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Trading the EUR/USD

 
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itrade2

Trading the EUR/USD

Hello, I would just like to start a discussion on trading the EUR/USD. This will be a place where we would share charts, trade setups, trades, trading ideas, best trading times, etc. Also, perhaps other traders can start similar threads regarding other popular major pairs like GBP/USD or even major crosses. Thanks.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 8:31pm
 
Matthew Smith

Interesting that the Euro has retraced almost 100% of today's move lower (1.3288 - 1.3243) now trading at 1.3280 when the pound is still near session lows. The two usually move with some correlation against the dollar but we may be seeing a break in that correlation today with each having separate fundamental events occurring this week.

 
kitsap1

We see proper divergence ( FIG 15 UTAH)on lower time frames but yet the M30 and H1 still have not came to the waterline on the Awesome Oscillator (MACD 5,34,5).

Patterns are everything.

We know that in a successful business, a pattern is recognized and the risk managed. If we want to have a business selling bananas, we see if people will buy a banana and never do it again. And if they do, we need to appraise the risk in providing bananas.

And our mind is optimized for pattern recognition. Imagine early humans as the 'gatherer' -- can I eat it (the berry) or will it eat me (the sabre tooth tiger). 97% of the function of the human mind is to match patterns. (There are things we are really very very good at!)

When the markets move a bit and reverse. We then put a Fibonacci retrace grid on the move and watch the usual places for retrace.

We watch an oscillator to gauge the range if the market retraces 50% and the oscillator shows reversal, then we know we may have a zig-zag of sorts and the Fibonacci expansion tool helps us identify the 100% value and our risk reward profile for position sizing.

Other times we see the market coming to the 61.8%, the 78.6% and CCI or our favorite confirmicator oscillathingy poised to hint at reversal.

The 127.2% and 161.8% are also likely places we will see reversals. Even more rare are the 23.6%, 88.2% and 100%.

another pattern we see is documented by Linda Raschle - where we get three consecutive drives of 127% and retrace of 61.8%

These are discussed and documented in H.M Gartly's 1935 tome on "PROFITS IN THE STOCK MARKET" pages 205 through 235 and Pasevento's Fibonacci Ratios book pages 43 - 45.

 
kitsap1

Awesome Oscillitare has came to zero and a Major Proform Pivot is present on the M30 and below.

EURUSD has retraced 38.2% of the move up from the 1.3027 low. A trading opportunity with Target of the last high (1.3288) as per Fig 15 UTAH will exist when your favorite trigger for entry is hit.

 
kitsap1

50% retrace of move down from 1.4246 to 1.2627 is 1.3435.
61.8% retrace of the move down from 1.4246 to 1.2627 is 1.3626

The Tunnel (EMA 144/169 pair) is at 1.3384/1.3429

The market has moved up 90 pips off the low from earlier today. This is a 127% retrace of previous move down from 1.3288 to 1.3214.

A new PROFORM Pivot has been posted on all time frames D1 and below at 1.33121

A 50% retrace of the move up from 1.3214 to 1.3312 is at 1.3263.

The M5 bar established a new AO peak. A reasable target for reversal is the Tunnel which is at 1.3268. If the market will correct to that level before making a higher high for divergence on the M5, the tunnel is a likely target. I will be looking for a reversal signal in the 1.3260 region.

 
kitsap1

Traders and investors are still focusing on Greek talks to approve austerity measures. "An agreement was close, but details over adjustment to pensions remained as a sole sticking point", according to Reuters. These Greek talks will be temporary muted, as ECB rate decision are approaching.

There are no expectations for any rate cut!

ECB will likely remain on the side-track with a rate cut, as some economic data improved in recent month, and they also dont want to make a noise at the same time with "Greek talks".
Grega - EWF

 
Matthew Smith

I am looking at this H1 chart and kind of chuckling as it is swaying back and forth from comment to comment from European Leaders about the Greek austerity deal. They have all agreed on apparently a number of fundamental issues, but there are still sticking points that have yet to be worked out. I usually put my faith in technical analysis but I have a feeling the fundamentals may rule the day. We found out this morning there was, in fact, a 1.3300 DNT barrier that was triggered and the stops were triggered above. We reached as high as 1.3322 but the sellers quickly emerged, as a close above 1.33 would warrant a move higher. Most likely the deals gets done but falls way short in terms of details and implementation ability. If this is the case, we could move lower (first testing the recent lows of 1.3233 and then possibly the top of the (144,169 EMA) channel @ 1.3200. On the other hand, if Mr Market loves the deal we could see serious upside, 1.3375 and then 1.3462. Good luck!!

 
donk

this morning was perfect for using the pivots for entries

 
donk

seems like all are waiting for next news release, lots of chop and spreads are fluctuating at this time

 
Chad

Was a good day for me picked up 21 pips this morning.

 
kitsap1

There is one BIG problem for the PIIGS riding the EURO currency; They all want ice cream and no one wants to pay for it. As Soon as the bill is laid out, we burn the Acropolis, Rome, Madrid and Lisbon.

We still don't have the bullish divergence on the M1 to set up the market and trip us into a buy.

The corrected classical pivots (anticipated highs and lows) gave numbers we found in our discussion. So no surprise there.

if EURUSD keeps pressing down we may end up witha major proform pivot LOW on M30 and below to signal us to take the trade long.

 
kitsap1

All evening the EURUSD created new AO peaks on the low side and giving us the same on the M5.

Currently we have a new AO peak low on the M5 that will be taken out before we can resolve the wave count on the high side.

It is worth noting that every once in a great while a C wave will reverse without providing an obvious divergence. NOTHING works 100%. But it works often enough that we can do very well.

 
Matthew Smith

So on all time frames up to the H1 bar we just posted a large proform pivot at the low of 1.3155. Looking the the M15 chart, you will see made a new low peak on AO and the bar on the CCI moved us out of the extreme (-100) area. We have already retraced 23.6% to 1.3190 and the next target I am looking for is the top of the EMA channel around 1.3209. If we stall there and move lower the target will be the expansion of 61.8% in the range of 1.3135. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is set to speak at 12:30 EST so be wary, as he tends to swing the market with his comments (about QE3). Good luck!!

euro.gif
 
donk

had a new high of 1.3310 then a retrace of 21%to 1.31465, would the next be up to 1.32498? given the fib retrace of 50%, currently headed that way. then a possible target of 1.29840 ?

 
kitsap1

As Matthew Smith asserted, the Market came to an extreme low at 1.31549. We know that when we get a price extreme with a new AO peak (M5 low in this case) we would reasonably expect a 3 wave correction.

From the time we got the next major profrom pivot on the m5 wit a divergence we could use the fib expansion tool as Matthew Smith did above

The 50% retrace came in around 1.3117 and allowed us to think if this worked out we would see a reversal in each of those regions. As time went on, we go a low at 1.3163 and placed our retrace line terminal there. That allows a terminal for the 3third wave at our usual suspect - the 100% expansion and that came in at 1.32023.

Other forces that are now working is Greek Riots (what is new), and S&P downgrades of Italian Banks. You may remember S&P ratings. They are the ones that held France at triple A while cutting US rating and the most famous appraisal of rating US Mortgage Bonds so well.

Or the real side of things we have the new weekly classical pivots. 1.3181 is the pivot, S1 is at 1.3042 and 1.3336 based on last weeks high (1.3320), low (1.3026) and close (1.3196).

We know from the M5 bar we need to take a low below the 1.3155 in order to get a divergence on the M5. Currently the last wave 4 terminal was at the 1.3105. Thus, I am watching the area between the 1.3155 and 1.3105 for the PROFORM pivot, divergences and a trend line break to show price is moving up.

But for now. On the H4 bar we have a move up off the 1.2623 to about 1.3320 and the fib-exp on that with the retrace line back to the 1.3155 (or 1.3135 where we anticipate a low) and we see the 100% Target at 1.3461.

As Donk allows. We have a data that allows a 1.3320 high to the 1.3155 low. The 50% retrace is at the 1.3238, for which if we are bearish is a very likely place to watch for reversal to get short.

Currently the M15 Tunnel is also at the 1.3238. The 100% expansion is at 1.3062 and the new week's classical pivot Weekly S1 is at 1.3042.

If we are Bullish, it may be better to wait and watch to enter long after the Fig 15 UTAH resolves with a positive divergence on M15 and below time frames and a major PROFORM Pivot is posted on time frames m30 and below.

The target Matthew Smith cited for this correction off the low before the new low has been hit and Donk has identified a viable possibility as well.

 
Matthew Smith

A few things I will be watching in this upcoming week. I have attached the Eur/Usd H4 chart so you can see what is in my head. First of all, the Greeks are having their austerity package vote on Sunday (as of now) but that is always subject to change. The market is likely to get over excited or overly not excited when the final details are released. From a technical perspective, on Friday we posted a low of 1.3153 with the market getting wary about waiting and waiting for the Greeks to make their minds up. We retraced a little more than 23.6% of the move down before ending the day. The AO is moving south and has yet to reverse and form a new peak and the CCI is beginning to move upwards but is still in big time negative territory. This makes me think we may get a rally on news excitement but we still will need to post new lows before we can move significantly higher. The previous low was on Feb 6 @ 1.3028. We will need to pass through the EMA channel around 1.3089 first, which may provide some support and even a reversal zone. If we test these lows we should see a new low peak in the AO and a pro form pivot will allow us to return to (0) on the CCI and possibly move higher. The expansion tool would suggest a move to 1.3425 area. Good luck out there and please share your thoughts!!

euro.gif
 
Matthew Smith

Good morning hive! I'm looking at the H1 chart today. On Friday we made a new low (extreme) that produced a major pro form pivot @ 1.3155. With the Greeks getting enough votes to pass the austerity deal the thought was that there may be some excitement and upside originally. The target was the 61.8% retrace of the previous move down (1.3320 - 1.3155) which came in @ 1.3258. We burst through that level and stalled at a previous pivot high of 1.3284. This produced a pro form and two bars later we made a new high peak on the AO. This signaled a reversal. So I ran a Fibo retracement of the current move up (1.3155 - 1.3284). After blowing through 23.6% and 38.2% we just crossed the 50% @ 1.3220 and touched the top side of the EMA Channel @ 1.3213. Our AO is still on the positive side so this move may have some room to move lower. The first target is to take out the channel. Then we need to test the previous lows of 1.3155 before we can make a new low peak on the AO. Nothing moves in a straight line and this can be reproduced over any time frame if you want to be a shorter trade in terms of time. Good luck out there and watch out for flying headlines!

euro.gif
 
donk

given that trading is on the lower side of bb's all morning would the bankers close be a good bet?

 
Matthew Smith

Donk, I do not personally use the bankers close setup (meaning I cannot endorse and dissuade you from using it) but here is the link from that recording.

http://my.apiaryfund.com/resources/recordings/new-york-close-trade?order...

 
kitsap1

Thank you for link to the banker's CLOSE trade.

The "big bet" on using the Awesome Oscillator is the propensity for it to return to zero. We know it does but we never know when or how quickly. So it goes wuth indicators as Goldilocks, this one is too fast and that one is too slow.

EURUSD moved down from the 1.3320 high to a 1.3155 low and retraced back to 1.3285. The 100% targete for that move down and retrace as per fig 15 of UTAH has been hit and the market is moving up. It is reasonable to expect at least a 50% retrace since the market tends to retarce at least 61.8% 70% of the time. That would bring the EURUSD pair back to the 1.3190 - 1.3220 region.

Currently I have CCI above -100 and a Major Proform pivot at 1.3126. I have positive divergence on the H1 and M30 bars and trading above the respective EMA 144/169 Channel. The AO has not returned back to zero on H1 time frame inciting the idea that there is more upside remaining.
This idea is not refuted by the usual array of oscillators on the H1 bar.

My posture for trades is with respect to the H1 bar CCI and major Proform Pivot. Though price action has retraced 61.8% of the move down from 1.3185 to 1.3125 It is only reasonable to trade what the market is showing.

I ran some analysis on the Daily Pivots points using data available in the History Center off the Tools menu of the MT4 platform.

We know that the market will trade at its pivot point about 75% of the days. If you pull the daily data from the history center, you will see that price crosses the daily pivot on 73.4% of the days since April 19, 2005. There has only been 2 days that the market has failed to trade at either its R1 or S1 value since 4/19/2005 and it has not traded at both the R1 and S1 daily values in the time surveyed (since 4/19/2005).

ON 50% of the trading days the market traded at either it's R1 or S1 value better than 50% of the time.

Whether the market has opened above or below its pivot point has some bearish or bullish consequence. The market traded at its resistance 37% of the time it opened above the pivot point and traded at its support 16% of the days when the open was above the pivot point .

 
kitsap1

Does this stuff work?

Here is a snippet of dialog with Matthew Smith at about a quarter after 6 pm last evening:
[2/15/2012 6:13:54 PM] John L. Thomas: what did you shoot for a reversal pt on this?
[2/15/2012 6:14:49 PM] John L. Thomas: we have 3002 by calcs
[2/15/2012 6:15:25 PM] Matthew Smith: M15 expansion shows 1.2983
[2/15/2012 6:15:44 PM] Matthew Smith: but 1.30 is a psychological level there may be a barrier in play

6 hours and 30 minutes later the market his 1.29823. EURUSD shows a bullish divergence on most charts but the m1. Chapter 7 of the 1st Edition of Trading Chaos shows the market usually resolves extremes and established divergence within 110 - 140 bars. We have exceeded 180 bars and relegates only a hint of hidden bullish divergence on the m1 bar.

The move down from 1.3190 to 1.2983 was without any significant retrace. the nature of it would give reason to think it would warrant minimum retrace of 38.2% Statistically only 1 time in 7 do we see less than a 23.6% and continuation.

As one very successful trader that taught me about ADX said, "these markets roll over like an old man getting into a hot bath."

 
Matthew Smith

It works! Ran about 9 pips past that on the next run down but pretty darn close! I'm looking at the M15 AO as it has just come off a low peak and needs to return to the waterline (0). The M15 EMA channel is sitting @ 1.3060 but we will need to take out our previous high of 1.3035 first. Once the AO makes a new high peak I will be looking for an extreme CCI number, a pivot, and a place to get short. Good luck out there!

euro.gif
 
Matthew Smith

Setting up perfectly, the expansion on the current move up is within 1 pip of the EMA channel!

euro.gif
 
kitsap1

The M30 and H1 bar each show the Awesome Oscillator above zero and lacking proper divergence giving a clue to a possible new high on this pair. The lower time frames allow the use of a Fib-exp off the most recent high to the most recent low to give a price estimate of about 1.3110. There are also allowances using the fib-exp to show 1.3220. The move down from the 1.3340 to 1.2990 shows a 78.6% retrace at 1.3240.

There are additional issues that come into play a sustained break of the 1.3220 level that could keep the market directed toward the 1.3500 and possibly 1.3800.

That said, I will be looking for a Proform Pivot in he 3110 area on the M30 and Above to signal the long entry. Correction to the Classical Pivots shows an anticipated low around the 1.3100 and a high near 1.3226. For Monday.

 
kitsap1

New high at 1139AM (Divisa chart) and new AO peak on M1. Implications as per Fig 15 UTAH of a new high after a 3 wave correction. M5 and m15 have proper divergence. M30 and H1 bars are yet to have AO come to zero. -- also points to a new price action high.

Daily bar EMA channel is now in low 34 and becomes a viable target after a drop below zero of AO on M30 and H1.

Hence, this would lead to look for higher high to get proper FIG 15 divergence on M1 and then the price action to move lower to get M30 and H1 AO below zero before a new high.

the typical retrace would be 50 to 61.8%

 
kitsap1

Essentially all trades are either buying or selling the USD. As we look at Dixe, we see a cycle of about 22 days, where we just finished a down cycle and IF that holds, we will see a much deeper retrace on the EURUSD than previously thought.

Another factor is Japan has shut down all its nuclear plants and power generation is entirely fossil fuel. This is driving the greater spending of the JPY, and especially since OIL is priced in USD. As more JPY and EURO go into fossil fuels, there is propensity for reduced value. Things could get interesting here.

The EMA Channel has moved down from the 3500 range to the 3415. A lot of big money players have parked sell orders aroud 1.3320 for EURUSD and the 1.5850 on GBPUSD.

The Hour bar has a big AO peak on he low side that would warrant taking out the 1.2970 level and there is currently nothing in positive divergence to take the EURUSD higher. From What I can see, with respect to the Awesome Oscillator, we should be about done at the 1.3300 until price goes lower and gets a positive divergence. For now, divergence is negative and forces are down.

 
kitsap1

As I review the trading context of the H4 and H1 I see bearish and thus I examine the bearish ABCD patterns. Foremost is the 1.3290 to 1.3200 to 1.3270 that give a target near the H1 bar EMA channel.

My trading plan is to look for reversal in the 1.3255 area and target the 1.3183.

We are in an interesting situation and I believe BayFisherman's work to be creditable (even if I saw different results, I would say this.) A move to 1.33 followed by a quick reversal to the 1.3350 would set this market up for a move to about 1.2940

A persistent sideways move would set the market in place to run to the 1.35. With the market in a range between 1.30 and 1.33 i am not able to leave any chips on the table.

 
kitsap1

M5 has a new price high and a new Awesome Oscillator peak. This it is reasonable to look for a pull back to the 144/169 EMA channel around 1.3275 before a turn to a higher high. Nothing in the market moves in a straight line.

Currently the Daily EMA channel is at 1.3440 region and 1.3550 shows option barriers according to reports on ForexLive.com

 
kitsap1

Looking at the MACD (8,17,9) on hourly, daily and weekly, all MACD are above the trigger.
There is no reason to take short trades. (As noted several places throughout this forum, trade with respect to the context of the higher time frame.)

On the daily bar we see a 1.2626 low, a 1.3335 high and a 1.2975 low. the 61.8% target is at 1.3406 and the 100% target is 1.3672

The monthly pivot R1 typically holds price action and stands at 1.3340. It is likely for price to return within that range.

A good likely target for trading is at 1.3406 and a good area for pullback is the 1.3317 and possible to enter long.

Trouble is at 1.3382 - working off the 1.3232 low to 1.3344 high and retrace to 1.3270 gives the 61% at 1.3339 and 1.3382 as 100% We are there and the market is flat.

As the joke - or truth goes What comes after flat . . . well one large hourly candle from 1.3339 to 1.3375 is the answer. And could take the market to 1.3406 mentioned above.

if the market reverses and come back below the 1.3280 it is a strong signal that a reversal has began.
For now, the marktet is bullish on significant time frames and we are best to trade long.

 
kitsap1

in regards to the beautiful move on the EURUSD we had last night, I introduce a poem I learned as a third class Petty Officer from one of the M division fireman while he was doing some cleaning in the aft bilges:

As a rule, man is a fool
When its hot, he wants it cool
When its cool, he wants it hot
Always wanting what is not.

Amazed that after all this time, I remember it - mostly because it speaks to what many of us go through whilst moving between the real (where we are) and the ideal (where we want to be) -- that is the ordeal.

 
Prodigalpops

Here's some meditative prose...

How is it so,
That I who am so wise
and knowing...
Gifted in the ways of language
and perception...
So understanding...
Alert to every nuance and suggestion,
And deeply read as well,
Should screw up with such regularity?

 
kitsap1

Oh; Found in that is the ironic truth faced by countless millions throughout our human history. It even looks like the mirror I peer into at times. Thank you!

 
edwinvangoor

Does anybody have an opinion about the drop in EURUSD yasterday 28/2/12 between 2 pm and 3:30 pm GMT? At 2:30 pm durable goods orders were reported for USD. They were worse than expected, so I would expect the EURUSD to rise. Where do I go wrong? Thanx, Edwin

 
kitsap1

Edwin observed the NEW and IMPROVED reading on the US consumer confidence coming out better than expected (70 versus the 63 expected and last reading at 61). Most of these new events will wash out of the market in about an hours time, as we saw this one do as well. The ones that tend to last are those changing liquidity such as interest rate changes or labor market in the worlds biggest economies. Sorry about getting back so late on this. By now you looked at the ForexFactory.com calendar and saw what happened at that time.

The EURUSD has very solid support at the 1.3443 level and above the market very strong areas of resistance. This leaves a very choppy market condition. and a bullish market context very close to resistance. Not ideal for trading.

The move that Edwin is evaluating left an ABCD (1.3361 A to 1.3461 B, and 1.3392 C, pattern showing the 100% expansion at 1.3487 D) and the D has held thus far.

 
kitsap1

Edwin observed the NEW and IMPROVED reading on the US consumer confidence coming out better than expected (70 versus the 63 expected and last reading at 61). Most of these new events will wash out of the market in about an hours time, as we saw this one do as well. The ones that tend to last are those changing liquidity such as interest rate changes or labor market in the worlds biggest economies. Sorry about getting back so late on this. By now you looked at the ForexFactory.com calendar and saw what happened at that time.

The EURUSD has very solid support at the 1.3443 level and above the market very strong areas of resistance. This leaves a very choppy market condition. and a bullish market context very close to resistance. Not ideal for trading.

The move that Edwin is evaluating left an ABCD (1.3361 A to 1.3461 B, and 1.3392 C, pattern showing the 100% expansion at 1.3487 D) and the D has held thus far.

 
kitsap1

attached is a document found somewhere on the web that depicts methods for trading the Commodity Channel Index

AttachmentSize
CCIstrategies.pdf 76.52 KB
 
cooper

thanks John

 
edwinvangoor

Thanx. Support broken!? Would have made a nice trade, but didn't see it coming...

 
Matthew Smith

Looking at the Euro this week. We made a double touch of 1.3486 and sold off sharply this week. Looking at the H4 bar the target was for the AO to return to 0 and the CCI to come down from highly overbought. We blew threw the retracement levels of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% and tested our previous pivot low @ 1.3186. A break lower here would suggest a test of the 61.8% @ 1.3169 and the 78.6% @1.3083. However this has been a very sharp move down with very little retracement. The CCI is now showing oversold and we have a major proform pivot showing @ 1.3186. This would suggest a possible retracement to at least the 23.6% area around 1.3257. The fundamentals scream USD strength but nothing moves in a straight line. Good luck and happy trading!

euro.gif
 
donk

putting a fib retrace on the last high to fridays low, shows a target of 1.33300 area in the 4 hr TF. before resuming a bearish trend. possibly as far as 1.30200.(100%) as Matt notes the CCI is overbought and now climbing up to the -100 mark. the A.O. also bullish. the kicker would be Portugal news. Contrarian opinion anyone?

 
kitsap1

The obvious is a bullish divergence on the M15 while the H1 bar AO has not yet returned to the waterline. It does seem the H1 bar is controlling and likely to draw the M15 price action to the tunnel at 1.3270 and dropping back to the 1.3170 level for a proper divergence on the H1 bar.

Friday's candle as many "friday candles" are flukes but they do weight on the technicals and fit withing the wave pattern.

Matthew Smith notes we did get the double top and what J Murphy refers to as Class B divergence. I would also add, that it was a truncated 5th wave and not surprised to see an extended wave in the first wave down.

I agree with Matthew Smith and Donk. The flat segment on the m15 keeps the door open to more immediate down. The divergence on m15 with the H1 bar not having yet came back up to zero forebodes a move to the m15 EMA Channel (tunnel) 1.3270. When we have proper divergence on the lower time frames the market is likely to give the retrace Donk refers unabated. I will be watching BayFisherman's Median Line study for that Median as that is likely where the big retrace up will start.

Roger Babson made over 12 million dollars using action-reaction line studies. Alan Hall Andrews extended that method with Median line methods that our fellow trader BayFisherman demonstrates -- THE SAME STUFF that Andrews implemented to build the Hienz and the Kennedy Familys' wealth. That method enjoys an accuracy of over 80% and is being reintroduced to pit traders according to Dr Mircea Dologa.

When we bounce off the median line, is when I will anticipate the kind of retrace as Donk notes is likely. Until then, I am inclined to sell rallies.

 
donk

tuesday 4:30, on the H4, daily charts, there seems to be a line of support near the 1.30200. on the H1 and 30 min shows an Elliot 5th wave closing with a major pivot. retrace up to 1.31620 (38%)
based on the retracement patterns of waves 2 and 4.

kitsap1, Author of the reference book about the Median line studies, please

 
donk

the trouble about learning is it increases the thirst for more knowledge

 
kitsap1

Dr Mircea Dologa has Integrated Pitchfork Analysis (2008) ISBN 978-0[470-69434-3

Tim Morge has put all the stuff he learned from his years of working with Dr Andrews availble for free on line. WWW.medianline.com

 
donk

John, thank you for posting the names and titles, also sites for information about using the indicators.

was watching your session last nite on the adx and atr, Was it a coincidence when you were drawing
a possible direction of Elliot waves, that every time you drew a line up, the market also went up, or drew a line down and the market followed?

 
Prodigalpops

Coincidence? No.
Where John leads the market follows :-)

 
Prodigalpops

Yawn... I've seen more exciting paint dry than this lacklustre movement on the EURUSD over the last 2 hours or so (09:30 - 12:00 GMT, March 22nd).
:-)

 
kitsap1

B waves are . . .

 
cooper

....bad?

 
Matthew Smith

Looking at the Eur/Usd, and its ferocious move to the downside, it looks like it may not be over yet. The Williams% (8red, 21blue, 55green) show us we saw a small correction when the 8red moved higher, only to snap back and return to the bottom with the others. We could see more downside to fully allow compression to happen before correcting further. The Oscar is also pointed south. It also showed the recent correction, moving higher from very oversold territory, however, it has turned back lower and suggests more downside is in the cards. The Fibonacci's on the higher charts show a low @ 1.2624 and a recent high @ 1.3486. A Fibo Retracement on these levels shows the 78.6% @ 1.2808 (which we just blew past). Next possible level would be 88.2% @ 1.2726 and a return to the lows. The indicators are all showing we are in oversold territory but I would wait for confirmation of a change in direction. Recently, the H1 Raghee Wave has provided good resistance. It now stands @ 1.2857 (high).

2012-05-15_09-52.jpg
 
Matthew Smith

Update (5/16/12 @11:15am EST)

As expected, the Euro continued its spiral downwards, reaching a low of 1.2681. Our support at 88.2% of (1.2624-1.3486) held briefly, but the sellers were determined to see it lower. We are now down 600+ pips in less than 3 weeks trading time (13 daily bars). Going back to the H4 chart, it looks as if the move down may be slowing for now. A break of the 78.6% Fibo (in this case 1.2808) usually suggests a return 100% (1.2624). We also know that the market does not move in a straight line. The H4 chart shows we are stuck in a downwards channel. The RSI's (8,21,55) are all still showing extreme values. The Oscar is still below our important level of 20, showing extreme but is finally pointing higher. This could suggest some correction coming if Oscar can move above 20 and hold. The H1 Raghee Wave (34 EMA High, Low, Close) still providing resistance at the top, now @ 1.2769. The top of our H4 trend line channel is @ 1.2815 and should provide resistance. Also, the 23.6% of the move down down (1.3283-1.2682) sits @ 1.2823 close by. If the red RSI (8) moves higher by itself, only to turn around, watch out below for more downside.

Euro Update.jpg
 
Matthew Smith

Update (5/16/12 @ 3:45 EST)

The Euro is now in consolidation mode after a steady dose of dumping recently. Against the USD it rose almost 80 pips to 1.2759 from the lows @ 1.2681 but now sits around 1.2710. The H1 chart seems to be showing us the way and I have attached it. The Oscar is suggesting we have come high enough and has continued on its move south. The H1 Raghee Wave still showing us the way, after the most recent rally was capped by the 34EMA (close). A new low (lower than 1.2681) could allow us obtain divergence on the M5, M15 and M30. Good luck!

Euro Update.jpg
 
Matthew Smith

Update (5/17/12 @ 10:00 EST)

The downtrend has continued in the Eur/Usd as we reached new lows @ 1.2666. The 100% Fibo target of 1.2624 is still in play and is asking to get taken out. On the H4, a small consolidation, in which the Williams%8 (red) broke sharply higher was once again capped by the H1 Raghee Wave. The Williams%8 proceeded to snap back signalling a continuation of the downtrend and taking us to the fore mentioned lows @ 1.2666. Oscar is showing us indecision at the moment, having come out of the low extreme zone but still well below 50. Downside target would be the previous low (also 100% Fibo) @ 1.2624, which also is where the bottom of our trend line channel sits. A correction higher would first face resistance around 1.2738 (top of the H1 Raghee Wave) and then 1.2800 (top of the trend line channel) Good luck out there!

Euro Update.jpg
 
Matthew Smith

Update (5/17/12 @ 4:00 EST)

More of the same for the Eur/Usd today. Attached is the H1 chart which has been leading the way for a few days now. The Raghee Wave has held the rallies in check again, coming within 1 pip of touch the top of the wave @ 1.2738. We moved back and forth for the balance of the session with mostly indecision. We sit now around 1.2700 with Oscar pointing to the downside. We were able to obtain proper low divergence on M15 and M30 with the AO recently returning to zero. A return to zero on H1 will also create proper divergence. John has taught us that usually when a time frame returns to zero, the time frame smaller is returning to the Vegas tunnel when creating proper divergence. So, if H1 is returning to zero and creating divergence, look for M30 to be around the (144,169 EMA) channel. Downside target of 1.2624 still remains in play while resistence now lies @ 1.2734 (Raghee Wave) and @ 1.2788 (top of trend line channel).

Euro Update.jpg
 
Matthew Smith

Update (5/18/12 @ 2:00 EST)

Oscar suggested a move lower and we received just that. A new low @ 1.2642. This came up short of our 100% target @ 1.2624 but the ensuing rally was very direct. We rallied almost 100 pips from the lows to 1.2739. Finally, we saw a break of the H1 Raghee Wave which is now sitting around 1.2715. In creating proper divergence, we know (thanks to John) that when the H1 AO returns to zero, we should expect M30 to be around the Vegas Tunnel (144, 169 EMA). This is exactly what we saw as the top of the M30 Vegas tunnel acted as resistance. The H1 chart has returned to zero creating proper divergence but the jury is still out as to a full blown correction higher. As we know, time frames resolve divergence (usually) from small to big. The H1 now has low divergence and we expect to return to the Vegas tunnel, which now sits around 1.2790. The same time this happens, the H4 AO should be returning to zero, also creating proper H4 divergence. However, as we know, the market does not move in a straight line. We can see the H4 AO is moving upwards but needs some time resolve itself. Pending news releases this week from Europe, the H1 Oscar suggests the upside has had its run for now. H4 suggests a dangerous continuation to the downside, as the Williams8 has once again run away from the 21 and 55. My short term bias would be to the downside with our previous target of 1.2624 still in play. Medium term suggests H4 returning to the Vegas tunnel (but remember, if price stays below, the EMA's will move down as well). Good luck out there! (And GO CHELSEA!!)

Euro Update M30.jpg Euro Update H1.jpg Euro Update H4.jpg
 
DJK

Was anyone who was trading EUR/USD in a practice account today expreiencing a sluggish or sticky MT4 around 2:00 p.m. I found it very difficult placing trades or closing trades

 
russ

I don't see Oscar in my indicators. Does anyone know how I can load it. I'm currently using stochastics, but Oscar looks more responsive.

 
kitsap1

Russ,
Prodigalpops has created a nice link for us to share MT4 related utilities. Here is the link, under which you will find oscar.

http://my.apiaryfund.com/forum/metatrader4-expert-advisors-indicators-an...

 
BobB48

I am a neww bee so let me add an observation and ask for comments.
I have been watching the EURUSD for the past two weeks (when I started).
I notice that the monthly chart could be forming an inverse head and shoulders beginning in May 2008.
First shoulder in Oct 2008; head in June 2010; and second shoulder May 2012.
If this is a clasic head and shoulder, the Euro could be in for a long climb, maybe even to the 1.585 level ove the next year to 18 months.
This is a little too long a time for me to open a position; however, there will be many moves in the interim.
As an example, the 4 hour chart has broken out of a long downtrending channel from May 1, 2012 to June 1 2012. A fib retracement shows that it is about the 23 % level and should have some room to go. Maybe a 50% as a good target?
Any thoughts?

 
kitsap1

I would have to agree . . . Compare the dynamics of the Awesome Oscillator or a MACD of a successful head and shoulder pattern to what we see now... The left shoulder is nearly in place and about to start toward the left neckline.

In the standard H&S pattern is created by the 3,4 & 5 of a C wave and the 1&2 or the 3,4,5 and an A and B waves.

Fig 15 on page 13 of the Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook will help explain this. The Hour Bar may soon prove to be ready example.

 
CRUZ CONTROL

So. All I'm saying is that if the US Dollar index goes up the dollar is stronger, meaning its cheaper to buy Euros. So the EUR/USD pair goes DOWN.

 
CRUZ CONTROL

So. All I'm saying is that if the US Dollar index goes up the dollar is stronger, meaning its cheaper to buy Euros. So the EUR/USD pair goes DOWN.

 
mabonclark

EurUsd going up. Strong trend up. I am at 123 pips

 
mabonclark

EurUsd going up. Strong trend up. I am at 123 pips

720 12 8 000 in the green wait 30 1h 3h.JPG
 
mabonclark

EurUsd going up. Strong trend up. I am at 123 pips

3 hr confirm at 12 8 3 or 7pm.JPG
 
mabonclark

This is the 1 hour chart. I use the 30m for confirmation. Still in the Swing Trade since last nites entry.

 
mabonclark

Sorry trying to get used to your forum settup.

1 hour pips canon got confirm 30min.JPG pipscanon confirm entry.JPG
 
dhopp011

looks good!

 
Silence

I trade pure price action, those indicators make me headache

 
Fsoong.charles

I trade mainly on price cycle and HMA's

 
aik

A couple of years ago when I first started trading, a guru taught me to trade EUR/USD with 10 second chart. Only go long when you see higher high and higher low. Only go short when you see lower high and lower low. Enter upon pull back with buy stop or sell stop 1 or 2 pips away. Set stop loss at 3-6 pips and profit target at 5-12 pips. This strategy works best for London session.

 
Toti

@ alk,
Interesting, how can I get a 10 second chart?

 
aik

I use OANDA fx trade platform. You can also use TradeStation or Ninja Trader.

 
kbeach01

I've never heard of a 10 second chart. Is that actually a tick chart? On Think or Swim you can switch from a time chart to a tick chart and set the bars to change with however many ticks you want.

 
Sokha

Here is the chart from OANDA fx trade platform.

10 sec.jpg
 
kbeach01

Thanks. Anything below 15 minutes is a challenge to me much less 10 seconds.

 
Toti

Thank's Aik and Sokha !!!

 
Sokha

You are welcome, Toti.

Here are Tradestation's tick and share charts. Those are good for Futures day trade. I would not recommend trading Forex less than 15 min or 5 min charts. The spread eats your profit alive. Lol.

Tradestation.jpg
 
don_johnson

The Spread on AUD/USD last week was about 2.2 pips ! It's painful to watch the Price Action hit and roll past my entry for what seems like forever before opening my trade . Still very new at this , but that is an issue I am starting to weigh more heavily in my decision of currency to trade. Is there a good rule to follow in regards to larger spread vs potential profit ?

 
hakchinoy

Although I've never traded off a 10 seconds charts, I have traded (and periodically will trade) off tick charts using a similar approach. Keep in mind that scalps off M1 charts look like swing trades off tick charts and 10 second charts. :)

 
Roguediabetic

Is the EUR/USD going up or down after consumer confidence comes out?

 
nick.spicer

What does your system tell you? :)

 
luc

I'd say that the patterns on say a 70-tick chart are generally more tradable than a 10 or 30 second chart.

I know EURUSD is going up right now (target at 1.14453), but there are some very enticing longer term targets below. And we're near resistance I think. So, even though up seems to be the 'correct' direction, I suspect it will not get far above 1.145 before testing 1.10 and even 1.05

Could be a sharp move above 1.135 towards 1.145 followed by sharp reversal.... be careful.

 
JBee

I like this.
Thanks for the info.
hmmm....5% a day...eh?

Good luck Bees,
JBee

 
LOU DEAN

ready for a reversal

reversal.png
 
Roguediabetic

If the ecb just put in a bunch of stimulus and the fed will be raising interest rates soon shouldn't the EUR/USD be going in the other direction?

 
luc

@Roguediabetic - Fundamentals vs Technicals. I do not know if this view is true or not, but it seems useful to me as a trader. In my opinion, specifically for a TRADER, and especially a short-term trader, fundamentals logic will lead to persistent losses in trading. I love understanding the fundamentals and long term I seem to be good at it, but it really, really mucks-up my trading. It makes me too in-love with the position I've taken ( 'because it just has to do the right thing!'). It leads to losses... Not because the market does 'crazy' things (it doesn't), not because one has mis-understood the fundamentals, but because the technicals matter too; they matter because they involve risk management and participation from both very smart successful bulls and very smart successful bears. Fundamentals affect many time-frames at the same time, but in different ways. And remember, when you get to hear the fundamentals is some time after those smart, dominant players have already acted on it.
I believe there is at least a tinge of regret on the part of the Fed for raising rates when they did. So I expect them to talk the dollar down for a while. The ECB reduced the yield on EUR, yet it went up. Same for Yen. Basically the market is buying where it finds free money or expects inflation; but it could have done the opposite; and eventually, it probably will do the opposite ( as you expected ). But by then, it will have battered short-term fundamentals-based traders. So, as a trader it seems to me that it is best to completely ignore the fundamentals ( except to perhaps be flat when there is a major announcement expected ). Just look at the chart and try to workout who is making money... the bulls or the bears.

 
Sokha

I trade mechanically using S/D rule based core strategy. For short term income trade, fundamental does have an impact on Forex trading; however, for long term swing trade, I don't pay attention to news.

 
Al

I agree with Sokha. Fundamentals are good to be scalped. Straddle the market 2 or 3 minutes before the news comes out and you can make fast pips.
Fundamentals exist only to fulfill the technicals to fulfill a pullback or to keep the trend.
When we have news that suppose to move the market in oposit direction of the technicals then a whiplash happen, a fast move in the direction of the news and a slow consistent move in the oposit direction (the technical direction of the market).
Just my thoughts.

 
hakchinoy

Although news events are partly driven by fundamentals, it's the exception to the rule for short-term trading--especially off lower TFs (like M5 and M1). Please keep in mind that NFP last month was driven more by sentiment than fundamentals. The results were USD friendly, but the market pushed the E/U up instead of down.

In most cases, technicals and/or sentiment tend to drive short-term trades; whereas, fundamentals tend to drive long-term trades.

 
LOU DEAN

I believe that news is like an indicator and not always 100% so I trade the chart.

 
LOU DEAN

I believe that news is like an indicator and not always 100% so I trade the chart.

 
LOU DEAN

so I was definatley wrong about the reversal... lol

 
europamjm

EUR/USD.... A great pair to get hooked on!

I am getting increasingly more interested trading in EUR/USD pair. These two are the largest economies, lots of Liquidity, and mostly behave rationally - most of the times. The spreads are reasonable even in the volatile markets.

I am going to focus more on this pair moving forward.

 
Jordan

Watch out. It is taking a historical drop today.

 
NGAS

Luc - do you still see this going to 1.05? Amazing volatility at the moment.

 
nathanlanders

looks like it's still going down on the weekly chart.

 
nollie.klue

Can the EUR brake the 1.100 barrier in the next few days

 
anthonyciovacco

i love trading eur/usd

 
donruadh@gmail.com

Fundamental v technical - As a relatively newbee I find that I am unduly influenced by many information sources that have different levels of reliability. At the end of the day the decisions made on taking trades are up to the trader. As a new trader I am learning the technicals but before taking trades I also consider the news. I suppose a balance between the two is important depending on what the objectives are - short term v long term etc. There are many forces at play in the market and as an individual trader I feel that I need to out guess the major players while consistently managing the risk so that when I get it right I win big and when I get it wrong I lose small.

 
melanie8

not bad gap up today, Sunday trading. Euro seems to be balancing (ranging or consolidating) between 1.1160ish and 1.1000. I would like to sell it at 1.1130ish but may get an opportunity earlier give the big red bar on Friday. Good luck to all.

 
Bryan

One of the best aspects of trading the EUR, especially for scalping, is the low spread. Over the course of 100s of trades, this can make a big difference in profit.

 
briano

I used to exclusively trade the EUR/USD. Doing that caused too many losses on some days so now I trade whatever pair is trending. I have liked USD/JPY lately. It has a relatively low spread and has been trending better.

 
bigbubba32

I trade EURUSD almost exclusively, except during news, I do enjoy trading the news I guess it's the rush. I'm primarily a scalper, EURUSD during news seems to have more whipsaw then other pairs. I trade the USDPY during most USD news. Hope you all are doing well, enjoy.

 
alan_6

EUR/USD is my default currency pair to trade. If I can't find any good trades here then I will look at other pairs.

 
alan_6

EUR/USD trade results for today 8/2/2016. PIPS: +27 (View Attachment)

Trading Strategy is to ride the waves looking for good entry and exits.
Indicators: Bollinger Bands (20), Apiary Pivots, Candle Reversal bars

EURUSD.jpeg
 
alan_6

EUR/USD trade results for today 8/3/2016. PIPS: +25 (View Attachment)

Trading Strategy is to ride the waves looking for good entry and exits.
Indicators: Bollinger Bands (20), Apiary Pivots, Candle Reversal bars

EURUSD08032016.jpeg
 
kveratis

Interesting alan_6, what do you mean by riding the waves exactly? Looking at the images it looks like you are scalping.

 
kai

Alan_6 , I as a newbie, not sure even which strategy to follow, so at this stage I am trying to implement the Fast Track recommended strategy. But for the last 4 days, i only got one setup on 15Min chart. What strategy is that?

 
alan_6

Kveratis: By riding the waves I mean that I watch the wave structure and look to catch the beginning of a rally on the 5m chart, I then ride the rally and when it starts to stall out I get out. Average time in a trade is about 25 minute so I guess you could call it scalping.

 
nisihann

I agree with Craig that trading the EUR/USD at the London open or an hour before the open is best vs the US open. I am going to try the buy and sell stops this morning for the NFP and hope to hit the needed 50 pip profit for Silver II

 
dollarbillt

EUR/USD is my favorite pair to trade as well...tight spreads and volatile swings

 
alan_6

kai: Strategy: Read the wave structure and the individual candles to determine entry and exit. The attached graphic will give you an example. However, keep in mind that every setup will be somewhat different depending upon where the waves are within each longer term trend. Hope this answers your question. Need more information, just ask!

Trade Example 1.gif
 
alan_6

+10 PIPS so far this morning. Market very volatile!!!

53 2016-08-04
11:45:04 2016-08-04
11:45:07 2016-08-04
12:04:26 19m 19s Market buy
1.112063
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 8.77 8.37 Market
(Alveo) 1.108397
52 2016-08-04
11:25:07 2016-08-04
11:25:07 2016-08-04
12:04:26 39m 19s Market buy
1.112623
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 3.17 2.77 Market
(Alveo) 1.108371
51 2016-08-04
11:15:39 2016-08-04
11:15:41 2016-08-04
12:04:26 48m 45s Market buy
1.11311
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 -1.7 -2.1 Market
(Alveo) 1.108371
50 2016-08-03
19:45:23 2016-08-03
19:45:22 2016-08-03
19:58:09 12m 47s Market buy
1.114853
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 -0.13 -0.53 Market
(Alveo) 1.113843

 
rajib.ghatak

Does anyone have any suggestions as to the best time to trade the Eur/usd? I find the pair to be very choppy pretty much all the time and can barely make 4-5 pips max at a time...trying to formulate a strategy to implement long term trades on the pair. Any suggestions?

Rajib

 
darren196696

yep trade it when its trending up or down thats the best time to trade it

 
alan_6

darren: Right on!!!

+17 PIPS so far this morning...

 
alan_6

rajib: What's wrong with 4-5 pips at a time? What's your time frame?

 
alan_6

+27.9 PIPS for the day. I'm done trading for today!

65 2016-08-04
16:10:19 2016-08-04
16:10:19 2016-08-04
16:21:34 11m 15s Market sell
1.1137
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 4.67 4.27 Market
(Alveo) 1.11574
64 2016-08-04
16:04:58 2016-08-04
16:04:57 2016-08-04
16:21:34 16m 37s Market sell
1.11371
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 4.77 4.37 Market
(Alveo) 1.11572
63 2016-08-04
15:48:56 2016-08-04
15:48:56 2016-08-04
16:21:34 32m 38s Market sell
1.1133
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 0.67 0.27 Market
(Alveo) 1.11531
62 2016-08-04
15:44:50 2016-08-04
15:44:50 2016-08-04
16:21:34 36m 44s Market sell
1.11298
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 -2.53 -2.93 Market
(Alveo) 1.11508
61 2016-08-04
15:31:37 2016-08-04
15:31:37 2016-08-04
15:40:12 8m 35s Market sell
1.11359
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 0 -0.4 Market
(Alveo) 1.11559
60 2016-08-04
15:19:18 2016-08-04
15:19:18 2016-08-04
15:40:12 20m 54s Market sell
1.11394
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 3.5 3.1 Market
(Alveo) 1.11597
59 2016-08-04
14:02:10 2016-08-04
14:02:11 2016-08-04
14:12:52 10m 41s Market buy
1.11406
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 3.8 3.4 Market
(Alveo) 1.11191
58 2016-08-04
14:01:11 2016-08-04
14:01:11 2016-08-04
14:12:52 11m 41s Market buy
1.11409
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 3.5 3.1 Market
(Alveo) 1.11213
57 2016-08-04
14:00:01 2016-08-04
14:00:02 2016-08-04
14:12:52 12m 50s Market buy
1.11445
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 Market
(Alveo) 1.11232
56 2016-08-04
13:55:19 2016-08-04
13:55:21 2016-08-04
14:12:52 17m 31s Market buy
1.11472
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 -2.8 -3.2 Market
(Alveo) 1.11268
55 2016-08-04
13:10:09 2016-08-04
13:10:10 2016-08-04
13:41:56 31m 46s Market buy
1.11394
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 3.4 3 Market
(Alveo) 1.111448
54 2016-08-04
12:59:37 2016-08-04
12:59:38 2016-08-04
13:41:56 42m 18s Market buy
1.1144
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 -1.2 -1.6 Market
(Alveo) 1.111421
53 2016-08-04
11:45:04 2016-08-04
11:45:07 2016-08-04
12:04:26 19m 19s Market buy
1.112063
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 8.77 8.37 Market
(Alveo) 1.108397
52 2016-08-04
11:25:07 2016-08-04
11:25:07 2016-08-04
12:04:26 39m 19s Market buy
1.112623
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 3.17 2.77 Market
(Alveo) 1.108371
51 2016-08-04
11:15:39 2016-08-04
11:15:41 2016-08-04
12:04:26 48m 45s Market buy
1.11311
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 -1.7 -2.1 Market
(Alveo) 1.108371
50 2016-08-03
19:45:23 2016-08-03
19:45:22 2016-08-03
19:58:09 12m 47s Market buy
1.114853
(Alveo) EUR/USD 0.1 -0.13 -0.53 Market
(Alveo) 1.113843

 
ava7f

Looks good Alan_6

 
Leonard Siahaan

Hi everyone, me, dpgeneralconstruction and others who were waiting for SIgnal's webinar by Nate talked about eur/usd. We decide to continue discuss about eur/usd in this posting

 
PipsLikeGoldBricks

dpgeneralconstruction: i see a bear flag forming on the eur/usd. on weekly and monthly. i am courious if it is going to follow through to new lows. Im bearish.It is in the consolidation period. it may signal a huge selloff. This is of course after Britex. Good idea to buy and sell in the channel that it is creating.

 
Leonard Siahaan

@dpg I saw the eur/usd trendline in W still in tact, seems the channel could be seen as a flag pattern as well right ?

 
itispossible1

EURUSD is my preferred pair. It gives the best price action and recognizable trends as opposed to other pairs.

 
Fmanager007

You can download this spread sheet, I created for Muti BreakOut Trading on the EUR/USD.

I jPEG PICTURE are the instructions on how to use.

Spread Sheet Instructions.jpg
AttachmentSize
Forex Stradle Trade.ods 13.44 KB
 
Elijah

long here 1.1150 should hold :)

 
Fclaudekinney

It could very easily cycle down to the 50% line within the current range. I have the 50% line at around 1.10917

 
alan_6

Short term trend is UP with major resistance at 1.1225. Intermediate term trend is DOWN with Intermediate term support at 1.0600. Long term trend is DOWN.

 
donnydd3

The Euro made a new low close since the Brexit low of 1.0913 and then proceeded to trade well below that level today. We must pay attention to last year's close of 1.0865 especially on a closing basis. Should this occur we could be looking at 1.0620 or so . Late in the year after being higher on year for 10 months this gets my attention. The dollar made gains across the board with only the Yen spared of the majors. The Canadian had taken one on the chin and is still reeling after central bank governor Poloz warnings and then a miss lower on CPI has sent the loonie over 1.3308 the former high made a week ago or so and now at 7 month dollar highs. A close over 1.3308 will spell more trouble for the CAD. Today for the time being it has held under 1.3350. I still feel we will eventually test 1.37- 1.38 . GBP is back below 1.22 but I think the Euro has some catching up to do on that cross on the downside that is

 
perry-n-celia

great insight donnydd3

 
Costa

Looks like the ECB put the floor under EUR around 1.0880, US interest rates going higher does not make EUR going lower so technically trading long off this support has being working so far

 
Amanda Mundy

Very interesting. I am sure our election next week will put the market into tail spin.

 
87Hawk

This is great trading during the election. Pairs moving on every state being called.

 
Elijah

LT EUR/USD down.

 
donnydd3

Good morning . The dollar is flying high this morning and taking no prisoners. The Euro is testing the all important 1.0860 area and it’s not just the Mexican Peso this time although the Peso is getting hit hard this morning and this will most likely continue. The Yen truly surprised me overnight as it approaches 107 and the highest dollar level since July. Yesterday US bond yields had a big move higher closing above 2.05% in the 10 yr and overnight as I look around globally yields are higher across the board especially in Australia and New Zealand in Asia. The Aussie once again failed on the 77 handle last night . It has been rejected up here many times now although it managed a new interim high at .7742 but is sharply reversing and is approaching yesterday’s close now.

 
anubhav.sx

I find trading eurusd is good during London open! There generally seems to be a breakout in that time usually give anywhere from 10 to 15 pips on average!

 
DULLRICH7

EURU/USD--2 largest currencies--low/bid ask==constant liquidity and volatility

 
DULLRICH7

raja--best time to trade any pair is when highest volatility--i find great opportunities in first 2 hrs 0f,asian,london and u.s.

 
JerryP

I don't get married to any-one pair, my setup is relatively simple to spot and I can usually go through all the pairs available to us in under 5 minutes looking for my setup, when I find it I go with it. I can usually find 3 or 4 pairs with my setup. I never trade more than 3 pairs at once, so I'll pick the best three and go with those, I never second guess myself....I really get into managing a trade. I trade the 5min. charts.

 
Fcruising4pips

Personally I prefer EUR/JPY to the EUR/USD because I do most of my trading in the Asian sessions.

 
oboryach

I found that EUR/USD is actively trading starting at 10 pm of US Eastern time and then at 3 AM EST and change the direction. The best time to trade the pair is at 8:00

 
Pip_Whisperer

Hi oboryach,

For your consideration...

https://youtu.be/xJMbva8SjzE

Cheers!

-see the big picture-

 
fayther

Powerful move up on the EUR/USD (1 hr) chart today. Looks as if this may continue.

 
Erndog

all times high, there have been some great moves. Had good success with the bankers close.

 
Mike Smith

There seems to be a lot of bias for buy on eurusd at this time. I will target 1.14 after rise and supports on 200 hma on M15. They are talking about rises up to 1.25 and disregarding trump's bias.

 
Mike Smith

Current news outlook seems to maintain dip at 1.127 then shoot up to 1.14.

 
Mike Smith

I target 1.14 with expectation for EUR undervalued, unless drops under 1.12, then I will bias recheck. The overall sentiment is eurusd is undervalued and USD is facing weakness from various angles. The larger buy trend will take months to evolve. Many analysts think we're at a bottom right now.

 
Mike Smith

Some ify's about eurusd sitting around 100 ma at current position. Talk about support and upside next week, but waiting for next week Fed meeting. Heightening short-term headlines for bearish activity, personally I think the Fed news will be negative.

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Mike Smith

Just got news says 1.125 could be an easy piece to take out right now...

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Mike Smith

OK we saw the last headline did happen. But analysts are still saying that it's just trying to find a bottom. They said it was a flash of better than expected US data. But this has just roused the euro bulls and they're talking about pushing up, in addition as the Fed meeting is approaching the analysts are revealing the data is expected to be weak.

I would expect the run down we saw on wednesday and thursday was stimulated a little by the US retail sales report, but this is more like a trap short and the Fed meeting might be the longs analysts are looking for. Overall, everyone is not optimistic about next week Fed meeting.

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Lukenbella

I prefer to trade the Gbpusd because it moves faster.