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Todd's HMA Strategy

 
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alouash

Todd's HMA Strategy

Dear Bees,

As part of the Silver 3 accomplishements, I would like to submit to you my trading strategy for your opinion.

I am very conservative. Since I have discovered this Todd's strategy, I have been using it because it works best for me and it's easy to use. It's confortable. Now, I am so used to it that I am even afraid to try other strategies to avoid bad results and confusion.

Charts: 1HR

Indicators: HMA (10) and HMA (200) and MACD (24,52,18).

I open long positions when both HMAs are going up and the MACD > 0 and if at least the 1HR and 4HR chart are alligned.

I open short positions when, obviously, boths HMAs are going down and the MACD <0 and if at least the 1HR and 4 HR charts are alligned.

At firts, I set up the T/P and 2 ATRS and the S/L at the last change of direction of the HMAs (one or the other) but now I just set both of them +/- 20 pips.

My position size is 0.2. This enables me to diversify and never take a too big a loss.

 

However, I am not sure to become a good trader if I always trade just this one strategy and don't master other aspects of trading.

Also, I discovered that most brokers don't have the HMA on their platforms and if they have it, it cannot be set to change color once it goes up or down so it's more difficult to use. So this strategy seems applicable only in Alveo.

Looking forward to your comments!

Happy trading!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tue, 10/03/2017 - 3:57am
 
caldas

Thanks for sharing :)

 
ddyjak77

Congratulations on finding consistent success with one good strategy! This is much harder than it sounds. If you can do that successfully over and over, you are a great trader!

Still, it's always good to expand your knowledge and skill. You could try backtesting the same strategy with different MA's if the HMA isn't available in your other platform. Also, as you keep trading successfully, just be a student of trading concepts. Read books and articles, watch analysis videos on YouTube, whatever. when something really catches your interest, test it out in a practice account. It never hurts to learn more about your craft.

 
Charles Moeller

Congratulations on finding a winning strategy.

Note that HMA can be found on at least some of the other platforms.
TOS (Think Or Swim) has it.

 
Erik

Dear Alouash,

Maybe tha attched HMA whish I use in MT4 can help you?
Because you can change al the parameters and colors for this indicator.

AttachmentSize
HMA4.ex4 21.62 KB
 
rcneefe

Thanks for the post Alouash and Erik TY for the code

 
rthartley

I use the default 21 period HMA along with MACD at the default settings as well. I've also added the SAR indicator set at the default settings. Used together, when they all align, it's proving to work well. I finally got to Gold 1 earlier today and plan to continue doing the same thing I've been doing for the last month or so. I guess I doing the same as you with one added indicator. Good luck to you as you progress.

 
alex.barac

This strategy is very tough for me, it doesnt fit my personality. I am more of a short term guy with very small risk for larger reward.

 
ronm

Thank you for sharing this strategy. I find it very rewarding. I wait for an alignment using the 4 TF's, Daily, H4, H1 and M15. I usually don't look at MACD. I enter during break out on the 15 min chart and set my stop loss on the last pivot low. I place multiple 0.01 lot size trade with a distance of at least 1-2 pips in between positions (sometimes tighter when i see that the trade is going in the direction i am expecting it to go). I close all open trades when i am satisfied with the overall pip gain regardless if other trades are at a loss. So far i'm getting 100+pips daily using this strat spending an average of 30-45 minutes.

 
rainsome

I find that the 10 HMA change from Dwn to Up is good way of identifying when a pullback is over to get back into a trend when price is above the SMA 50 and candle closes back above 10 HMA. Thanks for sharing strategy.

 
Alaa

thanks for sharing .. i have something u might like .. if u like to trade on other brokers platform mt4 .. i know an indicator that is the same as hma .. it changes colors and has the same attributes to it u only have to set one thing the period .. which is 10 and 200 .. you can go to market tab bellow in mt4 and search for TrendViewer indicator .. download it its free .. and enjoy :)

 
Shailesh Saxena

Hi Alouash.

Thank you for sharing your strategy.

From my experience of several years of trading, I can tell you that if you have found the strategy that works for you profitably, then please do not try to look at other strategies. I did that mistake and have not been able to get myself out of the "addiction" of new strategies.

My mentors have always told me that trading should be so monotonous that it becomes "boring" for you. That is when you will make money. And I think we all trade to make money.

HMA is a common indicator that every modern platform should have by default. If your platform does not have it, and it allows coding, then you may be able to code it. The formula is available on the internet.

Wish you lots of success.

 
arrais03

I'll give it a try.

 
docawofeso

the HMA helped me so far

 
jhellem1

Thanks for the strategy I am going to try it out.

 
Shred_It_Ralf

If you are finding that you are getting good results from this strategy then you should concentrate on geting better by executing your trades as well as possible.

Could you tell me how many trades per day you are averaging? How much time do you spend looking for this set-up and is it profitable.

Thanks for sharing and good luck!

 
jprice209

I've found using HMA 10 and HMA 20 together is a good combination for showing a reversal about to occur. These 2 indicators along with the RSI and MACD worked quite well for me.

As my dear old Daddy used to say ".... If it works, Don't fix it..."

 
hackdie AI

As for the Alveo HMA I want to know what if it can displace like the DMA. And what is the "Method" parameter under 'Settings' in the indicator.

 
Henry007

@alouash, for the primary i thought Todd was only concerned with 200 HMA is going up and the MACD > 0?

 
sbarke8

For some reason when I use HMA 200 I get nothing on the work space I'm using Digits =5, MAPeriod 200, and method = 10

What am I doing wrong? Sandy

 
Rookie

add more candles. try 1000.

 
6stringtao

@RNM

I'm having the same issue as sbarke8...HMA 200 only shows on my screen covering a handful of bars. This happens on the Daily and the H4, the lower periods seem ok.

I tried bumping the candles to at least 1000 but that didn't work. Any other suggestions?

Thank you

 
Rookie

spincal6, no more suggestions, I just tested it from 20, 50, 100, 200 periods and the signal line gets smaller every larger period set even with 1500 candles which are all I think we really get.

 
wja956

I add always MACD (24 52 18) into my considerations, but only as one part of many other informations. MACD alone or only with HMA did not work for me. Just my 5 cents

 
alangparker

Thanks for sharing Alouash,

I have been using a variation of Todd's HMA strategy as well. I am like you in that it has been very profitable, but I have been hesitant to use many other strategies. I like Shallesh's comment about sticking with what we're comfortable with. While we may have other tools in our belt for trading in differing market conditions, I think it's good to have our 'tried and true' boring strategy that we can count on day in and day out.

Happy Trading!

 
danandrysiak

Thank you for sharing, I can see how this works

 
garry.dillon

Thanks for sharing. I'll do some testing on this.

 
tradertool

If you are already using two different moving averages, you do not need to use MACD. MACD is two moving average crossover. It measures the distance between two moving averages. The only reason you may want to use MACD and still use two MAs are to spot divergence.

I also would like to use support and resistance for stop and target rather than shear mechanical ATR.

I am glad this strategy works for you.

I like the timeframes you use. I also agree with your conservative trading lot size.

Are you still utilizing the strategy after almost a year?

 
denpips

I use Todd's strategy as well. It got me through level 1 gold. I think a lot of us have the same problem. We say " this is it I found the strategy that finally works!!! I am going to trade it 100 times take notes and all this data." After 10 trades ok I need a different stategy. I have gone through so many strategies but never gave them a chance. I finally stuck with this one and said no matter what I am going to make this my strategy. And it worked! Tough in the beginning but I worked on what I thought would better work for me. Here is where I found more success. I trade the 1hour chart use the 5min chart to set stop losses and when to get out of a trade. I never check the other time frames to see where a level of support or resistance is.

1. Find a chart that has an obvious overall trend direction. looking at the chart in the widest view. Choppy or not sure I stay away.
2. Only long if above the 200HMA or short if below the 200HMA
3. If it just broke through the 200HMA I stay away. I like price action away from the 200HMA not looking to retest that level.
4. If I see resistance or support level that price action keeps failing to break through I never buy at that level. I look to buy looking to retest the level and get out at the level or close to the level.
5. I never buy after a big move with long long bars then consolidation. You get the old fake breakout to continue then it reverses for a loss. Honestly I try to stay away for breakouts all together which can be tough in a big sloping trend. I try to buy before the levels making pips before price actions hits the level.

I look for several things to signal an entry.
1. HMA 10 I am looking for price action to reverse going the way of the overall trend of the chart. I wait for the HMA to lock after a closed bar at a 45 degree angle or steeper. The locked section I am looking at is from the middle of the last closed bar to the bar before that. Not the current bar moving up and down to the previous bar. If the HMA is flat I stay away. Ideally I like to see two bars going my way or several short bars all the same type bear or bull. Then wait for that 45 angle.

2.HMA 200 I want to see the same thing about a 45 degree or better angle locked. When I say 45 I picture a box around the last locked line of the HMA then look for a slant going my way that would connect the two corners. Even better if the slant looks steeper. I like the HMA to be going in a direction for a good length of time. Its a judgement call but longer the better. I especially stay away if it just reversed direction of overall trend.

3. MACD - I like to see the momentum going in my direction or staying at a steady level. I stay away when the momentum is going the opposite way off a cliff and heading to the zero line. I judge the momentum by the length of the bars getting bigger or shorter going opposite way or my way.

4. Signal bar- The last bar to close right before you enter. I will only enter if the signal bar is going in my direction. The entry bar I enter immediately after the signal bar closes regardless of the direction of the current prices action.

5. Stop loss - I don't look to set my stop loss past whichever is farther the swing hi/low or the SMA200. I look for a support or resistance level that current price action is respecting. If the swing high/low is close I might place the stop loss past that level if there is no sup/res level close to price action. I would only play the swing high/low if it was showing respect to some previous level as far back as I could see. I look to place the stop loss 5-7 pips past the level.

6. Target price - I try to use the 2x ATR. If the stop loss is going to be farther then 2xATR then I bump up the tp to what the stop loss is to get a 1:1 ratio. If I do this I watch the price action closely. If it comes close to my target price and starts to slow down I get out sometimes. Is it really worth it to stick it our for a few more pips.

7. Exit - I get out if the HMA200 locks and changes color or the MACD crosses the zero line. The HMA 10 is what I watch the closest. If the HMA 10 locks going the opposite way I get out. I usually try wait for it to lock at a 45 angle going the opposite way.

8. Lot size - 2% x Account size = max day loss Max day loss / 6 = max loss per trade. I like six because your not out for the day if you lose a few in a row. I also take the max day loss and knock off a few dollars just to keep me under the 2% for sure.

So this could all be wrong but for me it really started to work and got me through gold 1. I started out in gold using several other strategies and was getting no where. Then I changed to Todd's strategy tweaked it a little and it got me through to gold 2. Good luck to everyone and if you think something I said is crazy please tell me. I am relatively new to trading and look for any advice.

 
Icarus102

Thank You For sharing @alouash, I would Try this out too.

 
Dave G

I have been using the same strategy and have had good results with finding previous levels of support and resistance for my stop loss and take profit. After I have identified those levels and get the entry signal I check to make sure my risk to reward is greater than a 1:1 if I don't stand to make more than I'm risking I move on to the next trade. Still working on developing my skill with this method, but have been happy with how well its been working so far.

 
adamfetterscoder

Great job on finding something that works! I agree with some of the other bees that finding something that works consistently is great. Try to find other trading strategies if you want, but stick with what makes you consistent profits for sure.

 
tubamirabilis

I like the HMA strategy. I don't follow it as much as I should but when I do, it generally pays off so thanks for reminding me I should use it much more!

 
charlyalva

I've been using HMA since I started trading with Alveo and it's a great tool... It does work great most of the time if it is setup correctly with other indicators... I do never use it alone... I use it as 200HMA/20HMA and along with Pivots, ATR and specially Stochastic and MACD and eventually with RSI... My statistics reflect around 65% win over 35% loss using HMA since trading Bronze and Silver levels.

 
HelenSharita

i somehow miss this HMA strat anybody have a facebook and we can connect to help one another?

 
karen.dabek

I have been trading Todd's HMA strategy on the 5m in my silver 3 account to accomplish consistent application of the rules, I have a couple of refinements to try to filter out lower probability set ups.

AttachmentSize
HMA strategy.doc 60.5 KB
 
karen.dabek

This is my variation on Todd's HMA strategy which I have been using to create consistency in my trading and to complete Silver 3 with a strategy I can understand and have confidence in using. I am learning to see price action more clearly using this strategy. I have added a couple of filters to try to take higher probability trades.

AttachmentSize
HMA strategy.doc 60.5 KB
 
Rookie

Karen read the Doc this should work very well! While I prefer the CCI or even the Soch to the MACD I suppose its a matter of preference.
You might consider drawing a trend line and when PA crosses it, you have a breakout, if not you just follow the trend until not.

Good luck and happy trading.

 
karen.dabek

Thanks Rookie, so far it is working ok, I don't really like the imbalance between a fixed tp and the SL, but will see how many wins v losses and loss size before I make adjustments.

 
davidemile

I never heard of HMA before coming to Apiary. Thanks, alouash for posting your fine-tuning adjustments to Todd's strategy. I'm not confident on shorter ( 5-15-30 min) time charts, but the HMA makes it easy to see trend and the additional tools/rules are a good guide to determine when to enter. Well done!

 
timothymason3

I agree the HMA whether it 89 or 10 helps to determine when to enter a trade its not perfect but a good tool to use as well as other indicators

 
timothymason3

I agree the HMA whether it 89 or 10 helps to determine when to enter a trade its not perfect but a good tool to use as well as other indicators

 
hmanuel.nn2

SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD STRATEGY

 
gamabile

You are fortunate, or smart, to have found a system/strategy that works for you. If you feel you need to try others, scalping might be a good choice because it is usually very short term, so you don't have to abandon Todd's system in order to experiment. I still have some problems reading the price action and don't entirely understand most indicators so I would happily exchange my situation for yours since you find it comfortable, and though mine is not boring, it's not where I go for relaxation during he day.

 
bbvegas

Yes the 89 on the Hma is a helpful tool also
the Apiary Pivots is another good tool to incorporate

 
dlaury7

I like the hma 8 and hma30, I really like it when they both turn red.

 
klwilliams5000

Thanks for sharing! I am excited t try this, just learned about it today.

 
bestofyouhowtochange

Todd's HMA Strategy???????
If you have already found something that works for you, over and over again.
And as you feel fit for your personality, at the same time.
So forget about all the other strategies, because there are millions of them.
Just be doing what works for you, and over and over again my friend.

 
harrydmoore

I like the scalp it is fast and after listen to Shawn last week and to
BUY when it is going down !
Sell when it is going up !
reading the chart and knowing the value of the Dollar is it Strong or Weak?
I use a futures chart and can see the value of the dollar against other currency
the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, CHF
Also I set up with a high and low on my chart and always looking for the TREND!
I need to get my losses smaller that is hard,hard,hard.

 
Yadunath

You're right to think that you shouldn't be clinging onto one strategy or one method alone. I suggest you learn to use RSI and Stochastic as well. I will also think that waiting for 200 day average to trend will be a slow wait and you should try using other averages in place of 200 day average (unless you are already using EMA instead of simple one). Try experimenting with EMA vs. SMA. Last and not the least, don't rely too much on indicators alone...observe price action..!!

 
bbvegas

Been using the HMA strategy and went from 56 pips down to 19 pips down. Using the one hour chart

 
john_2

I've been using this strategy for awhile and it seems to be consistent on the EUR/USD. I use the 89/21 HMA, MACD on 5m for cycle position and Stoch on 1m to determine where it is in the current cycle. I've tried it on the GBP/USD with mixed results due to the increased range and volatility on that pair.

What I mean about the MACD and Stoch use is that while the MACD is showing the direction (in concert with the HMA), the Stoch helps to determine entry/exit points.

I also like the short term scalping wobble (like Shawn does) but it doesn't work in the beeline progression very well...AND you have to develop a thick skin. Let face it, I'm not as good as Shawn in this (duh!). :-)

 
123_1

Thankful for any helpful information that help to grow in trading

 
mickmckay

Hello 123,
A couple of bits of advice I can give you. Firstly just get in and trade lots and lots just to get a feel of the market. It doesn't matter what strategy you use or if you win or lose because you will be learning. Secondly if you are able follow Shawn and Nate in the trading room every thursday and also spend some time going over previous episodes. Dont be scared by what you see them doing but again learn and as you grow through the beeline it will become more evident to you what the markets are doing. Thirdly dont get too bogged down in a lot of other advice that you can easily get from other sources.
Happy trading

 
Raj-kv

Hello Alouash,

Thanks for your post. I have just reach Gold I level and it was Todd's 89HMA strategy that I have been using throughout my Silver level. Love the fact that it works with any pair of currency and with some practice can be a wonderful simple scalping tool (3 pips per trade). I tend to combine it with RSI(4) indicator on M1, M5 charts with success.

Wishing you the very best...

Happy Trading!

 
jim_15

Such good stuff!

 
jamesgleason362

I'm trying the hma strategy at the top . Hope to pull win/loss ratio up with it. Have been scalping on 1m and 5m charts but don't have the wable down yet still working on it.

 
rianlombaard

Hi Alouash,

It is always very good to have a successful strategy.

Stick to it but feel free to try out others, who knows?...maybe you will discover another one that suit your style of trading.

Happy Trading!!

 
leonsmith148

I also trade the HMA 89 strategy, that Todd is so deftly teaching. The HMA is an indicator of direction, not a trigger to place a trade. The actual trigger is when a level of support or resistance is broken.

 
jdrtradingco

I have adapted Todd's 89 HMA strategy to my trading. Working very well so far.

 
conradsto

I like his strategy.

 
conradsto

I like his strategy. The key to any strategy is initial position size and giving yourself room if the trade goes against you to recover. I start small and grow my trades as the trade moves away from my projected direction.

 
itjacksonsr

I'd say that it is probably the only system that I use.

 
PipStreak

I agree with you. Once you get comfortable with your trading strategy and it works for you, you need to stick with it. Over the several months I've been trading now, I have thrown my account into complete confusion switching from one strategy to another, changing indicators back and forth, and even blowing my account a few times. What a nightmare.

Now, I'm happy not being greedy, being a good loser, and being steadfast in my simple HMA strategy.

 
jude

Being new to Apiary, I am just learning this technique as well. So far, it is the best thing that I have learned here. I am getting fairly consistent with it, and I am realizing that the only times it is not working too well is when I am jumping in to trades too early, without verifying the trend. I sometimes get hurried to act on a trade without confirming the results. However, when I take my time and verify the setup, it works, and it works well. I am mostly using this technique on the 5m Chart, but I am looking to start increasing my time frame in order to catch bigger moves.

I am using the HMA (10) color turn as a signal to enter on the next candle. Once in the trade, I set my SL at a level that is well behind the pivot point or the HMA 200 (whichever is closest or makes most sense). After the trade moves a few pips in my favor, I begin to move my stop down to just behind the biggest candle of the movement, locking in some profit and assuring that the trade does not become a loser. I then activate the Trailing Stop and let it run. I am frequently getting 5+ pips, and even some 10+ moves, which seems pretty good for the 5m time frame. Right now, my biggest issue is developing the patience to assure a proper setup.

As for only trading one strategy that works consistently, I don't know why anyone would take issue with doing the same thing over and over while collecting money each time you did it. I thought that was the entire goal here. If I got paid $ every time I slapped myself in the face, I would A.) have a sore face and B.) be rich. Once you find a cow that produces milk, keep milking the cow. If you want to "dabble" with other strategies just for your interests, do it, but don't quit doing something that works just because you find it monotonous.

 
jerrypeter2020

I have found that higher the time frame, the more reliable the signals are that come from your indicators. Once I transitioned from the hourly to the daily my success rate went up significantly.

 
hackdie AI

Cheers to Todd Grantham, a good trend trader. Don't give up Todd!
https://apiaryfund.com/training/discussion/daily-forex-fanatics-1196

But is it just me or does it seem Todd was recently told to push scalping. Ha ha, he sounds like a trend trader trying to scalp. Time to pull the trigger Todd, wait it's not a swing trade, it's a scalp, ha ha.

 
j.berry490

alouash,

So glad this strategy is working for you. If you have the MT4 platform with your other broker, you can custom download the HMA from this site.

https://www.best-metatrader-indicators.com/

It is free to download it.

Happy trading

 
stefanos.moralis

I like this strategy. The simple is the best. Thank you alouash.

 
caflischmartin

As many try to achieve several houses or cars,You ca only use one at any given time.
When it works for you,thats great,you dont need more really !
you can definitely use another account to try other pairs,timeframes or whatever.

Any system will never be perfect and its good to be prepared for the non perfect time.

 
mehdivincheh

thank you for sharing this strategy.

 
andreww

good share

 
ddantev

I like it, seems simple.