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Non Farm Payroll

 
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adamwood004

Non Farm Payroll

Very new to trading but thought I would give scalping a go on the M1 chart. I have never seen prices move so fast within a second or two the range was fluctuating -6 to +6 pips. Speak about high volatility. A definite learning curve for me and one that I may stay away from in the future :-)

ps: I came out of it all a single pip up which is better than a loss; don't think Scalping is for me though....

Fri, 03/09/2018 - 10:03am
 
gpdno

NFP will almost always retrace back to it's starting point. So next month, try this instead. I use a 1hr chart.

Note the direction of the move.
Waiting 4 hrs after the news. T
Take a position in the opposite direction of the move.
Set your take profit at about 80% of the expected retrace.

Works best on the GPB/USD and EUR/USD. Back test it and be read for next months NFP.

Peace,
Greg

 
adamwood004

Thanks Greg I will give it a go next month, will let you know how it goes.

Cheers for the advice, much appreciated,

Regards,

Adam

 
Rookie

I plan on doing the same I even copied it down and emailed to myself for a reminder....
If its good enough for Gregg I might be good enough for me...... thx Gregg for the post.

 
cuttoheal

News Traders,

I like the Ron Evans' news trading strategy: wait for the 3 bar after the first big spike then trade the retrace. Got 104 pips from EUR/USD move today trading the NFP with this approach.

For a more complex method that had essentially the same gain today, see Jeff Crystal's 5 AM video for today as he traded the NFP live.

Have fun trading!

Tom

 
Rookie

@cuttoheal, geat tip thanks. If its good enough for Ron it has to be supper!

 
gpdno

Rookie,

Yes, either way works well. The main point to remember is to avoid the initial news event. Too much volatility. Too wild of spreads.

Big news events will almost always retrace. Once everyone calms back down, the retrace tends to have less volatility and less crazy spreads. So it's safer and more reliable and IMHO the only way you should trade news :)

Peace,
Greg

 
Rookie

Greg
I'm sure, I'm just being pokey with my comments, I had a great night's rest... highly unusual for my schedule but my daily BP stats require that I change my schedule.. and sleep is one of the most important items on list, right up there with exercise and nutrition...

 
gpdno

...and coffee... lots and lots of coffee :)

 
Rookie

Ah but no caffeine for me and the Dr. doesn't think when it say not caffeine that they really means it....
So I get one mug per day.... also why I drink diet Snapple and Ice Tea, but I do make a few allowances for a grape beverage... only from time to time and only for medicinal purposes...

 
abdelbouyanna

Hi Cuttoheal

Where can find Ron Evans' news trading strategy that yo talked above? Thanks in advance

 
cuttoheal

Abdel,

I picked it up from Steve Perry in a Signals class.

You can email either of those guys at the Apiary Fund.

Good luck trading.

Tom

 
Rookie

Jeff class from the morning CATT Tools/Non Farm Trading
https://apiaryfund.com/calendar?event=35358&d=#calendar-event

I need mo instruction on these grids any one know which Jeff class that may be?

 
Brian-Dream-Trader

NFP - I'll be watching next time... Thanks for sharing.

CaptureNFP-Retrace.PNG
 
mickmckay

hey Rookie, You need to get into something like a lemon ginger infusion. Tastes nice and no caffeine. I live on it while trading.

 
Rookie

I'll try it!

 
adamwood004

Great advice guys, I will keep posting every time I hit something I'm not quite sure about.

Currently working my way through Silver 1 and the way some folk have been speaking there's plenty of challenges at this level and Silver 2.

 
vdijoes

Thanks, another strategy for the toolbox. I'll give this one a try.

 
Longhorn

Thanks Greg! Will try it out.

 
elymarkarian

Thanks for the strategy my friend. I've never tackled trying to trade the news, unless it was by accident because I wasn't paying attention :). I'll have to try this next time.

 
Norma Jenner

BrianDreamTrader Tx for posting the chart. Do notice that waiting 4 hrs to enter was way too long in that case. Greg's point is great, but we still need a chart read for turns

 
jsdcornymann11

...

 
timintuit

Thanks Gregg: Its the waiting four hours part that is going to be the toughest. I'll give it a try.

 
chris_4

The most important thing is to be aware of major support and resistance ahead of the announcement. When you go back and look at these moves after the fact, and use the weekly chart as a guide - a lot of the time it becomes somewhat clear as to why things happen.

 
Rookie

When I have traded or rater had positions open before non farm because of the current trend they were opposite what the non farm caused and severely hit my pips negatively in G1. Hence I have learned to close my open positions beforehand no matter what as one doesn't know how the masses will react to the report along with tweets and the like. Even though it's a good bet that interest will rise the market will be poised like a spring board. The reaction used to be about 100 pip spikes bull and bear very rapidly and its so easy to get caught in spike as it goes both direction before you blink your eyes and usually several time. Last time or tow it went 150 pips in both directions. What I do and this is one of these don't do as i say things. But I wait for two may three complete swings believe me it only takes a second or two, then as I think maybe it's slowed just enough to jump on I do. I will have two pairs open and my one click per set to about 1/2 the swing and adjust quickly and balm enter either side then PA moves and bame hit the other side making sure you close the other trade asap... and so on a few times it is risky and easy to screw up but I have made some very good pips like a 1,000. In the aftermath just take a breath and calm down check out the new trend directions if any and resume trading. But beware of either changing sentiment to come meaning pull backs or reversals even continuations. So in that hour you may want to keep the trades smallish down to 25 pips for slightly affected to 50 pips for some of the majors. The when the dust is settled go back to the boring routine of making pips... LOL.

Anyone please add you experiences from the last few FOMC's and how you choses to deal with it?

 
gerard.kelly423

I think so many traders get out of positions as there are only "stops" left as the closest targets to be hit during these fast moves, best to be out I believe.

 
mejeannecouture

There are trades that I would love to master.
London Open
Banker's close
Non Farm Payroll

 
gpdno

FYI, I'm short on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD and looking to take profit on the retrace of this mornings news run-up.

Peace,
Greg

 
Rookie

My thoughts for NFP this am, I placed my stops a bit to close but should be ok considering whipsaws.

The other I will trade is XAUUSD, manually after the whipsaws stop.
------------------------------------------------
So action was a bit lackluster but we did ok. After 30 minutes I closed my few remaining opens for a 40 pip loss rather than hang out and risk the waiting. Descression I'm told is the better part of valor.

Cheers!

NFP Setup 2-1 615AM CST.JPG NFP 8amCST Closed out.JPG