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Trading with the US Dollar Index

 

Trading with the US Dollar Index

Since knowing which way the market is moving is so critical to FOREX trading, is anyone using the US Dollar Index to set up or manage their trades involving the USD pairs?  If so, how do you do it?  Are their any video training sessions that describe this?

John L.

Fri, 03/02/2018 - 12:01am
 
1lynnsc

I use a currency strength indicator to find pairs. If the USD is relatively strong or weak it helps me find long or short trades relative to other currencies. Here's the free indicator: http://completecurrencytrader.com/currency-strength-indicator.html#book_...
I check the hourly timeframe and set the look back to 60.
Hope this helps,
Lynn

 
triguylm1

Interesting you would ask that. I find the US Dollar Index (DX) is exactly the leading indicator to price action involving USD. Notice the reversal pivot low on the DX on Feb. 16th, 2018. Did you catch that "vib"?

Here is an example of how I use that to trade the EUR/USD, which by the way correlates closely to the GBP/USD; First I look at the previous day high and low pivot price, and use those prices to calculate an "Expansion" price move for the next 4 to 24 hours. The entry price is determined by using 2 methods, Set & forget, or real time buy stop or sell stop "trailing price" entry. This way; when price reaches target zone, I will simply set up a sell stop order below the current Pivot high price zone and wait for price to reverse back on trend by following behind the overbought price as it bounces off the top resistance price. Opposite, if overall trend is bullish. This allows me to run a fibonacci Stop Loss setting of about 22 pips; My hard SL setting is usually around 56 pips to avoid whipsaw.

So if price moves 22 to 33 pips above consolidation I will enter a sell order. See example below:

H1 Chart of the EUR/USD showing Monday through Friday setups during the Tokyo session!

Capture EURUSD H1 Chart Pivot System Example.PNG
 
vesskrastev

Yes, actually looking at the dollar index (USDX) should be the first thing you do. TradingView provides a good free chart for USDX. If the index is going up, then all the USD pairs, where USD is the base currency, will go up. With the dollar index going up, the pairs where USD is the quote currency will go down. When the dollar index goes down, everything reverses. When in doubt about the direction the dollar index is taking, look at the price of silver or gold. When the price of silver or gold goes up, then the dollar index goes down (since silver and gold are bought with dollars).
Before major news events the dollar index (and with all the dollar pairs) may freeze and wait until the news broke out.

 
Rookie

Thx, you have no idea how long it took me to discover that on my own...

 
arnt.soloy

They dont always move in perfect sync..but when they do, i trade off supply/demand zones, When dollar comes into a zone at the same time with eur/usd, i see that as a high probability trade..

 
DC Capital Cons...

We've been using currency futures charts to help determine trading pairs for almost 4 years in the honeycomb. I used to use FinViz, but went with Tradingview, since you can chart each index.

If you go to Tradingview.com you can access the charts using the following tickers

DXY = USD index
E61! = EURO index
B61! = GBP index
J61! = JPY index
C61! = CHF index
A61! = AUD index
CB1! = Brent Crude

and so on,

 
Rookie

Thanks DC, great informative post.
I just love forums like this...

 
chris.lee9281

Hey John!

I use the DXY as more of a filter in terms of entering a trade or not. I find set prices which I determine beforehand as my entry points on certain trades.

For example, if I'm looking at GBPUSD long and fundamentals/sentiment are in order, I want to look at the DXY and see if it goes up past a specific level at which point it gives me more conviction to enter the trade. Once I'm in the trade it helps me determine how I'm going to manage the trade. If the said GBPUSD long trade is going well but then there's some drawdown on it, I'm going to look at the DXY and if it goes below a certain price I'll close out my GBPUSD trade since the USD is going down across the board.

 
Rookie

That is a very good way to check for market sentiment and for a single trade, I will try it out.

 
Pip_Whisperer

Since I currently focus on the EU and GU pairs, the USDX is the first thing I look at.

I do my analysis on MT4, so I use a demo account with http://www.forexltd.co.uk, as they offer the index among their instruments to trade.
I look for key levels in the USDX, and correlated key levels in the currency pairs. Confirmation through simultaneous interaction (or nearly so) is one use of the index.

Another use is in finding divergences. If a the index makes a new high or new low, but a currency does not do so, then I am going to be suspicious of a stop run after a return within the range.

It's important to note that the USDX is not so useful in range-bound conditions. Since the Dollar has been range-bound, one should trade other currencies if consolidation is not a desirable market condition. (Or wait for NFP on Friday to inject some volatility!)

-see the big picture-

 
DC Capital Cons...

Hey Rookie.. I just did a class in the Honeycomb this morning on the DXY index and trading view. Was talking with Curtis about putting together a night time class for using trading view as a tool to help identify currency strength and weakness and how to use those indexes to help provide insight to trading opportunities. :)

Pip_Whisperer.. Just so happens, I used the DYX chart to determine a trade this morning, a classic descending triangle, broke consolidation on the 15 min charts.. Was worth only 70 pips, but 1.5 lots on my small account was nice to put 1k profit to bed this morning. :)

So, DXY or any of the indexes can definitely be used on smaller time frames, to provide potential trade opportunities.

Trade wisely,

DC

 
Rookie

DC while the DXY moved 1% the real take was on the base ans quote USD pairs all of them combined made a huge profit if they were traded. As it is I lost 120 pips over four pairs, naturally all the opposite direction.

BTW, whos group is the Honeycomb??

This will be my second week in a group called he Drones by Brian. When I signed up the sales person said all the classes provide the same information just different instructors and this is where I was assigned. I had also asked to see a class video etc. even a basic cairculum if they are all similar but any info was not forthcoming. If I didn't trust Apiary and the team I would not have spent he money just to have my monthly fee reduced. But the extra training certainly can't hurt me and I may be in G2 for a while to come working out of some mistakes.

I would be very interested in and index and commodity correlations oriented class. If anything comes of this new class please let me know.

 
DC Capital Cons...

Curtis is the head of the honeycomb.. It is one of the trading groups.. I have been in the honeycomb since 2013, and though being absent for the past year or so, I still take time to come on in the mornings and provide info on how I trade and chart the markets.

You can request to join any group, I can't imagine they make you stay in an assigned group. A couple of years ago, we had 30 members that would attend on Tuesday am..

The classes aren't all the same, I speak pretty much every week that I am on and attend. :)

Today I detailed the trade I took long on eurusd and the class got to watch me book 1k profit on my personal account. Of course, just as I closed the trade, price retraced. Love when it happens that way.

Speak with Nate, I'm sure they'd give you opportunity to sit in with different groups, or if you'd like I'll text Curtis and see if we can make that happen.

DC

 
Rookie

Kewl Beans, I don't want to make any waves. I have heard that Brian has a remarkable edge and I can use all of that I can get. I was just a bit annoyed at the Apiary attitude about the group information. The gal was nice and all.

 
DC Capital Cons...

Won't make any waves at all.. Or at least it shouldn't.. You're paying for the group, you should expect to obtain value for your money. If you'd like to sit in, for a week or so, let me know..

 
Rookie

What day and time is the Honeycomb group meeting?
We have been around a lot longer than I, other than the instructor do you think there is any substantial difference in eh group programs?
Btw I did chat with Nate and he just had the the sales gal call me...

 
Rookie

Got the info

 
DC Capital Cons...

We meet on Tuesdays at 7 a.m. central time.

 
DC Capital Cons...

I also will do skype sessions for group members if they are wanting to chat about something a little more in depth, or go over things one on one..

and I have also done evening sessions when the room is available..

 
Rookie

interesting, thanks I'll check out a few of the videos

 
DC Capital Cons...

As for the difference in the groups.. I assume we are different. I will challenge people and give them homework. A lot don't do it, but what the heck.. LOL

It's my opportunity to give back to others, and I enjoy teaching.

 
Rookie

good for you so far my first class we had homework I put mine in the chat as I like to share and help where I can but I haven't seen any other responders that doesn't mean they didn't do it but they didn't share it.

 
DC Capital Cons...

for the homework I had for the guys today,

I detailed some different correctional structures and have them going back over charts to locate and identify zig zag corrections for discussion next week.

 
Rookie

so who actually runs the scheduled class?

 
DC Capital Cons...

Curtis runs the class.

I speak often.

 
Rookie

very good thx for all the info

 
Pip_Whisperer

Hey DC,

Nice trading!

"So, DXY or any of the indexes can definitely be used on smaller time frames, to provide potential trade opportunities."

I surely hope that I did not represent a position that the USDX - or any other index - is useful only in higher time frames. I certainly don't labor under that belief.
I consider all time frames with all instruments. I determine my bias and target levels based upon higher time frames, while finding my entries in price action on lower time frames to improve my R:R, and I compare (superimpose, even) an index chart, correlating commodity etc continuously, looking for confirmation and divergence.
Though the Dollar has been rather range-bound on the higher time-frames, the USDX has by no means lost its utility on lower ones.

-see the big picture-

 
DC Capital Cons...

Pip, I was only suggesting that DXY can be useful in range bound times on smaller time frames. But of course, that's only if one's trading plan includes trading in such a situation

 
mfergok

Glad to have found this thread. I'm trying to utilize the Dollar Index, (USDX, DXY, depending on which platform I can access). I agree with Pip_Whisperer, this provides clues to bias and direction. I'm still trying to build my confidence in my analysis AND follow through as a trader. There are many great analysts, not all of whom trade well. Being able to see where the market is likely to go is a great skill and being able to see confirmation, divergence and the like is so very helpful in making the confident execution of a trade. It won't always be right, but using the tools correctly sure does help.

 
Rookie

What I have just started doing with indices/indexes is tracking a few to get the feel for them. Then like with DXY I add the correlated and non correlated pairs, that one was fairly easy to figure out. Next I will do the same with a few other key incises. Over all may take me six months but who is in such a great hurry as long as my stats are steadily improving.

One point of note as tyguy pointed out Bitcoin moved ten% the same day as the DXY move, when I looked it up the Bitcoin moved in think 2 hrs prior to the USD move. Just something to do some research on.

 
lancevoorhees

1 Lynn SC,

I went to the website you referenced for the Currency Strength Indicator. You made it sound fascinating. When I went the site was closed for servicing. I will check it out again soon. Thanks for the heads up.

 
vesskrastev

Regarding using different time frames on USDX. ProAct provides a chart for the dollar index, which is identical in features with the charts of all the currency pairs. I don't know where they get this chart from and how, but it is extremely useful. Any change in the USDX (for example on the 15 min chart) immediately is displayed in the dollar pairs - they follow it precisely. I used to think about USDX once a day and use that info during the whole day - the result was that in the beginning I was successful, and after a few hours not that much. The reason was that sometimes the dollar index changed direction on the smaller time frames and my initial expectations were no longer right. Now I am trying to get in the habit of checking on the USDX multiple times during the day.

Using Divergence to predict changes in the direction a currency pair is moving is one of the pillars in the Proactive analyses. They have an achronim: Trade For Pips Daily (TFPD). T stands for Trend, F for Fibonaccis, P for Previous Support and Resistence, and D - for Divergence. Anytime Divergence is found (and they are concerned with the 60 min and 240 min (H4) timeframes), they will reirerate: "Divergence means that the end is near (but not here)". I still have a very long way to go in learning their methodolgy, but the very first thing they do in the beginning of the daily analyses, is to look at the USDX, and based on what it shows, to decide on the general direction the majors are taking, then a lot more follows in order to detail the expectations for the future movements of the prospective pairs. When the USDX is kind of expected to change direction, every single time at the end it is stressed upon checking on USDX, since a change in USDX will change all the other expectations. They do use a lot the "exotic" pairs for 2 reasons - first, the majority of them have bigger ATR's, and second - those of them, in which USD is not present, provide the opportunity to diversify, to move away from the dollar, when the next movement of USDX is not clear.

 
Rookie

@vesskrastev, good post.
I don't trade exoctic pairs. I'm having my hands full with the 28 pairs we have available in Apiary Fund on Alvero.
The USDX divergence item is a great observation.
Aside from the USD base/quote pairs usually move likewise or opposite do you have insight on trading which pairs with other pairs with correlation and uncorrelation?
I'll just have to get another monitor to monitor items like USDX.

 
vesskrastev

Hi Rookie! Proactive (and me) are not concerned with correlation and uncorrelation. Not that it is not present - no, they simply consider it of a lot smaller importance than figuring out the intentions of the banker, who trades the pair they are looking at. "Exotic" they call pairs which we do have, it is just their way of addressing all of the non major pairs. The only pair we don't have, and I think it is a big loss, is AUSJPY. I will make a proposal to add it to the pairs we trade - it is an active pair, independent of USD, EUR, GBP, and on top of that it's most active time is during the Asian session - the time when most of the non professional traders in USA actually do trade (they sleep during the London session and work during the New York session).

 
Rookie

thanks for the reply and at Apiary you can't use the reverse either ..... but you could use the closest correlated pair... but no one said life is fair.

 
triguylm1

Since when has anything in the markets made sense? Most of the time PA trades within 100 pip daily range depending on the currency pair.

The DX has been bearish since Jan. 4th, 2018 and this has been the trend direction for the last 90 days as one can see the correlation with the EUR/USD pair, not so much with the USD/CAD, or even the USD/JPY.

Looking forward, if the DX bearish trend continues, which is most likely to happen since Trump has put a tariff on trading aluminum and steel. Which will go into effect in 15 days, according to the report (https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tariffs-taking-effect-i... ).

Is this a good thing? As the dollar continues to drop in the months ahead, then expect gold to run bullish again.

Below is the example of the bearish US dollar index, D1 chart:

Capture DX Bearish Channel Lines.PNG
 
vesskrastev

Rookie, I have to apologize. What I said above is not 100% correct. ProAct does not have "quantative" recommendations regarding correlation/uncorrelation. They do have "qualitative" rule - do not trade at the same time correlated pairs. For example EURUSD and USDCHF are in an inverse relationship. They do move in sync, but in opposite directions. When EURUSD moves up at the same time USDCHF moves down, and vice versa. The rule is - do not trade both pairs at the same time. The reason - if you are right, that is a double win, but if you are wrong... The same applies to the GBPUSD and USDJPY.

There is an obvious correlation between CAD and WTI (West Texas Intermidiate) - the crude oil index. The Canadian dollar is extremely dependent on crude oil prices, and they depend on the oil inventories. High inventories mean lower crude price and lower CAD, and vice versa. High inventories are good for USA and bad for Canada (and vice versa)

High inventories
USDCAD - UP
CADJPY - DOWN

Low inventories
USDCAD - DOWN
CADJPY - UP

 
Rookie

very good thank you.

 
Rookie

very good thank you.

 
donnydd3

This morning secretary of state Rex Tillerson was replaced by CIA director Mike Pompeo. We still don't know yet who will replace Gary Cohn. If you are keeping score at home please use a pencil or dry erase board. Larry Kudlow's name has been bandied about as a replacement for Cohn. The news about Tillerson came out about the same time as CPI this morning and seemed to take precedent. President Trump is cleaning house. I am not certain about what this means for the markets. I suspect not much at all. The dollar is not performing well this morning with the exception of Yen which has weakened overnight. The Kiwi led the way with an early surge in Asia and followed by Aussie and GBP and Euro.

 
ZackinCO

Huh. I don’t typically pay attention to the dollar index but I certainly will after reading this thread.

 
Rookie

and especially after FOMC and such as they will usually have a great effect on the $DXY which will inturn especially affect the USD pairs.

 
josephhsiung

Lately USD/JPY doesn't quite goes with $DXY.

 
triguylm1

So, lately the DX is under bullish pressure, and that has held support on Jan. 25, 26, Feb. 1, 2 and Feb. 15, 16. near 88.41. Meaning the market has found some bullish sentiment from improving job market and US oil production numbers. Interest rate increase may have already been accounted in the market so, that may not have as much bearish sentiment as last year.

See DX chart below. D1 Chart: Shows March 2017 to March 2018

Note: the consolidation phase and how support has held.

Capture DX Counter Trend in March.PNG
 
alan_6

DAILY CORRELATION BETWEEN USDJPY AND DXY
===========================================

The strength of correlation is determined by the sample size.
The smaller the sample size the less accurate the correlation calculation.
To improve the correlation calculation over a smaller daily sample size time frame should be reduced to increase calculation accuracy for a smaller number of days.

180 DAY SAMPLE = +80% CORRELATION (Strong Correlation)
90 DAY SAMPLE = +85% CORRELATION (Strong Correlation)
30 DAY SAMPLE = +20% CORRELATION (Weak Correlation / Less accurate calculation)

1 HR CORRELATION BETWEEN USDJPY AND DXY
==========================================

Equivalent to daily correlation with 30 day sample size.

500 1HR SAMPLES = +27% CORRELATION (Weak Correlation but calculation is more accurate)

 
alan_6

As a trend trader I always look to find the strongest currency and the weakest currency and pair them up. I believe this helps to ensure a stronger trend and hopefully larger profits. Sometimes this may include USD and at other times it may not. Over the last couple of months USD has never been the strongest currency or the weakest so my trading over this time period has not included USD.

 
pabergin

Some thoughts on $USD chart

USD 3.18.18.png
 
Rookie

Nice chart!

 
Rookie

SOme of the USD followers may find this BP brief summary leading up to FMOC week interesting.
https://www.babypips.com/news/usd-weekly-review-20180316?utm_source=Baby...

 
dmcgrath440

I do not use the US Dollar index because on my charts it is only updated daily, So I use the UUP (Powershare US dollar index) because it is updated like any other chart and can be viewed on a 5min 30 min etc.
It gives me a good idea where the US dollar is moving during the day.

 
Rookie

DM What chart service?

 
Rookie

Thx for the post

 
Chuck HTown

Thx for the info. I also monitor the DXY but have yet to find a viable site to chart it. If anyone knows of such please advise.

 
rwfthr

Thank you This information is so helpful

 
alan_6

Chuck HTown - Use TradingView.com

DXY2.png
 
Rookie

Major shift this am on the USDX from sell to Buy,

https://www.investing.com/analysis/phew-dollar-finds-support-or-does-it-...

4. Dollar finds some support

The ‘big’ dollar is slightly better bid against G10 currency pairs, supported mostly by the continued disappointing inflation data out of Europe.

GBP/USD (£1.4191) is trading below the key £1.42 handle, falling -0.77% outright after this morning’s disappointing March inflation data (see below). Market expectations for a May BoE rate hike have moved only marginally lower from +86% to around +78%, however, any additional hikes down the road is very much put in question.

Like wise for the ‘single’ unit, the EUR/USD (€1.2365) is softer by -0.2% as this mornings March Final CPI data was revised lower to +1.3% vs. +1.4%e. The headline print supports the recent patience rhetoric from ECB members on achieving the inflation target.

USD/JPY (¥107.25) is a tad higher, helped by prospects of reduced trade tensions and an easing in geo-political tensions.

Note: US President Donald Trump to meet Japan’s PM Shinzo Abe today and there are reports that CIA Director Pompeo met with North Korean leader Kim during visit to North Korea over Easter.

AttachmentSize
G3 W1 momentum worksheet.xlsx 13.28 KB
G3 W1 momentum worksheet.xlsx 13.41 KB
 
Rookie

How can we use this data?
As a general rule of thumb, when the dollar is heading up so are the USD base pairs and conversely the quote pairs are heading downward.

Barchart.com
Previous Close 92.44
YTD High 92.64
YTD Low 88.25
14-Day Stochastic %K 95.81%
Weighted Alpha -4.40
5-Day Change +1.25 (+1.37%)

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 72% Buy with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Longer term, the trend strength is Maximum. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.
The market is in highly overbought territory. Beware of a trend reversal.

Overall Average:
72% BUY
Overall Average Signal calculated from all 13 indicators. Signal Strength is a long-term measurement of the historical strength of the Signal, while Signal Direction is a short-term (3-Day) measurement of the movement of the Signal.

 
Rookie

Fellow Bee's I just wanted to share this (bragging or boasting).
As we all know the DXY is bullish, going up in value. Which means the base USD pairs are going down and the quote USD pairs are going up. This is a very good time to capitalize on that movement.
I have about ten trades on all except GBPJPY are USD quote sided. All including GBPJPY are sells. My risk today is 2.75 even with this morning two EURUSD pullbacks still negative about 25 pips each.

I would put more trades on but I'm trying to be cautious.

 
Rookie

USDX WK chart

On the D1 Chart it is already started to head south. On the WK chart attached it has hit a resistance level and is ready to head south.
CCI on the D1 is heading south and on the week chart is overbought ready to break south.

That said Barchart opinion doesn't support a sell at this time. And https://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-candlestick shoes a brief south then bounce to a buy in agreemnt with barchart.

barchart stats
Weighted Alpha -3.12
5-Day Change -0.01 (-0.01%)
BUY The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 56% Buy with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long term indicators mostly agree with the trend.

US Dollar 1WK 5-12.JPG
 
pabergin

It's a likely area for price to reverse to the downside. I'm on guard for a change.

Decent amount of bearish evidence on the chart, but anything can happen!

usd5.12.png
 
Rookie

Thx Pab, any usually does these days.

 
Rookie

https://www.marketpulse.com/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTURnMk5qVXdPRE5tWkdJeCIsInQ...

Dollar Ends Rally Awaiting US Retail Sales Data
Alfonso Esparza, 11 May 2018 | 17:15 EST

The US dollar rally lost momentum during the week and recorded its third day of depreciation versus other major pairs. The USD continues to gain versus emerging market currencies as more signs of a global growth slowdown appear. The US consumer price index (CPI) came in under expectations and raised concerns on how many rate hikes could the Fed get way with in 2018. Retail sales data will be published on Wednesday, May 15 at 8:30 am EDT. The changes to the tax code are touted as a victory for the White House but consumers will have the final say on its impact on spending.
• US Retail sales expected to keep rising at steady pace
• Oil prices to keep rising as uncertainty remains in the Middle East
• NAFTA negotiations to continue as US President Trump still critical of deal
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOME/AUD/CAD/CENTRAL BANK WATCH/CHF/CNH/COMMODITIES/CURRENCY/DEAN'S FX/ECONOMIC EXPOSURE/EUR/GBP/JPY/MARKET PULSE/MXN/NZD/SGD/USD
Dollar Ends Rally Awaiting US Retail Sales Data
May 11, 2018 Share
The US dollar rally lost momentum during the week and recorded its third day of depreciation versus other major pairs. The USD continues to gain versus emerging market currencies as more signs of a global growth slowdown appear. The US consumer price index (CPI) came in under expectations and raised concerns on how many rate hikes could the Fed get way with in 2018. Retail sales data will be published on Wednesday, May 15 at 8:30 am EDT. The changes to the tax code are touted as a victory for the White House but consumers will have the final say on its impact on spending.

US Retail sales expected to keep rising at steady pace
Oil prices to keep rising as uncertainty remains in the Middle East
NAFTA negotiations to continue as US President Trump still critical of deal
USD Loses Momentum with Retail Sales Hurdle Ahead
-----------------------------------

The EUR/USD lost 0.08 percent in the last five days. The single currency is trading at 1.1950 as the USD depreciated as investors closed their long dollar positions. European Central Bank (ECB) President has stated that there are concerns about European growth, which could translate into lower rates for longer even as the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps tightening monetary policy with an expected 2 to 3 more rate lifts this year.

European indicators to keep a look out this week include the preliminary figures of German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due on Tuesday, May 15 at 2:00 am. The EU will also publish the flash GDP figures at 5:00 am EDT. Both numbers are expected to show a gain of 0.4 percent. German Economic Sentiment published by the ZEW had a shock drop last month and that trend is expected to continue with a –8 reading as institutional investors and analysts remain pessimistic about the German outlook.

The final estimate of the European consumer price index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday, May 16 at 5:00 am EDT with a forecast of 1.2 percent.
-----------------------------------
Canadian Dollar Higher Due to Oil Price Lift

The USD/CAD lost 0.52 percent during the week. The currency pair is trading at 1.2781 as the loonie had a volatile week after the US announced it would be pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal. The price of oil pushed higher and took the CAD along for the ride. The USD lost momentum with the release of weaker than expected inflation data on Wednesday. Less inflationary pressure could end up with the Fed shelving a third rate hike from the already priced in 2 upcoming ones this year.

Canadian dollar weekly graph May 7, 2018
The Canadian dollar closed the week on the wrong foot with employment data missing the forecast with a lost of 1,100 positions instead of the gain of 18,000 jobs. Wages rose at a 3.3 percent clip and buried in the report was the fact that Canada had added 28,800 full time jobs. The data continues to be mixed but could put the Bank of Canada (BoC) off from hiking rates just yet. The market expects at least a rate hike in 2018 so the central bank can close the gap with the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Inflation will be key at the end of the week with the release of the Canadian CPI data on Friday, May 18 at 8:30 am EDT. Inflationary pressures have been positive as the Canadian economy seems to have gotten out of the growth slump, but outside factors remain on the BoC radar. The NAFTA renegotiation has accelerated in the last month, but now it has reached a difficult point as the US deadline approaches. The deadline is an arbitrary date on May 17, but if all three nations can’t agree on a way moving forward the hard deadline of the Mexican Presidential elections on July 1st could push any probabilities of a new round of negotiations until next year.

US President Donald Trump continues to criticize the deal as he met with representatives of the auto sector on Friday. The US team has softened its hardball tactics, but to reach an agreement it might have to do more to guarantee the other partners agree to its demands.

Negotiators from Canada, Mexico and the United States were working throughout the week and although they all mentioned great progress a deal remains out of reach. Negotiations will resume next week .

Oil Continues Upward Trend on Uncertainty of Iran’s Supply

The price of West Texas Intermediate remains above $71 in the aftermath of the US pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal. The greenback rose as investors looked to the currency as a safe haven. US President Donald Trump announced that the US would be pulling out of the 2015 nuclear agreement and would reimpose economic sanctions on Iranian exports. The move was not unexpected as the Trump administration had criticized the deal but allies were hoping the US would remain, as it stands there are still 5 nations who are backing the deal. The United Kingdom, France, China , Russia and Germany remained committed to the deal where Iran will receive no sanctions as long as it complies with stopping its uranium enrichment program.
-------------------

It is still unclear what the true effects of the US ending its participation in the deal. Although sanctions will come into effect, the fact that support remains from other nations as long as Iran continues to uphold its end of the deal take some of the pain from lost oil export revenue.

Global supply is not an issue. Demand has not increased significantly which is why the biggest factor before this geopolitical event was the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers limiting output. The US shale industry is ready to step in and cover any shortfall from Iranian supply.

 
Rookie

Todds six is basically a biased USD pair trading index. I use this setup on one screen. After some thought, I went thru the Apiary pairs and balanced my USD Bias with both quote pairs and base pairs to trade for an against the USD indices in total. I will trade this bias for a week and I'll be back.

 
vesskrastev

A young and very talented analyst two days ago posted on YouTube a video with his predictions for the possible future movements of USDX. 94.37 is a threshhold value for USDX. If it clibbs above it, that would mean a continuation of the 5th wave up of USDX. If it stays below, as it does for the moment, Pablo's predictions may come true.

Pleas expand the image in order to get rid od the surrounding stuff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONkFlitc8Ps

 
BruceWayneTrades

I base all my trades off of DXY for alignment. Key to also follow US 10 YR especially this recent move above 3% which put a ton of pressure on EM currencies. Right now the overall experts in the market think that USD is overbought and they are searching for the bottom on the emerging market currencies.

 
Rookie

Vess, thanks for this post, and compliment Pablo on his English enunciation improvement.

While I used a week chart i9nstead of the 4H Pablo used I certainly think we are in agreement and from my CCI maybe a little more do. When I see the three bar reversal I'm in... but I will already be in so I'll look for the validity no trend zone and await the reversal.

Thanks for Pablo's heads up.

$DXY 1WH 5-20-2018.JPG
 
vesskrastev

You are welcome Ed. I love watching Pablo's videos, will gladly thank him and post other ones when appropriate (and when he posted them on YouTube).

 
Rookie

NP, I do have many vids to watch as I am behind several in my studies.... I did watch this one because I'm going to trade a USD bias both with and without correlation, which can become dangerous when PA shifts.

 
Rookie

I have all 7 USD pairs loaded right now on 2Hr charts. and there are three strong divergences occurring, USDCHF, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, could be the warning of a slight change in the DXY.

 
BruceWayneTrades

DXY is just pumping tonight. USDJPY was crazy amazing. I shorted GBPUSD at the same time.

 
Rookie

thx Bruce I stayed out and went back to bed...

 
Rookie

As Vess posted USD is poised and ready for a southern exposure.

Barchart opinion this week was 96% buy and still, today/tomorrow is a 96% buy.
Overall Average:
96% BUY
Overall Average Signal calculated from all 13 indicators. Signal Strength is a long-term measurement of the historical strength of the Signal, while Signal Direction is a short-term (3-Day) measurement of the movement of the Signal.

And over at Investing.com, almost all the Apiary USD quote pairs are still a strong sell.

So the change
e is coming for sure the climb up has been nothingness than spectacular with a slope of at least 70% implying exhaustion.

It still as a little way to go before it hits the resistance area and may linger there a bit in a battle with the bears, Who knows Friday AM has some red news but next week come Wednesday be where.

I would be looking for a big money sucker move and then the southern movements to get underway.

Of course, that's just my pips worth from previous very bad nonfarm experience. Then, on the other hand, it may be so good along with ADP it will force a breakthrough and a new bear movement.

Say I must be learning I can say all that with data and say absolutely nothing... what a hoot!

$DXY WK.JPG
 
BruceWayneTrades

I observed an exception to DXY -> USDJPY behavior two days ago when the market went risk off. When the Market goes risk off, money flows from USD into safe havens like the Yen, Swissy and Gold. The risk off was due to further trade war talk regarding car imports into the US and Pence's interview on Fox when he doubled down on the Libyan Model after Trump already back tracked after Bolton mentioned it first. Although Pence's interview didn't escalate until yesterday when North Korea called him a Political dummy. So 2 nights ago, Yen was massive in terms of currency strength vs USD, it was super steep and far from the USD line. DXY had reversed loses from the day's DOW effect on stocks and was bullish, but the Yen going safe haven had more weighting. Maybe this has happened a lot in the past but it was the first time I really noticed the relationship.

 
Rookie

wOw! Check out the $DXY and the Barchart Opinion.

Barchart Technical Opinion
STRONG BUY
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 100% Buy and ranks in the Top 1% of all short-term signal directions.

Longer term, the trend strength is Maximum. Long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

Right on target for this weeks news!

DXY 730pm CST.JPG
 
Rookie

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DXY
https://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index

Many of you traders have noticed a very choppy market since yesterday a few hours before the NY open. The main reason, in my opinion, is the uncertainty of the $DXY over the next few days with the upcoming FOMC due Friday. Take it from my Jan & Feb experiences it can be a killer waiting to happen.

If you look at the investing.com chart the USD is and maybe paradoxically has been and is heading downwards.
And barchart.com has changed downgraded their rating from a 100% buy to 88% but the big picture in on the % alpha which is fluctuating from market session to market session. most notably on the red.

Now, this is what is my confusion. DXY is going down but base USED pairs have been falling as well and the opposite should be occurring. This is causing fluctuation or choppiness in Forex markets.

So whats it going today? I think whatever it is will happen friday. Just now we are being setup.

 
triguylm1

Like I mentioned above, DXY has been under bullish pressure from oil production numbers and positive job report, etc.

Notice the last 5 weeks as price has been moving up. However, today has been the exception. As one may expect, the DXY had a little market correction as a resistance zone matching December's 2017 pivot high.

Looking forward, expect the market to test the 95.0 level many more times.

 
Rookie

Interesting Bias Leslie, we shall see. One thing is fo sure in a theoretical zero-sum market there will be big winners and bigger losers..

 
BruceWayneTrades

Yep, 10 yr is under 3 percent as well. Pressure from Trade war talk.

 
BruceWayneTrades

1 hour candle tapped the overhead monthly trend I've had there for a very long time. DXY chart H1.

dxymay30h1.png
 
Rookie

This is a repost but noteworthy because of the analogy which might be occurring later today if the rate hike is announced as previously planned for this date;

Gold 1, huntb44 wrote;

Just a thought but when the rate hike goes through or doesn't I would watch the ZB bond. The bond is the cost of money. When the bond price goes higher, yields, of course, are going lower and visa verse. So when the bond rises, gold rises, when it falls, gold falls. It is a leading indicator. Absent war or some other international calamity it's an accurate predictor of gold price direction.

Tue, 06/12/2018 - 10:51pm

 
Rookie

What a real life action picture of USD action when the Dollar is on the move? check out to attachment of some USD base pairs vs USD quote Pairs, Not certain how long it will last but this is about as good as it gets.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DXY/opinion
Overall Average:
48% BUY
Overall Average Signal calculated from all 13 indicators. Signal Strength is a long-term measurement of the historical strength of the Signal, while Signal Direction is a short-term (3-Day) measurement of the movement of the Signal.

The attached chart is of the pairs I trade from investing.com which I use for my sanity checker.

USD Pairs 3am 6-13.JPG
 
julianrny

Rokie. Thak you for the good work you do.
All the information you put it here is very nice.
Keep up the support.

 
Rookie

@julianrny, thank you very much for the kind words After a day of hard yard work the words mean a lot.

 
Rookie

Take a lookie at my sanity checker, it's hard to fathom.

3pm CST 6-14-2018.JPG
 
Rookie

Vess Made a few good comments here about $DXY.
1. Wave theory
2. about metals in particular Silver and the USDX relationship.

Vess reposted from today.
On May 29th I discussed the possible ways for USDX to move further. One of the possibilities was that USDX was entering a fifth wave up. Now we may say that this is what happened. They are building a bullish pole on USDX. The pole is at the very top of a huge range and normally poles like that do not continue up. In our case though, USDX is in a fifth wave up, and the fifth wave always ends up higher than the third wave (the third wave ended on the upper edge of the range). Besides that, the way we verify future movements of gold is by monitoring the price of silver and gold. Silver had moved down, which confirms that USDX should move up.

Screenshot (5).png

 
Rookie

Someone posted this video this morning, Thank you.
I watched it, While the first 30 minutes are rather well known it builds into the issues we face today and the author believes needs to happen in order to fix the current debt dilemma but also shows how those in power to do something about it seem to not be around any longer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuiGwpVjJcM&feature=youtu.be
ConstitutionReport
Published on Dec 27, 2015
This is an amazing animated documentary that explains the history of banking, and currencies. This video also explains the difference between currencies with value and debt based currencies. This is a must-see for anyone with a bank account.

Unfortunately, this video falls short of getting into the forex interrelationship of money/currencies it is quite evident. However if one understands the relationship of dept to interest it would be a far greater predictor of what and how to trade.

This is exactly what Alan teaches in his, "Trading doesn't have to be difficult" strength and weakness report. While this is not revolutionary it is a relatively easy way to apply common sense.

What was a very interesting concept the video brought out is all this hocus about balancing the national debt? ERGO if no debt there is no money!

could that really be a truism?

I am so nieve.

 
Rookie

Bees, tomorrow and Friday we have a lot of news. Beware the USD will move and other pairs as well.
While there is a lot of reds the biggies, Non-Farm on 7:1AM CST Thursday and
FOMC at 1 pm CST on Thursday,
could be whoppers bringing the week up to speed after the holiday!

And there is my fav crude oil on Thursday as well at 10 am CST.

I suspect the $DXY to continue to rise and these reports to back up the movement.
If so a USD base pair long might do well.
A USD quote pair short might do well.

If $DXY goes south the inverse should hold.

That said if at all possible I will be out of all trades when they start.

 
Rookie

!.5 Hr before today's FOMC states this is not a very common sentiment setting at the end of the London.

Sentiment 645 AM CST 7-5-2018.JPG
 
vesskrastev

The direction of the Dollar Index (USDX)

USDX completed 5 waves up. Head and shoulders were also completed. USDX just hit 94.73 - the 786 fib of the previuos big move up (which is actually the 214 fib of the retracement of the last big move, the one which started at 89.74). It is normal to expect a slight bounce off and then down again. Between 94.73 (786 fib of the last big move up) and 94.61 (which is the 618 fib of the retracement of the last small move up of USDX), there is a resistance zone, and probably it will be a rocky road to follow. The target of the recent move down of USDX is S8 (Support 8), which is 94.46. Will see if everything moves according to this scenario.

Screenshot (57).png
 
Rookie

Vess, you may well be correct. My life is a tad simpler than that.

I look at the $DXY and see if it's going up or down Percent Alpha.

After that, it's all about the pairs and correlation or not.

I draw and channel with a center line and say it's going that way.

I check my momentum chart.

I look out for big news events.

If I think there is a trade I check the sentiment.

If I still agree for the time frame I place a trade.

 
vesskrastev

Ed, our routines are quite similar. I do start with the USDX - not to analyse everything, but just to figure out - up or down. After that, actually before that - what are the fundies today. Looking at a pair, if it is trending - then the trend with the middle line (heartline), if not - just the channel line. Momentum I see immediately - the chart shows that to me, if the candles are surrounded with a black line, than there is no momentum, if they are bright colored (red or green) - then there is a momentum. You can see all of that on the attachment. The sentiment I see from the horizontal and vertical windows, surraunding the main window. The horizontal ones on the bottom, they are Haiken Ashi, 60, 10, and 240 min (I can change the TF if necessary), and the vertical ones are special oscilators - 5, 30 and 240 min. In each one of these "supporting" windows there is a line on the top - HSI, it changes color - green, red, or black, neutral. When the Aiken Ashis are covered with wickes - it is a "gang fight", not very promising. The 240 show me what the big boys are doing, the 60 min shows what the next 500-800 institutional traders are doing, and the 10 and 5 show me what the retail drivers are doing - the combination of all of them is giving me the sentiment. If there is a Wide Open Space available, no barriers - than there is a trade, providing that there is enough space to the next target.

Screenshot (58).png
 
Rookie

Close yes, I might not be as picky as your methodology especially on lower time frames. Tonight I m expanding to a 15M time frame a big deal for me. I am also testing H2 thru WK with Bar Chart and previous months high and lowes with "thread the needle" analysis fore scalping it.

But m,y scalping is strictly PA which way did the train go. 2-3 pips and out. I don't care about news or any other indicator just which way is up, down or sideways.

 
Rookie

$DXY, Barchart opinion says;

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DXY
Barchart Technical Opinion
WEAK BUY
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is an 8% Buy with a Weakening short-term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum. Long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DXY/opinion
However when the more tab is clicked on the indicators are a short-term sell.

These stats may be a better indicator of the Sentiment;
U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY)
93.96 -0.50 (-0.53%) 07/06/18 [INDEX]
QUOTE OVERVIEW for Fri, Jul 6th, 2018 Alerts Watch Help
Day Low
93.92
Day High
94.48
Open 94.38
Previous Close 94.46
YTD High 95.53
YTD Low 88.25
14-Day Stochastic %K 18.48%
Weighted Alpha +0.41
5-Day Change -0.51 (-0.54%)

One might do well this week to check the Gold & Silver on my momentum worksheet.
XAG USD Sell 88% Strong
XAU USD Sell 88% Maximum
https://apiaryfund.com/forum/how-currency-cycle-correlates-cme-group-equ...
This knowledge should also help the commodity news trader when trading Forex news.

Of course, this all isn't news to commodity traders as it is there bread and butter.

So what does this say to rookie trade? USD will continue to rise but a week, XAG and XAU are excellent opportunities and Oil news should be traded.. Overall we will have the same uncertain market we had last week. Not to mention we shall see what the trade war sentiment will bring.

Remain ever diligent and cautious the week, Happy and profitable trading to all.

 
Rookie

I use the $DXY as an indicator but the DX futures may be a better predictor of real USD sentiment because of the basket weighting.
That said the basket weighting maybe good for the Forex market trading. I don't have the skills to run this comparison but I will add DXU to my weekly worksheet and see what the correlation can be drawn.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index
"US Dollar Index and major financial events.
The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies,[1] often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies.[2] The Index goes up when the U.S. dollar gains "strength" (value) when compared to other currencies.[3]:"

 
Rookie

For those of us the USE the $DXY as a tool, just a bit ago I pointed out a USDCHF inversion, well I was a bit rash there are more USD crosses doing an inversion this AM on both sides of the fence.

$DXY 615am CST 7-16-2019=8.JPG
 
Rookie

DXY if you were watching DXY the lat so 24 hours, see the attached image and trading the USD base pairs (USDJPY. USDCHF, USDCAD) you might have earned 100 pips without any laddering etc,
Then if you traded the Quote pairs another 50 pips each until the pull back a little bit ago.

Now just close your eyes and imagine that you laddered it!

DXY 2am CST 7-18-2118.JPG
 
Rookie

Trading the DXY, the attachment displays about 30 minutes just after the Euro opened at 2 am CST.
I did need to close the USD pairs that made these pipes as the DXY is going strong and simply waited for the next market ebb.
But That would not have fit the plan.
This is the result of a basket trade of all 9 USD currencies taken at once.

My Indicator is the $DXY as displayed on https://www.tradingview.com/chart/aRzXaJDL/.
For correlating information I am using Barchart https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DXY
note: the weighted alpha is a plus 3.15 with a 96% buy and the strongest possible short-term strength.

Frankly, if you trade the base pairs bullish and the quote pairs bearish it would be hard to lose overall.

USD Euro Open 7-19.JPG
 
triguylm1

Thanks RNM,

I have to agree with overall market sentiment as you described above. But, I still went long off Thursday's Pivot low and earned another huge profit day with long XAG/USD positions. the move was 28 pips, but my leverage is $1.50 per pip. So around $42.00 profit per trade.

Capture Silver July 19 and 20.PNG
 
Rookie

Ttiguy, that's my point, While I have not focused on metals with the current USDollar being so definitive both Gold and Silver have presented some real money making opportunities far above the regular pair trading. As my trading buddy pointed out currently Silver is on average 5X more profitable than the usual pair.

I have located the index for each of the Apiary traded currencies. I have focused on the DXY but will expand that to include JXY for the Asian market, Than maybe next year the Aussi and NZ markets for when I'm sleeping trades after our spreads come down.

However, now I am focusing on the DXY and the USD crosses with the laid back expanded scalping. I have also made a few adjustments in my expectations with the summer doldrums.

Glad you're doing well and profiting!

 
Rookie

Sunday 6 pm CST 7/22/2018 Do you see this?
Check out this spike then look at the USD crosses moved 20 Pips and its done.

How do I know it's done? the next two candles are still moving down.
No matter the volume is gone and you get out. CCI says so!

We don't trade maybes only momentum...

You See 6pm CST.JPG
 
Rookie

For those that are up, DXY is making its morning before the open move, now. It is heading south.
At this moment USDJPY and NZDUSD are not cooperating. But the rest of the crosses are doing quite well.
-------------
Well, this move was a bit short-lived ... There will be a strong one to come.

 
Rookie

For those traders that may have slept thur all these pips howbeit including yours truly. For basket traders, there are two slides for 100 pips each. BTW one slid happens almost every night but two.... is great.

DXY at 6am CST.JPG
 
dubs

Looking at the DXY and its daily chart... one can see a very apparent h/s setup... Think today's lowering will continue for many days to follow... Sure seems a currency war is afoot...Ah, to be a funded trader... one of these daze...

 
Rookie

Dubs hang in there it's just around the block.

 
Rookie

Bar Chart DXY moved from a 56% buy to HOLD today.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DXY/opinion

Overall Average:
HOLD
Overall Average Signal calculated from all 13 indicators. Signal Strength is a long-term measurement of the historical strength of the Signal, while Signal Direction is a short-term (3-Day) measurement of the movement of the Signal.

This will translate into some risky trading for most trend trades.

 
Rookie

US dollar coiling for a pop. Which way?
https://forexlive.com/news/!/dxy-coiling-price-action-20180727

Hint, look at tomorrow mornings news at 7:30 am CST.

Attached is a monthly chart to display both the current channel but more importantly the upside room to expand.

DXY Clue.JPG
 
Rookie

The DXY week ahead appears to be more of the same coiling,

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DXY

With weight Alpha holding at +.2,56 the opinion is
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 56% Buy with an Average short-term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

Two averages spell channeling and wobbling with no breakout insight. That said on the H2 chart EURUSD is 200 PIpS wide so there are some Pips to be made going from channel boundary to boundary.

In other DXY news; liquidity might be close at hand.

Dollar treads water as key central bank meetings loom
Forex15 minutes ago (Jul 29, 2018 08:40PM ET)
https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-treads-water-as-key-cen...

 
Rookie

DXY overnight change
Weighted Alpha to +2.30
Barchart Technical Opinion
WEAK BUY
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 24% Buy with a Weakest short-term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

And
http://www.grnewsletters.com/archive/www_fxacademy_com/Forex-Overview-Ju...

 
Rookie

Barchart Technical Opinion
HOLD
The Barchart Opinion rating is a Hold. Short term, the outlook is Steady.

weighted Alpa now +2.08
---------------------------------
If you thought this morning trading was choppy just wait, it will get worse,

Plan accordingly.

 
FFinfo_43

Very interesting and informative.

 
earthaug

I use a dual screen with the usd/chf and eur/usd on two computers, one with Alveo and the other with MB Trading that I use to map out the Fibs, trend lines and remembered lines. It is amazing how the two correlate, and interesting how one will take the lead on dollar strength or weakness.

 
earthaug

I use a dual screen with the usd/chf and eur/usd on two computers, one with Alveo and the other with MB Trading that I use to map out the Fibs, trend lines and remembered lines. It is amazing how the two correlate, and interesting how one will take the lead on dollar strength or weakness.

 
earthaug

I use a dual screen with the usd/chf and eur/usd on two computers, one with Alveo and the other with MB Trading that I use to map out the Fibs, trend lines and remembered lines. It is amazing how the two correlate, and interesting how one will take the lead on dollar strength or weakness.

 
Rookie

@earthanug, you shall be funded soon!
I don't find it interesting, it is a truism, it is axiomatic and 90% accurate maybe even higher. (some lag just a bit)
When the DXY is going up the Base Pairs are going up and the Quote USD pairs are going down. And when DXY is going down the inverse is true.

Now if that isn't cool enough it happens in each market and daily on the circadian cyclical 24 daily routines.

The implications of the possible pips are wide indeed! It is so exciting!

 
martygutierrez

Have you ever used a currency strength indicator? There are some that you can use for free. Complete Currency Trader web site has one just click on "tools" and then "currency strength meter". This is a good way of monitoring which currencies are weak or strong for the days trading session.

 
Rookie

I have, and a few different types. For me, they are hard to read. Also, I want to focus on one set of crosses. The index trading resolves all that for me.

The index for me is the indicator as it is the bottom line commodity, Some might argue with the calling the index a commodity for a few reasons however for my thinking the currency is a commodity, like an inventory and the value of that inventory will fluctuate with the local and global economics. So the index tells the story of "now" with a currency. So the index is my indicator for that index's crosses.

 
Rookie

$DXY this morning before all the big news which will start at 7:15 am EST, Jeffs CATT class.
weighted alpha is +2.44 and on the rise.
Barchart Technical Opinion
BUY
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 40% Buy with an Average short-term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

Just got up and;

I, unfortunately, have several open trades that I don't really want o close out of. The bad news they are currently unrealized negative collectively 175 maybe 200-250 by the time news hits in a 2,500 account. with 95 pipes in the bank.
The good news is the is US news and I trade USD crosses. So if the news goes up I'm good. If news goes down I'm not so good.

What would you do?
Gamble on the news or take the safe bet, eat the pips and close.

 
dubs

Apparently the Crude Oil Inventories saved your bacon for the time being.... The DXY seems flat by late morning.... suppose all bets on hold until after Fed statement!

 
dubs

Actually... DXY is not flat... it hit a fib extension(50.0%) @ $94.491 and bounced up past 61.8% and was still rising ($94.669)

 
Rookie

I had to work a bit and did a couple of stupid losers but about doublede my pips today and if I wanted to could close out the unrealized of 140 and still be 40 pips positive.

The DXY is in a bearish channel but I have four USD quote pairs that are short and two that are long. Thus if the upswing continues and except for the news, it appears it will the shorts are safe. A good pull back and my longs will close. I should all be good! So an immediate down move and a bounce all will be kewl beans.

 
John49

I"ll have to try trading view, been wondering where I could find the dollar index, thanks for the info

 
Rookie

DXY is on most chart platforms, sometimes you need to click on indices first and sometimes it's $DXY and not just DXY.
Tradingview is free (with ads) and the signal is pretty good. Maybe a tad delayed but works for me.

 
Rookie

2 AM CST Euro Open - Asain End, DXY is good to Rock
With a +2.80 weighted Alpha and an opinion of;
Barchart Technical Opinion
BUY
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 48% Buy with a Strengthening short-term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Longer term, the trend strength is Average. Long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.
----------
One hour later, now just about 4 am CST, the opinion is a 64% buy...

 
Mike Smith

Nice to wobble on.

 
Rookie

Mike this is a bit more than wobbling on... this is roaring on! I don't use my sentiment chart much these days except when I want a 3 or 4th opinion of trading Gold or Silver. I will pull up this analysis from investing.com. I am looking for solid red or green for all time frames on the XAG and XAU crosses.

Got a bonus today, re my post 2 am just above and all the USD crosses are lockstep with DXY!
Base Pairs / Quote Pairs.

Sentiment of the DXY.JPG
 
Rookie

DXY Chart,

So basically this is how I start my trading day,
1. Barchart, DXY opinion
2. DXY chart, pics are worth many PIPS
3. The sentiment with further confirmation is sought
4. Check the news...

Lastly, my own Alvio charts and trade away!

Awesome just awesome.

Remember if you trade the Open any market the volatility is greater, risk accordingly.

DXY Chart.JPG
 
Mike Smith

Roar on!

 
Rookie

Starting the week off, happy piping to all. Let's let the pre-market kickoff begin.
1st stop is for the Bar Chart opinion of the DXY.
Weighted Alpha is at a +3.59 and
Barchart Technical Opinion
Short Term is a STRONG BUY (the short term here is 3 days)
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Buy with a Strongest short-term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.
As the market hasn't opened yet from the weekend sometimes this will change substantially as sentiment gets priced in.

2nd stop and usually only once or twice weekly I check for agreement on
https://www.investing.com/technical/personalized-quotes-technical-summary
I am looking for solid green or red horizontal in the time frames chosen.
Ideally, you want the Base [paies to be the same color as the DXY
and the quote pairs to be opposite the DXY color.
If they are very mixed consider taking the say off or go to a sim account and sharpen you scalping skills.
Also if the were to occur the weighted Alpha would be changing rapidly.
before I leave this site I will drill down on the DXY and check out the latest news.

3rd stop is the news calendar, whats coming up?
https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
A few UD but mostly dominated by NZD and GBP.
So no biggy for the USD week, that said one must still be vigilant for an action-reaction from a highly correlated pair.

4th stop my charts. are the two sets of base and quote pairs in agreement with the DXY direction.
At this point, we can plan our first trades.
I use the tradingview DXY chart https://www.tradingview.com/chart/aRzXaJDL/

Next just wait until the market opens, listen to a Shawn trading room or other exceptional education materials.
Worst comes to worst you can always read a book... or listen to Mark Douglas on Youtube.

 
Rookie

Todays DXY outlook is not much changed from yesterday.
The weighted alpha is a green +3.89 and has been in this rage for a few days now. While the opinion is a continuation of the bullish trend I think mainly due to the negative other currencies.
Barchart Technical Opinion
STRONG BUY
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 100% Buy and ranks in the Top 1% of all short-term signal directions.
Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/!/dollar-index-approaches-familiar-levels-top-heavy-again-20180806
an interesting POV here.

 
triguylm1

But, now a little bearish pressure from Asian Stocks on the rise.

 
Rookie

Yes, really pushing my risk limits... when I full in and I'm usually 50-75% but because I have some trades left open to fix from this am, I happen to be position-wise full in.... not comfortable with it in this morning's PA southern exposure.

 
Rookie

My Perfect storm was all night. That came after a solid green week.
Pips Today -407.60 Risk Today -4.45% Equity today loss of about $90.00

I am sharing this not so nice learning experience for others to learn from in Letter your willers ri=un and curring your losers early.
This was entirely my fault for failing to trade what I see.

Some of you read my daily DXY post, this is a good reminder that while the technicals are a good source of information, you are still the single best source of information. Trade what you see.
What happened here.
I got stupid allowing trades to run negative firmly believing the PA will return as I figured. ANd it will just not in time for the equity in this account.
During the decline of my pips, I place several trades based on a candle or two, my position keeps growing worse.
Yesterday just prior to the sweep I closed out of several positions negatively that were to take advantage of the price drop because I stubbornly insisted it was going to to go north. Ok, that was a - 50 pips, NP I still had + 90 pips left and closed the day green.
Now the PA continued south against my instructions. Why the never. I counter with more trades. And my position grows worse.
Now the biggest problem for a trader is getting lopsided and not having any positions or money left to trade with. Complied with in Alveo the 5% shutdown factor putting the trader in the damned if you do and damned if you don't position. Because if you close the positions it doesn't help the risk factor and you still have no more latitude to trade in.

Bottom line DXY hit 90.30 I shut down the trade,
At 90.50 it found support and is proceeding nicely where it should have gone in the first place...LOL

On the attachment, I have placed the DXY as of maybe 1 Hour ago.
I have placed a row of three USD quote pairs/crosses
and a row of three USD Base pairs/crosses.

These images clearly show the base/quote relates to the DXY which I treating as the commodity.

AttachmentSize
The big Drop 8-7-2018.xlsx 1.76 MB
 
Rookie

So after settling down from this morning foot stomping for being so stupid in the first place, I decided I would get my Pips back. Unfortunately, no $$ left today in the above account so I am using a different account that is 10 times larger. From 2K to 20K So to level the odds so to speak I am going from .02Q to .10Q... (note the times are in CST)

This is my type of payback!

Revenger.JPG
 
Rookie

BTW for AU and AG traders while I am not trading these pairs they are USD quote cross. You might want to look at selling them short.

From investing.com analysis; 15 minute, hourly, 5 hours, Daily sentiment reflect below.

XAU/USD
1,208.73

Moving Averages: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell
Indicators: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell
Summary: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell
XAG/USD
15.345

Moving Averages: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell
Indicators: Strong Sell Strong Sell Sell Strong Sell
Summary: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell

 
alan_6

DXY has been in an upward trend since February 2018. However for both June and July DXY made monthly indecision candles with July being more bearish than June. Normally what happens after a long run up when the market paints an indecision candle it marks the end of the trend. While this happens the majority of the time it doesn't always happen. So here is what I see: So far in August DXY has continued to trade inside the monthly high and low of the July monthly candle indicating the US dollar remains undecided as to which direction to trend. A monthly close above the July high of 95.65 is required to keep the upward trend in tack. Whereas a monthly close below the July low of 93.71 is required to reverse the trend from up to down.

 
Rookie

Thanks, Alan for the insight, my crystal ball says we will see above the 95.65 level! But sentiment will prevail.

 
PowerTrader23

I too was caught short overnight in the EUR/USD and kept adding to the position with micro lots to scale into the anticipated drop. The upward momentum continued into the a.m. and through the day. I finally tapped out, although I still anticipate penetration of the support level and momentum to the downside. Playing low and slow until I can get back into the rhythm. Day before I cleared over 400 Pips, gave that back plus a lot more today. Always learning something new the hard way. Thanks for all your information!

 
Rookie

Getting ready to trade today.

Barchart Technical Opinion
STRONG BUY
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is an 88% Buy with a Weakest short-term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DXY
Note the Weighted Alpha is gree +3.61a drop of about 25 points and the opinion an 88% a drop of 12%.

https://www.investing.com/technical/personalized-quotes-technical-summary
Timeframes for the below list: 15M, 1H, 5H, 1D

US Dollar Index
95.05
Moving Averages: Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy
Indicators: Strong Buy Strong Buy Sell Strong Buy
Summary: Strong Buy Strong Buy Neutral Strong Buy
SPDR S&P 500
285.58

Moving Averages: Neutral Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy
Indicators: Strong Sell Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy
Summary: Sell Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy
Dow 30
25,628.91

Moving Averages: Neutral Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy
Indicators: Sell Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy
Summary: Neutral Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy
USD/JPY
110.91

Moving Averages: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Sell
Indicators: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell
Summary: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell
USD/CHF
0.9957

Moving Averages: Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy
Indicators: Strong Buy Strong Buy Buy Strong Buy
Summary: Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy
USD/CAD
1.3079

Moving Averages: Strong Buy Strong Buy Buy Strong Buy
Indicators: Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Neutral
Summary: Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Buy
AUD/USD
0.7414

Moving Averages: Strong Sell Neutral Buy Neutral
Indicators: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Buy Buy
Summary: Strong Sell Sell Strong Buy Neutral
EUR/USD
1.1594

Moving Averages: Strong Sell Sell Sell Sell
Indicators: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Buy Strong Sell
Summary: Strong Sell Strong Sell Neutral Strong Sell
GBP/USD
1.2896

Moving Averages: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell
Indicators: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell
Summary: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell
XAU/USD
1,211.73

Moving Averages: Strong Sell Strong Sell Sell Strong Sell
Indicators: Strong Sell Sell Sell Strong Sell
Summary: Strong Sell Strong Sell Sell Strong Sell
XAG/USD
15.372

Moving Averages: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell
Indicators: Strong Sell Sell Sell Strong Sell
Summary: Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell

Checking the news;
https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Wed Aug 8
7:45 am CST USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
9:30 am CST USD Crude Oil Inventories

Then from 4 pm CST to 5 pm CST it's all about NZD.

 
alan_6

On the daily DXY chart I see an upward sloping Ending Diagonal pattern indicating the upward trend is in its final stage. A close below the pattern will indicate a reversal in trend from up to down. Again nothing is guarantee'd, only probabilities.

 
Rookie

absolutely, Alan, I use the Bands & CCI to confirm the action, however just because I can be right doesn't mean I will be correct. This morning was an excellent example of that and I was 45 minutes to soon thus paid the price. at 7 am CST did my zone test, then set my positions and watched the green pips growing, ignored the orange 7:45 CST FOMC orang report, which is usually a lackluster report, but today it was leaked and at 7:30 generated some movement. Over 30+ positions that's a lot of pips, going the wrong way. Then at 7:48 PA goes back toward the mean and green pips but too late for me. I have the day off now.

So I was right in my analysis but wrong, dead wrong in my application.

 
Rookie

So after this am's fiasco, I went to my interday account and bingo. AS Jackie Gleason would say It's so Sweet!

Stop Lunch time 1140 AM CST.JPG
 
alan_6

Today DXY Opened at 95.14 and tried to move higher but ended up rejecting higher prices. Currently, DXY is moving lower and is below its opening price. DXY is set to close near its low of the day. This price action is known as a Bearish Rejection candle. This price action is signaling a continuation of the daily downward trend of the US dollar which started yesterday.

 
rsbrady67

I need to monitor myself. I get myopic and forget to look at the other time charts during my trading of a particular pair. I also forget to go back to pairs that I think will have good conditions for trading later in the day or later in my trading session.

 
FXMantis

Hello All -

I've got to start mining more for gems like this!! I just "stumbled" across this thread, and after reading the first 10 or so posts, I realized that I need to spend a lot more time with the content. So, this will go into my "goody bag" for future reading.

Thank you all for your great input into this discussion about indices - pure GOLD!!!!

Back to my daily routine which, at this point, is.....SLEEP!!!

Take care,

Jerome Stone, aka - FXMantis

 
FXMantis

Hello All -

I've got to start mining more for gems like this!! I just "stumbled" across this thread, and after reading the first 10 or so posts, I realized that I need to spend a lot more time with the content. So, this will go into my "goody bag" for future reading.

Thank you all for your great input into this discussion about indices - pure GOLD!!!!

Back to my daily routine which, at this point, is.....SLEEP!!!

Take care,

Jerome Stone, aka - FXMantis

 
Rookie

FX, your great!

AS I give folks a hard time for no pudding, the attached I placed when I retired tonight and 4 hours later when I got up. 10:30 PM to 2:30 AM CST

Ironically the next DXY signal occurred at 1:30 AM to 2:30 AM CST, where was I> snoozing...::)))
------------------------
DXY this more is a green weighted alpha of 3.79% which is up a few bases points.
Barchart Technical Opinion
STRONG BUY
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Buy with a Strengthening short-term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.
----------------------------
So my job becomes waiting for the next setup and hopes I'm not snoozing. Still working getting alerts to work for me.

Enjoy the piping day!

The results equity bar.JPG
 
Mike Smith

@RNM

Why show the Equity: 20657.54? Is it funded or simulated?

 
sungodshaw8

Using DXY chart is very effective. DXY movement is very important for any trading like any Equitys, options, and forex pairs.

 
Rookie

Mike, I just cut and past the bar so naysayers can't say I'm hiding something, usually, folks are very quick to say how green the pips are but fail to show the unrealized. I this case I am using the same account and the equity shows the daily growth.

Sungod, you are so right. I didn't realize who much so until I started closely following the index.

--------------
Speaking which the DXY weighted Alpha just hit a green + 4.00
The bar chart opinion is unchanged at a 96% Buy and strong continuation.

However, when looking at my 1-minute DXY chart the PA is now pulling back from the +2% deviation indicating a trend change. which is confirmed by the CCI sloping strongly downward from on high to the zero line where it is wobbling.

Thus wanting some more sentiment information, I check the investing. com technical analysis for some low time frame weakening.
But still strong from 5M thru the 1 Day,

That means its time for lunch and a break for DXY finish the hula.

 
Rookie

WoW, DXY has moved to a 100% and a green +4.24 Weighted Alpha.
Traders this is better than Trump tweets! DXY is talk9ng to us to make hay while the sun shines.

Barchart Technical Opinion
STRONG BUY
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 100% Buy with a Strongest short-term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.