a GOOD loss.

Again, my purpose is to do whatever I can to control what I can control, my risk. I cannot control the direction of the market or even the outcome of my trades. But, how I control my risk, manage my trades, allows me to have more options AND potentially lose LESS than what the market wants to take from me.

So I mentioned my Hierarchy of taking losses, and I forgot one, there is a TIME stop too, and it comes up on Friday afternoons. I do not like hold intraday trades over the weekend. So if it was any other day, I likely would've been ok holding this into this evening. But since it's Friday, the 2:30pm MDT is the time stop and that was triggered (by me) today.

Hopefully seeing a negative day is just as helpful, if not more, than a successful day. How we manage losses is an important trading skill as well. How to loss pips well.

Have a great weekend traders!

@MikeSmith- I answered your questions in the trading room today, refer to the recording this weekend! Thanks for all your comments! And that goes for everyone, thank you for your contributions!

"Take what you can! Give nothing back!" (We be Market Pirates!)

Trading Room Results 7.17.2020.PNG Successful Non-profitable Pyramid 07.17.2020.PNG
 
broslansky

@kevin,

I like the idea of hard stops. I also like how you identified a time stop. If the market is going against a trader, most of have learned to just drop the trade. However, we would all benefit to learn when time is no longer on our side and we need to close shop and enjoy the weekend!

Good call!

 
FrankS

With all respect, after many years of trading stocks, options, and futures, I still cannot accept the words that any of us can really "control risk." And for me, it's more than just a play on words.

Forex, despite being a less-regulated market, is no different, in my opinion. In fact, I propose that the risk of loss within the forex market is greater due to its wild-west persona and multiple Big Bank manipulations on a global scale. And that explains why the tactics which drive the risks are plentiful.

Here is what I do know we have the power to do and MUST do: We must always protect and/or redirect ourselves and our positions' exposure away from all that is risky within the forex markets. So, regardless of the tactics being used, there is no such thing as us controlling risk. In other words, the risks are inherent, as they are defined by tactics of others with bigger pockets than us; and the owners of those pockets do not intend to lose; plus they are very good at what they do.

 
mike_smith

@kevinpyne,

I thought it would be easier for you to reply in your forum, but thanks. I'm a big fan of yours and Rex's risk classes. I just can't catch them live due to the time zone differences.

 
tubamirabilis

Fascinating thread! Thanks Kevin! I will definitely be attending your classes soon! Your scaling-in style looks a little Martingalesque to me. Great if your perceived price structure holds. Scary if it doesn't!

 
Norma Jenner

tubamirabilis, even if it doesn't, this is not scary because max % risk is firm and set before beginning. When you have a chance to attend Kevin's classes and review those videos, you'll see why the final stop keeps trouble at bay, whatever the build technique.

If folks move a final stop, the scary thing is not the technique, it is the abuse/lack of discipline. Only those who don't use good rules should be scared. When pain gets high enough, they change or quit, depending on their ability to take responsibility, their ability to plan thoughtfully, their ability to evaluate results thoughtfully and their good fortune in having teaching available from so many fine, fine Apiary traders/instructors

Those who do use their rules, and need a higher win % and higher expectancy, describing myself, need to work more, i guess, on S/R separation of levels and TP amounts.

 
cody3

Very worthwhile class even with slow moving markets. It gave you more time to explain your strategy.

 
triguylm1

tubamirabilis, I get your point. If one starts off with too much leverage, the more risk! So, like Norma is saying, know the amounts of risk per price movement.

My example above explains a typical amount of risk for those with only a 1K account. So layering on only a max. of 6 trades lasting up to 83 pips before a 1.8% risk is hit and booked for a loss. But how many times will price move against a position if the set-up is hitting 87% winning rates? And the other losses are taken a much lower pip number as hard stop orders are around 28 pips more often than not.

I have 87% win rate with average 1.60 to 1 win ratio. That comes from following price range entry/exit strategies, using larger TF thus; creating short term swing trades some lasting a few hours while some last several days.

 
ScrubFree

Hi Kevin, Thanks for posting here in the forums! I noticed your definition of "Pyramiding" is a bit different from the way I see it typically used... usually I've seen it mean adding to a winning positions to increase the ultimate profits.

I have stopped using the method you are advocating as a result of some painful losses. I'd be curious on your thoughts as to what I see as huge weaknesses to this technique:

1) When you are right, your payoff is small - your smallest exposure to the market happens when you are correct

2) Your largest market exposure occurs when you are in a losing position - being wrong just means doubling down on a losing position

3) If it never turns around within your risk limits, you must take a huge loss at some point - which at least in my experiences have wiped out the gains I made when the trades worked out

4) There are pretty significant psychological impacts to holding losing positions that just keep getting larger

I know lots of people here at Apiary are very successful doing this, including Shawn. I am definitely not Shawn though :-) My experience is that this type of trading works really well until the day it blows out past your point of no return and you have to take a whopper of a loss on the day. If you're like me and you don't have the discipline to take that loss, you end up riding it till you finally get risked out - because at that point the loss is SO devastatingly large I just can't bare to take it.

I know every trader is different and we all have to find our own style that works for us... what has been working for me the last couple months is cutting my losses early and trying to build into my winning positions (which I haven't yet learned to do well at all). I can say though that since I have stopped holding losing trades my trading stress has dropped to crazy low levels.

 
robunited

FrankS "With all respect, after many years of trading stocks, options, and futures, I still cannot accept the words that any of us can really "control risk." And for me, it's more than just a play on words."

I would say, let's not overthink this.

If I invest in something, there is always the risk of a loss, that amount of $ I put in. That's unavoidable.

But we certainly can control that risk.

i.e. we can put everything in at once and either win or lose, or we could split our risk and gradually scale in & scale out.
Pyramiding on to losing layers with smaller pieces of the overall planned risk, as Kevin (and Shawn) do, is just a different form
of risk control.

The simplest form of risk control most likely is having a S/L.

How many beginning traders don't respect, or can't accept, their s/l's or daily loss limit?
That's just another example of risk control, which is all just part of Money/Risk Management.

We could only trade the setups and rules we have defined in our trading plan, or we could just try to trade something not
really documented. Another form of risk control.

There are so many different ways how we can manage/control our risk.

I think what you refer to is that we can't control the world, the markets, someone else is moving it, events, anything can happen
anytime etc. I share this opinion with you.

As I see it, we can't avoid risk, or control a 'always profitable outcome', but we have different ways how we can control the risk we have put in, that amount we are willing to lose for the higher probability/return of profit.

 
Rookie

Frank, " I still cannot accept the words that any of us can really "control risk." I'll agree with that. We can not control the risk any more than we can control the outcome. But we can control how much we are willing to lose if the action doesn't work out as expected. This is called risk tolerance. It is ingrained in everything we do in this life.

what is the risk?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/risk.asp

We control our risk tolerance with various methods but the easiest is well-calculated stop. How much is our psyche is willing to lose on a particular investment, I. E. Risk Tolerance.
"Overall, it is possible and prudent to manage investment risks by understanding the basics of risk and how it is measured."

In so doing we create a risk-reward trade-off, as I am certain you are well aware.

risk trade off.PNG
 
FrankS

Rookie: You wrote, "We control our RISK TOLERANCE with various methods." [My emphasis]. So, I see your words making the point that risk itself is inherent and cannot be controlled. And your example further shows even better that I wrote what we control - our "risk tolerance" but not risk itself. It's an excellent choice of words, btw, with "tolerance" being added. I like it!

My point behind all this is not to "overthink it" at all, as Rob kindly noted, but to simply admit that my level of control always starts and ends with me and my reactions to the risks inherent within the markets. Frankly, too many teachers/trainers, no matter how intelligent and successful, are inadvertently promoting a false philosophy to newbies with what I read and hear as their so-called self-empowering rhetoric. In my opinion, failure to understand and admit what we truly can and cannot control is a major part of what keeps us from becoming a truly responsible trader. I learned this lesson in futures the hard way over many years ago. And, for the record, the author of "Disciplined Trader" helped me see it as far back as 1997, as it coincides with his words, "Always think in terms of probabilities."

That is why when I discovered that the Big Boys of Forex play by a different set of rules as the futures market that is far more regulated, and I am already familiar, I could not blame Big Bank traders for any of my failures adjusting to the differences. It is up to me to see what they do differently than my experience perceives, including how and when they tend to do it, and the risks that I take by not understanding their tactics. And that is another key point in so many words by Rob, in that WE induce our own set of risks; and I add to that by what we fail to comprehend and/or admit.

And, sorry to have to write this disclaimer, but just in case my comments are being considered by anyone as an intended criticism of Mr. Pyne, they are not, as I barely know him.

 
robunited

@ed "We can not control the risk any more than we can control the outcome. But we can control how much we are willing to lose ..."

But that's the same thing, isn't it?

Risk = The Money I put in, i.e. 200$ for a trade

Can I control that risk? ... yes. I can make sure I don't lose more than what I wanted to risk.

And the different techniques we can apply to spread out and manage that risk .. also risk control.

When we work on our statistics, all those different variables, that's also risk control

If I plan to risk 2% on a trade, and I hit the 5% system rule... that's bad risk control

If I plan to risk 2% on a trade, and I hit the 2% in loss, that's good risk control.

So I don't really understand why we should not be able to control our risk (that amount we put in per trade).
Of course we can, that's what trading is all about.

;-)

 
Rookie

So I think both are correct however we are looking at different aspects.

I am referring to the individual trader in learning how to manage their risk tolerance and make a balance with the price action. We are simply controlling our potential loss both financially and emotionally.

This control has nothing to do with controlling the price action profit or loss.

Another interesting POV is when we place a take profit target, and then the phrase let your winners run, The paradox is that we are the ones that stop the winner from running.

 
FrankS

OK, let me reword this a bit to save time and save the horse from getting beaten to death. It's crucial to recognize the fact that our control is inexact and highly subject to variability, and that makes our control limited, never absolute. Only our ego allows us to send ourselves the strong delusion that we are in full control.

Yes, we control where we place our entry orders, where we place our exit orders and where we place our stop orders. However, once those orders are placed, as fixed as we may think they are, the control is out of our hands except for canceling the orders. The market determines whether we get filled and exactly where we get filled.

And Rookie is correct with regard to our power over allowing runners to travel the course. So, in that regard, traders do have control. However, none of that control power has authority over price action, distance traveled, and cycles. Therefore, the risk of loss is predicated on price action, which we can never control.

Nonetheless, we can attempt to mitigate our exposure to that uncontrollable risk via the levels by which we place our entries, stops and TP levels. Is that powerful in its own rite? Yes. However, even there, a Crazy Ivan move or an Alveo glitch can shift our stop far from the point where we placed it. Why? Because ALL stops become market orders, a fact in forex as much as it is in futures and options.

So, anyone who thinks a stop order is solid as a rock misunderstands market dynamics and the shifting aspects that the systems that process our orders possess. If that were not the case, the word "slippage" would never appear in trading. Many times we have witnessed Alveo processing a stop, only to find it was not processed at all, or that the process level was far, far away from an intended level. Point: so much for control.

 
robunited

@Frank

"So, anyone who thinks a stop order is solid as a rock misunderstands market dynamics and the shifting aspects that the systems that process our orders possess. If that were not the case, the word "slippage" would never appear in trading. Many times we have witnessed Alveo processing a stop, only to find it was not processed at all, or that the process level was far, far away from an intended level. Point: so much for control."

As posted before, yes, with these events of 'chaotic nature' I agree, they are out of our control.

That doesn't take away that we can control our risk on a daily bases when we trade.
Risk control doesn't mean nullifying, or being a 100% protected against all kind of events.

It just means to work on and manage the things which we 'can' learn & control, as much as possible.

The events you list, I fully agree. Ivan, slippage, earthquakes, etc.

"Anything can happen anytime" ... I've experienced this, and have been through a few of these events.

i.e. Swiss Franc removed cap over-night in 2015 where stops were not respected and slipped by 800 points etc.

With regulated brokers, you will get your money back. That's what made FXCM go broke.
(https://www.forbes.com/sites/deanpopplewell/2015/01/15/flash-crash-ensue...)
btw ... do I open an account with a regulated broker or an account with non-regulated broker for a bit better spread? Also risk control.

Overall Frank, I don't believe that working on controlling our risk gives a false sense or delusion. Quite the opposite.
It's a level in our trading where we start to become more successful.

There is something much more to trading than entry/exit/sl ... which are techniques where we can minimize our losses and maximize
our profits.

 
FrankS

Rob, always respectful and a friend with advice, we are not on the same page with this one. You keep insisting that you can control the risk itself, even if only on a daily basis, and I totally disagree. At least that is what your words insinuate to me. Hells bells, neither of us or anyone else, no matter how masterful at trading, can predict the next Black Swan event. So, attempts to mitigate are just that - attempts at mitigation.

Now, can you (or anyone else) become more successful by practicing techniques with proven probabilities? Yes, of course, but it is NOT from controlling risk. At best you are controlling yourself, your trades, your actions, your inactions, etc. relative to the effects on your trading positions by risks that change like a chameleon or a shapeshifter. That means any attempts at mitigation are really attempts at mitigating the effects of risk on our positions, not really controlling risk itself. See the difference, even if merely on a short-term basis?

Still, even the best of techniques is no guarantee that you can literally eliminate all risk. And even if you could for a moment, the nature of the market would change. In other words, our actions affect the market to change in such a way that risk is impossible to fully eliminate. So, unless you can eliminate it day after day, then you cannot control it, no matter how much you may argue or debate to the contrary.

So, that's why a Black Swan event is indeed the de facto case in point. Simply consider a power grid shutdown while your trades are in place, volatility expands as would spreads. That would fit within that definition. So, would your techniques save you from the effects of that kind of event? I don't think so. You can attempt to work around it, dodge it and run from it, even deny it, but you can never ever fully control it.

Yet, I fully agree that attempting to "control" risk (the essence of your words) is better than not attempting any type of control whatsoever. However, it is still in my mind a misguided attempt because it fails to respect the nature of markets which is to take from you, not give anything to you. Thus you must protect yourself which is really a defensive action, not a controlling action, as it is the nature of markets to be incapable of being fully controlled; and that is the type or element of risk that you seem to deny. Not even the Big Boys with all their power and influence and techniques have that kind of power.

So, my bottom line is this: If you or any trainer sincerely think that you can control risk to such a degree that you can somehow achieve becoming the master of it so as to control it to the point of elimination, then you are setting newbies up for a giant surprise. And that in itself is perpetuating a philosophy of delusion predicated on ego. And I have learned well how markets have a knack for crushing egos.

[And for the sake of this thread's sanity, I will end now on this subject, as I don't want my replies to degrade into endless counterpoints.]

 
robunited

@Frank

"So, attempts to mitigate are just that - attempts at mitigation."

"That means any attempts at mitigation are really attempts at mitigating the effects of risk on our positions, not really controlling risk itself. See the difference, even if merely on a short-term basis?"

Ok, let's settle for this. Mitigation, or limiting exposure to risk to a level which we can accept.
I already agreed that risk can't be fully eliminated.

I hope this discussion does not set up newbies for a big surprise.

IMO what sets up newbies for a big surprise is the long search and promises for a working strategy, where really the
success of our trading is on the side of our risk/money management, which takes a few years to develop.

To me, I differentiate between 2 types of risk. (attached)

The one side we can control (i.e. don't open a trade 2 min before NFP without
knowing the NFP is scheduled, not moving our s/l's manually, knowing correct position sizing etc.)
That's a long long list of things we have to learn and over the years, with experience, this will be the breaker or maker
of our trading.

And the other side, that risk which we can't control, which you are referring to
i.e. Black Swan, S/L's not respected by broker, Power plant down etc.)

Alright, we did a few roundtrips of this, I think we have both stated our perspective/point of views ;-)

Screen Shot 2020-07-21 at 11.36.02 AM.png
 
kevinpyne

Great discussion here, traders! Seriously. I love the chatter and the risk discussion! I especially appreciate the respectful and cordial responses and tone of everyone. Seriously, great stuff here folks.

I have my own opinion regarding the issue of "Risk Control", since I'm the facilitator of this thread and the corresponding trading room, I'll chime in my two bits and we'll call it good.

I guess the better term for me to use is "Risk Management" right? I mean, heck, that's what we call the darn class on Wednesdays! ;) And Ron Evans is the Risk MANAGER of Apiary, not "controller" am I right? We can all appreciate the differences in vernacular and semantics, but without risk management in trading we're all on a fool's errand. If you think you cannot manage risk well enough to make money consistently, then what are we all doing here? That's my thought.

@FRank, I appreciate you bringing up an important issue. The point I want to make for everyone with my style of trading and managing risk is this: You CAN be a consistent and disciplined and profitable trader! It's possible, many traders, including myself are making a living doing so. And I can tell you that it didn't happen on a bigger scale for me until I focused on the risk component of my trading. And part of that is also managing MYSELF to not mess everything up.

Managing Risk in trading cannot be viewed as unmanageable or uncontrollable, it is a critical component. Yes, you can't fully control anything. But you can manage many important things pertaining to risk. I can control those things ENOUGH, maybe not fully, but ENOUGH that I can take enough from the market to support my family without giving it back. And, as far as my teaching/training goes, I for one would rather err on the side of stressing risk control or risk management to newbie traders rather than being afraid of planting improper delusions in their minds. Because without any focus on managing risk, you'll just spin in circles, or most likely, give away your money. I see exactly what you're saying for sure though, so we'll leave what's been said as what's been said and it's totally great we all can disagree and still make money! So let's go make some money! :)

For my purposes in this trading room, I want to show traders what's possible. And it IS possible to MANAGE your risk BETTER than you have been! It's allowed me to do some pretty awesome things in my trading and I'm just trying to share those principles. It starts with how focused on how you manage your trades, your money, and your risk.

-----------------------------------------------------

@SCrubFree, I'd like to address your great questions:

"[1) When you are right, your payoff is small - your smallest exposure to the market happens when you are correct]" -- It's true, when I'm right at first layer, it's small. I'll usually hold to 15-20 pips, and repeat the process. 2 micro lot (.01) trades at 20 pips isn't a lot but repeat that 10x which I have time for admittedly, some of you don't, I understand. It's how I can execute more consistently. I also have been trading multiple markets (as you see below) to make more pips, more quickly.

"[2) Your largest market exposure occurs when you are in a losing position - being wrong just means doubling down on a losing position]" ---As long as I'm within my PRE-DETERMINED risk percentage (-2.5%) or within my chart setup on the 1 Hr chart, I'm ok adding to a "losing position". It's better than putting a .2 lot in a market and having it run against you 50 pips, then stops you out at 60 pips, what does that do to you psychologically? You'd be down more of a percentage of your account than if you add into your trade position within that 50 pip range you determined for your .2 lot. I'm not exposing myself any more than I plan before hand.

"[3) If it never turns around within your risk limits, you must take a huge loss at some point - which at least in my experiences have wiped out the gains I made when the trades worked out]" ---The "huge" loss is that PREDETERMINED -2.5%. I've hit that plenty of times. But trading like this has allowed me to be more consistent on the winning days and thus off-set those times where yeah, the market just doesn't pivot back like I expect and I have to take the loss. Stinks but that's trading.

"[4) There are pretty significant psychological impacts to holding losing positions that just keep getting larger]" ---Not with practice it doesn't. It has lessened my stress in trading significantly. After lots of practice of course. If you know your skills and your capabilities to consistently make profits, you know that you can make back any loss that you have to take. That's been my experience. I almost want the market to move against me.

---------------------------------

Hopefully, that answers your questions. Awesome stuff! So, here are the results from today. Not sure if I'll have time tomorrow or Wednesday to trade in this account, I've a pretty packed schedule. But, again, trying to get in at least one a week.

So with that. Just showing a successful set of trades today in the GBPUSD and the EURJPY. Took tonight to finish out which is totally fine because the markets were within my risk TOLERANCE (I like that word, Ed) and stayed there.

On both pairs I sold into resistance, after the GBPUSD moved up 140 pips without any significant price cycle pullback, went another 20 pips before it pulled back down 25 pips, enough for a 150 pips or so. The EURJPY, very similar. Sold what I thought was a downtrend, ended up rallying up the previous pivot high. Nothing scary there. Made about 140 pips there with the 20 pip pull back.

Both starting layers were losers, I was wrong (again...happens to me a lot these days). But I still made money. That's the skill I hope to convey and share.

"Take what you can! Give nothing back!"

Trading Room Results 7.20.2020.PNG Successful Pyramid_EURJPY_ 07.20.2020.PNG Successful Pyramid_GBPUSD_ 07.20.2020.PNG
 
mike_smith

Kevin,

"Take what you can! Give nothing back!"

Great quote, remember it on fridays!

 
ScrubFree

Kevin I appreciate the considered response. I'll keep an eye on the thread. My issue when I try to do this has always been that the market can put me in a > 2.5% loss before it finally turns even with a 0.01 lot size. I think part of that is just that 0.01 lots is bigger percentage of my small account :-) Maybe I just put the layers on too quickly and need to space them out more in my case since the account is smaller. I notice in your screen shot above you did 4 layers, 0.01 + 0.02 + 0.04 + 0.08 = 0.15 which would have been well within my account's limits.

In another example you had 9 layers before it finally turned... I think that would have been beyond me and I would have probably hit 2.5% way prior to the turn, but I guess that would have been a day where you take the 2.5% loss and call it a day for my account.

 
FrankS

This type of scale trading is not new to me, as I have experienced similar systems even when learning to trade futures. There I often felt I was trying to catch falling knives and rising rockets. So, the key was waiting for the price to reach a level whereby the thrust of momentum began to wane. Sometimes the MACD helped me see that happen. The level of turnaround worked well but oftentimes I would still get hosed, and I wasn't trading for stats but for money. I admit my problem has always been my distaste for deep drawdowns.

So, when it came to Forex, I reconfigured so as to let the market run its course or close to it before I placed a layer. Of course, when trading for stats as I am right now, it's crucial to wait for confirmation of the turnaround. And that has led me to develop a deep respect for weekly, daily, and session highs/lows on the charts as markers for pause and/or wane levels.

Still, I'm truly interested in Kevin's layering method and rationale, but my distaste for deep drawdowns has yet to dissipate. Not sure if that will ever go away, though. LOL.

 
dannywhite3298

1

 
dannywhite3298

T

 
kevinpyne

@SCrubFree - yes, you have to manage the layers, risk, market set-up depending on the size of your account. Make sure you take those things into consideration. I don't think it's wise to trade EXACTLY like me. Learn the principles, apply them to your personality, situation, risk tolerance, etc.

One of my main trading philosophies: "The SLOW way is the FASTEST way." Like Triguy says, start trading smaller. Trade small and a huge market move against won't break the bank or your mental capital either.

@FrankS - I love that concept, waiting for the momentum of the move to wane, and looking at those higher time frame levels of S/R. That's essentially what I'm looking for as well. And yes, depending on your trading situation and personality/profile, some may trade more aggressively than others who need to wait for confirmation. Great points there.

@Dannywhite, ApiaryFund offers this great opportunity for us don't they? Great point.

Thanks again everyone for the contributions!

"Take what you can! Give nothing back!" - (@MIkeSmth - I will try to start saying this a lot more. lol!)

 
FrankS

Kevin, how do you increase your odds of reading that waning momentum? Sometimes markets will pause and then continue. So, if wrong, do you simply wobble, or do you get out and attempt another level?

 
mike_smith

I like contrasting Kevin's and Rex's Risk Management classes. The two have different information but very good. Hope to see more risk classes from the two.

" I don't think it's wise to trade EXACTLY like me. "
exactly Kevin, I always say apiaryfunds strength is it cultivates members to find and use their own strategy.

 
mike_smith

I've been listening to more Kevin's "Money and Risk Management" classes.
https://apiaryfund.com/calendar/2020-07?event=57990&d=26#calendar-event
The whole webinar hour passed without me even realizing it, that's when you know you're learning.

I highly recommend Kevin's risk class, his risk webinar reflects a very experienced and logical trader.
No comment on the 'Trading Partner' class though (lol).

Looking forward to more risk classes from you Kevin.

 
mike_smith

I enjoyed Curtis Cooper's Trading psychology classes, they were one of my favorites, but I can't recall he made parallels with risk management. Wasn't he usually referring to trading psychology vs trading strategy making or losing pips?

Most funded traders here preached to me risk is most important, so I like Kevin's view that trading psychology is even more important than risk management too.

So watching trading psychology and risk management class.

But unfortunately is anyone else noticing that his money and risk class is starting to look like his trading psychology class?

 
dannywhite3298

Kevin, Todd, Shawn, Nate, Jeff, Rex, and Steve are experienced, professional traders who give of their time, energy, and experiences in success and failures to train those who have joined the Apiary Fund to become successful traders. In the three years that I've been a member, I've watched videos, listened to discussions, watched live classes and trading rooms, from all of them. I have learned that all of their classes, regardless of the subject matter, tie together to teach success. Money and risk management, trading psychology, entry and exit strategies, stop loss and take profits are all necessary and will determine our success or lack of success. So I value any class that touches on and stresses the importance of several things necessary to become successful at trading currencies. In every class that i have attended at least two or even three are covered, never just one. So I will continue to listen, learn, and apply their teachings in order to reach success and profitability. When I get to big for these guys I'll start my YouTube channel and become an internet trading mogul. I will offer my grand strategies for $999.99 and post pictures of charts to prove of my great knowledge. I will also post pictures of me, with my laptop, trading on the beach. So in a few short years look for, "Daniel the Wizard of Trading Fund." because I've become a more advanced trader than the lightweights listed above.

Good Fortune to You All,

Danny

 
Rookie

Ah Danny your wonderful, wish you the best, BTW reserve a spot on the beach for me, please.

 
mike_smith

" I've become a more advanced trader than the lightweights listed above."

Who exactly are you referring to danny? There's quite a few people listed above your comment.

 
dannywhite3298

I

 
Rookie

Folks, Keven had a pretty good class today, from the calendar,
Kevin's Trading Partner Room
10:00am CDT

Attached is one of the takeaway charts. Not the upper and lower division of the trade session. Obviously, if the PA is north of the centerline the tread is bullish, and if south the trend is bearish.
Now for Kevin's pyramid sample, let's assume the lower have and a bearish trend.
So instead of fading the slide down as is quite common, we place buys going down the slide.
These are evenly spaced say 10 pips apart per layer. depending on you're designated risk tolerance and trading a .01 or,02 at the largest you might have about 35 positions available in a 10K account, Maybe you place 3 positions on the 1st layer, 6 on the 2nd layer, 12 on the 3rd layer and 15 on the last and 4th layer for a total of 37 positions which is also about 30% of your available position. These layers a built from the top down with the smallest layer at the top. Then when price action bounces and the trade heads back both your position start to close the largest first.

So why is this pyramid useful? It took me several attempts to get it right and if the PA doesn't bounce you with close or enter the fix-it mode. Back to the question of how is it useful. This is a primo fix-it mode wobble. Now Levin usually trades on the 1H chart. So suppose you were going bullish today with either the EU or GU and while your trend following north and PA decided to pull back but you think its just a temporary event, you can place the trades as described and enter into a fix-it mode for the bounce and retrace back to the trend! Thus turning a potentially losing trade into a winner.

This type of pyramid trade was hard to grasp for me because it goes against a trend traders' logic sentiment. Hope I did this setup justice.

Any questions away, Also if you like Kevin has some good documentation on this setup, so email him...:))

Kevin's 3 P's.PNG Fixing a Trade.PNG
 
mike_smith

" lightweights - Kevin, Todd, Shawn, Nate, Jeff, Rex, and Steve,"

Sorry danny, I still didn't understand the definition. It's ok nm.

 
Rookie

it was a pun,

 
mike_smith

Ok thanks rookie, I still didn't get it.

But I wanted to thank Mr Pyne I believe listening to his webinars are saving me time and money. Very grateful for that. It's true physics in the works.

 
kevinpyne

I had a couple of great questions emailed to me about my pyramiding process:

"1. Are you working within the price levels of the hour chart? Meaning, determine a price level on the hour and as the prices moves within that level make trades on the minute at points of support & resistance on the one minute chart?

2. I know it's coming so would you mind explaining Fix-It Mode? How exactly do you fix a trade going against you? Do you just get out and start working the opposite direction of your initial bias?"

My response:

"1. So I call the 1 hour chart my "anchor." I look at those previous pivots, the previous pivot high and pivot low. And I use those to determine how to control my risk, so wherever the market is compared to those pivots, which direction is easier for me to manage my risk. Does that make sense? That's my set-up zone, usually 30-50 pips is a decent range I'm looking for. Then I move down to the 1 minute chart to start building my layers.

2. Fix it mode/zone is a smaller, maybe 1/3 or 1/4 of the size of my set up zone. So if the market goes past my 50 pips of set up, I give myself another 15-20 pips of fix it to try and scalp my way or build another layer and get out with a smaller loss. Usually once I take a loss, if I have to , I'm taking a break so the market won't be in the same spot as when I got out, so that way I'm not tempted to play the "revenge" game or if it ends up going back my direction, I'm not trying to go the opposite and thus frustrating myself because I was right the first time, now trying to work myself out of the other side. Does that make sense as well?

Great questions! Let me know if you need more clarification.

 
dantheman

@kevinpyne
"...so the market won't be in the same spot as when I got out, so that way I'm not tempted to play the "revenge" game or if it ends up going back my direction, I'm not trying to go the opposite and thus frustrating myself because I was right the first time, now trying to work myself out of the other side. Does that make sense as well?"

Oh yeah. I find this all the time. If you get out of sync with the market this just keeps happening. You build for a move and then it finally goes that way but you get out trying to reduce your risk but then it proves to early etc, so you try to hop back in but then it turns around and you do it all over again. A break through for me was when I stopped chasing the market like this. Whenever I swap sides of the market I have to get in at a normal rate and with appropriate sizing and risk. If I get in too fast or heavy it will always stop and turn right around. haha.

So much of trading this way is just survival. Managing everything so that you survive everything that goes against you and then you are finally positioned for when you do get something your way.

Great discussion.

 
kevinpyne

@dantheman, agreed! Survival is the name of the game. Survive at all costs!

Another successful pyramid that took two days to happen, stayed within all my risk parameters and it was a "slower" pair. The AUD/USD rather than the GBPUSD. Took some profits yesterday from the top layer to lock in some gains, then waited for the pullback. Each layer was about 15 pips away, allowing the more swing style rather than day trading.

Account after three weeks since starting this thread is up from $6,332 to $6,495, a gain of 2.6%. Not great, but not bad either considering I don't trade in this account every day (and that could be a good thing). Anyway, just wanting to build consistency and discipline, which takes time. The slow way is the fastest way!

Successful SWING Pyramid 07.30.2020.PNG Trading Room Results 7.30.2020.PNG
 
FrankS

Serious question for Kevin: Would you trade this present system if you were in Beeline and had to meet stats as opposed to trading for money?

 
kevinpyne

Yes, Frank. This login is my "admin" login and I went through beeline a second time, and got funded trading this exact way. I shall demonstrate in my room in just a few minutes! HOpe you can catch it or the recording!

 
kevinpyne

Successful trading room today! Thank you for all participating and supporting!

Trading in a pre-fund account to show that this pyramid system works in any size account. And your stats requirements for beeline CAN be fulfilled trading this way. We made 150 pips in the hour, good enough for 1.3% on a 1050 account size. At no time did I have more than 6 trades open, six .01 lots, so this is dable even in a 600-700 dollar account.

We found our pairs based on where we could manage our risk the best, which gave us the best reward for the potential risk. The EURJPY was it this morning, with some GBPUSD sprinkled in there.

Being able to repeat that day in and day out is hard, tricky, tedious and requires patience and discipline, but isn't that what we're all trying to develop anyhow? Might as well start today!

Trading Room Results - Pre-fund account 7.31.2020.PNG Trading Room Results - Pre-fund acct history 7.31.2020.PNG
 
Rookie

Kevin, your choice of trades, patience in waiting for the trades to mature while sharing was a great example! Thanks.

 
mike_smith

"Cut the loss more". July 29 Money and Risk Management, thanks Kev.

Some semantic play I saw in his slide (00:51:42/0057:16): Commit to the Process: Consistency requires trust and confidence of a statistical edge.

 
mike_smith

Kev made me understand I should always be prepared to risk manage any of 5 scenarios. Sorry for the bad drawing ;)

5_scenarios.png
 
Rookie

Not so bad Mike, its called a dispersion zone. I

In Kevin's class, its a matter of S&R pivots and his fav indicators for confirmation.
In Jeff's class, we learn to use quadrants to estimate the probabilities of how far.
I used to draw three cones like your lines.
Now I draw the dispersion cones in the quadrant, much like your linear regression charts.

 
FrankS

What is the schedule for Kevin's classes? I found the one for Fridays, but I thought there was another. Did I assume wrong?

Right now in G1, I do not need Trader On The Street, as it does not help me pass the stat game, but Kevin's classes would be a better fit, as I have exposure to scale-trading via my futures exposure.

I'm also testing Kevin's set-ups (as I understand them) in Sim mode, but still, find the selection of the entry-levels a bit unclear. The scale is another issue. I would think each pair would have a range of scales of which to select based on volatility, and that based on its ATR ranges.

 
Rookie

Well,
Monday but he is off today for a birthday
Wednesday, MM class late.
Friday a partner class.
Thursday AM in TOTS
Thursday PM group class

could be more but I am not aware of them.

 
FrankS

Rookie, is there a fee for any sessions?

 
Rookie

with the exception of TOTS not that I know of

 
mike_smith

OMG, the daily return % is taking me for a twist, fits right in with all the other risk management lingo. Kudos to Kev

 
mike_smith

Kevin,

A lot of disruptions on that last money and risk webinar but the last 10 minutes were good. Appreciated the price discovery, sell at resistance to see what your risking. A lot of useful advice in that class. I hope focusing on psychology and risk more will enable me to use my trading strategy more systematically.

 
FrankS

Why is it I cannot see the rerun video from Wednesday's class, "Money & Risk Management"? It states "the format is not supported?." It even says Zoom. In fact, none of the past videos for that class segment can be viewed for the same format issue.

 
Rookie

Frank, are you referring to the past Wednesday nites money-management class?
If so I just tested it and no problem,
remember to click on the chain link.

 
FrankS

What chain link? Where? LOL. Still looking. It should not be this difficult.

OK, found it. It's really a link to open in a separate window.

Thanks as usual!

 
Rookie

see attached, select a new tab or page. after it opens you can close this page.

chain link.PNG
 
mike_smith

I have the same problem with TOS Risk Management classes. The most recent take days after the webinar to play.

2020-08-07 10_08_36-Risk Management - Trader on the Street.png
 
joele

This looks extremely interesting to me. I have tried the wobble without much long term success. Seems like I never know when to really pile on the orders when I enter "fix it mode." I'm either too heavy and get killed on a break out or I don't have the guts to go heavy enough and can never get back to break even. Having a method like this with clear entries and a bail point is awesome. Excited to give it a shot.

 
Rookie

Mike, that's because the poster did not put the link in yet, in fact the entire week has not been updated except for Shawns... maybe he rates more than the other instructors...LOL

 
mike_smith

Thanks Rookie. Wait long, strike fast.

 
ColumbusNdah

Hello Kelvin, I have been trying to trade pyramids with mixed results mainly due to overtrading on my side and putting too many positions in relation to my account size. I think it is a great system if implemented correctly with good risk management, one can become consistent.

One question I have is that say I have a target of 15 pips for my fist position and as soon as I entered the trade it goes in my favour for 10 pips, do you add to the winning trade?
What if it gets to 14 pips and starts reversing, do I leave it t go against me and wait to add more position when it goes to -10 pips?

 
FrankS

Columbus, if I have a target of 15 pips and a trade goes quickly in my favor for 10 pips, I tend as a trader for G1 stats in Beeline to take the 10 pips or at least place a tight stop for protection of those 10 pips. However, if I was funded and trading for money, that is a different story. The goal would be to hold for that Take Profit (TP) at 15. That's just me.

Then again, if I was long 2 separate contracts, then I would take the first 10 for the bank and let the second contract ride. Nonetheless, even there, once a 10 pip level was reached which is 2/3 of the way to the target, I would likely raise my stop to even so as to keep the loss percentage low. I figure there will always be another opportunity coming down the road. Again, that's just me, but maybe why I'm still in G1. LOL

 
triguylm1

Hello Columbus, I agree with Frank use several positions to reach specific profit targets. . .

I mentioned this earlier, but is relevant to gaining 15 pip targets...

As far as those working the 1K account. Risk allowance is only 0.20 lot total. Allowing only 6 trades of .01 lots to hold positions to 83 pips before reaching the 5% risk limit (0.06 lot max x 83 pips x 10 factor = $49.80). So 49.80/1,000 = 4.98%

So. When doing a pyramid layer: each layer is spaced with 18 pip spacing as follows:

1 trade market open price
2 trades 18 pips against
3 trades is max. 36 pips against
Hold for an additional 18 pips (-54 pips)
(1 trade -54 pips + 2 trades - 72 pips + 3 trades -54 pips = -180 pips)
180 pips x .01 lot x 10 factor = -$18.00 or about 1.8%

Compare to wining results aim to earn 1.5 to 1 ratio: thus, 81 pip profit target (54 x 1.5 = 81)

1 trade at market earns 81 pips
2 trades 18 pips (discount) earns 99 pips
3 trades 36 pip (discount) earns 117 pips (81 + 99 + 99 + 117 + 117 + 117 = 630 pips)
630 pips x 0.01 lot x 10 factor = $63.00 or a positive 6.3% profit.

So, more important than 15 pip target is to use a trailing stop and gain the 81 pip target when the market is trending!!!

 
mike_smith

Great risk management breakdown triguylm1.

 
FrankS

TriGuy, just so I'm clear with my understanding, do you consider the weekly high based on the highest high of the previous week's Mon-Fri period? Or do you use the highest pivot of the trailing 7 calendar days as noted by Alveo's D7? In that case, the weekly trailing high might not be the highest high of last week's Mon-Fri time period.

 
triguylm1

Frank, Yes I see your point. Generally, price will take a few days to reach the edges anyway, and test weekly or monthly pivot highs or lows depending if price is trending or holding within a monthly price range.

Looking at the EUR/USD: Lately, though we have seen a very significant bullish run that reversed last week near 1.19000 as was my target price zone. Today, we have a major market correction, , which in my opinion is a way of saying the Central banks are cleaning house and taking profit from those who still hold long positions. Also, same deal with those holding long positions in Gold and Silver. As, anyone thinking price was going to reverse near support of 2000.00 yet price continued to drop another 1200 pips today, thus, a total of 1700 pips from the pivot high 2050.00 to 1880.00. (20500 - 18800 = 1,700). So, that had to be billions of losses from those trying to hold long positions in metals. That is sooo much speculation money going back to the Central Banks who of course initiate price bid and ask quotes.

Figure 1 contract controls 100 ounces. at $2,050.00 per ounce or $205,000.00 worth of gold now worth $188.000 or a $17,000.00 loss. So FX trading that is 1 lot size. figure if one was trading 0.10 lot just 10% of the contract, that's a loss of $1,700.00 each in just one day!!! There were millions of contracts traded. look at the volume!!!!

Sorry I got off on that Central Bank control of the market scenario. . .

 
FrankS

LOL. Triguy, I ALWAYS enjoy market scenarios! However, this time I still want to know if you use a trailing weekly (7-day) highest-high or the highest-high of the previous week for a major pivot? Or is the type of selection not that important? In essence, I'm asking which one you prefer to sue. I'm using the weekly merely as a sample, as I know there are pivots for the month, quarter, annual, etc.

Yes, I know the question is a bit anal (excuse my engineering proclivity), but I suspect your success is filled with high levels of detail like that.

 
blackkm

I wonder if Apiary will put on gold and silver again soon?

 
Rookie

they will when the issues with metals are fixed in the delivery and selling more than is deliverable is fixed.

 
kevinpyne

@Columbus - Awesome question. In your scenario, for me, if my first layer is the right one, I'll hold to the 15 pips, and sometimes look for another setup in a different pair whilst that one is running. If I'm always right on my layer, I'll just slowly bank in profits and build a cushion. Then I will repeat the process, assess my risk, start a new layer (usually on a pullback on the same bias but not always) and then go for that 15 pips again. Rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat. (The Slow way is the Fastest way)

Then as I have more of a cushion in my account. I will start with 2 trades instead of the 1 on the first layer, maybe even start with 2 and then move on to three depending on the size of my account. A $1000 prefund or new funded account, always start with just the one.

In my mind, I just need to repeat the process a few times in order to build a consistent .5-1% per day. The slower I go, and the more patient I am, the more I'm able to manage my risk without getting anxious, even WHEN the market goes against me.

I hope that helps! Triguy's risk of the layering breakdown is perfect. Spot on. But you have to make sure that you're developing your own process based off of those risk principles. Don't trade like Kevin or like Triguy, discover and develop and practice your way in finding out how to trade like YOU.

 
mike_smith

Why can't trainers just use TP>SL entries like beeline tells us to, instead of all this peeling. Why not just take it out of the beeline if it's the single rule that's consistently going to be broken at apiary fund. If this is how it'll always be, I would have been a lot happier going through the Gold levels being taught how to wobble.

 
triguylm1

Yet one can't be on the right side of the market every time, unless the trader can predict the future. . .LOL I'm just kidding. don't make that a quote. We all think we can be right more often, buy eventually the losses will keep on coming.

Like in a wobble system, how do you know if price will return before the risk limits are reached? We just saw the gold market run 1,700 pips bearish before reversing and moving back 800 pips to the mean price of that one day price "Correction", as the experts called it.

 
mike_smith

@triguylm1,

Instead of quotes how about a lot of old clichés? Birds of a feather flock together. I'm sure if this was a fund where everybody was a turtle trader we'd see a lot of anti-scalping sentiment. Anyway the modus operandi at this fund is scalping, I know. If you can't beat them join them! But still, I find it very contradicting in this fund hearing trainers say it's very hard to be right 80% of the time but that's what you need to be a good scalper and then they will spend all day scalping in their trading room. Is the fund trying to make profitable members asap so it can grow asap, or is it trying to be right 80% of the time?

 
robunited

@triguy "Like in a wobble system, how do you know if price will return before the risk limits are reached?"

With a lot of practice to get to know our correct scale for our account size, religiously following the trade management tasks
... for that larger pullback to come.

Price doesn't have to return ... the majority of that larger position has to be in reach of a larger pullback only.

Will take a few years of practice though ;-)

 
robunited

@Mike "Anyway the modus operandi at this fund is scalping"

I'm not sure, everyone is free to trade whatever they like ... the stats are the same stats tracked as in all other trading platforms.

Only your own results/performance counts. Does it matter what or how others trade?

I wouldn't spend too much time thinking about this. Trade what you are comfortable with, and be profitable every 20th of the month.
Only thing that counts.

 
FrankS

I'm living proof that you can't be on the right side of the market every time, regardless of what you are trading and how robust your system may be. And my greatest loss is merely .01pct. It's a noble goal, though.

I still say that forex can be likened to pork bellies. Play too often from the inside and it will grind you to a pulp. Play too much from the outside and that reversion to the mean just might run you over like a freight train.

And folks are right about scalping forcing you to be 80% correct. I know I'm not, so I must trader longer term as a swing trade; pulling for entries on a trend and then reversing when that trend looks to be waning. The problem is it's not always obvious due to fixed timeframes, wherein other platforms, I can customize.

After many years of trading stocks, options and futures, I must openly admit that forex, despite the so-called safety of pairs trading, is one tough s.o.b. to deal with on a regular basis. I think I can attribute much of the disorderly conduct of the price dynamics to the lack of a global clearing system. The fact that we never have validated further volume disables us from developing a true price/volume profile to compete with the Big Boys. Granted, a volume profile is no panacea either, but it surely provides a more even keel sailing into the Big Boy winds.

And as much as I hate trading for 3 types of stats in Beeline that often compete at the same time, I've been awakened by the experience to accept the adage that trading for money might indeed be easier.

 
mike_smith

"Price doesn't have to return ... the majority of that larger position has to be in reach of a larger pullback only."

Ha, I thought Rob had disappeared! Yes, I see your strategy. It's great sir. Like I say I have a little bit like double trading personality. I like practicing wobbling and TP>SL trend trading. That's what I mean I do it on different apiaryfund accounts to generate differ stats for each personality type. I find the two styles help me understand the other.

"Does it matter what or how others trade?" Hard to say what does matter.

I have been meditating lately that I would be very happy with a TP>SL system, I can see myself working it out over the long term, evolving my strategy to fit the price action after each SL hit. And letting time and LLN smooth out my equity to a steady incline. Two forces are working with you when using reward > risk; more experience makes you better at positioning your entry, then that in turn is only supported more by the LLN.

It's crazy, the more I use a TP>SL strategy, the more I remember what I heard and read in past training. The education is designed to be orthodox, but it just all clicks into place in my head when I'm trying to design my TP>SL strategy. I'm still waiting for my flawless trader breakthrough, but, for anybody questioning if you should listen to the trainers...I give my two thumbs up.

 
mike_smith

Kevin's Money and Risk Management and Trading Psychology classes are great left right brain exercise.

 
mike_smith

Oh god, gotta say in TOS I like the idea of swapping trainers around to teach the 'Risk Management' class, but not how they water it down spending time on things they do in say their trading partner class, or other classes. Folks reminder, traders do know 1 + 1 = 2.

#WobbleBootCamp!

 
robunited

Kevin ... update pls. Don't let this thread slip :-)

 
kevinpyne

Hey traders! We're in need of an update (sorry folks, I've been swamped and this is kind of low on the totem pole. It's good to be busy)

So, last trading room we built a successful pyramid that nearly hit my stops, but turned 10 pips away. Some key take-aways:

1. Tight layers are the common denominator of getting stopped out just before the market turns. Be patient in building those layers
2. If you have a tighter price cycle, with pivots determining your range, then it's ok to build those layers tight, but you MUST adhere to your stops and not get stubborn (speaking from experience)
3. Patience really is the key on both ends, on the getting in AND the getting out. If you're patient enough to hold onto a loser, why aren't we patient enough to hold on to winners? (Disposition effect bias probably, right?)

Here are the results from the room. Successful days are always more fun!

Successful Pyramid 08.21.2020.PNG Trading Room Results 8.21.2020.PNG
 
dantheman

So true and so important to understand Kevin.
Speaking to #2:
I think this has been a KEY in my progression as a trader. I used to map out my trade and then when it went against me I would just let it go and go and go. Now I'm finding much more success by mapping out my trade, calculated my risk and sticking to it. I follow a similar pyramid/layering method in my trading except I'm trading with 3 pip layers on the GBP. But I map out my trades and if it goes against me more than 0.25% (what I risk per trade) I get out. That is a small loss I can overcome and make up by trading two more trades (assuming 1:1 rr). And for me I've found that if I am NOT patient and layer in too much and too quickly, I hit that risk before planned. But I still get out! Because it is my fault that I didn't follow my plan. So by having that consequence for not following my plan I'm teaching myself better habits.

Once your trade goes against you and you start trying to convince yourself of reasons to stay in or throwing on another indicator to confirm that you should not follow your plan but instead adopt this other strategy; YOU ARE COOKING WITH A RECIPE FOR DISASTER.

 
Rookie

Kevin, how to fix a Biases including Cognitive bias,
Kevin, what would be the best way to correct/replace a Cognitive bias?

 
kevinpyne

Thanks Dan! Ed, I'll look into this for the next Psychology class, great question to consider!

So, today's trading room was another successful pyramid. It's nice when those work out for us. The marching markets and outside ranges can really beat you up, but when the markets move in cycles it's always nice. Lots of good lessons from today's trading. Hope you can watch the recording soon!

Trading Room Results 8.28.2020.PNG Successful Pyramid 08.28.2020.PNG
 
mike_smith

3 layers losers and only 2 win and still made 291 pips for the day? I will make sure to watch that recording.
Seems price cycles and retracements are key on this technique and trend direction.

I recall in the past grid trading being shot down all the time in preference for Shawn's wobbling style risk management. But seems it is sustaining a come back with Kevin's technique here. I confess though, I do find shawn's wobbling technique more adaptable to eliminating risk. As Kevin admits losses are simply taken, but with wobbling you peel out of losses real time as the loss builds up in order to keep your trading session going.

 
Rookie

Mike Shawn's wobble has one real fault, it doesn't happen to Shawn often but when an outside rage hits then march off to an overextended price cycle of a few magnitudes, its trouble, Shawn has earned the equity to withstand that drawdown and come right back with the retracement, but we traders no so much even with excellent cash and trade management skills, we can be stoped out.

I the example Kevin just provided how many price cycles did price action advance against him before the retracement? Suppose it kept on marching, whats is the risk? what is the probability of only one PA and then two PC etc?

Don't get me wrong I like Kevins reverse pyramid risk management layering. And I suppose playing to odds it is the best alternative to fix trade going against the traders.

That said Kevin's trading has given me food for thought. You may have read a post or two of mine against hedging. I would rather close and get out wait and get back in with the price action momentum. An example is the attached trade from Thursday PM and overnight. The trade was clearly going against me so I closed out, I then placed several sell stops, when price action returned like Kevin I got all my pips back and more for a 1% gain. But in my opinion much less risk.

8-28 overnight Plot Trades.PNG
 
mike_smith

"I would rather close and get out wait and get back in with the price action momentum." ya this is what I do with the short term ml predictions and wobbling; try to use smaller stops and greater momentum probability.

I agree I think Shawn could benefit from using any tools available to stack momentum probability in his favor while this could additionally enable him to reduce the liability on stop loss size. If you're improving your momentum probability, what's the need to stick with a 35 pip hard stop. This is why I always say technique to improve both TP and SL should be evolving in your trading. Don't ignore either, don't focus on only one side.

 
FrankS

Is it fair to call this method, "Scalping Scale Trading"? Or "Pivot Scale Trading"?

Moreover, I can see where placing H4 high/low pivots of the previous week along with any newer pivots of the present week on an M1 can help provide the long-view stage.

Nonetheless, if the price is above last week's mean and trending to the upper bands where the H4 pivots are, then should that trend not be viewed as the higher probability trade? In other words, if the price has not yet reached the RTM zone so to speak, should not the probability of price rising toward that zone count as no less probabilistic?

 
FriscoBill

Just a short Thank You to Kevin Pyne. Your discussions on Risk Management are helping me tremendously.

 
FrankS

In addition to my earlier comment, the past two days of watching/trading Eur/Usd has proven even further that there is no real bound on the number of price cycles until it happens. Usually, I might see 4 or 5 price cycles(H4 pivots), but as of today, there are 8. And I got clipped last night assuming I had reached the end at 5.

Yes, even at cycle 5 I had to recover a lot but I can't help but feel I was merely acting like a broken clock which is correct twice a day.

So, playing a long-trend in play until there is an actual confirmation of a top makes even more sense to me. In reality, catching a turn down after a rising trend is just plain tricky. And while I like Pyne's scale approach, that placement of the first line of trades in the sand for an RTM is crucial and requires a watchful eye on the probability scale. However, last night I learned there is also a time for loading up.

 
Rookie

Frank all trend traders would certainly agree with that sentiment.
If you get the change chek out some of Tom Basso podcasts. He is certainly one of the most down to earth traders around,

However, I trade with the trend but not for the long term and thus 1/2 the circadian cycle to catch the momentum in my trading session. I traded both the Asian and NY Open with this chart. the price cycles were drawn back in the Asian session.

Catching the Movement.PNG
 
FrankS

You are hitting on my point, Rookie. Yes, I fully agree with the RTM strategy, but before it gets to that level there is usually a trend trade preceding it. And that means there is an opportunity for two strategies, in other words completing the swing cycle.

Last night I should have stayed with the trend cycle. By not giving that cycle its due time, I went for the RTM too soon. Granted, I thought I gave the trend cycle what I thought was plenty of time and room, as I did not enter until price got to the 5th price-cycle level (H4 pivots); but alas I was wrong and had to suffer drawdowns, stop-outs. etc. I recovered some but not all. I learned a lot, though. Yeah, maybe that one was an aberration, but I need to be able to sense even that situation; so I'm testing an HMA to see if it can help.

Damn, the last thing I want to add is another indicator, but sometimes situations demand it, especially if you hate playing the fix-it game so early. Then the other issue is selecting which TF to consistently read the indicator accurately.

 
Rookie

So if you check out the chart, speaking of indicators, the two EMAs are starting to expand at the price breaking out of the channel, then I pause and waited for confirmation, to enter a series of trades. as the EMA's continue there expansion I continue trading until the red-fast one tuns with the slow one Green soon to follow as confirmation.

While this chart is on the 5M for my plot trades, which I had removed for this chat, I was trading on the 15M chart.

 
dantheman

It definitely depends in a big part on how long you plan to trade. If you are open to trading for a longer period of time and want to stack your layers farther apart, I think you can open yourself more to trading a reversal. For me I trade less than an hour. So I pretty much never fight the very short term trend. I orient myself with the daily and 1 hour charts. But look to scale into the 5M and 1M chart trends (89 HMA for me). For such a short window of time the chances of the trend continuing are far greater than a reversal in my experience. Very often I find myself on the opposite side of the market than Shawn or Kevin because I just keep riding that trend rather than predict the turn. But that is dictated heavily on the amount of time I want to devote to it.

 
FrankS

dantheman: The need to be on the opposite side is precisely what I have been experiencing lately, when "predicting the turn" (in my case multiple zones established by previous week H4 pivots) and waiting for that RTM ideal opportunity. Even with patience invoked, I still sometimes get in too early, as I did last night. And in G1, I cannot afford deep drawdowns which can lead to deeper stop-outs if all goes Crazy Ivan on me. In cases like that, I often realize too late that I should have been in sync all along with the trend already in play much longer, even in what I call the red zone.

Nonetheless, I'm actually getting better at this. I see it; I feel it, and the stats stood against the onslaught. LOL. The vid definition by Shawn noting the difference between a strategy and a tactic/method kind of reset my brain for better focus/clarity. Why now when I watched that months ago? I don't know. Maybe I was ready to accept it and apply it. Anyway, it's a-comin', as they say. Thanks, Rookie!

And a special THANKS to Jeff Pyne for his encouragement, especially dealing with success in futures but failure in the form of declining equity in forex! He is right in that I cannot trade like Shawn (who can?) or exactly like Jeff (who does not trade exactly like Shawn either). Moreover, forex is unique, a most important statement! So, I have declared to myself that it's my account; it's my responsibility. And it has to be a system tailored by me just for me and just for my style of forex trading. Yep, the message is clear and I get it! And now I need to get back to work!

 
mike_smith

"...stack your layers farther apart..." This is like random trading. Why not just take your medicine; hit your stop, work through the probabilities hitting your stops and targets. "...trading a reversal..." What if it never reverses? I can go through dozens of stops without hitting 5% even on a 1K account, but layer and your daily limit is sure to hit bc you carry it through the days.

To be honest, if you go through dozens of stops without increasing from original equity it's probably you're strategy.

 
FrankS

Mike S. has a valid point. For example, my resistance levels the other day for Eur/Usd were in the form of H4 pivots above the weekly median. Moreover, I did not choose the lowest but the highest of those to place my short. On top of that, that level was traced from a week ago (in other words, a weekly high) and it was tested again as a valid resistance level. Granted, it's all about probabilities, regardless, but the odds looked high for another downturn. Well, that is not what happened.

So, my own lesson learned? Trust But Verify! The market that produces its own boundaries (S/R) can break its self-imposed boundaries at will. Moreover, the Big Boys have a keen proclivity toward stop hunting and head fakes. So, in their case, assume they will do the opposite of what you think makes immediate sense. In other words, they are not there to help you, but to use you to fulfill their own needs.

 
pysquaredmgmt

Today was my first day using this technique and I ended the day up 0.01% with 32.8 pips balance from locking in 200+ pips versus what was still outstanding. Of course right after I closed all of my positions for the day price moved in my direction and I would have had more pips. Its a process and I know there will be tweaks that I need to make for my trading style to incorporate this trading structure going forward. Thanks for sharing.

Tip for New Traders to the Method: After setting your levels add text to each level indicating how many to buy or sell at each level. This helped me remember today where price was in relation to my buys. I'm guessing after more time I will know where I am.

 
Rookie

So I blank out the SL and Henry and just leave the TP on the chart, no problem seeing where PA location is in relationship to the target. I also keep an open trade window so the red or green pip number is right in front of my face...-))

 
pysquaredmgmt

@Rookie I'm pretty sure I had my TP too far away today but you're right that would be a way to see where you are as it relates to buys.

Any other tips on using the technique for the real rookie meaning me?

 
Rookie

no more rookie than me,

if you are not using the one-click tool for every trade set up, start.

Identify the patterns that make your eyes feel like you looking at a babe, identify your target, when it happens get in. Patience is the key here.

I reduced my max risk to 1% has made a big difference to my trading.

If you have a 1% max tolerance and using the one-click it tells you how many positions available, if you only use 50% more or less of them then the balance for a potential fix-it mode, then when you hit 1% its closeout time because you're not in sync with the market. Take a break meditate do some yoga, after which your brain can be free to focus.

It's hard to understand for rookies (it took me 3 years) that at this level it's not about making money but all about the slow way to consistency. Pips are for consistency. Incorrect sizing leads to digging itched for a living.

Food for thought.

 
pysquaredmgmt

@Rookie thanks for the tips I will definitely look at implementing them. I do use one click so all good there. I was thinking about doing the 2.5% but 1% may actually be a better starting place at this time. My focus has been on being consistent and the money will come but this week I blew things up once again which lead me to look around the forum again to see what I may need to due that I hadn't thought of and low and behold I found this thread. I actually think I've seen this before but sometimes we or I have to see something more than once to get it. Thanks again I really appreciate you taking the time to share.

 
Rookie

YW,

Never Give up.PNG Patience is Key.PNG
 
kevinpyne

Great chatter and discussions here folks! @Rookie, thanks for all the contributions!

So, those of you in my trader on the street class this morning saw a couple of pyramids that we layered into. This is how they turned out:

1. Predefine your risk (Protect the capital at all costs),
2. Which pivots of the past could turn into pivots of the future?
3. Layer with price cycles, let it run 10 pips or so between layers, especially if you're trading multiple pairs like I did today with EUR and GBP this morning. 10 pips between layers kept the risk down, didn't even see negative .5%.

Keep on trading on, traders! Take what you can and give nothing back!

Trading demo results 9.3.2020.PNG Successful Pyramid_GBPUSD_ 09.03.2020.PNG Successful Pyramid_EURUSD_ 09.03.2020.PNG
 
Rookie

Right on Capitan Sparrow!

 
pysquaredmgmt

End of the week update. @Rookie I've been using your advice and looking to shut it down if I get to 1.0% loss on the day but I haven't come close to it yet. I'm pretty sure I'm taking some trades off too soon so that's an area I will work on next week. My target currently is 0.75% and on day 1 I got 0.78% off of 85 pips and today I got 0.77% on 91 pips. Planning on taking a look at my averages and trades to assist with making any adjustments that may be needed. I did some practicing yesterday after I hit my target in another account and basically broke even but that was still good in my book.

Tip for New Bees: When you face a challenge find or create a solution. I stopped trading on Fridays due to liquidity drying up as the day goes on (at least I think it does). There's plenty of liquidity at the London open which I miss out on because I'm asleep. I decided to get up once a week and trade the London open and selected Friday as the day that I do it. I was done trading around 9am this morning since I hit my target. Find a way or create one!

Any tips on closing out trades are welcome????

One thing I did try out today was lets say on level 3 closing out 1 and then using a trailing stop on another. They all closed out with gains but I noticed that there are points where price retraces farther than I initially thought it would have. It may just take time for me to get more use to the process.

 
Rookie

FOMO is a hard issue built into our psyche, I have not concurred that aspect yet via the confidence of trading but our rules help a great deal. Understand the time and price cycle for the time traded is awsome.

Plotting on the chart AKA chart Art has helped me a lot, and recognizing the candle pattern. Draw away it really helps.

 
pysquaredmgmt

@Rookie I have been dealing with getting out too quick for some time myself. I was trying to utilize the price cycles and some trend lines today. I'm sure we will get there in due time just have to keep working and challenging ourselves.

 
Rookie

the attachment is my new growth strategy, especially for my targets.
Attached is from Jame Clear

Growth Strategy - Clear.PNG
 
hllndg

I like "Take what you can give nothing back!"

 
kevinpyne

So those who were in today's trading room. The GBP and the EUR made that "V" bounce off of the lows (that I mentioned that doesn't happen all that often) and didn't try to test the bottom. So, both those positions stopped out at the -2.5% loss on the day!

It's frustrating.
It's maddening.
It's mind-boggling.
But it happens!

SO that's why we plan our risk out before hand and decide that it's a worthwhile and acceptable risk! You win some and you lose some, just control how much you lose!

Have a great Labor Day weekend!!

 
Rookie

Sorry to read that Kevin, thanks for being honest. Certainly happens to all from time to time. Good thing you have an excuse talking all the time...-))

BTW I look for the "V" bounce every morning, they happen almost daily in or around the NY Open.
When setting up my daily trade I draw my horizontal highs and lows decide which quad I am in, and take it from the far right edge. Always caution is NY Opens when the pair is in the middle of the Support & Resistance for sideways channel wobbling but a break out will come.

I was a little more fortunate today. Hindsight is great I would have, could have, would have made 10%.
Why I got out at only a few % gain, one I recognized the tension building up in my body, two I had not had my morning coffee yet because I stayed up late listening to Apiay podcasts nor anything to eat. So I called it a day rather than push the envelope.

9-4 EU NY Open to close.PNG Nothing goes to heck - Wolf.PNG
 
FrankS

Kevin [for some reason I want to call you Jeff, I guess because of Jeff Bierman in Chicago and associated with Theo Trade who helped me immensely with futures trading]:

1) What would define the condition/rationale for an equal-step scale (1,2,3,4, etc) as opposed to an expansive scale (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, etc.)? How much does volatility affect the decision?

2) With any entry scale, would you ever scale your stops, thus changing each level to keep pace with the entry scale?

 
mike_smith

It happens Kevin. As long as your money management will put you back up.

 
kevinpyne

Todays' room ended positive. The GBPUSD ended up coming up enough to take profits on both those layers. Very low risk trades today netted a decent amount to add to the bucket.

Remember, just looking at buying into support and managing my risk in case of another price cycle lower, the bounce came and we made some pips! Buy into support and sell into resistance.

Trading Room Results 9.11.2020.PNG
 
mike_smith

Yes, always have your eye on where's support and resistance.

 
triguylm1

Thanks Kevin!

It is possible to be profitable everyday, when one takes the time to set up the higher probability entry.

In terms of a trending market vs consolidation break-out set up. In other words, if the market is trending, trade the bias of the trend. and if price is swinging that whip-saw price range then the entry is like Kevin is saying, "buy into support and sell into resistance">

Note, each market condition only rewards one direction for profit; thus, trend markets only one direction vs whip saw markets making money in a specific Price Range. So those trying to follow a trend in price range conditions are seeing losses. and on the other hand trending markets are making money if one is on the right side of the market and holding the bias trend positions.

Knowing the difference is like knowing market sentiment.

For example:

1. One can tell as the Tokyo session is more about consolidation while London and New York sessions are more about Price Expansion.

2. One can tell as price swings provide a harmonic or Fibonacci expansion patterns and retrace patterns.

3. One can tell as financial reporting either causes price range patterns during "On going Monetary Policy" or trending sentiment during "Stimulating or changing Monetary Policy"

4. The Heart Beat Price Pattern: Price Support levels vs Big Market Movers profit taking manipulation causing what I call the "Heart Beat Price Pattern".

This is when price will spike up or down first causing a "Pulse wave" and after returning to start, will then spike the opposite way and return to start. This cause two things to take place. First, those using break-out strategies or cross over strategies are getting into a trade near the peak of the spike just in time to see immediate losses. While the Big Boys are taking massive profits and causing the market to reverse very quickly. Then the second thing happens every one is following the reversal just in time to see the the market spike the opposite way, again the Market Movers (MM) are booking massive profits and causing price to reverse very quickly back to the start (consolidation).

I earned just over 5% Thursday eve. and Friday I work, so didn't trade today.

 
mike_smith

"Heart Beat Price Pattern" I'm impressed triguy. Stop hunting does remind me of EKG.

ekg.jpg
 
triguylm1

Yep!! LOL

 
mike_smith

Although the EKG moves flat, LOL, more like standardized data.

 
FrankS

TriGuy's statement, in my opinion, is a MUST keeper because it is powerful: "Note, each market condition only rewards one direction for profit." In other words, do not underestimate its worth.

I'm reminded of the words by Jim Cramer where he stated that "there is always a bull market somewhere," meaning for me that there is always a best-of-breed choice option. Well, in this case of forex, I often struggle with deciding whether to go for the trend or the RTM (Reversion To Mean); and often I find too late I should have stayed with the trend instead of choosing the RTM option. So, that statement by TriGuy tells me that there is always a more powerful opportunity on the table at every trading moment.

And of all the books that I have read, I declare that his particular wording stands out big-time to me, perhaps because I'm seeing it now in my own assessments of the forex price dynamics. And as he wrote further, "Knowing the difference is like knowing market sentiment."