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Rookies Long Term

 
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Rookie

Rookies Long Term

Several traders have asked for this worksheet which took me most of the day to make a template and write it up. 

Fortunately it usually only takes me an hour or two to actually do the setups. ON SUNDAY pm. 

The attached is my worksheet and test run. If they both don't come thru I redo. 

This strategy is the culmination of much and varied LT testing most of which I was not happy with the results. One of our instructors said about long-term (well it wasn't pleasant) so like any good trouper, I have done my best to adapt and overcome with a set it and forget it LT methodology which I hope to expand upon going down the dusty trail.

It is my understanding that getting a run of pips these days greater than 100 is getting exceedingly rare. And for my style of trading, I certainly agree with that sentiment.

Comments are welcome

 

OPS file deleted by mistake, Sorry

Sat, 11/17/2018 - 6:08pm
 
tmurray440

Hi Rookie good luck I hope it works for you. I believe MM stands for measured move which is just another exit technique.

 
Rookie

@tmurray440, thanks

I doing an Apiary search on the term "measured move" I find this post from Hak,
https://apiaryfund.com/forum/gbpjpy, hakchinoy

I'll share my observations now. An inside bar (or harami) is forming on the monthly chart, and it abuts a monthly S. On W1, price is within a down-channel, looks like it might be forming a bullish diamond (which tend to form less often than its bearish counterpart), and it closed slightly above the upper W1 trend-line R (which one could seen better via D1). On D1, PA formed a "Naked Forex" wammie; price closed abutting a D1 S zone while coming close to retesting that upper W1 trend-line S; and price closed slightly below the 23.6% Fib level. On H4, price closed below the 38.2% Fib level, and completed roughly 60% of the measured move of the H&S. (I used the crosshairs tool to mark a price near the 80% completion mark [technically 159.274].) Plus, the BOJ talked down the JPY a few weeks ago.

In reviewing several posts HaK is about the only trader that regularly uses that term with chart examples

 
Rookie

In the attached Spreadsheet, I have attempted to identify longer-term trades both buy and sell to take on Sunday evening CST after the market settles.
By identifying the weighted interest rate, the market technical indicator sentiment form two different sites and their anomalies and lately the rough eyesight approximation of the percentage of deviation via the Bollinger Bands.

So what's missing is the price cycle in the PIPS and time Cycle in Bars. Obviously, one can approximate these on the chart with Nate's Bar method and is relatively accurate but time-consuming.
Does anyone know of MT4 indicators that can calculate this information or a website that can do it on auto??

AttachmentSize
Week of 11-18-2018.xlsx 234.83 KB
 
pcguy007

Thanks for sharing

 
Rookie

PCGUY its good to see you funded and back again! Congratulations.

 
getsitdone1

You're tips are becoming helpful

Thanks

 
Rookie

No LT trading this week to much market blah...
next week!
Have a good holiday!

 
huntb44

You as well Rookie and thanks

 
panos_1

Thank you for sharing :)

 
Rookie

A new week is upon us. The attachment is one of the main S&W charts I use from dailyforex.com.
Another is the currency index tool at Mataf.net https://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tools/currency-index

It would appear that selling the EURUSD this includes the metals also.
and buy USD JPY & USDCHF would be good LT bets.

The DXY is almost at the 30% line on the mataf.net chart and almost 97 on the PA chart. which means another test to break thru the resonance level.

11-25 interest S&W.JPG 11-15 S&W indexs.JPG
 
Rookie

I have published my EURUSD & GBPUSD Long Term trades on TVC under rookie007.
Also took several D1 trades based on USD S&W but not published.

 
markpowers80

So, rookie, where is tvc and how do we see your charts/discussion there?

Inquiring minds want to know!

Thanks!

 
Rookie

https://www.tradingview.com/ its free just sign up.
you can also view others such as Norma and AllenG

 
FXGold54

Ed, Some really good Stuff here. I think your work ethic is unmatched :)

Stay Green my Friends :)

Allen

Tradeview id = AGold54

 
Rookie

today's work, a little dort on the equity, best I could do in a flat market.
Not sure I would consider this LT but it's the method I am useing.

11-28 last 100.JPG 11-28 Equity Bar.JPG
 
kcbringhurst

Thank you for sharing!

 
markpowers80

Rookie, you are doing all right!

The dollars will grow when the number of lots you trade with increase, and lots will increase when the account size increase.

IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME.

 
Rookie

At this moment I am watching Maj Ripley 1st season, one of the quotes from a POW was courage is not a mark of bravery but is a matter of faith.

Thanks, Mark for the encouragement.

 
Rookie

I was going to post this yesterday am but got sidetracked, I had to really tie my hands as I wanted to very much take the pips and run. Especially in view as the NYO was about to occur and I know the value will hit zero or worse. And it did...
Hanging in there as I am new to this long-term trading, tonight this account hasn't quite made it back to where it was.

That said in another account started late this afternoon, it is soring ahead easily surpassing its predecessor.

We shall see about 5 am CST what the pips have to say.

12-3 LT Overnight 615am CST.JPG
 
Norma Jenner

tmurray, MM more often means Money Management.

Ed, another use of measured move is in estimating how far price will run up following a gap up. It is pretty accurate

 
Rookie

Thanks, Norma, is there something different to a "measured move" than just estimating price action?

My test account went negative during the NY session then leading to the Euro session it went up to 400 pips only to 150% reverse during the Euro session. Now the NY open in an hour so obviously I will leave the trades open and try to get my pips back sitting on my hands.

 
tmurray440

Rookie

I’ve seen the term “measured move” used in a couple of different ways. Trading with Fibonacci could be considered a measured move. Using measured move with fibs would be an entry technique (enter on a 50% retracement). What about using a measured move for exits? If the market is ranging 40 pips then breaks out, one could expect the market to move the width of the range. It’s the same idea with the head and shoulder pattern. If price breaks the neckline one could expect the market to move the distance from the head to the neckline, giving you a measured move. Now of course it doesn’t work every time but it does give a target.

 
Rookie

Thx Murray.
I have to give that exit idea some more thought.

 
Rookie

Sunday I traded in a sim account to test as posted above, on Monday I added another sim account to test.
They both went to + 400 pips and then back to zero on the NY open. The first I closed out with a big loss, the second I closed out all the losing positions then I added a few more. The result of today's test is attached.

So what have I learned? I learned I do not know how to get past the London or NY reversals even when useing the weekly charts with a basket trade. So I will limit my pairs to two or three at a time and no more but make more consistent use of the one click.

The goal is still to get past the 24hr trade profitably.

12-4 8pm CST.JPG
 
robunited

Ed "So what have I learned? I learned I do not know how to get past the London or NY reversals "

I would say, if you weight in the currently extreme uncertain market conditions, with those very large whipsaws, this strategy just doesn't work as well at the moment.

Back in time this year, from March till June (for the EUR/USD), I can only guess it would have worked perfectly for your long term strategy, in a strong trending market.

Adjusting this by taking your profits earlier, 400+ pips, would have been a great trade

 
shinkee

I trade the Asian closing to London opening quite a lot, definitely a different beast from the US market.
Overall, I would say at these times, the market tends to produce stronger and more persistent price movement, and of course huge spikes as well. Usual support/resistance levels that will hold in US market may not hold that well in London market.
And yes, there is a high probability that the trend established by the Asian markets will be reversed by the London market.

 
AJBells45

Thanks for sharing. Good trading to you.

 
Rookie

Thanks, traders for the feedback. A few other traders have shared with me to use smaller lot sizes to whether the daily swings in order to get a trade past the 2-3 day mark, so I'll try that next Sunday PM CST with two pairs at .02Q

 
Rookie

So attache dis my S&W search for the coming week.
I think I have indicated a few very good trades for this overnight and perhaps the week, time will tell.
With big news on Tuesday, I would be very cautious if you decided to trade that period.

My long-term trading last week was ok but turned out to be more short-term... I do not see this week being extremely different because of the news.

However, I will place several .02 long term trades in a sim account and let's see what the price action brings us.

Keeping on Smiling.

AttachmentSize
12-9 S&W.xlsx 170.29 KB
 
Rookie

Technically this is a GAP trade.

This my first overnight trade in some time. I was testing the Friday to Sunday or in this case Monday Am to close.
All these trades were placed Friday CST afternoon. Most had a target of 25 PIPS.

I will have to write a new strategy sheet for this. Basically, it is based on S&R and the White Open Spaces as discussed by Vess and Proact. My next version will target 50 PIPs which will hopefully close before the midweek shift in PA.
In this batch, I did have one trade which was taken by careless mistake of not looking to see if one-click was set properly.

Close over weekend test 1-21.JPG
 
Rookie

Day Two.
I might be on to something here, in attempting to make a long term trade strategy;
my problem is getting past the 24 hours cycle and the trend continuing to succeeding days.
While not giving up it seems I may have finally developed an overnight strategy based on White open Space.
My theory is that I don't know which pairs will run as opposed to trades that will not be runners.
That said I can look at a chart and compute the distance the white space from the current price to the next Supply or Demand zone.
My rules are now fairly simple.
There must be a minimum of 50 pips available for a run.
Ideally, momentum will be a plus or minus 45-degree slope from the PA.
The trade direction will match the major trend.
Target is a minimum of 50 Pips, Stop-Loss is 25 Pips.
Trade planning-Analysis can be done at the time of placing trades
Trades can be placed late afternoon CST or after the spread received from the daily change.
Currently, I close the trades in the AM before or after the NY open when the pairs start to reverse directions.

Closed 1-22 530 AM CST.JPG
AttachmentSize
1-20-2019 Currency Pairs.xlsx 13.46 KB
 
Rookie

Here is my spreadsheet to go with the above two posts.

AttachmentSize
1-20-2019 Currency Pairs.xlsx 13.46 KB
 
bigkahunalv

LOVE THE RESULTS!! unfortunately cant't read .xsix

Glad you are having such positive results my friend...will try and follow your "system"

 
Rookie

Thx but it is .xlis normal excel spreadsheet.
I can save to other formats if you like? what works for you?

 
FXGold54

Nice work Ed :)

 
Rookie

TY Allen, I have my moments...:))

 
RJay

Really like the spreadsheet......my ability to make spreadsheets is pretty basic. I'm considering
taking a Udemy course on it .

I think I will revamp my trade log and use some aspects of it in the log.

No problem with .XLSX format....Open Office opens it fine

Thanks for sharing.

 
Rookie

RJay you can't get more basic than what I am doing,
I just label a column or line and fill in the blanks.
For my math, I mostly use my accounting type adding machine, but I can do so excel very basics.

You know my fav group & class is Jeff Crystals. But when he really gets into the database stuff I often wonder if all that is necessary.

I came to the rationalization that I don't need to know everything Forex, just the price action logic,

 
herculesnigel

Hi.

I started using the long term style of trading when i was to stubborn to close my loosing trades as fast as possible according to my set ups and if the trade goes opposite me. Now i like the approach of trading only during a chosen period in the 24hrs of trading. i will avoid the long trading style until i learn to apply a strategy the correct way.

 
Rookie

@herculesnigel, I agree, the trade I outlined just about is a very specific time range, about the only trader I know here that can do long term, is Allen with his https://apiaryfund.com/forum/ride-wave.

 
RJay

I wouldn't go so far as say "favorite".....maybe "really interesting"....

One thing that might be useful is learning how to use a pivot table to figure the time periods for losing trades; to find out
Is it maybe because of the pair in question...or is it a trend that indicates maybe that you should be going for a nap, instead?

For me, listening to Jeff talking about d-base stuff makes my head spin. I know I would have to view the recorded sessions several times over before comprehension sets in

 
Rookie

RJay, agreed maybe in the online iteration of Alveo being develope the back office will do all of that good stuff automatically. It's not like the technology is not available. And what a teaching tool it could be developed into1

 
Lyn G

Great Job!
Good luck!

 
cousin.john

That's impressive

 
TommyD

Very nice Rookie. I have been hoping to find something along these lines. Very well thought out and explained. Thanks for getting back to me.

 
froggy

Ed,

Nice work mate!!!!! You're so energetic, love to know what you are having for breakfast !!!!! LOL

 
Rookie

Thanks to all! but two innings does not make the world series.

 
Richie Profit Squad

Great work Rookie, I also like to use previous price to make a future Measured Move. Thanks

 
Richie Profit Squad

Great work Rookie, I also like to use previous price to make a future Measured Move. Thanks

 
tovah

Gee Rookie, you really do your homework! I tried something along the lines of your idea last night. It was definitely operating in the plus thing morning. Now if I can just learn to cut my losses:( appropriately. You continue to inspire. Thanks so much!

 
Rookie

NP I forget to check the news and still recovering from the NZD reverse and then return.
Problem is when it gets to bad on the reversal I get out late and then I'm sleeping when it returns... so I miss the chance to get my pips back. LOL

The other issue with that logic is called the Apiary 5% you're done for the session close out.

 
cbn500

@Rookie . . . it happens to the best. We pick ourselves up dust ourselves off and become more determined than ever.

 
Rookie

@courtney, I'm still dusting... I don't retire easy... while I am positive I am waiting on the EU and GU to turn. Might be later this evening around London time, If not I'm glad I'm useing small lot sizes.

Thanks for the encouragement.

 
Rookie

SO thanks for small position sizes I survived my dilemma, earning 65 pips yester and 65 again after running out of patience and closed the last -35 pips manually. I simply laid back and waited for the US dollar to turn back to the north and all but three trades are now closed. I haven't placed any new overnight trades as I was otherwise occupied. I'll post an updated worksheet when these are closed.

BTW this wasn't as laid back as I get on, actually a bit stressful and it was all as planned over the 36 hours it took.
If tonight looks good I'll do another overnight set. Last night while maybe some decent opportunities I can't leave one set hanging while I'm off on another venture, just like this am I closed my last trade for a loss. Plus I don't like combining different strategies on the same account.

However, I am attaching my last 100 trades. It's interesting to note that a few of those little loses I did not place nor did I close them. It was automagical, maybe the programmers can figure out a way to make that happen with green pips...:))

Happy pipping to all.

Last 100 Trades3am CST 1-24.JPG End 530am CST 1-24.JPG Closed 530 Am CST 1-24.JPG
 
mdpoettcker

This is a big thanks to Rookie - You posted a link to a discussion given by Rex Johnson on Trade Plan Development. In it Rex discussed how we don't allocate our trades properly to our account size, he also shared a strategy 5x55 EMA crossover. So I want to share the experience that came from watching that and tweaking my own strategy. Finished watching video and setting up my charts at 12:30am-went to bed ready for the new day of trading .
Chart Set Up:2 charts side by side M1 and M5
Leftside chart M1- HMA(13)
Apiary Pivot Points Wing Ding @12
EMA(34)-White
RSI(3)-Levels 80,50,20
Rightside chart M5- EMA(5)-Red
EMA(34)- White -Tweaked Rex's 55ema didn't want to be in the trade as long - quicker signal
Apiary Pivot Points Wing Ding @ 12
MACD - Default
That's the chart set up, now for the rest of the story. It's 5:00am MST nature calls. look at the charts - normally trade the GBP/USD but I switched to EUR/USD - there's the signal on the M1 chart HMA crossover EMA(34) 11:29pm GMT-watch the price pull back to the EMA(34) put the trade on at 12:14pm GMT $10,000 account -0.5% risk, 0.10Q lot size, 16pips TP and 15pips SL . So I can put on 3 trades for a max risk of $45.00 - 3x$15.00 loss . I put on 2 trades @12:14pm GMT by 12:21pm GMT both have reached old resistance 1.13524 and I close trades $4.30/$4.60 profit 7min. This was a successful counter trend trade,as I write this there was another signal to go short. Jan24/2019 M5 @ 12:50 pm GMT EUR/USD at the present time 32 pips profit possible in I had taken that signal. So the strategy out of the gate seems quite doable. I'm happy with the results for today. I'll just observe during the time I have through out the day an see how this strategy behaves. Typing this comment took me longer and was more stressful than placing the trade. Thanks again Rookie for the Link it was very helpful.

 
Rookie

Thanks, mdpoettcker, looks like you got the hang of it.
My notes above are not scalping but attempting longer term and a 55P TP.
The graph is somewhat os a mix as I had to hole to trades open for 48 hours.
I'll update it after I get breakfast.
--------------------------------

last post above now updated.

 
mike_smith

What happened to the 'Momentum Burst' class?

 
Rookie

Mike, I do not know, you're asking the wrong person.

As much as you think I am a fund employee, you are not correct but I do like all of us work with the fund.

Which date and time are you looking for? I watched one I think on Monday.

 
pacemath

Thanks for the information and a look at your spreadsheet.

 
bōˈdāSHəs_Fx

Long term trading also has disadvantages as capital is not used effectively.

 
Rookie

Don't know about that this last week is overnight not long term but my expectancy is clearly higher going for 25-50 pips than 5 Pip scalping.

 
TommyD

Amen to that!

 
Rookie

Rookie stubbed his big toe this overnight in not recognizing the pullback of the DXY and then the entering into a channel.
When the DXY wobbles and lack of volume as we have not is my time to exit and take a break on the sidelines.
My reconning may come with the London-NY overlap and scalping if some volume returns and scalp a bit.
Attached is the trades I placed yesterday about 3-3:30 pm CST. At this hour the overall market is still in a downward cycle until about 5 PM CST when it starts the upward leg.

Totals are -103,5 pips and +122.5 Pips for a net of +19 Pips, could have been not so good.

Happy Piping with green pips for all!

1-25 4 am CST.JPG
 
Rookie

The last post was the last post for overnight trading in this Long Term thread.

There is so much red news this week and very important news from the majors that I Sutter to place many long trades, I will but have not made a final decision yet.

The attachment will show my trade consideration based on a weekly chart.

Comments always welcome,
and if there is a pair you like to go long term with let us know your sentiment and why

AttachmentSize
1-28 week Long Term.xlsx 931.81 KB
 
Rookie

I placed 5x100 pip trades this am for my next attempt at long term, each closed at 100 pips during the FOMC.

I will place them again.USDCAD and USDJPY.

 
jrshawndesh

good luck rookie. i change my strategy to scalping from day trading.
Now getting good result of 5 % daily return.

 
jrshawndesh

good luck rookie. i change my strategy to scalping from day trading.
Now getting good result of 5 % daily return.

 
Rookie

JR please share your methodology! I mean that is super fantastic.

BTW JR you sure your decimal point is in the right position.... just saying

 
daveclark

Great call on the FOMC, Rookie, that was a big move. Could have been played with both buy and sell stops. Let's see if the dollar strengthens in the next few days. Keep an eye on GBP/USD, it's coiling.

 
daveclark

Since you mentioned USD/CAD, CAD is correlated with oil, so oil prices can be used to help set up longer-term trades.

 
Rookie

Dave while I am usually not smart enough to do as you have suggested in either of your posts but you are correct.
I do use the USD DXY for just that when trading the USD crosses.
https://apiaryfund.com/forum/trading-us-dollar-index

see also for commodity correlations but I have not had the time to learn enough to keep this thread going,
On that not Todd usually does a quick review of major indicators S&P, oil Gold etc as posted on Bloomberg every time before he starts trading in the morning.
https://apiaryfund.com/forum/how-currency-cycle-correlates-cme-group-equ...

BTW, Dave, I reviewed your BIO and last posts you are headed in the same direction I went while learning.
Feel free to message me if I can help out.

 
daveclark

Thanks, Rookie.

I appreciate all of your posts sharing this journey on the way to profitability. We can learn from good decisions as well as bad decisions. My icon depicts my opinion that we always have more to learn and accomplish.

 
Rookie

Making all the wrong decisions. Friday closed out positive 192 pips but had -184 pips in drawdown (arrow on chart). Not an enviable position heading into the weekend and the trend going opposite the trade.
The wrong decision was to hold the trade open knowing that the dollar was temporarily weakening and that with the weekend GAP upon me the trend usually continues in the same direction.

Next wrong decision, Sunday PM market opens and yes the trend did exactly as I thought. I tried to wobble out of a bad situation but had too many open negative positions and no room to work. With 30 open positions, a small move is a big equity change in either direction. So I went from about -200 pips to -800 pips and finally gave up.

First big mistake. Looking at the plot trade I failed to recognize a perfect three candle reversal pattern. Even after a new trend was established I continued to layer positions for a quick turn around which never came. I also failed to respect the direction of the DXY convincing my self with the famous loser words it's coming back. It has come back to the opening level, unfortunately, I have no room left to trade.

Bad ending.JPG Bad Ending Chart.JPG
 
chris_4

The key is going to be small positions, and making them so small that the market needs to change drastically to knock you out. For example, the GBP has bottomed. It has a bottom near 1.20, and won't go below there again. Look at the longer-term charts to see this - going back decades.

The idea is that people buy things when they are cheap. Big money can do this, because they aren't afraid of being down 500 pips in a position. It gives you a different perspective on the markets. Take the leverage out, and it isn't an issue.

The second major point is going to be hanging onto the position. While you should have some idea of when to get out - I don't believe in targets as the markets will go in a trend for a few years. However, I have signs of when the idea is either wrong - or working against me and perhaps changing, prompting an exit.

Any time I have got into trouble, it has been leverage. I found myself down 20 percent after going live, because I used too much leverage. Ironically, I got it all back and more in two days - by doing the same thing. It isn't the way to trade, but I happened to see an obvious opportunity and figured the worst case scenario was I blew an account that is smaller than the ones I use in real life. I got a bit lucky, but in the end - the long game will require letting the market move, a lot at times.

I am long GBP/USD, and aiming for about 1.50 ish at this point. I will add and subtract along the way, but keep the longer-term trade on.

 
jrshawndesh

Going short seeing head n shoulder formation in usd/jpy on 4 hrs.
What you guys think?

 
Rookie

Hey Chris good to see you,
Yes I know better they were small positions USD had changed directions and as my psych refused to acknowledge the change in direction.

JR looks like a not H&S. Just a bump in the channel.

 
KevinBanks

@chris what time chart are you using

 
TraderHewitt

@jrshawndesh

I wouldn't trade short there, which means there is a 99.999% chance it will work, so go for it!!

Jokes aside, I agree with Rookie, I don't think that's a very well defined H&S, the left shoulder is very small.

More importantly though, if you trade it the traditional way (which I think is a break below the right shoulder?), there is only 12 pips to the first trouble area, the S&R at 110.08s, which is also the 61% fib on last big swing on daily.

Given the H&S is a great trap pattern (lots of shorts below the right should with stops above the right shoulder high), and longs likely to come in at 110.08s not leaving you much room to take a profit (given your stop is around 40 odd pips as it stands now), so that level is only 0.25R away, very poor location to be taking the first part off in multiple part position.

Of course, if you are looking to trade it more from the edges, and work in a short around now , that changes the picture as of course you can then cover half at the low of the H&S where the crowd gets in (so you have something in hand if its an immediate trap and sellers just get absorbed there) and you can play a wait and see game at 110.08s with the other half, if it is a trap (and I think it will be) you can exit the other half with profit. (don't steam in short now of course at random, its Presidents Day, though it does look tempting, especially on a break and immediate rejection above 110.61/4s trapping longs entering above that triangle)

 
Rookie

Well, this post is not long term..:)) I traded this set this morning after Jeffs class about 8 AM CST and closed them all at 9:30 AM CST when I came in for a break doing a foot of snow removal exercise. As the PA started to go the wrong way I was fortunate to have built up a decent buffer.

PIPS 2-18 Close.JPG
AttachmentSize
2-18 closed 930am CST.xlsx 13.4 KB
 
jrshawndesh

I tried doing scalping but I guess it’s not for me....
nway I already on to usdjpy. Like you said Hewitt I am ready to catch tht 40 pips on the way down if not gonna exit at 110.65.
Mostly I trade head and shoulder before the second shoulder completes,so that I can open more position as it goes. If not exit above first shoulder.

 
Rookie

jr, the easiest way I have found to the scalp is to find a wave that has completed, I particularly like a V shape where PA has completed one leg and is just starting out on the opposite leg "W" are good and so our "M's" but the sharper the pivot is the stronger the other side is likely to be and have the momentum to complete the pattern.

The same will work after big news events after the whipsaws are over. After the PA is left say 50 pips north or south of the major trend.
I can assure you after the PA travels sideways for a bit it will return to the mean. Just be patient and wait for the drop back. I call theses swimming pools or garages and I look to complete the last leg of the pattern.

All PA no matter what will always return to the mean, Its called mean reversion. Just look for a pattern asking to be completed.

 
ffchen94536

Rookie,
The gap /overnight trading sounds logic and interesting. I think it might be used in daytime for people who can not sit in front pf the screen or for traders who want to do easy way.

 
skucchal

This is a great thread to gain perspective. I prefer to see the relationship between a 300 day and 50 day (the 2 most powerful trends for long term), and in particular USDX. Currently (since July 2018), 50 day average is above 300 day average...so strength is visible across every USD pair.

I don't track USDJPY. but would suggest caution if shorting the pair.

Crosses are confusing to me as volumes can be low. Relationships on crosses are complex and pure technical plays may be more profitable...eg I always struggle to explain a fundamental trend between AUDNZD (similar interest rate policies, similar economic environment, few differences in trade deficits Vs rest of the World, NZD is a very very small player in Global demand for that currency).

 
skucchal

However, echoing Rookies first post, while Long Term is a good perspective, it's hard to trade it and hope for outsized gains...personally, I prefer to go down 1 level to a H4 and trade a 10 day trend (being ever mindful of what the long term trend is)

On a H4, the same relative relationship holds for me. I watch the relationship of 50 (9 day trend), relative to a 300(50 day). If 9 day trend is above the 50 day trend, it's dragging the 50 day trend upwards...which is easier if 50 day trend is itself above the 300 day trend.

Currently all the structures seem to be shifting...so caution is my game. If I am lucky to make 10% in a week(often in a single trade), I am thrilled...I just cash in and wait for a move I am SuperConfident about.

 
2mjventures

@skucchal.... I like your viewpoint on trading. As much as I would love to successfully have long term trades, I am not confident enough in the system to allow it to work and end up giving up profits.

 
skucchal

Thanks 2mj...the other personal perspective I'd like to share is about leverage.

A simple analogy explains it for my simplistic brain. Imagine trying to wield a really long spear with a very heavy head. Its hard. The heavier the head, the closer you must hold the spear near the head - especially if you are holding it with just 1 hand. If it has a light head, you can afford to hold it really far (and with just 1 hand) for a long distance target (and still be accurate).

Similarly, I tend to take heavier leverage with shorter term positions (at times I go to 15x) but because the targets are closer, it is easier for me to manage my position. For a longer term trends, I keep my leverage much lighter (max 1x)...it makes it easier for me to manage the trade...and I can afford to hold the position for really long periods without damaging my account equity.

Sometimes (though rarely), I may even hold contra positions...eg a LONG (based on a 50 day) and a SHORT (based on a 1 day trend). The heavier leveraged position has a stronger positive effect on my account equity, compared to the temporary correction on the 50 day position.

Continuing with our spear example, it is easier to manage your spear with 2 hands as opposed to just 1 hand...hence there is a lot of power in looking at Ichimoku systems that simultaneously look at the current price action AND the historic AND the future. Most indicators like MACD, Stochastic, HMA, CCI are one dimensional (present only) and therefore somewhat limiting.

I would urge folks that are looking to trade longer term trends, to search for Ichimoku within forums to know more. There is lots of good stuff in these forums...my bible is Ichimoku.

Hope this helps...

 
alexbode

That a way!

 
cbn500

I find it very interesting to see how different traders implement their trades. If it is working I say keep doing it.
As for me I look at the chart and trade what I see. If I'm scalping I see results within minutes. Otherwise I see results in six or less hours.

I use Apiary Pivots for directional confirmation, I don't use any other indicator.

 
phillyflip

Thanks, Rookie for sharing all of this information. I've started taking to the forums more, especially as I try to improve my long term trading skills. For some reason I'm not able to open the spreadsheets found here, but I wanted to get your take on a pair I've been watching for a bit. EUR/GBP is approaching 0.865. It's only very briefly been below that level twice since Spring of 2018. On the D1 chart the Stochastic is way down at 5.89 and the RSI is also low, but not as rock bottom. My two concerns are the last 70 days show what could be called a head and shoulder pattern indicating a possible downward break, as well as the last few days showing some wicks, especially on Friday when it tanked, but overall I see an opportunity to the upside. It's 140 pips up to the last high and close to 400 to the next major resistance which gives good potential for a solid R:R ratio.

Thoughts on this one? Thanks in advance for your insights!

EURGBP 022319 D1.JPG EURGBP HandS 022319 D1.JPG
 
boss_hogg

I've been watching that too, philly. I'm a newb through and through, so I can't speak to this with any experience to back me up, but my thoughts regarding EUR and GBP are that Brexit is the only thing to tell that story and it could go either way. In the long run I think GBP will crush EUR, but a shaky Brexit with no deal could send it the other way for the short term. This pair is particularly sensitive to even the mere mention of Brexit. I will only take short term news trades on it for now.

 
phillyflip

You’re absolutely correct Boss. I had Brexit in the back of my mind and failed to mention it but I do think it has a direct impact, obviously on that pair in particular. I must say I’m not 100% sure why the pair goes the direction it does on Brexit news all the time but I’m going to keep an eye on it and see if there are some pips to be made. Thanks for your thoughts!

 
brownfloyd4

thank you for the infromation

 
dlaury7

Hey Rookie, your name is deceiving. I see you in every video presentation I watch.
The videos have been very helpful.Thanks for all your posts.

 
Rookie

@dlaury7, thank you for the compliment, frankly I think the name is still appropriate for my short time in the world of trading.
I saw one of your other comments, it's not about having big wins and big losses.
Its all about consistency. I'm going to bed so I closed out my trades for this evening and this test.
Shawn's Ham a day challenge is the name of the game.

LT 2-26 PM.JPG
 
corysiple

@boss_hogg
I agree about GBP and Brexit... it’s definitely good for short term / scalping.
As the drama drags on, I jump in time to time and try to grab 50+ pips then try to walk away.

Thanks everyone for your perspectives, it benefits us all...

 
Rookie

Not posted or kept this thread update much lately but I'm still trading this. Most of these trades were put on during Cutis class last evening.

Evening 3-13 Equity Bar.JPG evening 3-13.JPG
 
Rookie

This evening results placed these trades about 7 PM CDT and closed the few still open about 11:30 PM CDT.

Evening results.JPG
 
Billion

thanks for the info

 
Rookie

7 pm to Midnight 3/14 CDT
Not as successful as previous days but still while I was sleeping, I'll take it
These were placed with a .05 Lot and a 10 Pip TP.

Evening 3-14 7pm-midnight CDT.JPG
 
Rookie

Attached is my Friday closing and over the weekend trades,
With pips -64.3 and cash -$8.28 I'll call it a break-even almost.

AttachmentSize
3-15 over WE.xlsx 11.8 KB
 
Rookie

While the night trades made a few pips but no money.
31 $2.60 79.8 $10.92
51% W $8.32
$0.27
I took a few extra trades on this setup, did work out as I indicated in my notes.
I also could have left the open trades run until the London open but that's not my rule.

The good news is, it was negative.

Night Trades History 3-18.JPG
AttachmentSize
Nite Hist 3-18.xlsx 13.81 KB
 
rondelmenendez

I have been doing short trading up until this point. Now I will work on long trading and see which one I like before moving into the pre fund account. I read some pretty good pointers here to help me on this new trading style.

 
Rookie

Thank you, Ron, here is my trade from last night (still open)
I had caught this set exactly on the bounce, made sold 175 then took nap and was down more than that, then reversed with the market.

JPY Quad.JPG XXX-JPY Basket D1 London Open 3-25.JPG
 
joey88x

hey rookie, good stuff man. Have u done any work on hedging to balance out losing trades? Last tues, wed, and thur. i sabotaged multiple trades every day to work on a hedging technique and didn't do so well...i made progress in the learning dept. but drew my acct. down a lot and had to stop trying...i am on my way back up and won't try again until i'm up again...what's ur take on this subject please...thanx
I have been trading GBP pairs AUD, CHF, and i am scalping CAD today...All of the GBP pairs are now in a down trend and moving well, but are very volatile and making wide (20-30pt) swings. ATR is hanging around 196 points on the Daily and holding true.

gbpaud.png gbpchf.png gbpcad.png
 
Rookie

Joey, I have not taken the time to do the hedging work Burton and I discussed over the weekend.
MAybe I should say not planned, I will do a wobble from any chart. guess you can say yes to that question but it's not a formal planned hedge. Just sort like what Lindsey is doing in a four-hour chart.

Get your trend trading in now because after Wednesday it will go back to chop-chop...
Your charts look good, I look for highly correlated pairs and trade a basket when possible.

 
Rookie

Joey here's why I don't have a not of a chance to do that hedge testing and I still have 11 trades open for a .33 Lot.
I will leave them be until the Asain session. As they are all longs I might get lucky and see them close before that but I doubt is as the volume is gone for the day unless the USD makes a big move which is not likely.

AttachmentSize
3-25.xlsx 38.22 KB
 
joey88x

ok thanx bro, i will go thru the feed with u n burton and go from there...and yes, i'm getting it while i can...and to u personally...i apologize for how i came out the gate...i am learning some very valuable info from u and ur posts and i'm grateful, so i am sorry my friend...moving forward, i am with u...thanx again

 
Rookie

NP Joey, it took two to tango.

 
markpowers80

@joey88x, I suggest that traders NEVER experiment in their current working account (in your case, in your Silver). You have your Bronze account that you can experiment with, AND Apiary will let you open up to four other demo accounts, so there is NO REASON to experiment in your current account. As you have noticed, you can do yourself major damage to your progress in Beeline (ask me HOW I KNOW THIS).

Best wishes!

 
Rookie

On Monday Evenings Rex does a trade plan/development class,
In the trading portion, he may focus on scalping or long term such as a daily chart.
No matter what the Rex focus of the class risk management is always number 1.
And for those that need some practical knowledge of the one click, Rex uses it on every single trade.
In the class whioch I have viewed more than once...:)) Rex is focusing on the 1D chart however what he is teaching can easily be deployed on a 4H chart as well. My preference for time and price cycle reasons is the 4H hour chart.

Trade Plan Development
Type: Live Discussion (Trader Live)
Difficulty: Medium
Date: Monday, July 8, 2019
10:00 pm America/Chicago change timezone
Instructor: Rex Johnson
https://apiaryfund.com/calendar?event=53326&d=1#calendar-event\https://apiaryfund.com/training/discussion/trade-plan-development-22

 
FrankS

Rookie, in my view, scalping can occur at any timeframe provided the higher term trend is being accounted for.

Regarding the One Click functionality, though, I would like to see Alveo avail a similar function for Buy-Stop and Sell-Stop orders, not just for limit orders, unless it's already there and I'm simply ignorant of that fact. Straighten me out if I'm wrong!

 
Rookie

Frank, correct scalping can be done from any time frame, it is usually called threading the neede.
Hackinator showed me and I think he learned it from Shawn.

I only worry about the alignment of time frame on Sunday when I check the charts for the major trends and hunting reversals patterns.
Other than that I treat each time frame as it is. Read the chart - candles and take a trade or not.

Your last question, you're not wrong.

 
Rookie

The other day in a Jeff class the subject was preparing to trade. A similar chart to the one I have attached was presented.
I used to make one of the theses weekly except I used the degree of slope instead of the CCI percentage that I used on this chart.
So why did I stop, got lazy, did appreciate my results with bad cash management, lack of ability to read candles and charts? all of the above.

I had said in the class it was to much work. Well, I thought about that and it just didn't sit right. Apiary has well over 100 years of combined experience to teach us to trade and Shawn + Nate about 75 years combined along with the cash to fund us. Not to mention Ron has been very forgiving for my learning process, lord knows I need it.

So it's back to the longer term trade and the salt mine for me, attached is my weekly worksheet for the upcoming week. As the week progresses I will update it and if I'm not to embarrassed post it again next weekend.

Keep in mind when looking over this that CCI is not a trend indicator but a momentum indicator. Often the CCI or any oscillator can be mistaken for a trend indicator because they travel together until the momentum changes.

Part two of this new phase is to strictly adhere to risk management as taught by Rex and Kevin these days. And zero scalping less than an hour time frame. Both of these challenges have vexed me for too long,

Feel free to comment.

AttachmentSize
Apiary Pairs 7-14.xlsx 192.92 KB
 
lifetradingfx

FrankS, you can play Buy Stop and Sell Stop orders in Apiary, the same than you place your limit orders. That "pending buy" or "pending sell" button can be used either for limit orders or for stop orders. Try it and you'll see..

 
lifetradingfx

Thanks Rookie for facilitating the link to interesting classes, pointing them out for some of us with very limited time...

 
Rookie

YVW

 
howreedjr

Thanks Rookie,

This will be helpful. I will be working on this and other long term trades.

 
Rookie

Wishing you the best! Follow your rules and you will be successful.

 
Rookie

Follow up tp weeks chart of 7-14, while there was plenty of action this week including today during the summer doldrums especially the traders really just on news events in a big way. This is a good thing or we might not have enough volatility to trade.
Attached is my pips for the week, I traded a .02 Lot all week. Good thing or I would have lost more than the $50.00 I did give away.

Yes, I said to give away. Why well when I traded my H4 plan I did splendid when I came off not so much.
Monday up $25.00, Tuesday up $35.00 Wed loser, Thure made a made bucks back and Friday hung my self.
I should point out I count my days from when I get up during the London session until I stop soon after the NY open.
Monday went well.
Tuesday went well until I went to be at about 4 AM CDT and when I got up the few GBP pairs I left open totally reversed. Scalped to fix.
Wed was off my game and blew it, tried to scalp to fix it... bad news.
Thur medicare with a way to much scalping. Bearly made it out with my skin.
Friday Was good then I blew it by allowing losers to run. Which has been my issue all week except when trading my H4 targets.

Sunday is a new week Happy Piping to all.

So from Benn Hurr my lesson for the week,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPr_GBMu4O4

Pips Today 7-19.PNG
 
Rookie

Ahoy! a new week is here:)) another chance to be consistent. Arrg, what a thought consistency, the bane of my existence. But in looking back over 1/4 of a century, it's not a new challenge, just never realized what exactly what it was prior to Apiary's education in forex and emotional stability.

So what will I do differently this week to achieve the crown of consistency?
1. In my Ron account only trade my 4H plan, if I can't find a thread on the 4H or D chart just move on.
2. If I get bored or the finger wants to play move to a sim account. I don't use sim accounts as a rule except for testing now I will add boredom and playing.

News, its the last week of the month. News is light, I have included both Red and Orange news alerts on my sheet. Keep in mind this week it may be choppy overall with little overall change as a setup for next week which is very heavy with the news.

I was asked why I put the CCI numbers on the chart. I used to put the slope in degrees which I feel accomplishes the same goal but takes to long to draw out. Also, the CCI is the momentum indicator of choice and its just a click on the charts time frame to get the number. Especially when not trading a lower time frame I think the position/location of the PA is most important, next is the direction and the momentum of that PA direction. The Location comes from the chart and the momentum from the CCI.

Happy Trading this week! Best to all.

AttachmentSize
Apiary Pairs 7-22.xlsx 116.07 KB
 
boss_hogg

So far my main consistency is being consistently inconsistent. But I'm also consistently progressing, so there's that. C'est la vie. Still a lot to learn. I'll get there.

 
Rookie

Boss u & me both!! I think its an issue most face and why a trader will run out of money to get past the learning elbow to profitability and subsequently give up thinking they had failed.

Robert Allen made millions on coaching "Fail your way to Success".

As Benn Franklin proved they his scientific methods and copious record-keeping if you do not give up, you will succeed, even if by accident!

Have a great and consistent week.

 
Rookie

Done for the day,
So I placed a few trades prior to going to bed last night, got up and presto.
My plan says .50 is my target, its hit I am done for the day.
Its 4 am CDT and 9 and UTC.
If I want to trade more and I'm telling you my fingers are a little eager
but as I said in my last post I will have to move to a sandbox until tomorrow.

all trades were, 02 while they all did not hit their target, 3 out of 5 did, I'm ok with that.

Happy trading.

Done for the day.PNG my day is done.PNG
 
skucchal

Very Nice....Congrats Ed!!!
I know - "What a Feeeling!!!!"

Screenshot_20190722_204106.jpg
 
Rookie

Done for the day,
I closed out about 10 minutes after the London open, I had placed the trades at the end of Rex's class.
I closed because my .50% target was hit and the overall market PA was shifting.
Back to sim account now.
All trades were.02

@skucchal, indeed!

Happy Trading

7-23.PNG 7-23 return 710 AM UTC.PNG
 
Larry Shinabargar

Great Job Rookie. Keep it up buddy

 
Rookie

Thx Larry and that I intend to do!

 
Rookie

However there are the days, here is a little 5M cast about making better decisions. https://www.tradingview.com/shows/real-vision/mental-game-of-trading/#av...

Today I did not trade well at all. I broke several of my rules including the most important rule of when to close the trades and go have a beer.

Usually, I place my trades in the late afternoon or early evening and lately around 9 or 10 PM CDT.
However, do to my unrest as to the market was relatively flat and upcoming news I opted not to.
I got up about 3 AM CDT and subsequently place my usual number of trades on the H4 Chart. 3:30 Am image.
Generally, this is not a good time as the market bias will shift soon.
However, as most of the news was over I was thinking the bias change was built in.
I went back to bed. Getting up at about 6:30 CDT for Jeff's class I find my trades in the hole about 150 pips. Not Kewl.
I usually work out of this by hedging with the trend. As I generally trade with the trend, it works well for me.
That said as was pointed out last night in class and again this morning in class, being successful in doing this is a positive reinforcement of bad trading.

So what was bad about this trade. I attached one GBP trade as my example but there were all very similar.
Note while I did enter on a bearish candle (4H chart) I did not wait for it to close.
Then I went and took a nap. NP with that. Ok, then price reversed.
I get up and place several hedging trades,
I get my daily return from -1.50 to a +.60 and here is my real issue. At that point, I had a few trades left open and I was past my daily goal of .50% but I refused to close these negative pips even knowing I'd still be .60%. This gambling stubborn greed plain and simple. I had even said to my self closeout you made your daily goal, to boot the market had retrace 50% which is great for such a hard moving bull move, but I gabled, I know better it will be a short whipsaw and back down to a 75% retracement.
Ok so now I am committed to breaking my rules. PA goes up and backs down to within a -.10% still very good considering. Now close out the rookie. Nope, not me I want the rest of my pips... Well, that was the last chance and all she wrote. Now 1% short and growing negatively I shut down at 1. or so which by the time Alveo closed all it was -1.8%.

There is no excuse for this type of gambling as a trader.

Another shocker was when I reviewed my attached spreadsheet and the winner vs loser amounts.

I am reviewing this trade so that maybe it will help me to further internalize my error of not wanting to close a few pips which can also be called ownership bias in the corrective mode of mental adjustment and maybe another trader with a similar issue can learn not to repeat the same mistake over and over again..

Yes, I have already placed tonight trades...

Happy Trading to one and all! well not them outside the Apiary circle..:))

7-24 pips today.PNG 7-24 330 CDT H4 trades.PNG GBP Pairs example.PNG
 
Rookie

Well, another day and another dollar in reverse...LOL

t seems historical I do very well on Mondays and Tuesday and not so much on Wednesday or Thursdays with Friday being open. This isn't new for me. and has continued for over a year now.

What's the difference ion the days, I have to say news and choppy volatility. Which is why I am trading the 4H chart. However, in looking back I am not waiting for the setup and thus forcing trades and over trading to play fix-it mode.

So short again today of 425 pips... bad rookie, I have made and picked up a few and maybe finish up short 350 pips.

So well how to fix.
Back to the plan.
1, maintain min 1:1 risk-reward ratio
2. Stay on 4H or greater chart
3. Trade only setups that will meet the stands of the risk-reward ratio.

Easy peasy, right!

Happy and stress-free trading to all.

So just another note about the Daily Box located next to the Ppps Today Box,
The pips today is accurate for this session, the Daily Return is accurate as well but does not include any of your costs.
Thus and particularly if your a scalper or trade pairs with higher spreads this percentage can be very misleading.

For example, the last time I did a lot of scalping my daily retune was 60% but when I ran the spreadsheet I actually lost money.. This is one of the main reasons I not longer will scalp for anything less than ten pips.

While the daily return box provides a good guide I might suggest that a goal-orientated trader got down the starting profit in the orders history box and at the end of the session will have a much better picture of the real progress.

 
Rookie

A quick wrap up od last week, is same as the previous week, great on Monday & Tuesday and not so much the rest of the keep.

I have identified a few problems with my trading and would you think it has something to do with rules! if yes, you would be correct.
1. wait for the trade setup, do not force them,
2. if in a bad trade close them early, I got that one correct.
3. Do not go off the reservation to fix a trade or series of trades that went south. Take a break and wait for the next setup.
4. I lost 3 times the pips fixing a few closed trades than the trades were closed for.
--------------------------------
Moving on and taking responsibility for my shameful contribution to the big boys.

Attached is my 90% completed worksheet for this week.
Not this is usually the biggest news week of the month, beware. Both the EURO and the USD have a major item on deck.
My plan is to trade time cycles aroung the scheduled news event days by being flat during that time.

Also attached is my latest revision of my trading strategy plan.
Given my propensity to gamble and lack of patience, I may need a straight jacket next week.... just saying.

Trade well everyone and keep it light.

AttachmentSize
Apiary Pairs week of 7-28.xlsx 18.04 KB
Rookies Long Term.docx 24.41 KB
 
doug_8

I too have similar challenges. I have a two hour trading window that I prefer. Therefore I tend to force trades and take some that are weak or even 'unadvised'. I've jumped into gold in by prefund account twice and paid the price both times! But still learning...

 
Rookie

Doug, while I have not used the ATR for stops or close the trade recently but I think I am going to add it back onto my charts.
Also going to amend my rules to include no, not, absolutely zero counter-trend trading.

The question, what time and time zone is your two-hour window?
What Time frame chart are you using in that window?

 
FrankS

@ lifetradingfx : Sorry that I somehow missed your input to me. I now see that by clicking on the chart in the area above or below bid/ask that I want to place a pending order brings up a window with buy-stop and sell-stop options with same preset TP and SL spread levels (same as One Click) relative to my click point on the chart. It provides exactly what I had been looking for all this time. For some reason, I missed that functionality and have been doing it the hard way. Lesson learned! LOL. Thank you very much for your help.

 
Rookie

The attachment is from out Alveo back office, this particular sheet contains my last two days of scalping trading because I could not find and decent long term trades to enter.

I would like any insight for the traders on how best to utilize this tool.

With the view that there are for item, we can adjust to improve our trading.
This is what we can/will change
H – Hedge
T – target
S – Stop
L – Lots

Thanks,

Happy trading.

Back Office Stats Tool.PNG
 
FrankS

First, Alveo back office? Forgive my ignorance as I am unfamiliar with that. So, where can we find and download that file on the site? It's definitely the sort of info collector that looks highly useable.

In my opinion, each strategy that we choose to engage should have a dedicated sheet. In that manner, we can see for ourselves what the bottom line is for each, provided the number of total trades is the same for a balanced comparison. I would also be interested in knowing which pair returns the most based on my choices of strategies.

Great contribution, Rookie! Thanks.

 
Rookie

To find this chart in Apveo open your order history
Then right-click on it as you might to export the file to a spreadsheet
only don't, drop down to the lower tag and "order stats" and hit enter, at the top are the two calendars to select your period of trades to look at.

Unfortunately to match this date rage to the Apiary stats page is not possible but such is life.

Trade well and enjoy the process.

 
Rookie

Just a short recap of the last two weeks and of particular this news week.
I could not find many trade setup for longer-term trading. A few but they were not in abundance.
I attribute this to the looming USD news and trader risk aversion.
So my itchy finger did some laid back scalping (5-10 pip trades)

Volatility is great and that's what we trade. Historically I trade relly well Mon & Tue, mixed on Wed and not so much on Thur with Fri being a so-so day depending on the bankers.

For over a year I am stuck with repeating this cycle on an almost weekly bases. Clockwork orange:)
My observations without deep-diving into data with SQL quires to accumulate mountains of empirical data is that;
My day starts after Tokyo opens.
Sun-Mon very trend following.
Mon-Tue trend following but shorter duration cycles.
The tue-wed market is mixed and set for reversals.
Wed-Thur chop-chop and outside ranges abound
Fri ok usually slow to choppy but watch out for bankers spikes.

As such I have identified my nemesis, "the out-side-range" is a sucker's play.
So how to beat this rascal at its own game.
If we watch the Shawn example he continues to trade thru the range until it returns to the mean. Works for him because he has earned a large bank account. Doesn't work for me because I have not yet earned the same sized account.
Alternatives and options are the key to compromise and overcome almost any situation-position.
Given I can not avoid outside ranges, I mean they are going to happen no matter.
my solution is cash management, in combat, we call it getting small.
So in almost 100% of the instances like I keep adding trades but the PA keeps moving away.
Adding this position breaks my risk management run of 2% risk max and over leverages my account until I hit my line in the sand which is 1%-2%. Obviously to fix this is strick adherence to my rules and stay small.

Another issue for me is an outside range is almost always opposite the major trend, I am usually trading with the major trend, not the minor trend of different, no more counter-trend trades. That said once the outside range is in motion and my layering is now closing with negative pips a fix-it mode is called into action.

What can I control;
This is what we can/will change
H – Hedge
T – target
S – Stop
L – Lots

Not revenge trading but a genuine planned fix-it mode. So if short 50 pips I plan 5 counter-trend trades of 5-10 pips and keep on trading. When the fix is complete, reevaluate the situation to keep counter trending or plane for the retracement back to the mean.

Part three of what I can control is the lot size. Not usually an issue for me as I am usually small anyway. Normally if the spread id 1 or less a, 02-,03 Lot and if over 1% spread a .05 lot is used. So if I lost 50 pips at, 03 I might use a .05 in fix-it mode to make my previous cost back as well.

Part four and I am sometimes already doing this, is what Lindsey has called a Nightengale trade. Where a trader sets up a hedge in a non-correlated pair. I am usually trading two pairs that are either correlated or not so this is an easy one for me.

The key obviously is in the head, between the ears, psychology to follow the planned rules.

Anyway, that's where I'm at with the lack of longer-term trade setups.
Hopefully, now that the major news is past the market can smooth out a bit for trend following.

Happy and enjoyable trading to all.

 
Rookie

Attached is my weekly momentum guestimates.
I have made some minor changes to the columns.
I have not added the interest chart as it doesn't arrive in my mail until Sunday sometime, usually.
That's said I did check every pair with the mataf index tool
A point of note about the news this week, the EURO has no red or orange news...

As always any constructive comments or criticisms are welcome.

Happy Trading.
------------------------------------------------
Thx LS

updated chart with the interest table.

AttachmentSize
Apiary Pairs week of 8-4.xlsx 421.9 KB
 
Larry Shinabargar

I like your layout, Keep it up Buddy

 
Rookie

Sp my trades went well today however the day did not start out that way and had to close two trades that the news had a large impact upon. I really do not like 100 pip losses that is my risk tolerance boundary. Then entered my fix-it mode I.E. took a break...
Returning to the arena changed my tactic to trading off the weekly chart and entering off the 4-hour chart. I know that 100 pips in a session especially after the opening is open is nearly impossible. So my TP was set at 100 pips with a SL of 50 P to make me feel better. then after watching a few trades hit 75P and slide back I concluded if the get past 50P and close them, I did just that.

All in all it was a good day for watching trading videos and researching price action strategies.

Getting ready for the Curtis allignment/momentum class and the Rex "whats amatter you" Cash management for dummies if I can stay awake.

Happy trading tomorrow is just beginning.

Enjoy.

Mon LT.PNG
 
Rookie

The above trades were close with no unrealized pips.

So I like to place trades in the evening before I go to bed, or I get up and place them by 9-10 OM CDT and go back to bed.
I had a hunch tonight would be a good night for the US dollar to keep up a bit. Using the 4H chart so these trades could close before the London open at 2 AM CDT I place a few trades after Curtises class and several at the beginning od Rex's clas and I closed the last few when my target for the day was exceeded at 11 PM CDT.

All the planets lined up in a row and bingo! Problem is now I'm wound up and don't want to go to bed.

Good Nite all another trading session in 3 hours...LOL, my alarm clock will not be set...LOL

Enjoy.

Kewl Hour!.PNG
 
Norma Jenner

Ed Thanks for sharing your good benchmarks! Really nice results.

Usually I place some CCI trades about the same time using H4 but if I plan to exit near London Open, sometimes H2. I usually end up exiting long before planned because the moves are so good overall that I don't want to give them away with a London whipsaw.
The CCI trades usually almost all agree with your XLS above. This far into a week, after a powerful Monday, it's expected that the H4 CCI correlation with your weekly XLS might differ. Tonight, eight pairs had opposing signals.

Fun. Tx

 
Rookie

Norma, thanks for the review and taking the time to look over my spreadsheet. While I do think we are inline for a significant change in direction with several pairs over the next couple of the week, I agree with you but the shift happens almost like clockwork ever Wednesday and lasts another three days Could be why the bar chart forecast is for a three days momentum pattern.

Again thanks for the feedback.

PS, perhaps it was a good idea I decided to sleep in last night. The Tuesday am turmoil indicated a lot of PM shifting was going to occur.

 
Rookie

Morning fellow pip rader traders.
Got up this AM and looked over the news then charts and said to self, it's Friday but looks like a good day to the scalp. Of course, you scalpers would say every day is a good day to the scalp.
So I started with EURUSD at a 2 pip wobble at a .03 lot, then with the CAD and USD news switched to GBPCAD with a, 05 lot to cover the increase in the spread.

While I think the GBPCAD retracement is not over and this is my growth, I'm done for the day instead of pushing to an eventual loss.
Even as I am typing the pair has dropped another 25 pips. Ok maybe not such good timing on my part but I do think the bulls will come back at least one more time with a healthy spike which could, of course, clean me out, ever happen to you??

The 1st attachment I'm sure most folks are used to, it is a good general guideline for how a trader is doing that day, I say generally because the daily return does not reflect the gross less the expense (bottom line).
The second attachment is for the last 100 trades and that profit quoted does reflect the gross less the net, your true financial progress.

I fully understand why Apiary starts off with the emphasis on PIPs but once you hit gold levels the emphasis needs to shift to real dollars earned culminating monthly on the 29th,

Happy trading, have a great and restful weekend. Maybe even sleep some, remember what sleep is?

pips this morn.PNG Cash this morn.PNG
 
minielye

Good morning Bees. It's Friday and I'm reflecting on my trading week. I am newly funded so am trying to stick to my plan. I am leaning towards trading the daily charts. I find it far less stressful. I was doing well then I made some errors and lost a few trades. I'm not down much but with the daily charts, I am putting larger stops. I am also learning how to let my trades run. I need some advice here. When do I get out of a loosing trade. My loosing trades have hit their stops but while I'm in the trade, I'm not sure if I should let them run because they can turn around and go the other way. Anyone here have a certain number of red pips then get out? Advice would be much appreciated.

Eunice

 
Rookie

Hi Eunice, congrats on the funding, long term trades are a knack I have not mastered yet.
I set my target but always getting out around 50-100 pips and not letting the trade roll on for weeks at a time to effectively take advantage of the trend.

As for my stop. I set it at support or resistant depending on which way the trade Bias but not more than 100 pips as that is my risk tolerance level.

That said and maybe I very likely way wrong on this is we do not have enough equity to surely trade long term so I'm thinking a shorter-term swing trade is better os 50-100 pips and a 25 pip SL, the trade either goes your way or not, as long as the SL is = or > than the 15M PC (ATR or small multiple thereof)

Don't know if that helps but happy trading you are doing really well.

 
Rookie

Attached is my guesswork for the vomming week, where od the chop-chop ahead.
Almost every pair is oversold and a few overbought... change is in the wind and waiting for the catalyst.
My guess that will occur the week of September 1st and the new trends set the following week.

With an average week for new but with the absence of EUR news, it looks to be a week much like the last two.
CNY News on Wed & Thur and of course trump Tweets are always fun.

It might be a good week to trade with correlation or the lack of.
My guess is day trades will be fine but maybe with shorter ranges, swing trades may face a real struggle to avoid session reversals and long term traders might be able to island-hop over the noise.

That's my talking head two pips worth for the week.

Enjoy and trade well.

AttachmentSize
Apiary Pairs week of 8-11.xlsx 25.41 KB
 
Rookie

Thought I would share this experience. I have a sandbox where I recently decided to start learning to trade with larger lot sizes, mainly the .10 that Shawn uses. However, I do not have the ability to waive the 5% rule as Shawn. It's ok its not a 50K account either.
So Monday and Tuesday I lost about $650.00 mostly trading Gold. Today I made it all back plus a bit and got out. Yes, I was a happy camper.

Then I saw a supper set up and said oh what the heck I'll get back in, This breaks on of my major rules on engagement, once you're out stary the heck ou! no matter what you think or think you see!!!!!

Ok so I ignored my rule, in fact, it hardly crossed my mind I was thinking another $700 bucks in the same day!

Well, 15 minutes later and I closed out at a -4.38%giving all back to my starting point for the day.

As I have done this very same thing just a few times previously, my rule is valid on the surface. Wh? I get out because the PA is gone volatility has left and its a break time. I Learned today it is a consolidation time and the price action is about to change its Bias. And had I changed my bias with it could have been my biggest day ever instead of the worst.

Food for thought.

BTW my regular account did just fine at +.53%... all longer-term trades.

 
Rookie

These day's trades were from Monday I think, I usually place them in the evening CDT after the spread goes down, if I miss my window I will wait until after the London open If I'm up and if I miss that time next window id an hour or two after the NY open. However, the mataf volatility says the best time is a few hours after GMT when London is underway and ends a few hours after the NY open.

I usually trade a 4H window after confirming the trend but if time is of the essence will sometimes use a 2H chart. What I attempt to do is get a decent idea of the time cycle and the pips available to travel which is usually from 25- to 50 pips.

I will pick a currency that has a good slope across its group and enter several trades at the same time. The logic being trend following and correlated pairs. I have also noticed I have a very heavy bias to sell, not sure of any pros and cons for that bias.

I will also adjust my SL according to the pair's volatility, for example, an EU might be a 10 pip SL and a GU as 25 pip SL so I will not always have the best risk ratio.
In this set after checking back in may 30M to an hour after I noticed 3 of my choices were not moving. Upon checking the Plot Trades they would have hit their targets. So a better logic to simply closing them might have been to recognize the consolidation and set up stop orders for a break out trade. So maybe next time.

I did have several good sessions the week but traded a lot in a sim account as I started using a .1 lot size. I'm here to tell you a .1 can change the equity landscape rapidly in both directions. For me as in any time frame when the volume is gone, I get out, my nemesis is to stay out. If I had followed my rules for that my account would be up to 2K for the week and not down 1K... Oh, the attachment was not at .1... I'm not quite that confident yet.

Oh well trade on and learn,

Have a great trading week all.

seven trades.PNG
 
Rookie

My weekly chart is attached.
I have eliminated the Day column as not needed for weekly planning.
I have added a das-R to some notations, could mean reversal but usually just a brief retracement.
Don't have the interest table for this week yet... so that page is no updated.

You may not the BarChart has more 100% Buys-Sells than I have ever seen. This week is going to CHOPPY plus.
While I think the major movers are off another two weeks I could be very wrong. Heads up!

For the US we have Mr. Powel speaking and for all, we have the Jackson Hole thing going on in the midst of heavy EUR news.
And of course, we do not know exactly when President Trump will bless us with a tweet. I am will bet it will be before Mr. Power speaks and a few times during the symposium.

Perhaps a good defense of stop orders would be wise, as I am never on the right side of Trump tweets. New NP but surprises is an issue.

Oh, notice I have carried the CCI monthly and weekly reading forward, By reading across the weeks a trader can get a reasonable idea of the week's momentum and direction. No nothing is written in stone but this is a game of probabilities I just attempt to put the probabilities in our favor.

Trade cautiously this week and enjoy keeping it light.

AttachmentSize
Apiary Pairs week of 8-18.xlsx 26.15 KB